S&P Says Greek Default Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture


Time for the dominos to fall where they may: head of sovereign ratings at S&P Kraemer spoke on Bloomberg TV, and said the following:


And the punchline:


The only thing he did not add is that the default will be Coercive. What happens next is anyone's guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in. Also, let's not forget that the inability of the market to react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in.

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Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:33 | 2068712 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:42 | 2068747 johnu1978
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I sincerely hope you're right. This pussyfooting around with Greece's debt has gone on for a year too long!



Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:51 | 2068784 Chris Jusset
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Domino #1 is teetering and about to fall ...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:06 | 2068822 Oh regional Indian
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If the press wasn't there to fan it, if twitter didn't exist to be the bellows, if FB was FlessB... these alarming, electric headlines, spoutign from the mouths of known criminals (financial criminals at the very least)...

Greece will go without a whimper. March 20th, 21st this year again. What we are coming up to is Aquarius.... perhaps a big natural disaster, there are places wehre wierd weather has caused the possibility of huge flooding (In northern Europe), unprecedented snow-storms.....the warter cycle is broken. It should not feel like fall in the height of winter.

Look how much the Concodina event distracted. 

Aquarius comes with pitcher loaded. Then it will swing back to money, again nad as always...




Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:24 | 2068865 Irelevant
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel has sought to calm market nerves over a possible Greek debt default, saying the eurozone must stick together.

The collapse of Greece and its exit from the euro would have a domino effect, she told German radio.

Her comments came after reports that Germany was preparing for Greece to potentially leave the euro.

Mrs Merkel is now set to talk on Wednesday with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the Greek prime minister.

It was also revealed that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the so-called Brics group of emerging economies, were going to discuss how they could help the eurozone.

Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said finance ministers and central bank presidents from the five nations would discuss the eurozone debt crisis at a meeting on 22 September in Washington.

He said: "We're going to meet next week in Washington, and we're going to talk about what to do to help the European Union get out of this situation."

That was back in september 2011. So all were lies! What makes you think all they say about Italy, or Spain, are not lies?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:09 | 2069149 BigJim
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Look! Over THERE! It's Iran! And they're enriching Uranium* to 20%!!!!

*as per NPT terms, which states countries can enrich to 20%, and still be within treaty obligations... oh, never mind...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:31 | 2069214 Vampyroteuthis ...
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If they would have accepted the simple fact that Greece was bankrupt back in May 2010, the 50% haircut would have occurred and the CDS would have been paid off. Now, they will get NOTHING as the money runs out.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:45 | 2069252 Michael
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All I want to know is how much Greek debt will be discharged in bankruptcy?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:54 | 2069268 alex_g
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Eventually, all of it.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 16:40 | 2069350 The Big Ching-aso
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Hey, one would think this evade the authorities maneuver would be real big in Greece butt in Korea?..........



Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:50 | 2069908 BigJim
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Sound like terrorists to me!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:16 | 2069412 Ned Zeppelin
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No such thing as international bankruptcy court for sovereigns. The debt never goes away, it is merely unpaid for  the time being. As to what happens after that, anyone's guess.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:38 | 2069470 MsCreant
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If Greeks say they won't pay, who will make them?

I am surprised they don't argue the whole thing was arranged under dishonest pretenses and state flatly that they don't owe it as a result. All of them. All of us.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:52 | 2069913 BigJim
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Then NATO reminds Turkey that the Dodecanese were 'historically' theirs.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:10 | 2069808 invention13
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Isn't that what wars are for?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 23:40 | 2070093 Buck Johnson
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They know that Greece is about default and are trying to keep everyone calm, but it won't happen.  Because even a controlled default puts all Greeces debt bonds in limbo.  Because if they are defaulting on this particular debt, its assumed that the other debt is just as bad because if you can't pay this how can you pay that.  And then the domino effect of other countries that are in the same or worse condition economically as Greece and the implosion of banks that hold billions of this debt.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:08 | 2068824 johngaltfla
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They already have a back up plan in place to allow Greece to sell bonds and seize their nation's real estate as collateral:




The default is only a blip if that program does in fact get enacted.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:29 | 2068882 Jack Burton
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As many are saying in this new age of finance, you don't need armies to conquer and occupy a country. Territory can be gotten cleanly with some careful financial engineering. God help the money grubbers when people finally do flip out and go all nationalistic.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:33 | 2068894 Oh regional Indian
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Perhaps the government is counting on too many people being on the government teat for that to not happen. Largest food stocks are with the .govs worldwide.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 18:52 | 2069620 q99x2
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Laws..what enforceability do unjust laws have when the time is right to prosecute those that enact such laws?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:15 | 2068841 Caggge
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I won't believe Greece will default until I see the squid start talking that it's an investment opportunity of a lifetime. The aftermath of course will be their internal emails talking about what a piece of shit deal it is.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:08 | 2069145 Oh regional Indian
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Very nice video john. Will go through at length.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 22:01 | 2069941 gravedestruction
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johnu1978 - Interesting link - be checking it out a bit more later.

Curious - what double-eagle crest is that in the background?

It's similar to the Russian/Romanov double-eagle - is it Polish perhaps?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 01:28 | 2070231 ucsbcanuck
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Dude - that video was fine till 8:45. What are you trying to say?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:45 | 2068758 LawsofPhysics
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Yep, and NO CDS triggering.  Boring world indeed.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:50 | 2068778 Popo
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I think if we learned one thing from Lehman and Bear Stearns -- it's that Chaos theory applies.   No one can possibly foresee the outcome of the event in its entirety.   Everything is connected far too closely, and there is far too much leverage in the system for any event to be isolated or controlled.

While the propaganda machine will certainly go into overdrive trying to convince us all that Greece is a minor event and that there will be "no contagion" -- I think we can rest assured that nobody knows jack shit until after the default happens.   Chaos is extremely difficult to anticipate, calculate and control.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:55 | 2068791 tekhneek
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"Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought."

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:59 | 2068804 SheepDog-One
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One morning soon everyone will be 'shocked and surprised' by the carnage.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:05 | 2068818 tekhneek
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"I mean I don't know about you [anchor name here] but I don't think anyone could have seen this coming. Greek 1 year bonds were barely at 415% yields and the CDS spreads were neglible at best. I just don't understand what happened, do you?"

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:10 | 2068835 economics1996
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Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:06 | 2068819 Ceteris paribus
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As if !

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:55 | 2068795 GeneMarchbanks
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Concentrated risk, got it. But, Lehman ain't a country so I think the taboo factor is now gone. Anyone seen Portugal around?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:12 | 2068837 economics1996
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Bond yields 13.5% to 17%.  Any questions?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:58 | 2068803 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Can it wait 41 days?  Everyone wants to watch the Oscars one more time before we descend into absolute chaos.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:46 | 2068937 Oh regional Indian
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PS: LH, that is high praise ;-)

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:26 | 2069012 francis_sawyer
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Everyone wants to watch the Oscars one more time before we descend into absolute chaos...

Yeah, I can't wait for Sean Penn to stand up there and tell everyone how he's so happy that we finally have an "elegant man" as President, and for a room full of booger noses to stand up and applaud... That's always the highlight of my year...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 01:29 | 2069325 ucsbcanuck
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The highlight of 2011 was still Charles Ferguson:

Start at 2:16


Thanks Charles for saying it like it is. Oh and for US Patent 5,819,092.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:17 | 2069415 Ned Zeppelin
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People watch the Oscars?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:09 | 2068833 economics1996
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Pretty similar to war.  When the blood starts flowing, and people start dying, some come to the forefront, others are killed, and others hide.

The problem we have is we have the worst people in charge in both Europe and America.  Usually that means world war.  Let’s hope this is only a financial disaster.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:14 | 2068840 LawsofPhysics
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Blah Blah Blah, what is said by the MSM or anyone else won't mean shit.  What actually happens will.  Sort of like trying to foreclose on the entire state of California after all the folks have fortified their squatting positions in the houses and all the police and SWAT folks have been laid off.  Hey Mr. Banker, come and get it.  Chaos for the bankers maybe, everyone has been living in chaos for quite some time now.  Fucking bring it.  Chance always favors the prepared mind.  Always has, always will.  Wake the fuck up and don't be such a pussy.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:06 | 2069794 gravedestruction
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"Chance always favors the prepared mind."

How about the mind of a whacked out duck?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:39 | 2069872 StychoKiller
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How friendly are you with yer cygnus relatives?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:54 | 2069920 gravedestruction
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Dang ugly when they're young but I tend to prefer the older ones actually...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:57 | 2068789 The Big Ching-aso
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It's not deefault of the Greeks telling everyone & their stupid delusional 4th cousin to FO who lent them funny-munny expecting payback in something actually valuable like gold and islands.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:56 | 2068956 Elwood P Suggins
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For Greece it looks like default

No money left in the vault

For years they did borrow

Like there was no tomorrow

But that now comes to a halt

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:21 | 2068996 CrockettAlmanac.com
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This scans better:


For Greece it now looks like default,

No money is left in the vault.

For years they would borrow,

Like there's no tomorrow,

But now it's all come to a halt.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:18 | 2069169 BigJim
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Even geniuses can use an editor occasionally

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:57 | 2068959 gatorengineer
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Sorry guys, with LTRO, the Feds dollar liquidity program, and QE3 the banks will absorb a VOLUNTARY 75% haircut just like Mrs's O absorbs a triple bacon chease burger and a side of Chilli Cheese fries.  The show wont start in earnest until Belgium or Italy........

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:08 | 2068973 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture


I'll believe it when I see it, every two months for the last year the "game" was supposedly over. When you can change the rules as Sovereigns can and you have other Sovereigns(ehhem the US) complicit in your mess then you can keep the game going. Or they can just say fuck it, forget the rules, lets just change the whole game.   

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:33 | 2068713 nolla
nolla's picture

Aaand, EuroStoxx up 1.5% today.

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