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S&P Says Greek Default Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture


Time for the dominos to fall where they may: head of sovereign ratings at S&P Kraemer spoke on Bloomberg TV, and said the following:


And the punchline:


The only thing he did not add is that the default will be Coercive. What happens next is anyone's guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in. Also, let's not forget that the inability of the market to react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in.


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Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:33 | 2068712 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:42 | 2068747 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

I sincerely hope you're right. This pussyfooting around with Greece's debt has gone on for a year too long!



Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:51 | 2068784 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

Domino #1 is teetering and about to fall ...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:06 | 2068822 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

If the press wasn't there to fan it, if twitter didn't exist to be the bellows, if FB was FlessB... these alarming, electric headlines, spoutign from the mouths of known criminals (financial criminals at the very least)...

Greece will go without a whimper. March 20th, 21st this year again. What we are coming up to is Aquarius.... perhaps a big natural disaster, there are places wehre wierd weather has caused the possibility of huge flooding (In northern Europe), unprecedented snow-storms.....the warter cycle is broken. It should not feel like fall in the height of winter.

Look how much the Concodina event distracted. 

Aquarius comes with pitcher loaded. Then it will swing back to money, again nad as always...



Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:24 | 2068865 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has sought to calm market nerves over a possible Greek debt default, saying the eurozone must stick together.

The collapse of Greece and its exit from the euro would have a domino effect, she told German radio.

Her comments came after reports that Germany was preparing for Greece to potentially leave the euro.

Mrs Merkel is now set to talk on Wednesday with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the Greek prime minister.

It was also revealed that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the so-called Brics group of emerging economies, were going to discuss how they could help the eurozone.

Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said finance ministers and central bank presidents from the five nations would discuss the eurozone debt crisis at a meeting on 22 September in Washington.

He said: "We're going to meet next week in Washington, and we're going to talk about what to do to help the European Union get out of this situation."

That was back in september 2011. So all were lies! What makes you think all they say about Italy, or Spain, are not lies?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:09 | 2069149 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Look! Over THERE! It's Iran! And they're enriching Uranium* to 20%!!!!

*as per NPT terms, which states countries can enrich to 20%, and still be within treaty obligations... oh, never mind...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:31 | 2069214 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

If they would have accepted the simple fact that Greece was bankrupt back in May 2010, the 50% haircut would have occurred and the CDS would have been paid off. Now, they will get NOTHING as the money runs out.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:45 | 2069252 Michael
Michael's picture

All I want to know is how much Greek debt will be discharged in bankruptcy?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:54 | 2069268 alex_g
alex_g's picture

Eventually, all of it.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 16:40 | 2069350 The Big Ching-aso
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Hey, one would think this evade the authorities maneuver would be real big in Greece butt in Korea?..........


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:50 | 2069908 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Sound like terrorists to me!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:16 | 2069412 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

No such thing as international bankruptcy court for sovereigns. The debt never goes away, it is merely unpaid for  the time being. As to what happens after that, anyone's guess.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:38 | 2069470 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

If Greeks say they won't pay, who will make them?

I am surprised they don't argue the whole thing was arranged under dishonest pretenses and state flatly that they don't owe it as a result. All of them. All of us.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:52 | 2069913 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Then NATO reminds Turkey that the Dodecanese were 'historically' theirs.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:10 | 2069808 invention13
invention13's picture

Isn't that what wars are for?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 23:40 | 2070093 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They know that Greece is about default and are trying to keep everyone calm, but it won't happen.  Because even a controlled default puts all Greeces debt bonds in limbo.  Because if they are defaulting on this particular debt, its assumed that the other debt is just as bad because if you can't pay this how can you pay that.  And then the domino effect of other countries that are in the same or worse condition economically as Greece and the implosion of banks that hold billions of this debt.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:08 | 2068824 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

They already have a back up plan in place to allow Greece to sell bonds and seize their nation's real estate as collateral:


The default is only a blip if that program does in fact get enacted.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:29 | 2068882 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

As many are saying in this new age of finance, you don't need armies to conquer and occupy a country. Territory can be gotten cleanly with some careful financial engineering. God help the money grubbers when people finally do flip out and go all nationalistic.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:33 | 2068894 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Perhaps the government is counting on too many people being on the government teat for that to not happen. Largest food stocks are with the .govs worldwide.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 18:52 | 2069620 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Laws..what enforceability do unjust laws have when the time is right to prosecute those that enact such laws?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:15 | 2068841 Caggge
Caggge's picture

I won't believe Greece will default until I see the squid start talking that it's an investment opportunity of a lifetime. The aftermath of course will be their internal emails talking about what a piece of shit deal it is.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:08 | 2069145 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture


Very nice video john. Will go through at length.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 22:01 | 2069941 gravedestruction
gravedestruction's picture

johnu1978 - Interesting link - be checking it out a bit more later.

Curious - what double-eagle crest is that in the background?

It's similar to the Russian/Romanov double-eagle - is it Polish perhaps?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 01:28 | 2070231 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Dude - that video was fine till 8:45. What are you trying to say?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:45 | 2068758 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, and NO CDS triggering.  Boring world indeed.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:50 | 2068778 Popo
Popo's picture

I think if we learned one thing from Lehman and Bear Stearns -- it's that Chaos theory applies.   No one can possibly foresee the outcome of the event in its entirety.   Everything is connected far too closely, and there is far too much leverage in the system for any event to be isolated or controlled.

While the propaganda machine will certainly go into overdrive trying to convince us all that Greece is a minor event and that there will be "no contagion" -- I think we can rest assured that nobody knows jack shit until after the default happens.   Chaos is extremely difficult to anticipate, calculate and control.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:55 | 2068791 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

"Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought."

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:59 | 2068804 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

One morning soon everyone will be 'shocked and surprised' by the carnage.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:05 | 2068818 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

"I mean I don't know about you [anchor name here] but I don't think anyone could have seen this coming. Greek 1 year bonds were barely at 415% yields and the CDS spreads were neglible at best. I just don't understand what happened, do you?"

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:10 | 2068835 economics1996
economics1996's picture


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:06 | 2068819 Ceteris paribus
Ceteris paribus's picture

As if !

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:55 | 2068795 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Concentrated risk, got it. But, Lehman ain't a country so I think the taboo factor is now gone. Anyone seen Portugal around?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:12 | 2068837 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Bond yields 13.5% to 17%.  Any questions?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:58 | 2068803 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Can it wait 41 days?  Everyone wants to watch the Oscars one more time before we descend into absolute chaos.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:46 | 2068937 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture



PS: LH, that is high praise ;-)

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:26 | 2069012 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Everyone wants to watch the Oscars one more time before we descend into absolute chaos...

Yeah, I can't wait for Sean Penn to stand up there and tell everyone how he's so happy that we finally have an "elegant man" as President, and for a room full of booger noses to stand up and applaud... That's always the highlight of my year...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 01:29 | 2069325 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

The highlight of 2011 was still Charles Ferguson:

Start at 2:16

Thanks Charles for saying it like it is. Oh and for US Patent 5,819,092.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:17 | 2069415 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

People watch the Oscars?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:09 | 2068833 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Pretty similar to war.  When the blood starts flowing, and people start dying, some come to the forefront, others are killed, and others hide.

The problem we have is we have the worst people in charge in both Europe and America.  Usually that means world war.  Let’s hope this is only a financial disaster.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:14 | 2068840 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Blah Blah Blah, what is said by the MSM or anyone else won't mean shit.  What actually happens will.  Sort of like trying to foreclose on the entire state of California after all the folks have fortified their squatting positions in the houses and all the police and SWAT folks have been laid off.  Hey Mr. Banker, come and get it.  Chaos for the bankers maybe, everyone has been living in chaos for quite some time now.  Fucking bring it.  Chance always favors the prepared mind.  Always has, always will.  Wake the fuck up and don't be such a pussy.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:06 | 2069794 gravedestruction
gravedestruction's picture

"Chance always favors the prepared mind."

How about the mind of a whacked out duck?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:39 | 2069872 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

How friendly are you with yer cygnus relatives?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:54 | 2069920 gravedestruction
gravedestruction's picture

Dang ugly when they're young but I tend to prefer the older ones actually...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:57 | 2068789 The Big Ching-aso
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It's not deefault of the Greeks telling everyone & their stupid delusional 4th cousin to FO who lent them funny-munny expecting payback in something actually valuable like gold and islands.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:56 | 2068956 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture




For Greece it looks like default

No money left in the vault

For years they did borrow

Like there was no tomorrow

But that now comes to a halt

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:21 | 2068996's picture

This scans better:


For Greece it now looks like default,

No money is left in the vault.

For years they would borrow,

Like there's no tomorrow,

But now it's all come to a halt.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 15:18 | 2069169 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Even geniuses can use an editor occasionally

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:57 | 2068959 gatorengineer
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Sorry guys, with LTRO, the Feds dollar liquidity program, and QE3 the banks will absorb a VOLUNTARY 75% haircut just like Mrs's O absorbs a triple bacon chease burger and a side of Chilli Cheese fries.  The show wont start in earnest until Belgium or Italy........

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:08 | 2068973 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture


I'll believe it when I see it, every two months for the last year the "game" was supposedly over. When you can change the rules as Sovereigns can and you have other Sovereigns(ehhem the US) complicit in your mess then you can keep the game going. Or they can just say fuck it, forget the rules, lets just change the whole game.   

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:33 | 2068713 nolla
nolla's picture

Aaand, EuroStoxx up 1.5% today.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:36 | 2068731 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Greek default is priced in.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:46 | 2068763 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The entire european breakup and the end of the world in december are already priced in

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:50 | 2068777 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:01 | 2068811 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



Greece is being cheeky and resisting monetary molestation.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:31 | 2068892 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Everything is always "Already Priced in" "The markets are forward looking"

So why then does the turn of phrase "Nobody could have seen this coming" come up SO often??

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:42 | 2069876 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

People lie (a lot!)  Yer job is to figure out which statement is the lie...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:49 | 2068776 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Maybe they could beat the EU racketeers and have the last laugh.

Two simple steps..

1. Repudiate and default.

2. Introduce the Gold Drachma.

All they would have to worry about then is a NATO invasion.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:51 | 2068780 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yeah but the technocrats won't do that.  They only do what Goldman tell's them to.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2068714 BW
BW's picture

Start up the presses. 

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:39 | 2068738 BW
BW's picture

Excuse me, speed up the presses.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:41 | 2068746 bugs_
bugs_'s picture


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:44 | 2068757 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

HFP (High Frequency Printing)

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2068717 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

#define SHORTLY

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:41 | 2068742 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Shortly = the date on which the first of these events occurs:

(1) Greek bondholders walk away from PSI negotiations and indicate that they are not coming back

(2) PSI haircut becomes involuntary


(3) Greece misses €14bn bond repayment due on March 20th 

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:21 | 2068858 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Define 'tackled'.


As in 'We fixed the problem by printing fake money hoping to fool everybody'.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2068718 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Damn it! They've been saying this for MONTHS now. I guess by imminent he really means in like another couple of months.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2068719 bruce wayne
bruce wayne's picture

Finally, the first of many needed steps to fix Europe.  Hopefully this will usher in the end of the beginning so that we can finally deal with solutions to the problem rather than acting to put off the inevitable.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2068721 jabhagsb
jabhagsb's picture

Greece should get out already, issue their own currency and bomb anyone that won't accept it.  Works for America.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:43 | 2069883 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Bring forth the Spartans, and the Hoplites...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2068722 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Prepare for a NATO-led "humanitarian" invasion to preserve the assets for the pillagers.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:48 | 2068770 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A second hand acropolis with bad plumbing and some much need electrical maintenance for 2000 drachma anybody?
Ideal for starters with DIY skills!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:20 | 2068855 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Can the Acropolis be flipped ?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:44 | 2069888 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

From the shape it's in, it looks like it's been flipped several times already!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:35 | 2068724 l3lackout
l3lackout's picture

I don't understand the markets... downgraded FrAAnce, Spain, Italy.... Greece will probably defalut in the 1Q and Stocks are up?! yeah great news.... Anyone?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:38 | 2068733 navy62802
navy62802's picture

It isn't going to matter when/if there's a credit event. Europe will be decimated.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:00 | 2068810 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The corporations are destroying Nation-States.  This is the sole reason Rockefeller and Morgan came up with the Federal Reserve; so that they can control the world without the debt slaves having any say in what is to be done.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 16:40 | 2069353 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I doubt they were that prescient. I think they set up central banking to allow them to vastly increase their ability to expand the money supply without fear of bank runs. In their darkest fantasies they may have also foreseen all the graft this enabled, but they probably had no real idea how successful it would all be.

I'm sure they'd be absolutely amazed, astounded and DELIGHTED with what their descendants have managed to do.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:09 | 2068814 moonstears
moonstears's picture

navy, you've hit the nail on it's expound: IMHO tiny Greece is now the most powerful European currency holding nation. Print Drachmas, secretly of course, and (if they're doing this) continue to pine for Euro help, if ECB quits pumping them Euros, their (ECBs) Euros 'splode, if GREECE quits TAKING Euros, other countries will consider the same, again Euros 'splode! Damned if you do, damned if you don't! Now if the Euro craps out, does this mean all other currencies follow? Sure, maybe eventually, but how swiftly does this take place? Most folks will still see paper as wealth, and just look for better paper to hold, initially, IMO.


This from the cradle of Western civilization. They're (the unbought leadership of Greece, whoever they are) evidently much brighter than ECB bankers. JMHO

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:46 | 2069893 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

decimated = 1out of 10.  The werd you're looking for is "Devastated!"

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:39 | 2068739 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I believe the correct term is monestisation

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:49 | 2068772 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Don't forget portugal...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:46 | 2069895 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

How's that new Belgian Govt working out?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:00 | 2068809 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sudden destruction, 401K and pension holders will be left with the empty bag.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:35 | 2068725 Madcow
Madcow's picture

voluntary 80% haircuts - 


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:53 | 2068761 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'What happens next is anyone's guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in.'

No point in pretending. 100% go fuck yourselves since it's priced in an all...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:48 | 2068771 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

will eventually become voluntary decapitation

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:36 | 2068730 Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

Oops, a little typo there, Tylers....


"Also, let's not forget that the inability of the market to NEGATIVELY react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in."


There you go.  I got your backs.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:37 | 2068734 Fastback
Fastback's picture react to news?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:39 | 2068740 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

well if greece leaves the eurozone euro will rally although it still has the rest of the piss...oh sorry piis

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:41 | 2068745 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Futures are skying on this news.


U.S. Treasuries still well bid.

Looks like the bears are going to get smoked this week.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:22 | 2068862 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Quick !! get to the safe side of the Costa Concordia....before it tips over !

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:28 | 2068878 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Are they "skying" to "world record highs"?  What about "General Jim"?  You're slipping.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:01 | 2068967 Rodolfito
Rodolfito's picture

When you are a troll, you are completely free, and don't care what the group thinks of you. You can totally ignore you HUGE negative scores, because you did your job just as ordered.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:49 | 2069907 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

On the surface, the status quo looks just fine (but the termites feeding underneath, are STILL pretty hungry!)

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:42 | 2068748 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Now what the fuck

This has been fixed 6-7 times at the 19 or so G-6,8.20 meetings (at a collective cost that would bankroll Greece for at least a yr)

I'll take the over for ANOTHER last minute fix that will push this off for at least 3 mths



Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:49 | 2068775 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or not.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:56 | 2068798 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Options available are much narrower. Greece is in far worse shape and ECB credibility is further out on a limb. Someone has to get thrown under the bus this time

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:08 | 2068825 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

I'd love to see a stat that shows how much would have been saved if they let this log flush 18mths ago

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:42 | 2068749 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Unfortunately for the rest of the world, the Greek default is still 6 months overdue.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 16:48 | 2069368 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

When will it pop ?  It should be much bigger now and fully formed Demon on Earth.  Maybe the Costa Concordia bumped into the crack to Hades ?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:42 | 2068751 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

What happened to the March deadline? Did TPTB move it up?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:54 | 2068792 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

"What happened to the March deadline? Did TPTB move it up?"

The deadline is in March 15th but the paper work takes 5-6 weeks to complete so if this is not done by the end of January, KABOOOM muther phuckers, poor litte Jamie Dimon is going to have to figure out how to whore himself out for $50,000,000,000 (billion) in CDS payments- hahahaha eat shit bankster crooks.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:43 | 2068752 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I guess I don't understand the term imminent.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:10 | 2068826 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Imminent = December 21 when a spacecraft full with medieval Indians touches down in the center of Athens.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:42 | 2069072 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I'll make sure I'm well stocked with smallpox infested blankets, cheap whiskey, and promises from the Great White Chief.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:39 | 2068911 Agent P
Agent P's picture

They're just like regular M&Ms, only mint flavored.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:36 | 2069052 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's like a CERT... It's 2... two... TWO "minents" in one...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:43 | 2068754 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Very Bullish. Almost as Bullish as the nuclear Fuki disaster...or at least that's what Wall Streeters said.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:49 | 2068773 Monetative Easing
Monetative Easing's picture

Downgrade of France, Greece finally defaults.  Next on the list are Germany relenting followed by Eurobonds and the ECB printing.  Anyone who expects otherwise is foolish.  This is the only playbook they have - its the only way they know.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:51 | 2068785 surf0766
surf0766's picture

How about a UK downgrade just for kicks

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:06 | 2068820 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Thats 2014

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 16:50 | 2069373 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

When does Germany fess up they were "only kidding" around ?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:53 | 2068787 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

And then the Bernank decides to join the party with the Fed presses up and running. If he'll just give me six months, I will have everything worke dout for my family and me. What you want to bet that he gives me 5.5 months, and I'm screwed?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 17:56 | 2069508 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I'm hoping it can hold together till about April or May. I'm thinking I will be a couple of weeks off and I will be scrambling at the last minute, any way. Someone who owes me a lot of money may be bankrupt before I can get it. Etc.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:51 | 2068781 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

Crapatoa, the shit volcano!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:41 | 2068916 V in PA
V in PA's picture

Crapatoa... Priceless!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:27 | 2069842 gravedestruction
gravedestruction's picture

Don't forget about the 'imminent tsunami'...

Can you say 'soo-na-mee'?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:51 | 2068783 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:33 | 2068893 V in PA
V in PA's picture

Naked Roller Hockey!! Sign. Me. Up. :)

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:53 | 2068786 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's a big poker game now, but the stakes are getting mighty high. Some bettors are going to get hurt bad. And their losses will impact other dominos

We'll be living in the shadow of Friday the 13th for a long time. Suddenly reality is becoming a factor and it's depressing. Whatever the outcome of the Greece situation it will be very hostile with lots of red faces. 

I bet in the aftermath some big Euro banks will get nationalized. 

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 12:57 | 2068800 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everyones all-in, and thrown in the deeds to the house and the farm as well....I think the best hand anyone is holding is a pair of 2's.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:07 | 2068823 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

If only a few banks get nationalized, I think we will have been lucky as hell.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:28 | 2068872 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

And .... the banks of the Nile, and banks of Greece, and the banks off the Tuscany coastline of Italy.  Beautiful banks !!  Nationalize them all and sell to the highest bidders.  Maybe JPM will turn Greece into the Club-med Greece, for discriminating high-paying clients only.

(tragic play on words)

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:02 | 2068812 Martial
Martial's picture
Head Of UniCredit Securities Predicts Imminent End Of The Eurozone And A Global Financial Apocalypse


"A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe."..."Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.” In other words: welcome to the Apocalypse...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:52 | 2068950 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Man we are so cooked.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:06 | 2068821 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Time for a "Gut Check" for the bears.


1) European Indexes are all turning up off their lows and the Euro has a record short interest.

2) Gold is off the bottom and so is the CRB Index.

3) News flow is horrid yet the market doesn't care.

4) Companies are warning left and right, yet the stocks are shaking off the news.

5) Russell 2000, QQQ, and retail stocks are still leading the SPY.

6) Financial stocks have bottomed and are no longer getting sold off hard.

7) IBD Top 50 are all very strong and show no signs of topping or distribution.



Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:47 | 2068938 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Don't trade with your gut. Remember? 

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:13 | 2068987 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robo trades on his Etch'a'Sketch anyway, his real world called trades are the worst track record around.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:07 | 2068976 Rodolfito
Rodolfito's picture

You're working hard today, son. Are you on double-pay? Maybe we really are near something significant.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:23 | 2069003 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

He gets time and a half on holidays.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:10 | 2068828 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



Last few weeks I've been telling people "this could be the week the EU collapses and the Euro collapses".

It's obvious now time is about to run out for the EU and the Euro, as pointed out in this comment on an earlier article.

Got Deutschmarks?

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:09 | 2068830 AgK9
AgK9's picture

And, as a result, I see that European markets are awash in green (again).  Phew!  Thank god.  For a moment there I thought I might have to question my sanity.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:11 | 2068836 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

is debt the new oil?  should we invade Greece to siphon out that debt??

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:31 | 2068888 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

No just make Greece the new Club Med (TM) "islands".  Put some flashy marketing and major JPM or GS...and presto! there is a Santa.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:17 | 2068846 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

"They" will not let it happen, a Greek default. No default.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:49 | 2068942 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

But then they have to enforce drastic austerity on Greece's 9% deficit. And that slows the economy, lowering tax revenues, which makes the next bond issue even harder to finance and default risk back on. Check

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:18 | 2068850 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

But...if it can't be flipped its worthless (these days).  Carry on...full steam ahead and don't pay attention to the nearby shoals.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:22 | 2068859 bullnutz
bullnutz's picture

The Doc Interviews Jim Willie: UniCredit Failure is on Tap, Euro Debt Crisis, and Gold Disconnecting from Futures Markets.  So next on tap is UniCredit going bad, going bust, failing, turning to dust. And when that happens look for at least another couple Italian banks to also go bust. And when that happens look for the French banks to go bust. The three major French banks. Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale. And when that happens look for at least one or two London banks to go bust- they’re all inter-connected!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:24 | 2068869 Monetative Easing
Monetative Easing's picture

By the way, the ultimate irony for those people who keep saying that the European situation will not really affect the US is that when a Eurobond is launched, the US tresury market is going to get destroyed.  10yr notes may sell off 50-100 bps and that will take stocks down with it.   Not only will the European problems hurt the US, they will likely export their "problems" directly to the States. 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 02:50 | 2070328 the tower
the tower's picture

That's what happens if you export your inflation...

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:27 | 2068877 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Everyone had enough time to prepare. 


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:28 | 2068879 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Perhaps. But it is already priced in. Greek yields actually fell today after the alleged news on Greek's imminent default.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:36 | 2068904 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

Jim Willie is looking for this to take down UniCredit, and Will Result in a Dozen Western Bank Failures OVERNIGHT

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 14:10 | 2068984 Rodolfito
Rodolfito's picture

Thanks for the great site, Doc. I tried to post alot of times but I couldn't get it to work. Maybe I'm hitting the wrong buttons.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:43 | 2068927 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Cooked. But we all knew here this was coming. The fallout will be brutal.

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 21:37 | 2069867 gravedestruction
gravedestruction's picture

Those who have a concept of this that comes will certainly not be surprised and are indeed few in number.

I think LawsofPhysics hit the nail on the head: "Chance always favors the prepared mind."

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:45 | 2068933 mccoyspace
mccoyspace's picture

No problem. That proposed German ban on selling sovereigns will be extended to the whole EZ and the CDS default rules will be fudged again. Home by 5.


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:51 | 2068945 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Let's see, Dow gaps up Tuesday:

a. 100

b. 200

c. 300


Mon, 01/16/2012 - 13:51 | 2068946 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Let's see, Dow gaps up Tuesday:

a. 100

b. 200

c. 300


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