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S&P Says Greek Default Imminent
Time for the dominos to fall where they may: head of sovereign ratings at S&P Kraemer spoke on Bloomberg TV, and said the following:
- KRAEMER: GREECE, CREDITORS `RUNNING OUT OF TIME' IN DEBT TALKS -BBG
- KRAEMER: EURO LEADERS HAVEN'T TACKLED CORE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS -BBG
- KRAEMER SAYS EUROPE MUST DEAL WITH IMBALANCES, COMPETITIVENESS -BBG
And the punchline:
- KRAEMER SAYS HE BELIEVES GREECE WILL DEFAULT SHORTLY - RTRS
The only thing he did not add is that the default will be Coercive. What happens next is anyone's guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in. Also, let's not forget that the inability of the market to react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in.
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GAME OVER, SHORTLY....BITCHEZ!
I sincerely hope you're right. This pussyfooting around with Greece's debt has gone on for a year too long!
-John
http://www.youtube.com/johnu78
Domino #1 is teetering and about to fall ...
If the press wasn't there to fan it, if twitter didn't exist to be the bellows, if FB was FlessB... these alarming, electric headlines, spoutign from the mouths of known criminals (financial criminals at the very least)...
Greece will go without a whimper. March 20th, 21st this year again. What we are coming up to is Aquarius.... perhaps a big natural disaster, there are places wehre wierd weather has caused the possibility of huge flooding (In northern Europe), unprecedented snow-storms.....the warter cycle is broken. It should not feel like fall in the height of winter.
Look how much the Concodina event distracted.
Aquarius comes with pitcher loaded. Then it will swing back to money, again nad as always...
Watch...
ori
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/truth/
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has sought to calm market nerves over a possible Greek debt default, saying the eurozone must stick together.
The collapse of Greece and its exit from the euro would have a domino effect, she told German radio.
Her comments came after reports that Germany was preparing for Greece to potentially leave the euro.
Mrs Merkel is now set to talk on Wednesday with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the Greek prime minister.
It was also revealed that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the so-called Brics group of emerging economies, were going to discuss how they could help the eurozone.
Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said finance ministers and central bank presidents from the five nations would discuss the eurozone debt crisis at a meeting on 22 September in Washington.
He said: "We're going to meet next week in Washington, and we're going to talk about what to do to help the European Union get out of this situation."
That was back in september 2011. So all were lies! What makes you think all they say about Italy, or Spain, are not lies?
Look! Over THERE! It's Iran! And they're enriching Uranium* to 20%!!!!
*as per NPT terms, which states countries can enrich to 20%, and still be within treaty obligations... oh, never mind...
If they would have accepted the simple fact that Greece was bankrupt back in May 2010, the 50% haircut would have occurred and the CDS would have been paid off. Now, they will get NOTHING as the money runs out.
All I want to know is how much Greek debt will be discharged in bankruptcy?
Eventually, all of it.
Hey, one would think this evade the authorities maneuver would be real big in Greece butt in Korea?..........
http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpp/news/offbeat/men-arrested-for-smuggling-gold-in-rectums-011612
Sound like terrorists to me!
No such thing as international bankruptcy court for sovereigns. The debt never goes away, it is merely unpaid for the time being. As to what happens after that, anyone's guess.
If Greeks say they won't pay, who will make them?
I am surprised they don't argue the whole thing was arranged under dishonest pretenses and state flatly that they don't owe it as a result. All of them. All of us.
Then NATO reminds Turkey that the Dodecanese were 'historically' theirs.
Isn't that what wars are for?
They know that Greece is about default and are trying to keep everyone calm, but it won't happen. Because even a controlled default puts all Greeces debt bonds in limbo. Because if they are defaulting on this particular debt, its assumed that the other debt is just as bad because if you can't pay this how can you pay that. And then the domino effect of other countries that are in the same or worse condition economically as Greece and the implosion of banks that hold billions of this debt.
They already have a back up plan in place to allow Greece to sell bonds and seize their nation's real estate as collateral:
http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2012/01/15/the-enslavement-of-the-natio...
The default is only a blip if that program does in fact get enacted.
As many are saying in this new age of finance, you don't need armies to conquer and occupy a country. Territory can be gotten cleanly with some careful financial engineering. God help the money grubbers when people finally do flip out and go all nationalistic.
Perhaps the government is counting on too many people being on the government teat for that to not happen. Largest food stocks are with the .govs worldwide.
ori
Laws..what enforceability do unjust laws have when the time is right to prosecute those that enact such laws?
I won't believe Greece will default until I see the squid start talking that it's an investment opportunity of a lifetime. The aftermath of course will be their internal emails talking about what a piece of shit deal it is.
@Johnu
Very nice video john. Will go through at length.
ori
johnu1978 - Interesting link - be checking it out a bit more later.
Curious - what double-eagle crest is that in the background?
It's similar to the Russian/Romanov double-eagle - is it Polish perhaps?
Dude - that video was fine till 8:45. What are you trying to say?
Yep, and NO CDS triggering. Boring world indeed.
I think if we learned one thing from Lehman and Bear Stearns -- it's that Chaos theory applies. No one can possibly foresee the outcome of the event in its entirety. Everything is connected far too closely, and there is far too much leverage in the system for any event to be isolated or controlled.
While the propaganda machine will certainly go into overdrive trying to convince us all that Greece is a minor event and that there will be "no contagion" -- I think we can rest assured that nobody knows jack shit until after the default happens. Chaos is extremely difficult to anticipate, calculate and control.
"Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought."
One morning soon everyone will be 'shocked and surprised' by the carnage.
"I mean I don't know about you [anchor name here] but I don't think anyone could have seen this coming. Greek 1 year bonds were barely at 415% yields and the CDS spreads were neglible at best. I just don't understand what happened, do you?"
LMAO.
As if !
Concentrated risk, got it. But, Lehman ain't a country so I think the taboo factor is now gone. Anyone seen Portugal around?
Bond yields 13.5% to 17%. Any questions?
Can it wait 41 days? Everyone wants to watch the Oscars one more time before we descend into absolute chaos.
Zinggggggggggggggggggggggggg.......
ori
PS: LH, that is high praise ;-)
Everyone wants to watch the Oscars one more time before we descend into absolute chaos...
Yeah, I can't wait for Sean Penn to stand up there and tell everyone how he's so happy that we finally have an "elegant man" as President, and for a room full of booger noses to stand up and applaud... That's always the highlight of my year...
The highlight of 2011 was still Charles Ferguson:
Start at 2:16
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yB--kY3vsqE&feature=related
Thanks Charles for saying it like it is. Oh and for US Patent 5,819,092.
People watch the Oscars?
Pretty similar to war. When the blood starts flowing, and people start dying, some come to the forefront, others are killed, and others hide.
The problem we have is we have the worst people in charge in both Europe and America. Usually that means world war. Let’s hope this is only a financial disaster.
Blah Blah Blah, what is said by the MSM or anyone else won't mean shit. What actually happens will. Sort of like trying to foreclose on the entire state of California after all the folks have fortified their squatting positions in the houses and all the police and SWAT folks have been laid off. Hey Mr. Banker, come and get it. Chaos for the bankers maybe, everyone has been living in chaos for quite some time now. Fucking bring it. Chance always favors the prepared mind. Always has, always will. Wake the fuck up and don't be such a pussy.
"Chance always favors the prepared mind."
How about the mind of a whacked out duck?
How friendly are you with yer cygnus relatives?
Dang ugly when they're young but I tend to prefer the older ones actually...
It's not deefault of the Greeks telling everyone & their stupid delusional 4th cousin to FO who lent them funny-munny expecting payback in something actually valuable like gold and islands.
For Greece it looks like default
No money left in the vault
For years they did borrow
Like there was no tomorrow
But that now comes to a halt
This scans better:
For Greece it now looks like default,
No money is left in the vault.
For years they would borrow,
Like there's no tomorrow,
But now it's all come to a halt.
Even geniuses can use an editor occasionally
Sorry guys, with LTRO, the Feds dollar liquidity program, and QE3 the banks will absorb a VOLUNTARY 75% haircut just like Mrs's O absorbs a triple bacon chease burger and a side of Chilli Cheese fries. The show wont start in earnest until Belgium or Italy........
"GAME OVER, SHORTLY....BITCHEZ!"
I'll believe it when I see it, every two months for the last year the "game" was supposedly over. When you can change the rules as Sovereigns can and you have other Sovereigns(ehhem the US) complicit in your mess then you can keep the game going. Or they can just say fuck it, forget the rules, lets just change the whole game.
Aaand, EuroStoxx up 1.5% today.
The Greek default is priced in.
The entire european breakup and the end of the world in december are already priced in
Bullish!
Greece is being cheeky and resisting monetary molestation.
Everything is always "Already Priced in" "The markets are forward looking"
So why then does the turn of phrase "Nobody could have seen this coming" come up SO often??
People lie (a lot!) Yer job is to figure out which statement is the lie...
Maybe they could beat the EU racketeers and have the last laugh.
Two simple steps..
1. Repudiate and default.
2. Introduce the Gold Drachma.
All they would have to worry about then is a NATO invasion.
Yeah but the technocrats won't do that. They only do what Goldman tell's them to.
Start up the presses.
They already did that.
Europe Deposits Entire LTRO:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-banks-deposit-entire-ltro-and-then-some-ecb-deposits-approach-%E2%82%AC500-billion
Excuse me, speed up the presses.
LOL!
HFP (High Frequency Printing)
#define SHORTLY
Shortly = the date on which the first of these events occurs:
(1) Greek bondholders walk away from PSI negotiations and indicate that they are not coming back
(2) PSI haircut becomes involuntary
or
(3) Greece misses €14bn bond repayment due on March 20th
Define 'tackled'.
As in 'We fixed the problem by printing fake money hoping to fool everybody'.
Damn it! They've been saying this for MONTHS now. I guess by imminent he really means in like another couple of months.
Finally, the first of many needed steps to fix Europe. Hopefully this will usher in the end of the beginning so that we can finally deal with solutions to the problem rather than acting to put off the inevitable.
Greece should get out already, issue their own currency and bomb anyone that won't accept it. Works for America.
Bring forth the Spartans, and the Hoplites...
Prepare for a NATO-led "humanitarian" invasion to preserve the assets for the pillagers.
A second hand acropolis with bad plumbing and some much need electrical maintenance for 2000 drachma anybody?
Ideal for starters with DIY skills!
Can the Acropolis be flipped ?
From the shape it's in, it looks like it's been flipped several times already!
I don't understand the markets... downgraded FrAAnce, Spain, Italy.... Greece will probably defalut in the 1Q and Stocks are up?! yeah great news.... Anyone?
It isn't going to matter when/if there's a credit event. Europe will be decimated.
The corporations are destroying Nation-States. This is the sole reason Rockefeller and Morgan came up with the Federal Reserve; so that they can control the world without the debt slaves having any say in what is to be done.
I doubt they were that prescient. I think they set up central banking to allow them to vastly increase their ability to expand the money supply without fear of bank runs. In their darkest fantasies they may have also foreseen all the graft this enabled, but they probably had no real idea how successful it would all be.
I'm sure they'd be absolutely amazed, astounded and DELIGHTED with what their descendants have managed to do.
navy, you've hit the nail on it's head...to expound: IMHO tiny Greece is now the most powerful European currency holding nation. Print Drachmas, secretly of course, and (if they're doing this) continue to pine for Euro help, if ECB quits pumping them Euros, their (ECBs) Euros 'splode, if GREECE quits TAKING Euros, other countries will consider the same, again Euros 'splode! Damned if you do, damned if you don't! Now if the Euro craps out, does this mean all other currencies follow? Sure, maybe eventually, but how swiftly does this take place? Most folks will still see paper as wealth, and just look for better paper to hold, initially, IMO.
This from the cradle of Western civilization. They're (the unbought leadership of Greece, whoever they are) evidently much brighter than ECB bankers. JMHO
decimated = 1out of 10. The werd you're looking for is "Devastated!"
I believe the correct term is monestisation
Don't forget portugal...
How's that new Belgian Govt working out?
Sudden destruction, 401K and pension holders will be left with the empty bag.
voluntary 80% haircuts -
'What happens next is anyone's guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in.'
No point in pretending. 100% go fuck yourselves since it's priced in an all...
will eventually become voluntary decapitation
Oops, a little typo there, Tylers....
"Also, let's not forget that the inability of the market to NEGATIVELY react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in."
There you go. I got your backs.
Classic.....market react to news?
well if greece leaves the eurozone euro will rally although it still has the rest of the piss...oh sorry piis
Futures are skying on this news.
U.S. Treasuries still well bid.
Looks like the bears are going to get smoked this week.
Quick !! get to the safe side of the Costa Concordia....before it tips over !
Are they "skying" to "world record highs"? What about "General Jim"? You're slipping.
When you are a troll, you are completely free, and don't care what the group thinks of you. You can totally ignore you HUGE negative scores, because you did your job just as ordered.
On the surface, the status quo looks just fine (but the termites feeding underneath, are STILL pretty hungry!)
Now what the fuck
This has been fixed 6-7 times at the 19 or so G-6,8.20 meetings (at a collective cost that would bankroll Greece for at least a yr)
I'll take the over for ANOTHER last minute fix that will push this off for at least 3 mths
Sarc?
Or not.
Options available are much narrower. Greece is in far worse shape and ECB credibility is further out on a limb. Someone has to get thrown under the bus this time
I'd love to see a stat that shows how much would have been saved if they let this log flush 18mths ago
Unfortunately for the rest of the world, the Greek default is still 6 months overdue.
When will it pop ? It should be much bigger now and fully formed Demon on Earth. Maybe the Costa Concordia bumped into the crack to Hades ?
What happened to the March deadline? Did TPTB move it up?
"What happened to the March deadline? Did TPTB move it up?"
The deadline is in March 15th but the paper work takes 5-6 weeks to complete so if this is not done by the end of January, KABOOOM muther phuckers, poor litte Jamie Dimon is going to have to figure out how to whore himself out for $50,000,000,000 (billion) in CDS payments- hahahaha eat shit bankster crooks.
I guess I don't understand the term imminent.
Imminent = December 21 when a spacecraft full with medieval Indians touches down in the center of Athens.
I'll make sure I'm well stocked with smallpox infested blankets, cheap whiskey, and promises from the Great White Chief.
They're just like regular M&Ms, only mint flavored.
It's like a CERT... It's 2... two... TWO "minents" in one...
Very Bullish. Almost as Bullish as the nuclear Fuki disaster...or at least that's what Wall Streeters said.
Downgrade of France, Greece finally defaults. Next on the list are Germany relenting followed by Eurobonds and the ECB printing. Anyone who expects otherwise is foolish. This is the only playbook they have - its the only way they know.
How about a UK downgrade just for kicks
Thats 2014
When does Germany fess up they were "only kidding" around ?
And then the Bernank decides to join the party with the Fed presses up and running. If he'll just give me six months, I will have everything worke dout for my family and me. What you want to bet that he gives me 5.5 months, and I'm screwed?
I'm hoping it can hold together till about April or May. I'm thinking I will be a couple of weeks off and I will be scrambling at the last minute, any way. Someone who owes me a lot of money may be bankrupt before I can get it. Etc.
Crapatoa, the shit volcano!
Crapatoa... Priceless!
Don't forget about the 'imminent tsunami'...
Can you say 'soo-na-mee'?
Naked Roller Hockey!! Sign. Me. Up. :)
It's a big poker game now, but the stakes are getting mighty high. Some bettors are going to get hurt bad. And their losses will impact other dominos
We'll be living in the shadow of Friday the 13th for a long time. Suddenly reality is becoming a factor and it's depressing. Whatever the outcome of the Greece situation it will be very hostile with lots of red faces.
I bet in the aftermath some big Euro banks will get nationalized.
Everyones all-in, and thrown in the deeds to the house and the farm as well....I think the best hand anyone is holding is a pair of 2's.
If only a few banks get nationalized, I think we will have been lucky as hell.
And .... the banks of the Nile, and banks of Greece, and the banks off the Tuscany coastline of Italy. Beautiful banks !! Nationalize them all and sell to the highest bidders. Maybe JPM will turn Greece into the Club-med Greece, for discriminating high-paying clients only.
(tragic play on words)
"A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe."..."Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.” In other words: welcome to the Apocalypse...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-bbc-trader-head-unicredit-secur...
Man we are so cooked.
Time for a "Gut Check" for the bears.
1) European Indexes are all turning up off their lows and the Euro has a record short interest.
2) Gold is off the bottom and so is the CRB Index.
3) News flow is horrid yet the market doesn't care.
4) Companies are warning left and right, yet the stocks are shaking off the news.
5) Russell 2000, QQQ, and retail stocks are still leading the SPY.
6) Financial stocks have bottomed and are no longer getting sold off hard.
7) IBD Top 50 are all very strong and show no signs of topping or distribution.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9954053
Don't trade with your gut. Remember?
Robo trades on his Etch'a'Sketch anyway, his real world called trades are the worst track record around.
You're working hard today, son. Are you on double-pay? Maybe we really are near something significant.
He gets time and a half on holidays.
Last few weeks I've been telling people "this could be the week the EU collapses and the Euro collapses".
It's obvious now time is about to run out for the EU and the Euro, as pointed out in this comment on an earlier article.
Got Deutschmarks?
And, as a result, I see that European markets are awash in green (again). Phew! Thank god. For a moment there I thought I might have to question my sanity.
is debt the new oil? should we invade Greece to siphon out that debt??
No just make Greece the new Club Med (TM) "islands". Put some flashy marketing and major players...like JPM or GS...and presto! there is a Santa.
"They" will not let it happen, a Greek default. No default.
But then they have to enforce drastic austerity on Greece's 9% deficit. And that slows the economy, lowering tax revenues, which makes the next bond issue even harder to finance and default risk back on. Check
But...if it can't be flipped its worthless (these days). Carry on...full steam ahead and don't pay attention to the nearby shoals.
The Doc Interviews Jim Willie: UniCredit Failure is on Tap, Euro Debt Crisis, and Gold Disconnecting from Futures Markets. So next on tap is UniCredit going bad, going bust, failing, turning to dust. And when that happens look for at least another couple Italian banks to also go bust. And when that happens look for the French banks to go bust. The three major French banks. Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale. And when that happens look for at least one or two London banks to go bust- they’re all inter-connected!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/01/doc-interviews-jim-willie-unicredit.html
By the way, the ultimate irony for those people who keep saying that the European situation will not really affect the US is that when a Eurobond is launched, the US tresury market is going to get destroyed. 10yr notes may sell off 50-100 bps and that will take stocks down with it. Not only will the European problems hurt the US, they will likely export their "problems" directly to the States.
That's what happens if you export your inflation...
Everyone had enough time to prepare.
DO IT
Perhaps. But it is already priced in. Greek yields actually fell today after the alleged news on Greek's imminent default.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/16/france-sells-sovereig...
Jim Willie is looking for this to take down UniCredit, and Will Result in a Dozen Western Bank Failures OVERNIGHT
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2012/01/doc-interviews-jim-willie-unicredit.html
Thanks for the great site, Doc. I tried to post alot of times but I couldn't get it to work. Maybe I'm hitting the wrong buttons.
Cooked. But we all knew here this was coming. The fallout will be brutal.
Those who have a concept of this that comes will certainly not be surprised and are indeed few in number.
I think LawsofPhysics hit the nail on the head: "Chance always favors the prepared mind."
No problem. That proposed German ban on selling sovereigns will be extended to the whole EZ and the CDS default rules will be fudged again. Home by 5.
Let's see, Dow gaps up Tuesday:
a. 100
b. 200
c. 300
Let's see, Dow gaps up Tuesday:
a. 100
b. 200
c. 300