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S&P Is Second Rating Agency In One Day To Warn It Will Cut Hungary To Junk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today it was Fitch; now, way after the close, it is S&P's turn: the rating agency just put Hungary on junk bond watch, due an "unpredictable policy framework", and better yet, advised readers that the almost certain downgrade from Investment Grade would happen this month. Naturally, if Hungary, AAAustria is next. Then all of Eastern Europe follows quickly and Germany finds itself in a war with contagion on every single front.

From S&P

Republic of Hungary 'BBB-/A-3' Ratings Placed On Watch Negative Owing To The Unpredictable Policy Framework

Overview

  • In our opinion, the predictability of Hungary's policy framework continues to erode, weighing on the economy's medium-term growth prospects.
  • As a result, we are placing the 'BBB-/A-3' foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Hungary on CreditWatch with negative implications.
  • We are also placing the 'BBB-' long-term counterparty credit rating on the National Bank of Hungary on CreditWatch with negative implications.

Rating Action

On Nov. 11, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'BBB-/A-3' foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Hungary on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we placed the 'BBB-' long-term counterparty credit rating on the National Bank of Hungary on CreditWatch with negative implications.

Rationale

The rating action reflects our view that a more unpredictable policy environment, stemming from a weakening of oversight institutions and some budgetary revenue decisions, will have a negative effect on economic growth and government finances.

The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that downside risks to Hungary's creditworthiness are increasing as the external financial and economic environment is weakening. The risks are further amplified by what we consider to be weakening institutional effectiveness, which has been undermined by changes to the constitution and the functioning of some independent institutions, such as the Fiscal Council. This is likely to have a negative impact on fiscal planning and investment activity, which we believe will continue to weigh on Hungary's medium-term growth prospects.

In our view, the imposition of temporary taxes on various services sectors could constrain investment and job creation over the short term, while moves to facilitate households' prepayments of foreign-currency-denominated mortgages at concessional rates could further reduce the supply of credit to the economy. These measures will constrain growth prospects and may put the government's fiscal targets in jeopardy and could prevent a sustained reduction in general government debt levels.

CreditWatch

Resolution of the CreditWatch action is likely this month pending further information from the Hungarian government regarding how it will address the ongoing economic challenges.

 

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Fri, 11/11/2011 - 21:41 | 1871412 GenXer
GenXer's picture

"We're very big in Bulgaria. And what-his-name, the other -garia..."

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:11 | 1871451 Ancona
Ancona's picture

I guess that means we have some Sunday night theatre oi watch

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 04:43 | 1871829 shansnv
shansnv's picture

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skin tightening Sydney

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 09:55 | 1871961 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Hungary could become a lower case aitch. (Believe it or not, that is how you spell the letter "h")

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 11:47 | 1872066 redcorona
redcorona's picture

This couldnt have anything do with rising Hungarian nationalism and the democratic decision to exist as a Christian nation could it? I mean, it's not like there's some sort of international plutocracy comprised of judeo-bolsheviks that would use economic measures as a weapon, right?

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:42 | 1871495 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Francegaria?

Unites Stategaria?

Italygaria?

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 06:49 | 1871879 doggings
doggings's picture

Switzerland is heavily exposed to Hungary, via CHF denominated mortgage debt.

The outstanding stock of CHF-denominated residential mortgages in Hungary currently stands at about 16% of gross domestic product (GDP), and most of these loans were taken out at the HUF/CHF exchange rate of 150–170— significantly more favorable terms than the current market rates

 

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 18:06 | 1872542 covert
covert's picture

hungary used to be a great economy.

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 21:44 | 1871415 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

bonds=junk!

bitchez

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:12 | 1871452 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Quick, call Corzine!! I smell an investment opportunity.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 21:50 | 1871420 Oswald Spengler
Oswald Spengler's picture

Why is no one stating the obvious? The West is bankrupt. Countries cannot be bailed out because there is no capital left in the finacial system. The solution has already been worked out, but TPTB are taking their sweet time because the sheeple need to become innured to the idea that has been in the works for decades. OWO- One World Order.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 21:55 | 1871427 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

but, we still have checks...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:09 | 1871422 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

All of western Europe is junk too.  And America.

Any national government having to borrow money is junk status.   Ability to tax citizens isn't justification for AAA rating.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:22 | 1871557 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Ability to tax citizens isn't justification for AAA rating.

 

How about ability to tax foreign citizens? US is still the baddest military in the world. When shit hits the fan, country with strongest and smartest military will rule.

 

China can't do shit because they are still copying US military secrets.

 

 

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 00:05 | 1871608 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

AldousHuxley posited:

When shit hits the fan, country with strongest and smartest military will rule.

Empires have always fallen back on that strategy; it falls apart when the military stops getting paid.

 

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 02:13 | 1871753 jez
jez's picture

Yeah, I was thinking that. How many wars can you run simultaneously?

In other news, I see that dead US cannon fodder is now being used as landfill. Dunno if this would be a good example of the "smartest military" the poster was talking about:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-warned-about-landfill-issue-months-ago/2011/11/11/gIQAdLWbCN_story.html
Sat, 11/12/2011 - 04:54 | 1871834 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

US is still the baddest military in the world.

It won't matter when USD loses WRC status.  America will collapse virtually overnight, and that "badass" military will be left stranded at hundreds of bases all over the world.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 06:41 | 1871875 doggings
doggings's picture

lol @ the strongest baddest military with no ability to buy oil for their toys with useless green paper anymore.  fish in a barrel.  

they had better win the currency war that is already underway first, or the strongest baddest military in the world will all be making it's way home, pissed off. 

good luck with that.

 

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 06:41 | 1871876 oldman
oldman's picture

Aldous,

Now, this is truly 'stating the obvious'.

This is the reason that there was never, until recent times, a rating on US Treasury debt; it was understood by all that the US military was the AAA and therefore the debt was unnecessary to rate. The bond market always talked this up among themselves in the 'old days'---I remember it well from 1979-1984. It was one of the reasons we attacked Grenada---a show of force'.

thanks for the memory              om

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 11:49 | 1872070 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

AldousHuxley... You might want to consider who is making US Military hardware and what parts are being used... China is using good parts in their equipment and fake parts in American equipment...

"Counterfeit Electronics Parts Threaten Our Troops and Our Security"

"The following information was released by Michigan Senator Carl M. Levin:

Earlier this year, the Senate Armed Services Committee, which I chair, began an investigation of counterfeit electronic parts finding their way into the systems that our military uses to defend us. We recently held our first hearing to look at what our investigation has discovered so far, and what we have found will shock the American public.

There is a flood of counterfeit electronic parts entering the defense supply chain. It is endangering our troops and costing us a fortune. And the overwhelming share of these counterfeits comes from one country: China.

Here is some of what we have found:"Looking at just a slice of the defense contracting universe, the committee reviewed 1,800 cases of electronic parts suspected to be counterfeit. Those 1,800 cover more than 1 million individual parts. Now, 1 million parts is surely a huge number, but remember, weve only looked at a portion of the defense supply chain. Those 1,800 cases are just the tip of the iceberg."...

See rest of link here... http://www.militaryaerospace.com/index/display/wire-news-display/1539432306.html

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 21:53 | 1871426 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

But markets closed up once again. I doubt if our generation will live to see the triumph of the fundamentals. :(

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:16 | 1871459 winning
winning's picture

I'm starting to think the markets have it right, and the reason they want to move hgher is they know the eventual outcome of this... ---> print.. the west is going to print its way out of this.. hyper inflation.. its the solution for the real estate depression and massive debts ... and it will drag stocks higher, much higher... granted it will cost $1,000 for a gallon of gas, and $2,000 for a gallon of milk, and your savings will be worthless, but dont worry your stocks will be a little higher ... 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:36 | 1871485 HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

Unless the printed money is directed directly to stocks, inflation is bad for them (especially discretionary and service sector stocks). You just have to watch where the DOW went during the 70's. 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:55 | 1871513 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

+1 for satire.

WE LOVE YOU, HAMY!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:41 | 1871491 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

... and RoboTrader will be happy.   He doesn't have to buy gas (no car) nor milk (lives off mom's soc sec / welfare / TANF / food stamps).

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:59 | 1871519 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

 you are cranky.  but not necessarily a crank

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:04 | 1871438 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

 

Meanwhile in a universe, far, far away:


Chinese ratings agency threatens US with new debt downgrade

 

The head of China's biggest ratings agency, Dagong Global Credit Rating, is warning that it may downgrade the US's sovereign debt rating again because of Washington's failure to tackle the federal budget deficit.

"The measures available to them [the US] cannot be effective so they have another way out which is to depreciate the US dollar, to print more money," he says. "And that will also make it a lot worse, this has affected their credit and it is negatively affecting their credit prospects – so that their overall ability to pay back their debt will continue to go down.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/12/chins-threatens-us-with-new-debt-downgrade


Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:10 | 1871448 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Takes one, to know one."

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:33 | 1871480 max2205
max2205's picture

I gues it makes cents to downgrade the country that owes you 3 Trillion USD. DOESNT IT?!

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 11:56 | 1872079 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Justobserving... I was going to post this info and was scrolling through to see if someone had posted it already...

Nice catch. +1

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:07 | 1871445 1000pips
1000pips's picture

So, will they still serve Golosh?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:07 | 1871446 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I don't know.

I see this as quite bullish.

I mean, at least The Maldives aren't a downgrade target.

Could be worse.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:12 | 1871455 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

The Maldives will probably make it another year, or two, before they're Seriously Underwater.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:14 | 1871458 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Big ups sleepy Hapsburgs Austro-Hungarian Empire stepping up stirring up shit on the big boys stage.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:27 | 1871473 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

How can this not be a bad dream by now for the Germans?  Nearly 100 years ago they were lefting holding the bag on a war where they were more and more surrounded.  The Austro-Hungarian Empire did little to help them.  A Hail Mary pass got Russia out of the war and bought some time for the Germans.  Then Luedendorff bled the army white.

The Germans left the war with their strength sapped to almost nothing but were still able to instill in their population the Stab in the Back theory.  This made the Germans believe that they had not actually lost The War to End All Wars. 

How will the person after Merkel convince the Germans that they could have won if only they hadn't been sold out? 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:27 | 1871476 ACP
ACP's picture

Darn, so the rally next week will be only 99 handles on the spooooooozh, as opposed to 100.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:28 | 1871477 max2205
max2205's picture

I rated it as Junk two years ago. These guys are really slow....

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:35 | 1871482 Kina
Kina's picture

Why is MarketWatch showing EU/USD 0.6928  -0.6827

Down 49.63%

??

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/EURUSD

 

Not yet you guys, not yet.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:39 | 1871489 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Targets for Monetary Policy in Coming Year

 

While your scrolling thru history, turn on your speakers and enjoy…

 

Mozart - (Requiem Mass in D Minor)

 

Repeating the same playbook rules has become mundane for most. Wonder how the elected soles convincing the masses reflect on their failure each evening? My guess.. humiliation and despair fill the minds of false authority. The best fruit is always found at the top of the tree. LOL @ the newly elected fucksticks.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:41 | 1871492 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And when do they man up and downgrade America to junk? And France to BBB?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 22:54 | 1871510 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Geithner laid down the law:

Geithner: No Risk U.S. Will Lose AAA Credit Rating - EVER

Message was lost in translation to chinese

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:03 | 1871527 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

he is a law unto himself.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:07 | 1871535 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I bet he didn't say that to a crowd of Chinese college students.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 00:23 | 1871630 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

He's catching on fast ...

 

Timothy F. Geithner, said today: “The crisis in Europe remains the central challenge to global growth. It is crucial that Europe move quickly to put in place a strong plan to restore financial stability.”

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:10 | 1871543 SlipperyPete
SlipperyPete's picture

Hungary is the least of the problems.

Less debt than most.  Less budget deficit than most.  They ARE willing to skin the population to implement austerity and control their own currency

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 03:03 | 1871780 compound interest
compound interest's picture

+1. I can back that up. Hungary is not in good shape, and it always used to push its luck. But now real austerity is happening there, its debt has decreased recently (it is at about 70-77% of GDP, but in absolute terms it's about 1/3 of the greek debt), and the budget deficit is at around 3%, and the government is really focused on not to let the deficit run out of control again. Now it is really under control.

The currency is under control, too, no sign of intention of monetary easing. But it should stay that way! A small country like this can't get into the money-printing currency war, should stay out of it. The only thing Hungary SHOULD NOT do under any circumstances is monetary easing for short-term gains.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 04:02 | 1871810 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

But they changed laws to make the CB less independent and they allow citizens to repay CHF loans using a "discounted" rate (which is involuntarily paid for by local and foreign banks who did not profit from the stronger CHF). And they did a bunch of other weird shit.
It is not working and no wonder they call them unpredictable.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 04:47 | 1871832 compound interest
compound interest's picture

you are right. but even this "rogue" gov't (by EU standards) recognized the gravity of the debt, and the need for reducing and keeping the deficit low at any cost. the deficit is the growth rate of the debt, and even the hungarian PM knows that. Hungary is the country that pushes its luck all the time, but does what's right in the last minute. this country has played it many times.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 08:23 | 1871901 AUD
AUD's picture

Is that why Hungary has the record for the number & severity of hyper-inflations?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:16 | 1871551 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

"while moves to facilitate households' prepayments of foreign-currency-denominated mortgages at concessional rates could further reduce the supply of credit to the economy."

WHAT A JOKE...

...This is just like my bank telling me to raise my credit score by establishing "revolving credit."

This downgrade threat is punitive to punish Hungarians for giving the banks a haircut on mortgage liabilities.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:44 | 1871581 Element
Element's picture

A bit more of this panic and crisis and we should see their ready-made sensible and convenient 'solutions' pop-up soonish ...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 23:49 | 1871586 SlipperyPete
SlipperyPete's picture

If the US is AAA, I dont see why Hungary shouldnt be.

(Now if you tell that they all should be junk.... I can go along with that)

You can use any metric you want and Hungary is in better shape

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 01:19 | 1871716 Don Smith
Don Smith's picture

If I recall Germany's record in fighting multi-front wars is not so good...

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 10:35 | 1871987 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I think it went something like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6CogMAUS7E

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 03:16 | 1871788 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I am Hungary for some Turkey fried in Greece.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 03:38 | 1871800 compound interest
compound interest's picture

documentary video at vbs.tv on the greek riots:

http://www.vice.com/vice-news/teenage-riot-athens-1

You should click on the player to turn the language onto english so you will see the subtitles under the greek speech. Part 2 and 3 are also on the site.

everyone should see. It really brings you close how it feels to be in Athens. I had the thought while watching this that communist ideology may return in some form in the 21st century, because these riots don't have any ideology, and people need some form of ideology. Human mind needs something to be filled with. This video on the Athens rioters show that this rebellion is not a political movement, because they don't really have demands on how they would like to see the government running the economy. These people don't know what they want to do with the situation, they don't have a clue, they haven't started figuring out how they will grow their own food and product their own goods for themselves yet, they are just angry. Very angry. This is the riot of the masses against the elite. There's a graffiti on the wall in the university campus near the Athens city centre (which is the center of the student rioters): EAT THE RICH. Exactly. Watching this video makes you imagine how it feels like to be living in a failed state. It feels very close. It feels very close even in Western European countries, Britain, USA, too. The anti-capitalist motivation is the factor which can bring back some form of communist ideology into the 21st cent. Europe, I think. The only thing which connects all these rioters: they are poor, know exactly they will get even poorer in the short run without any hope of the situation improving some time in the foreseeable future, and they are angry at the rich, because the rich will stay rich even in a failed state, or simply just move away. It is the poor against the rich. It is like a clash of the classes. Happened many times in the history, but not in our lifetime's Europe.

(Don't get me wrong, I am not supporting any communist / Marxist / Maoist ideology. But I can imagine and I can understand if it comes back somehow, some place.. )

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 11:35 | 1872050 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

(Don't get me wrong, I am not supporting any communist / Marxist / Maoist ideology. But I can imagine and I can understand if it comes back somehow, some place.. )

Hmm, anything but acknowledge that you're responsible for your own life...  Envy is STILL one of the seven deadly Sins.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 05:08 | 1871840 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Oh the irony! While raters have finally been downgrading eurozone sovereigns, they've been upgrading many of the eastern european and Baltic sovereigns apparently after heavy KoolAid drinking. Seems that they have learned NOTHING at all.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 06:26 | 1871867 bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

http://www.dawn.com/2011/11/12/europe-to-tighten-screws-on-ratings-agenc...

BRUSSELS, Nov 11: The European Union plans to tighten the screws on rating agencies in a raft of new proposals including judicial action, issued amid concern over Standard and Poor`s erroneous downgrade of France.

 

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 09:45 | 1871954 butchee
butchee's picture

Paprika standard?

Sun, 11/13/2011 - 04:37 | 1873314 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

LOL!!! :-)

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 11:32 | 1872032 Sziget
Sziget's picture

I'm Hungarian and I can tell u everything S&P writes is true. Our goverment doesn't have a slightest clue about economy or even math. Their first act -when they get elected in 2010- was a 16% flat income tax which made a huge hole in the budget. Then our PM went to Brussel and asked if we could run a 7% deficit, of course he got LOLed hard. Next thing was confiscating the private retriment funds. And so on so on, same shit running since then. Now we have 27% VAT, taxes on everyting, and a corrupt government.

The CHF based mortgage situation is pretty simple, austrian banks went long on CHF and told Hungarian people to go long on forint. Its a simple fraud.

edit+:

My grandfather was the favourite guest in bars in 1946 because he used gold chain and a pinchers as wallet. They come handy soon again I think.

Sun, 11/13/2011 - 04:41 | 1873317 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Orban is a populist. They should have never ever ever taxed more foreign companies here than the Hungarians have to pay. That's where they went into the wrong direction. Oh and yeh, that pension change was a big mistake to.

I'd love to see the downgrades! Bring it on! I had many rude chats with friends who have no idea how bad this governement actually is. I told them to watch when the rating agencies start to downgrade Hungary. Just watch how dependent Hungary really is. 

Sun, 11/13/2011 - 07:03 | 1873391 alwaystoolate
alwaystoolate's picture

I am Hungarian too, and I can tell you that some of what S&P writes is true. However, this is just a small - not even relevant - part of the story. Look at the naked numbers. If Hungary is junk, then more than half of the Western countries should be junk as well

I was never a fan of Orbán. Only after the daring macro steps taken recently I became one. Yes, it is risky, but far better than taking the Greek way.

Giving Hungary an incredible bad press and downgrading it is just part of the crusade against a disobedient small country. What a disgrace!! The rating agencies lost all their credibility long time ago.

And you dear Sziget and Hungarianboy are just 2 brainwashed, small-thinking members of the mainstream sheeple.

Sun, 11/13/2011 - 07:03 | 1873392 alwaystoolate
alwaystoolate's picture

I am Hungarian too, and I can tell you that some of what S&P writes is true. However, this is just a small - not even relevant - part of the story. Look at the naked numbers. If Hungary is junk, then more than half of the Western countries should be junk as well

I was never a fan of Orbán. Only after the daring macro steps taken recently I became one. Yes, it is risky, but far better than taking the Greek way.

Giving Hungary an incredible bad press and downgrading it is just part of the crusade against a disobedient small country. What a disgrace!! The rating agencies lost all their credibility long time ago.

And you dear Sziget and Hungarianboy are just 2 brainwashed, small-thinking members of the mainstream sheeple.

Sun, 11/13/2011 - 07:01 | 1873389 alwaystoolate
alwaystoolate's picture

I am Hungarian too, and I can tell you that some of what S&P writes is true. However, this is just a small - not even relevant - part of the story. Look at the naked numbers. If Hungary is junk, then more than half of the Western countries should be junk as well

I was never a fan of Orbán. Only after the daring macro steps taken recently I became one. Yes, it is risky, but far better than taking the Greek way.

Giving Hungary an incredible bad press and downgrading it is just part of the crusade against a disobedient small country. What a disgrace!! The rating agencies lost all their credibility long time ago.

And you dear Sziget and Hungarianboy are just 2 brainwashed, small-thinking members of the mainstream sheeple.

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 12:33 | 1872118 natty light
natty light's picture

/test

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 12:58 | 1872123 natty light
natty light's picture

/?

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 12:49 | 1872140 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

My first glance at the title was "S&P is SECOND RATE agency in one week" ... lol

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 12:57 | 1872155 natty light
Sat, 11/12/2011 - 13:13 | 1872166 natty light
natty light's picture

sorry guys for testing my html skills here

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 13:12 | 1872177 natty light
natty light's picture

<>

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!