S&P Warning Of Imminent Greek Default Again, But Promises All Shall Be Well, Dallara Speaks

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just a week over the last time S&P said Greece would likely default any second, it reminds us once again why we should care.

  • GREECE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WOULD QUALIFY AS A DEFAULT: CHAMBERS
  • S&P'S CHAMBERS SAYS IT'S NOT GIVEN THAT GREECE DEFAULT WOULD HAVE DOMINO EFFECT IN THE EURO ZONE

Perhaps just as irrelevant if notable is that S&P basically said just that back on May 9, 2011. As for Greece, it is a given that if the country proceeds with CACs it will default. Period. And yet that is just what will happen. However a far bigger question, as we touched on yesterday, is what happens next, when Portugal decides to follow the same framework of "deleveraging" only to find that courtesy of having strong creditor protection bonds it can't? Or when the Troika figures out that due to strong negative pledges, the country's balance sheet can not be primed and thus subordinated, and thus is ineligible for secured financing. And what happens when Europe realizes that Portugal is ineligible for saving in the conventional sense? Or Spain? and so forth.

Finally, here is Dalarra's long awaited commentary on the progress of the Greek exchange offer, via Bloomberg.

  • IIF'S DALLARA SAYS INDICATED 50% HAIRCUT ON NOMINAL CLAIMS
  • IIF'S DALLARA CALLS ON ALL PARTIES TO HONOUR THAT AGREEMENT
  • IIF'S DALLARA PRIVATE CREDITORS HOLD 60% OF GREEK GOVT DEBT
  • IIF'S DALLARA SAYS REMAINING GREEK DEBT IS IN OFFICIAL HANDS
  • IIF'S DALLARA SAYS IMPORTANT ISSUES OF BURDEN SHARING ARISING
  • IIF DALLARA SAYS GREEK EFFORTS SOMETIMES NOT FULLY APPRECIATED

In Europe beggars no longer can be choosers:

  • DALLARA SAYS A LOT RIDING ON RESOLVING GREECE COOPERATIVELY

Translation: the future of Europe is in the hands of a few good hedge funds. As predicted on Zero Hedge last June.

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Tue, 01/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2092026 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

I don't care what the ECB says, everyone will find out soon enough that sovereign lending is inherently unsecured.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:00 | 2092038 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Same old trick - they have gun to the head of all citizens of the EU and are yelling...

"We mean it... we will let Greece default and you will all be wiped out,... or you can support the ESM we passed in secret last night. Your choice..."

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:07 | 2092058 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's imminent.....and this time we're really really serious about it.

 

Consider this.....double secret probation.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:16 | 2092124 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Those hedge funds are who own the golden CDS are never going to cave in for a 70 % haircut minus a credit event. This is the Greek gov't and big banks desperately trying to suck more money out of EU taxpayers before the turnip is dry. Greece will default by the weekend. Game over.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:37 | 2092468 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I don't think the Hedge Funds have a choice over whether or not it happens. They may be able to decide when to take their medicine, but Greece will default.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 15:18 | 2093508 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Let´s shoot them

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:04 | 2092051 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Can ZH name exactly which hedge funds are holding Greek debt with the aim of becoming the "nuisance" that triggers the oncoming disaster?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2092078 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Yes

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:10 | 2092084 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Greek standoff. Don't blink.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:11 | 2092093 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Will it? nm

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:14 | 2092107 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Tyler - and the winners will be?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:25 | 2092152 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Vega Asset Management, Och Ziff, York Capital, GreyLock Asset Management, Saba Capital and Marathon Asset Management 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:15 | 2092114 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Both Och-Ziff and York Capital Management have denied they have material holdings in Greek debt.  

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:25 | 2092174 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Only one name matters: Elliott

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:32 | 2092215 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If Elliott is involved, we can expect:

a.) extensive and costly litigation

b.) demands for past due interest

c.) exposure of corruption of Greek state and possibly the EU

Correct?

Nice. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:51 | 2092283 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Again paraphrasing Stalin:  How many divisions do the hedgies command?

The rule of law is over boy and girls all that remains is the veil of normalcy.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:32 | 2092449 CPL
CPL's picture

plus the massive exposure the Canadian government allowed during the time of the super banks.  Canada didn't get their superbank mechanisms because of political pressure, they did however get to help underwrite the EU as a conciliatory prize.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 13:53 | 2093106 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Elliot Ness! I knew he was back, now all we need is J Edgar and then those Greeks will all eat pasta like the spaghetti balls of Brooklyn. When a Ness meets a real mess its the best of both worlds, a haircut for one side of mess and a lobotomy for the other.

"Ya takes ya pick for each end of tha stick." J Edgar is not mashing his metaphors.  "Now go find Lula Sue, Elliot, before she burns the dago geeks up tha creek. We have our marching orders from Ben."

"I hear ya boss, and I'm on my way; just be patient and keep your cotton pickin fingers outa my hair, I ain't one of your pansy shoe shiners." He sounds pissed as hell, as he shuffles off to seedy side looking for Lula Sue,  cat on a wild side binge kooky.

Its a clinch play and Mickey S is on the make as the night growls with the sound of slimy Ben and Slinky Christine soul singing aloud in unison:  the world needs more loving, donate generously to late nite American idol... While the Earl of Shady side prophecies,

"Its da end of the world" on CNN.

Its a murky nite, a starless mush, still as a foreclosured Detroit suburb,  when you don't want to walk on sleezy side, the bands of coke pushers ready to rumble at slightest stumble. 

He's got a job to do as the hit is planned for the night. He's on the prowl and he sees her snake up to him, her gossamer pants ablaze. She's no slouch so he won't say ouch when she grinds her stacatto heal into his mocassined foot. Dandy man and candy dame. The game is on and he aint gone lame. 

"Don't short me brother, there is a lot at stake and I need that shaker. And how!"  Says Lula Sue from HF Galore. She likes the bait of a stranger in the nite from late show, as fleeting, husky, tusky bull mate. 

"Don't stake me sister my nuts won't take that kind of pressure." Mickey wants his action right up front.

This is three card Monti but its not Carlo Ponti whose paying him, its the Sage from Omaha, but nobody knows that yet. 

"If that femme fatale gets her hooks on me I'm toast." Murmurs Mickey.  "I'm behind schedule. But I need the heat as my meat is freeze dried and awol since over a month."

He hears the little voice whisper in his ear; "You're better off hooked by her, than in the IMF meat house, or cooked raw by J Edgar. I know ya gotta a job to do, but life is short fella!"

She is now coming on strong. "Come sing it to me one more time, Sailor. My cooker is heaven as its on remote control. See my hands are free!"

Lula Sue wants his act on, risk off,  in her sack.

Mickey has his 38 primed and ready. Sue still has her hat on but the rest is all for grabs. He's got the crabs now crawling up his legs. She snakes enticingly like rhythming to jazz on golden horn and hard clear eyes him so bad, he's goosepimpled at seeing her so blazingly hard nippled. 

"Lula Sue, honey, Don't tempt me. You be true, but I feel blue as I know that you know I won't short you. Yet you play so hard to get. Now that I want to lay you to rest. I'll nail you like that Apache, pale rider, high plains drifter, with one arrow. If you'll let me. I'm ready to dance with the wolves." 

"Go long Sailor, I'll sail all the way to Frisco with you."

They make it out and its a knock out round.

Enter the conspirators. They can't believe the sight. She taken her hat off!

"What up?" Snorts Elliot.

"Go grab it if its up" Growls J Edgar. "Forget the foreplay just grab the meat and we'll have our bird in Sing Sing."

"This isn't a dyke like that IMF kite, this isn't a dago like that DSK shill, this is mighty Mickey and he's all american, like ketchup. Is he on the Company list as well?"

"Shadup Elliot, I say we grab him, as he'll lead us to Earl Shady, the big shill. Take her too. She's tha singin canary in the coal shaft. I wan her bad on my  trophy rack, tits n all, platinum blonde. She runs this whole crazy dago shooting match. We have our brief from shady Ben. We gotta get em both for the Company."

"I hear ya J Edgar, and I ain't gonna chicken out on this deal even if he pokes me in the eye with his bazooka."

"Ha eat ya heart out, Pilgrim, his gun is not for hire, its all afire and cooking in my honey bun. So go take a walk, go jump in the lake with your kinky Boss man. I say cool it while I get my bonus up front." Lula Sue ain't impressed in these trying moments as she goes long on Mickey's soaring alpha stock.

"Lula Sue, you be one mean HF queen, hat or not hat on, I do declare." Snorts J Edgar. "By God, I've a good mind to take you both to the cooler like Hot dogging artist and deep fried bun."

"That'll be the day, Ole fart. Ya nothing more than hot air. Go cry a river to ya boss men O'Bummer and Big Ben, I ain't letting you take me in. Take that." Her stacatto heel takes his eye out in a mighty poke.

"Oh thatta pole dancer, she's jibed me" he cries his eye ableed as he reels like Warner Brother's last spool on Soldier Ryan. 

Elliot has his cuffs out but Mickey is spilling over and the slip goes to slippery as the hunt for Red October now ratches up to hot spot on a radar screen going misty fog.

"I can't see a thingie from a ring my jingle bells" he bellows. As they climax at maximum tilt, J Edgar belches out, "Now thats what I call a corker jack outta the box!" He is waxing eloquent like true kinky trooper on a national day parade. 

"One more time around the merry go" sweet sighing Lula Sue pleads as he gasps for Moon rarified air floating on the broom stick. Hes had his snitch.

"One double Mac coming up" he rants, after all, he's been  on long awol abstinence.

Elliot can't take it no more, he lets fly his pea shooter. It takes out J Edgar's other eye. "I'm all blind and in tha dark. You dumbass, you took out my last trump card."

Elliot, all ashamed and confused, bemused by lovers on the inquisition rack,  helps his boss out of the shack where they've lost their all-in play. "I done, I've been taken clean. I'm Bancoed to bankruptcy"wails J Edgar.  While Mickey hits the jack pot one more time.

To cut a long story short, Lula Sue makes out big time next day, shorting the geeky Greeks and Mickey goes back to Omaha Sage saying ruefully, "I didn't get him but someone did it for me."

"I know" replies the Sage. "Lula Sue works for me. I always cover my bets. So you get your bonus anyways. And best of all J Edgar goes back to retirement, the unholy shill who has a file on me that'll do him no more good than sticky candy hair.  Now Earl of Shady and I can carve out the world. And who gives a flying fuck for Big Ben. He'll strike twelve whenever I tell him to. You see I own his boss as well." 

Mickey saunters off and sighs to himself, "Next thing I 'll know its the Sage that owns my pecker too. This guy is gargantuan, deep shit."

The voice from the shadow says to him, syrupy and smooth, "Nope, I've staked that out. Its part of my bonus; Sailor boy. And you're sailing me all the way to Frisco."

He can't argue with that, as Lula Sue has her hat on! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:20 | 2092143 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Do tell.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:29 | 2092192 doomz78
doomz78's picture

so how does a hedge fund control the faith of europe.  Please give me the coles note version. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:39 | 2092478 john39
john39's picture

because they have the power to force the cabal to come fully into the open and show that law and legal rights no longer matter.   the cabal will only do this if it has to.   sure this info is nothing new around here, but most of the world still believes in the rule of law, efficient markets and the rest of that fantasy world bullshit.   but not for much longer.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 12:56 | 2092869 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And the Rothchilds will be doing exactly what behind the scenes?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:24 | 2092172 Dcheeth2
Dcheeth2's picture

Durden Associates???? lol

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:07 | 2092070 Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

oh reallly ? 

 

I don't think so .. 

 

S&P downgrade = bullish
S&P warns = 100% bullish
S&P moans = bulls in africa licks their balls  

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:24 | 2092165 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Everything is fucking bullish.  I just can't get past the cognitive dissonance of going long in this market.  And this godforsaken market is staying retarded much longer than I can stay solvent in it.  Bastards.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:55 | 2092298 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner allowed for the chance of the business cycle to work with all the bailouts. It's as SIMPLE as that. While i wouldn't call it a resounding success...it has worked here in the USA. Throw in some shale oil and some cloud computing and...voila'!...you have the makings of a "what shouldn't be a shockingly anemic recovery" but instead a rip roaring one. I'll leave it to you to answer the lack of a "rip roaring recovery." I know i already know. And if you'd seen what has happened to me as a consequence you'd also know why the blow up in Europe will lead to full scale war in the Middle East. Eh. I've already done my bit for King and Country. Let the warmongers on the tele explain it to the fallen...Lord knows nearly all the current crop of war-wonger wannabees not only have never served nor ever cared to but have no problem telling others to "do as such." C'est la vie.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:13 | 2092099 doomz78
doomz78's picture

They wont have a REAL default.  Credit drfault swaps sure are hard to honour.  They will buy another few weeks by doing the same thing that has hapened for the last 12 months.  Alot of nothing. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:18 | 2092131 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

All it takes is one to actually fall, and the rest will follow.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:40 | 2092246 one man wolf pack
one man wolf pack's picture

The TPTB know this and thats why they are trying not to let the first one fall.

On another note I have been going over Greece's numbers , and if they would just stop breaking plates they could get their whole budget in line. 2 trillion in damaged china, WTF?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:19 | 2092139 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Don't ruin the state of the union speech from Obama! Where you will see live a man that will spew verbal poo from his lips all while alternating between sounding white most of the time, but yet will veer and sound black when he suddenly moves off the teleprompter for a second! The fucking endless clapping reminds me of a trip to the zoo and watching the monkeys play together!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:37 | 2092239 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

But he is cool.. he danced on the Lezbo Ellen show.... and Oprah likes him

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:25 | 2092175 Money never sleeps
Money never sleeps's picture

ECB will soon be history as these guys will take over the world with their business model: http://bit.ly/wZ7orO

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:30 | 2092177 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Re Chuck Bone:  "everyone will find out soon enough that sovereign lending is inherently unsecured" 

Perhaps that's their "poison pill", though as Tyler has pointed out the world courts could get pesky about that.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 16:33 | 2093798 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Tyler says:

"the country's balance sheet can not be primed and thus subordinated, and thus is ineligible for secured financing"

Chuck B says:

"I don't care what the ECB says, everyone will find out soon enough that sovereign lending is inherently unsecured."

Pardon my ignorance but isnt that the whole point of the SMP and its collateral arrangements soon to be supported by ESM? 

They ignore the ratings of Greek and Portuguese bonds for purposes of taking collateral.... so the more these countries end up selling junk they more they get backed by Senior (unsubordinated) bonds/capital.    (Its a separate point about whether that fiat backing is worth anything long term..... i think...????)

So private sector write-offs/CDS collects will hit the banks, but that is what the LTRO is for, to backstop those.  

So everyone gets sucked into a system controlled by the ECB/IMF..... ?????? 


Tue, 01/24/2012 - 09:57 | 2092029 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Crash Europe already. The EU needs to die.

France needs to elect LePen and kick the euro shills out. Bankers and their political friends need to hang high

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:17 | 2092121 niktamere
niktamere's picture

Ceux qui se laissent porter par le système, c'est les même qui votent Le Pen mais qui sont pas racistes , c'est les mêmes qui font les grèves pour protester dès que les escalators ils tombent en panne , la pire des races !

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:24 | 2092164 falak pema
falak pema's picture

what has race got to do with : Mort aux cons!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:26 | 2092180 doomz78
doomz78's picture

tata. colon.  tu dis rien.  Achete toi douze biere et reste a maison pour la journee. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:33 | 2092216 niktamere
niktamere's picture

you fellas must not "get" party politics, I understand. Vive la suffisance

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2092033 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think they mean imminent as described in the steamroller scene from Austin Powers.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:01 | 2092042 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

We're all dead! But not you. You're excluded.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:02 | 2092047 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Same reaction to potential "problems" in Europe:

 

 

1) Everyone suddenly flees to "Paper" as Treasuries are going vertical

2) Gold getting bludgeoned, horrific gap down in the GDX

3) Various and assorted tech stocks like VMW, WDC shucking off Europe problems

 

Any questions??

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:04 | 2092061 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Would you answer them?  Robo, what is your SPX target?  Just give us a number. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2092457 CPL
CPL's picture

If he doesn't have any numbers, he does an interesting interpretive dance. 

 

Robotrader is famous for his tap dancing with a back peddle spin with Hamy

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2092062 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Yes... HOW CAN ANYONE TRUST ANY PAPER?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:05 | 2092063 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Gold getting bludgeoned"

Wake me up when it is back down under $500 an ounce, then I will be even with my paper investment.  Loser.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:25 | 2092169 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Your definition of -0.67% appears to be a lot different than mine.

 

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:30 | 2092208 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Your comment does not even make sense.  You must of bought high.  Sorry, I trade under one general rule - buy low and sell high.  If you are taking a hit with a -0.67% move, then you didn't invest wisely.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:56 | 2092252 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I first bought gold at $273......I'm good with the -0.67 hit.

 

I'm unbludgeoned.....and really not all that worried. Haven't you heard? Greece is going to default....and then Spain, Italy, Prodigal, Ireland....you get the idea.

 

No worries....it will happen in super slowmo HD. Even the slowest should be able to see it coming. Well....right up until the the time the slow fizz goes boom.

 

At that exact instant....the gold window will close.

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 10:10 | 2092090 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Yes - when is the right time to sell those Netflix shares we bought per your recommendation at their peak?

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