S&P Warns It May Cut Most European Banks, European Union Itself

Tyler Durden's picture

Not sure why the market is surprised by this, but it is.

  • S&P PLACES LARGE BANK GROUPS ACROSS EUROZONE ON WATCH NEG - BNP, SocGen, Commerzbank, Intesa, Deutsche... pretty much everyone.
  • EUROPEAN UNION'S AAA RATING MAY BE CUT BY S&P - you KNOW Barroso, Juncker and Gollum are going to take this very personally
  • In short: Commerzbank AG, Natixis S.A., Credit Agricole S.A., Eurohypo, Deutsche Bank L-T counterparty credit rating, Deutsche Postbank AG, Intesa Sanpaolo,Societe Generale L-T counterparty credit, UniCredit SpA, Credit Du Nord L-T counterparty credit, Comapgnie Europeenne de Garanties et Cautions, Credit Foncier de France, Locindus S.A., Rabobank Nederland, CACEIS, Banca IMI SpA, Ulster Bank, Banque Kolb, Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. ratings may be cut by S&P.

Basically, S&P just told Europe it has two days to get the continent in order or else. Said otherwise, it just called Europe's bluff. The problem is Europe is holding 2-7 offsuit...

And now is the time for the FT to eviscerate the bears with the latest groundless rumors.

From the S&P's downgrade of the EU:

  • On Dec. 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's placed the ratings on 15 of the 17 member states of the European Monetary and Economic Union (EMU or eurozone) governments on CreditWatch with negative implications. As a result, the ratings on 17 European Union (EU) member states are now on CreditWatch with negative implications.
  • We are therefore also placing the 'AAA' long-term rating on the EU on CreditWatch negative. At the same time, we are affirming the 'A-1+' short-term rating on the EU.
  • The CreditWatch placement on the eurozone member states was prompted by our concerns about the potential impact on these member states of what we view as deepening political, financial, and monetary problems within the eurozone.
  • Eurozone members directly contribute approximately 62% of the EU's total 2011 budgeted revenues. Our CreditWatch review will focus on the financial ability of eurozone member states to support the EU's debt service should the institution face a period of financial distress.
  • We expect to conclude our review as soon as possible after the European summit on Dec. 9, 2011. Depending on the outcome of our review of the ratings on eurozone member governments, we could lower the long-term rating on the EU by one notch, if any.

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Dec. 7, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today placed its 'AAA' long-term issuer credit rating on the European Union (EU) on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term issuer credit rating on the EU.

The CreditWatch placement is prompted by similar CreditWatch placements, which we made on 15 eurozone sovereigns on Dec. 5, 2011. The CreditWatch on the EU is an expression of our concerns about the potential impact on the future debt service capacity of eurozone sovereigns, and therefore also the EU, in the context of what we view as deepening political, financial, and monetary problems within the eurozone. Eurozone members account for 62% of the EU's total 2011 budgeted revenues. For 2011, budgeted revenues from Germany and France were 32% of total EU revenues, at 16% and 14%, respectively. In total, 'AAA' rated member states account for just over 49% of the EU's 2011 budgeted revenues, with only the U.K., Denmark, and Sweden retaining a stable outlook (together they contribute 13% of the EU's 2011 budgeted revenues). Given the EU's dependency on such revenues from national budgets, and our recent CreditWatch placements on the 'AAA' ratings on Germany and France, among others, we will concurrently review the 'AAA' long-term rating on the EU with the ratings on the eurozone member states.

CREDITWATCH

We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placements on the eurozone member states as soon as possible after the European summit on Dec. 8 and 9, 2011. Following this, we then expect to resolve the CreditWatch on the EU. We typically resolve CreditWatch actions within 90 days, although we will attempt to resolve the CreditWatch placements on eurozone sovereigns and therefore the EU sooner, if possible and appropriate.

We could lower the long-term issuer credit rating on the EU by one notch if we were to lower the current 'AAA' ratings on one or more member states, with a special focus on the largest contributors, France and Germany. Conversely, the ratings could be affirmed at their current levels if we were to affirm the member states' 'AAA' ratings following the respective sovereign CreditWatch review.


And from the bank downgrade:

--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has placed its ratings on some of the largest rated banking groups in the eurozone on CreditWatch with negative implications (see ratings list below). Similar rating actions on other large banks in the eurozone will follow soon. This follows the placement of the sovereign credit ratings on 15 members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) on CreditWatch with negative implications on Dec. 5, 2011 (see "Standard & Poor's Puts Ratings On Eurozone Sovereigns On CreditWatch With Negative Implications").
 
We believe that the ratings on Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg could be lowered by up to one notch, if at all, and those on Estonia, France, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Spain by up to two notches, if at all.
 
We intend to resolve the CreditWatch placement on these banks soon after the resolution of the CreditWatch placement on the related sovereign.
 
We will publish individual research updates on some of the banks identified below including a list of ratings on affiliated rated entities. The research updates will be available at www.standardandpoors.com/AI4FI and on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal. Ratings on specific issues will be available on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal and www.standardandpoors.com following release.
 
 
RATINGS LIST

The ratings listed below are issuer credit ratings.
                     To                         From
 
Barclays Bank Ireland PLC
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-/Watch Neg              A-/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-2                       A-2
 
BNP Paribas          AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+        AA-/Stable/A-1+
 Banca Nazionale del Lavoro SpA
                     A/Watch Neg/A-1           A/Negative/A-1
 BGL BNP Paribas S.A.AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+        AA-/Stable/A-1+
 BNP Paribas Personal Finance
                     AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+        AA-/Stable/A-1+
 BNP Paribas Cardif  A+/Watch Neg/--           A+/Stable/--
 Cardif Assurance Vie
                     AA-/Watch Neg/--          AA-/Stable/--
 Cardif-Assurances Risques Divers
                     AA-/Watch Neg/--          AA-/Stable/--
 BNP Paribas (China) Ltd.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
                     AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+        AA-/Stable/A-1+
 BNP Paribas Securities Services
                     AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+        AA-/Stable/A-1+
 Fortis Bank S.A./N.V.
                     AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+        AA-/Stable/A-1+
 
BPCE
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 BRED-Banque Populaire
 Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 Compagnie Europeenne de Garanties et Cautions
                     A+/Watch Neg/--           A+/Stable/--
 Credit Foncier de France
                     A/Watch Neg/A-1           A/Stable/A-1
 Locindus S.A.
                     A/Watch Neg/A-1           A/Stable/A-1
 Natixis S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 Natixis Australia Pty Ltd.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 Natixis Financial Products LLC
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 
Commerzbank AG       A/Watch Neg/A-1           A/Negative/A-1
Commerzbank International S.A.
                    A/Watch Neg/A-1           A/Negative/A-1
Commerzbank Europe (Ireland)
                    A/Watch Neg/A-1           A/Negative/A-1
Eurohypo AG         A-/Watch Neg/A-2          A-/Negative/A-2
EUROHYPO Europaeische Hypothekenbank S.A.
                    A-/Watch Neg/A-2          A-/Negative/A-2
 
Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A. (Rabobank Nederland) Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     AA/Watch Neg              AA/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1+                      A-1+
 Rabobank Australia Ltd.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     AA/Watch Neg               AA/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1+                       A-1+
 Rabobank New Zealand Ltd.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     AA/Watch Neg               AA/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1+                       A-1+
 Rabohypotheekbank N.V.
                     AA/Watch Neg/--            AA/Stable/--
 
Credit Agricole S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg               A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                        A-1
 Banque de Financement et de Tresorerie
                     A/Watch Neg/A-1            A/Stable/A-1
 CA Consumer Finance
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg               A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                        A-1
 CACEIS
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg               A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                        A-1
 Cassa di Risparmio di Parma e Piacenza SpA
                     A/Watch Neg/A-1            A/Negative/A-1
 Credit Lyonnais
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg               A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                        A-1
 Credit Agricole CIB Australia Ltd.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A+/Watch Neg              A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                     A-1                       A-1
 
Deutsche Bank AG

Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank AG (Canada Branch)
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank Luxembourg S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank National Trust Company
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank Trust Corp.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank Trust Co. Americas
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Deutsche Bank Trust Company Delaware
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 
Deutsche Postbank AG
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 
Deutsche Securities Inc.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Negative
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 Banca Infrastrutture Innovazione e Sviluppo SpA (BIIS)
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
Banca IMI SpA
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 
Ulster Bank Ltd.
                   BBB+/Watch Neg/A-2          BBB+/Stable/A-2
Ulster Bank Ireland Ltd.
                   BBB+/Watch Neg/A-2          BBB+/Stable/A-2
 
Rabobank USA Financial Corp.
                   A-1+                        A-1+
Societe Generale
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Banque Kolb S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Banque Rhone Alpes S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Banque Tarneaud S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Credit du Nord S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Franfinance
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Komercni Banka A.S.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 SG Americas Securities LLC
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 Societe Generale Bank & Trust
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A+/Watch Neg                A+/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-1                         A-1
 
UniCredit SpA
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 UniCredit Leasing SpA
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 UniCredit Bank Austria AG
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 UniCredit Bank AG
                   A/Watch Neg/A-1             A/Negative/A-1
 Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-/Watch Neg                A-/Stable
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
                   A-2                         A-2