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"Spain Is Fine"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If there is one physics rule that the central planners know all about, in their utter disdain of virtually every other natural principle, regression to the mean being the most prominent one, it is the law of communicating vessels. Only instead of water, the central banks use monetary liquidity to achieve equivalency across the various different vessels a/k/a capital shortfall locations. Such as the Spanish financial sector. Think that "Spain is fine"? Look at the chart below and think again. And don't even get us started on Portugal. How long before the residents of Portugal and Spain pull a Greece and withdraw 20% of statutory bank deposits in a year, in the process starting the terminal unwind of these two countries financial cores and putting them on day to day ECB life support?  Oh wait, they already have. The chart below, showing Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB, is self-explanatory, even when factored in for "seasonal adjustments."

 

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Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:43 | 2157418 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

You mean those last 12 months aren't a U-shaped recovery?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:45 | 2157432 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I thought it was a "V" shaped recovery. That's what the talking heads on TV told me.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:47 | 2157440 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

The pain in Spain lies mainly in the drain!!!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:53 | 2157461 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think you mean......oh, wait......umm.......nevermind. :>)

Nice to see you rocking twitter. Very nice indeed.

https://twitter.com/#!/TheLimerickKing

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:01 | 2157496 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

Spain's soon to be new FFF rating by Doody's...............

Fine, Finis, and Fucked.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:06 | 2157532 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Thanks CD...it's very nice to see you on there as well! 140 characters is certainly an interesting poetic challenge.

Twitter's not bad....but nothing compares to the gang at ZH!!! (although it's nice to see WB7, red pill & others on twitter as well)!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:09 | 2157553 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Do you have a twitter link for Red Pill?

Banzai7 is here.

https://twitter.com/#!/williambanzai7

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:15 | 2157573 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Ha Ha....I was just in the process when you blocked my edit with your post...here is red pill:

https://twitter.com/#!/__redpill__

And let's not forget this important one:  https://twitter.com/#!/ZHCogDis

Cheers!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:14 | 2157579 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well CD you've jst convinced me to try this twitter thingy :>     Another way to waste my day. Hmmmm maybe The Limerick King can use that.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2157599 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

On Twitter you may find a way

For wasting the rest of your day

It's lacking the edge

Of our great Zero Hedge

But not a bad place just to play!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:23 | 2157620 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Great stuff.

You should start charging for personalized services.  hell, i'd bet you could make lots of fiat writing valentines today.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:58 | 2157494 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Clever craftsmanship...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:48 | 2157442 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Instead of a double dip recession it is the new chart based on more algos...... a double high "recovery".

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:45 | 2157419 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"Spain is fine" ~ Which means it ISN'T

In other news... "Subprime is contained"

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:50 | 2157449 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Spain is NOT Greece... just like Greece "was not" Argentina! Its scary how the crisis in Greece mimicks the Argentinian default of 2002. IMF soundbites signaling strong growth and everything.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:53 | 2157462 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

NOt being on fire is the new "fine".

I feel great, thanks for asking. My hemmoroids are down, my nose bleed is slowing, the diapers work on the anal leakage. It's fine.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:44 | 2157422 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Andalucia was about to erupt but... there's all these bitches on the beach.

Look elsewhere, this is old news.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:45 | 2157424 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Wait for it, 'cause it's coming. Spain and Portugal can nor more afford their debt than Greece. With unemployment at historic highs, just where is the tax revenue going to come from to cover interest payments? More debt is not the solution......default however, is. Return to original currencies and start over again.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:54 | 2157469 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

They just need to "do their best and forget the rest".  More worthless currencies are better than fewer worthless currencies, I suppose. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:45 | 2157431 GaryNeville
GaryNeville's picture

Priced In!

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:46 | 2157433 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Transitory.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:48 | 2157434 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Cramer was pounding the table this morning insisting that Italy and Spain are "fine".

Are you suggesting Cramer was lying?

 

BTW,

Speculators in the gold market increased their net long position to the highest level since mid-September 2011, adding almost 10% more length over the course of the week, while silver speculators were more aggressive, raising net length by 25%.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:13 | 2157570 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Never understood how that guy gets the respect he does. He was a hedge-fund manager in a time of the greatest bull market in the the history of the western world (Arguably). A monkey could of made money in the 90's.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:19 | 2157593 SMG
SMG's picture

Because he says what the Illuminati Oligarchs tell him to say.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:46 | 2157436 insidious
insidious's picture

So the chart shows Spanish Central Bank borrowing from ECB in billions of Euros?

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:47 | 2157441 insidious
insidious's picture

Sorry - I missed the last line of the writeup.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:46 | 2157437 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

I read recently an insightful article on Portugal and Spain which suggested they were both in danger of an economic depression. After today's dreadful GDP numbers for Portugal (-1.3% in Q4 2011 alone) it is looking rather prescient.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/more-evidence-emerges-that-spain-and-portugal-may-bypass-recession-and-go-straight-to-depression/

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:47 | 2157438 Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

Monetary liquidity?  The cup floweth over.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:00 | 2157802 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

The Banksters' cup floweth over..

There, fixed it for ya..  <];-)

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:03 | 2157829 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The average folk get nothing! Their cup runneth dry.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:47 | 2157439 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Reminds me of my friend Pat when he bets on a football game, and the team he bet on makes a bad play.

His phrase, "THAT'S OK!  IT'S FINE! IT'S FINE!"

Probably said the same thing in Argentina during their inflation shenanegians.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:49 | 2157447 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Watching the financial markets lately is like watching an interpretive, national-level rendition of The Walking Dead.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:49 | 2157448 StockHut
StockHut's picture

It's incredible how much these government leaders are lying to keep the status quo.  Confidence in their fiat garbage is going nowhere but down.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:08 | 2157451 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Well you know Tyler just how much a Systemic Risk SANTANDER is for the UK......and companies like Ferrovial which Fitch thinks is BBB and Telefonica which Fitch thinks is BBB+.........which are large UK bank operators; large UK airport operators, and large UK Mobile Phone operators with significant operations throughout the EU

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:54 | 2157470 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

Yes, Spain is totally "fine".

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:55 | 2157472 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Regression to the mean is a *statistical phenomenon*, not a law of physics.  Change "one physics rule" to "one rule of Nature" you're golden.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2157600 Da55id
Da55id's picture

consistent and repeatable phenomena are manifestations of physical realities - physics

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:58 | 2157796 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Philosophical nonsense.  You don't have a clue about what you are talking about.

Philosophers, like you, somehow believe that one of the fundamental requisites of science is that whenever you set up the same conditions, the same thing must happen.  This is simply not true, it is not a fundamental condition of science.

The fact is that the same thing does not happen, that we can find only an average, statistically, as to what happens. This is due to experimental error.  Nevertheless, science has not completely collapsed unlike your thought process.

Note again, this is not a consequence of physics, but of statistics.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 22:18 | 2160236 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

On some scale, Planck's constant starts to become numerically significant...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:07 | 2163949 Da55id
Da55id's picture

indeed

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:56 | 2157475 GerritB
GerritB's picture

One of the best programs in the Netherlands to my opinion:

http://www.uitzendinggemist.nl/afleveringen/1239996

 

It is a documentary about Greece and the deals they made with Goldman and Sachs. They are interviewing even a ex worker of goldman. Very interesting!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 11:57 | 2157481 Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

The old AAA ratings will all be replaced by BBB ratings for which we will add DDD, FFF, GGG, and so on to the low end of the scale.  Nothing changes except the letters. 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:01 | 2157513 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Monetary liquidity is another term for bullsh**...

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:05 | 2157529 Grey-Ghost
Grey-Ghost's picture

Interesting comment below that article, from "JW"

You may have already seen this but faced with global economic calamity the 'great and good' at Davos are considering 5 major risks , the 3rd most important on the list is 'increasing greenhouse gas emissions'.....the world's gone mad! But there are some interesting words in their briefing;
''Dystopia, the opposite of a utopia, describes a place where life is  full of hardship and devoid of hope. Analysis of linkages across  various global risks reveals a constellation of fiscal, demographic  and societal risks signalling a dystopian future for much of humanity.  The interplay among these risks could result in a world where a  large youth population contends with chronic, high levels  of unemployment, while concurrently, the largest population of
retirees in history becomes dependent upon already heavily  indebted governments. Both young and old could face an income gap,  as well as a skills gap so wide as to threaten social and political stability.''

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2157571 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Paging Dick Bove for confirmation. Wait, wait, wait... Yes, Dick? Really? Ok then! Folks, it's official, Spain is fine!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:23 | 2157609 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

The man from Del Monte he say yes.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:23 | 2157617 Doctor Doom
Doctor Doom's picture

This means that during the last 12 months Spanish banks lost customer money.

Tyler, I am wondering where the money flows in: Can you please post the same graph for Germany? Should look the Spanish mirrored.

 

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 12:27 | 2157641 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Fluidity solves debt.

Print to infinity!

Spain is entering a new golden age.

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:05 | 2157694 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

The Limerick King is a sparkling wine,

Even 140 characters confine

But we love him right here

On ZH we all cheer

When he brings us another perfect rhyme

 

OK, I'm shit, but I couldn't resist a quick hat tip to the man.

Keep them coming bro. I'll have to twitter link you to make sure I get my quota :)

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:21 | 2157930 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Much appreciated...thanks (not a bad first limerick!!!)

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:01 | 2157820 vainamoinen
vainamoinen's picture

G.G. quoted:

"Both young and old could face an income gap,  as well as a skills gap so wide as to threaten social and political stability.''

Sounds like where I work -

Except this week I'm laid off -

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:43 | 2158028 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

1-I'm hungry, I'm dirty, I'm losing my mind
Everything's fine
I'm freezing, I'm starving, I'm bleeding to death
Everything's fine

 

TRACY BONHOME(SP)

great tune

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 13:55 | 2158077 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

An endorsement from The King, I'll take that :)

It genuinely was my first limerick!!!

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 15:24 | 2158463 sasebo
sasebo's picture

I don't know what I'd do without all this crap ---------------------------

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