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Spain Forecasts 24.3% Unemployment In 2012, 1.7% GDP Contraction

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Nothing good here for our Spanish readers: while speaking at a news conference, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said that Spain's economy will contract by 1.7 percent this year as the government carries out drastic austerity measures. The forecast matched the International Monetary Fund's outlook for Spain's economy this year and was less optimistic than the outlooks from the country's central bank and from the European Commission. Earlier, Spain also defied the European Union, setting a 2012 deficit target at 5.8 percent of gross domestic product, a far softer goal than the 4.4 percent agreed with Brussels. More importantly, the country now anticipates that its unemployment rate will hit 24.3%. Frankly, while horrendous and worse even than in Greece (as it also implies a youth unemployment rate well into the 50%s), this is an overoptimistic number, because as noted before, Spain's unemployment soared from 21.5% to 23.3% in Q4 alone. When all is said and done, look for Spain's 2012 YE unemployment to be well over 25%. So as the economic deterioration across the PIIGS accelerates, at least the banks are "safe."

Spain's historical unemployment:

And other forecast highlights via Bloomberg, citing Spain's De Guindos:

  • *SPAIN GROWTH MAY BE NEGATIVE UNTIL THIRD QUARTER INCLUDED
  • *SPAIN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING TO DECLINE IN 2012, DE GUINDOS SAYS
  • *SPAIN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS 24.3% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 2012
  • *SPAIN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS 24.3% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 2012
  • *SPAIN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING TO CONTRACT 4 PERCENT IN 2012
  • *SPAIN 2012 SPENDING LIMIT SET AT EU118.6BLN
  • *SPAIN 2012 SPENDING LIMIT DOWN 4.7% FROM 2011

As we said, nothing good.

 

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Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:19 | 2216403 GetZeeGold
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No worries....I hear they're going green.

 

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:22 | 2216413 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Ahhh the Euro the gift that keeps on giving...

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:35 | 2216443 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Just like in America, the banks are safe and the economy sucks. 

In my next life, I wanna be born a bank.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:38 | 2216447 economics1996
economics1996's picture

John Maynard Keynes still fucking up peoples lives everywhere.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:51 | 2216488 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just wait....it's gonna kick in any day now - Paul Krugman

 

 

 

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 13:22 | 2216602 EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

Keynes was wrong and his influence was bad but his modern "disciples" have bastardised his writings to such a degree that they bear absolutely no relation to what he wrote in the first place. If Keynes were to read the way Krugman interprets him today, he would physically strangulate him.

Keynes never said that governments should run gargantuan deficits in a growth phase and run even bigger deficits during a bust. He also never said that central banks should simply print unlimited sums of money all the time and finance those gargantuan deficits. All these interpretations are bastardisations of Keynes' original writings. The real culprits are quacks like Krugman. I sincerely hope that he is allowed to keep his Nobel prize but loses his shirt with all his life savings in US government bonds. That will be very fitting for someone of his intellect.

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 14:17 | 2217277 malek
malek's picture

Ridiculous. Is your main line of thought "never talk bad about the dead?"

Keynes was mostly wrong in his younger years, and gov't didn't take his advice because they loved his intellect, but because he gave a (wrong) intellectual reason for allowing unlimited money printing. How convenient! Allegedly only for the short term, yeah, sure.

In his later life it seems Keynes realized some of his foolishness, but the damage already was done, and HE NEVER clearly and outspoken rescinded his previous ideas. That's why I will not grant him absolution.

How to easily detect any shill:
Check if their message essentially boils down to "do the easy thing now, the hard thing later."
This is never going to work on a larger scale.

And then you realize Krugman is on the same quack level as Keynes.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 04:42 | 2219356 EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

Re-read what I wrote instead of shouting.

Keynes recommended that governments run surpluses during booms. What would be the point of doing that? He could have simply said run deficits every year regardless of the business cycle.

Krugman is a distortion of Keynes. I am not defending Keynes. But to describe Keynes as a hyperinflationist like Krugman is nonsense. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:23 | 2216415 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

This is all because wineries don't use cork anymore.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:30 | 2216434 Confused
Confused's picture

That helps explain why Portugal is fucked.   ;-P

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:26 | 2216425 resurger
resurger's picture

La gente esta muy loca...

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:20 | 2216407 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

WHAT!  A RECESSION??@?@@!?!?!?@#?#@?!?!?@?!

Glad things are fine over here.

/S

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:26 | 2216426 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

yeah, looks like Spain needs a Bureau of Liars and Shills (BLS) like us.  That way, it will really look like 8% unemployment and green shoots everywhere.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:33 | 2216438 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Remember how recession is keeping Greece from hitting their debt goals.

Hello Spain.

You know if you rearrange the letters it spells pains.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:07 | 2216548 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

maybe we'll get green shootouts everywhere when rioters start throwing olives and tomatos

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 11:12 | 2216719 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

Throw in a little olive oil from Greece and you've got a lovely salad!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:21 | 2216409 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

This is very bullish for AAPL.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:23 | 2216417 Rentenmark
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Yes, all those unemployed will need something to occupy their time.  Certainly won't be throwing rocks at police!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:25 | 2216424 GetZeeGold
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They can look up recipes for Iphone recipies on their Ipads.

 

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:41 | 2216463 resurger
resurger's picture

what about Pachá & Cafe Delmar ....

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:26 | 2216609 tabasco71
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They're in Ibiza... which is kinda like a tiny Cuba?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:23 | 2216414 VyseLegendaire
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Bullish for tilted windmill farms?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:24 | 2216420 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Two words......solar panels......don't tell anyone.

 

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:25 | 2216600 tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

+1

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:23 | 2216416 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Gold and silver sliding again, heck, today's NFP number must be bad.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:33 | 2216440 PaperBear
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Oh, no NFP this Friday.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:23 | 2216418 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you mean "the safe banks are safe" otherwise known as "most favored nation bank" or the MFNB.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:25 | 2216422 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Over-promise, under-deliver

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:36 | 2216451 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Worse: under-deliver even the under-promised..

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:45 | 2216657 tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

Worse: say you tried your best and then sweep it all under the carpet

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:26 | 2216423 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

I´ve said for some that A: Spains is royally screwed and B: there will be armed conflict in Spain in in this decade. 

 

On the bright side of things... If and when Spain reverses to mean unemployment rates, one must remeber that democratic Spain has never had less than 9,2% so even if twentysomething percent sounds horrible it´s just double the number they usually have.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:10 | 2216563 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

They just made the arms law tougher.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 11:28 | 2216764 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

I was there in the early 90's and it was 25% then. But at least it was cheap there then.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 12:15 | 2216905 EC2.0
EC2.0's picture

I spent the better part of my formative years in Spain during the 90s and have 99% of my family in the southern parts of the country. It was the golden era for anyone who had dollars to spend. My cousins tell me that unemployment is overstated and that a new underground economy is emerging to get around suffocating regulations and taxes. They estimate the true unemployment rate to be somewhere closer to 12-15% when taking into account the black market for trade services. Still not great but closer to historical averages.

It's hard to think back to how easy life was back then and see how badly they've mucked it up since. 

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:47 | 2216473 adr
adr's picture

Why do people need jobs anymore? China will make all of our products, governments will print all the cash we need to buy anything we want. All you need is to take your cash and invest in free services that don't actually make any money on real production, only advertising website scams and hyperlinks that redirect to mafia porn.

It's the ultimate dream. Getting rich without working a day. God, Spain needs to get on the program. They though people working was the answer, hahahha.

TODAY IS YELP DAY EVERYONE!!!!!

A new social media piece of shit goes public and makes a couple hundred bankers even richer, hoping to leave the stinking pile with bagholders, sorry "investors".

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 11:16 | 2216732 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

Hey! I work. Working hard growing crops in Farmville. Someday you will all come to me for make believe food and boy will all you pay.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:49 | 2216478 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Spanards should to go Germany where the jobs are.. oh yeah, they can't speak German.

A shared currency is a continent with different languages and cultures was a dumb idea.

 

Spain, Italy and Greece need to debase their currency.. but they can't .. they will have no jobs and be on their way to a dark age.  

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 11:34 | 2216777 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

No jobs if they devalue? Millions of Northern Europeans are waiting for these countries to go back to being less expensive than staying at home. It's about $4.50 incl tax for a Pint in the UK or Germany, about $7.00 in Spain or Greece.

These countries are supposed to be cheap. 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 12:39 | 2216966 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Ja, es ist nicht einfach Deutsch zu lernen wenn man Spanier ist.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:50 | 2216480 AU5K
AU5K's picture

A lot of the 24% arent even in the labor force.  Spain's figures are not adjusted for participation, which we all know have dramatically fallen in the US and thus worldwide, so actually real unemployment is only 4.3%.  Viva la espana.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:53 | 2216495 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

*SPAIN FEB. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 112.3K FROM PREVIOUS MONTH

By Angeline Benoit
     March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Registered unemployment in Spain,
where almost half of young people are out of work, rose more
than economists forecast in February as the economy tipped into
its second recession since 2009.
     The number of people registering for jobless benefits
increased by 112,269 to 4.71 million, the Labor Ministry in
Madrid said in an e-mailed statement today, after rising the
most in three years in January. That compares with a median
estimate of 80,000 in a Bloomberg News survey of three analysts.
     Spain, home to a third  of the euro region’s unemployed,
fell back into a recession in the last quarter of 2011 and may
contract 1.5 percent this year as the government accelerates
spending cuts, the Bank of Spain estimates. The government,
elected in November on a pledge to create jobs, overhauled labor
rules last month to encourage hiring and reduce the 23.3 percent
unemployment rate, the highest in the European Union.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:00 | 2216519 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

We are in the sweet spot.

The injections are fresh, the high is awesome.

The underlying fundamentals are deteriorating, but nobody cares.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 13:44 | 2217181 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

lizzy36 

I am a jew.

I come from a large family of Eastern European Jews.

Some observant, some not.

NONE OF US LEARNED THIS CRAP.

It is racist, anst-semtic, 3rd reich scapegoating, CRAP.

I believe in free speech. I try and stay out of ignorant, racist, lowest common denominator debates. However, if i believe that the debate has become disrespectful, to Zerohedge and what it stands for, i will have the debate temporarily halted. That is not a threat, it is a statement.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/next-leg-ponzi-revealed-central-banks-begin-buying-us-stocks-outright-starting-today#comment-2215694

 

Let that be a Lesson to ALL! of You Goy Slaves! It is a Statement! of Authority!

Freedom of Speech!

And Censorship of the Truth!

Are at her finger tips!

 

Honestly! You Goy Slaves should have known better than to Anger Your Owner Lizzy!

 

If this sounds familiar! Here is why! Barbra Specter and Lizzy have that same “Jewish Authority over the Rest of us Goys!” We Goys can be silenced whenever it suits our Jewish Masters! And that is NOT! a Threat.. Per Lizzy! That is a Statement! See the video below and see if you can as well recognize the similarity between Barbra and Lizzy? Maybe Lizzy is Barbra? Who knows.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2Vq_e2Z1ug

 

and for those of you wanting to know.. TruthInSunshine

 shares these views of Lizzy’s! and backs up Lizzy’s power to Silence the Goy Slaves! Truth be Damned!

 

Given the Fact that Lizzy has used Lobby Dollars with Tyler.. to provide herself with a Bully pulpit! And of course more sway than the rest of us.. Because of the Lobby Dollars.. I would implore you Goy Slaves to behave.. shy away from the Facts and the Truth for fear of being politically incorrect by AIPAC’s Standards!

 

It should be as well noted that Tyler has been threatened with a Law Suit for Liable! By the Jewish Lobby here at ZeroHedge!

 

The Truth it seems will not set you free! With regard to your Jewish Owners!

 

Let this be a lesson to ALL of You Goy Slaves!

 

Let us ALL! try to NOT! get Tyler or Fight Club in any Trouble.. even if the FACTS! Are being put forth for discussion!

 

Thank You for Your Time!

 

P.S. You will notice that 50,000 plus reads and over 600 comments later that Lizzy Allowed the Goy Slaves to have their Rant! LULZ!!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:00 | 2216522 ivars
ivars's picture

I start to believe that this October chart is correctly showing the February peak in EUR/USD, principal trend. That means, that after little correction along time axis to match the 1,35 peak exactly (I will do it later when I am more sure) , there should be an event ( or nothing special) that would trigger sharp  EUR downslide in the END OF APRIL-early MAY ending in November/Early December 2012.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78027#comment-78027

What could that event (or general increasing weakness in EURo area)  be?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:13 | 2216572 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Sapin's unemployment arte is a bit inflated because of the way the system works.

 

For example in a one worker family (spouse at home with the kids), if the worker loses their job then he/she will apply for unenployment, but so will the spouse, thereby artificially bumping the numer higher.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:17 | 2216584 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

They say moderation in everything in life.

Except work. 5 days on... 2days off.

They use our bodies, minds - our energy - when we are the most healthiest, most active - most important functioning time of our lives and they beat us down with work.

Hey, im all for working and being active - thats not the problem here. I dont want to sit on a couch either before someone misses my point...

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:27 | 2216606 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Blotto great point.  When I think of pro war, pro bombing Iran folks I think to myself you want to defend this?  You want to defend 60 hour weeks at jobs we hate in frustrating commutes to survive?  Surely there must be room for happiness in life and before you think I'm a dumb hippy, one can't always be happy or content but we need some balance.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:29 | 2216622 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

But what will the left lament about?  That Spain has reduced subsidies to wind power.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 10:39 | 2216644 youngman
youngman's picture

What happened to Portugal..I thought they were next in line......Cutters...the Spanish are cutters

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 11:18 | 2216739 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Qué lástima!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 12:35 | 2216960 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The pain in Spain falls mainly on the plain.

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 19:05 | 2218468 antaresteleko
antaresteleko's picture

Unfortunately most Spaniards do live in mainland Spain. Ibiza is mostly inhabited by Germans and English though. Also: Ibiza is by no means anything like Cuba.

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