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Spain Formally Comes A Begging

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the world has known for over two weeks that the Spanish banking system is insolvent and locked out of global liquidity, the country was reticent about formally bowing down to Germany and announcing in proper protocol that it was broke. Until a few hours ago, when Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos Monday sent a letter to Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker, as expected, formally requesting aid to assist with the recapitalization of Spanish banks that need it, the ministry said in a statement.

Market News has details:

De Guindos said the precise form of the aid will be decided taking into consideration "the different possibilities currently available and those that might be decided in the future." The comment seems to suggest that Spain is holding out hope that European leaders will ultimately agree to allow Europe's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to fund banks directly rather than being required to channel the loans through the government.

 

Under current statute neither the ESM nor the temporary bailout fund it will be replacing, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is allowed to inject capital directly into banks. Unless that changes, the bank aid to Spain would add to the Madrid government's debt, with worrying implications for its ability to continue servicing it.

 

In his letter to Juncker, De Guindos confirmed that Spain's bank restructuring agency, the FROB, would receive the aid funds and distribute them to the banks needing them.

 

"The Spanish authorities will offer all of their support in evaluating eligibility criteria, in the definition of financial conditionality, in following up on measures to be implemented, and in the definition of the financial aid contracts, with the goal of finalizing a 'memorandum of understanding' before July 9, so it can be discussed at the next Eurogroup meeting," de Guindos wrote.

 

July 9 is also the date on which the ESM is supposed to become operational, though it could be pushed back several days because of a legal action pending against it in Germany.

 

De Guindos noted that in deciding the amount of aid required, two independent audit reports issued last Thursday as well another report by the International Monetary Fund would be the starting points.

 

The two independent audits, commissioned by the Spanish government, showed Spain's banking sector would need between E16 billion and E26.5 billion in a baseline economic scenario and between E51 billion and E62 billion in a "stressed" scenario where economic activity and housing prices fell further than currently anticipated. The IMF reported an aggregate capital need of around E40 billion for Spanish banks. However, the rating agency Fitch, calling for higher core Tier 1 capital buffers than assumed in the two independent auditors' reports, said on Friday that Spanish banks would need up to E60 billion in the baseline scenario and up to E100 billion in the pessimistic one.

Sadly, at this point we can all just sit back and await for the next Spanish bailout letter demanding more cash, because, as we have explained on several occasions, the ultimate funding need of Spanish banks will be well over €100 billion, as further confirmed overnight by another analysis from Open Europe, which notes the patenly obvious: "Up to mid-2015 Spain faces funding needs of €547.5bn, over half its GDP and a large majority of its debt." Good luck:

Key Points

  • The IMF estimates of €40bn for Spanish bank recapitalisation look too low. We estimate that the banking sector needs between €90bn and €110bn, meaning even the expected €100bn rescue package may not be enough. The amount needed could further increase if banks struggle to raise provisions against losses on top of their capital requirements. The external stress tests announced yesterday are equally too low given that they worked from current data, which may be insufficient or incorrect.
  • We expect that this package, along with higher borrowing costs, could increase Spanish debt to 94% of GDP in 2013 and 112% in 2015 (with only slightly lower growth than expected).
  • This package will intensify the sovereign-banking-loop in Spain as banks come under more pressure to load up on Spanish debt. Unless the far-reaching problems in the Spanish banking sector are resolved – which looks unlikely – further reinforcing this loop could eventually force Spain into a full bailout (as the burden becomes too much for one side to stand). This is something for which the Eurozone’s current bailout fund would not be equipped.
  • Ultimately, Spain’s problems are not confined to its banking sector. The state faces funding costs of €548bn over the next three years, as well problems controlling regional spending and encouraging economic growth – all of which, again, makes the risk of a full bailout for Spain more likely.
  • Therefore, in order to avoid the plan being counterproductive, stabilising the country’s banking sector in longer requires the right conditions – including ‘bail-ins’ and bank wind downs.
  • The ESM will not be in place to provide the funds, meaning that the EFSF will have to. This reduces questions over seniority but will lead to demands for collateral from Finland – a messy issue which could itself prompt seniority concerns.
  • We estimate that total exposure of EU countries to the Spanish economy is around €913bn, a huge amount which highlights the vital importance of ensuring that this rescue package works the first time around.

Full briefing below:

Open Europe Briefing

 

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Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:50 | 2557178 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

"Uncle!"

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:54 | 2557180 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

it reminds me of this Australian story about LICs:

 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/beware-the-endofyear-share-buyback-20120625-20xd8.html

 

well no it doesn't really. but this is a story I tipped ZH about too, regarding companies manipulating their own share price with Goldmans help.

 

Sweet stuff, promise!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:07 | 2557201 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Juicy. Australia.... nothing Ponzi-like about it at all, especially not the house prices.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:52 | 2557179 Aziz
Aziz's picture

"We'll trade you Rafa Nadal!"

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:54 | 2557182 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Spanish banks don't need any new capital. They just need to be allowed to fail and clear the decks for banks that will be far more prudent.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 08:31 | 2557326 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Very good post and to the point. Many thumbs up from me if I could. And best of all, no political spin or partisanship. However, I will be partisan.

But of course as you will hear from liberals, this is the fault of free market systems and crony capitalism. What those socialistic liberals don't seem to understand is that bankruptcy is part of the free market system and the fact that these banks are being bailed out is a failed socialistic program. Some have the false notion that Spain ran a good government, even ran surpluses. I have dispelled that notion and also shown that Spain's government regions were running deficits (with sources). A truly responsible government wouldn't be bailing out these banks, thus it is now the government thatis irresponsible and running deficits. And some want to blame banks for that. Well, I'm with you. Screw the banks. The government should be responsible, not run a deficit to bail them out.

So again, many kudos to you. Nothing should be bailed out, even governments. Failure does not mean the end. Failure of a corporation or even a government means that the corruption and waste is taken out. Incompetence is removed (incompetent executive and politicians). Other, better managed, companies will buy the assets and life moves on. The business cycle goes on and cannot be repealed by any politician or economic model.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:54 | 2557184 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Throw some more fiat on the fire there Lou

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:54 | 2557185 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Did this report say that the Spanish governments (national, regional, and local) are 100bn in arrears?  That's 10% of GDP alone.

I'm so glad the IMF wants to bail out the banks.  What about the debt in arrears? 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:06 | 2557200 Catullus
Catullus's picture

THey have tax revenues of ~300 bn euros annually.  So, one-third of their in flows will go to just paying actual bills, not bonds.  What a fucking joke.  These guys have already defaulted. 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:55 | 2557186 spankfish
spankfish's picture

 

 

 

"Please, sir, I want some more."
                           Oliver Twist

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:56 | 2557189 GCT
GCT's picture

Italy is next! 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:14 | 2557213 valley chick
valley chick's picture

@GCT....I can only hope so.  :)

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:00 | 2557195 bdc63
bdc63's picture

So, will this be the straw that breaks the camel's back, or just more band-aids and can kicking ...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:08 | 2557202 BlankfeinDiamond
BlankfeinDiamond's picture

The latter.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:14 | 2557210 sandeepyadav
Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:30 | 2557231 mrkolice
mrkolice's picture

i'm missing something. so here's the carrot. but where's the stick?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 07:56 | 2557268 crawl
crawl's picture

Another case of bankers holding the country ransom.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 08:34 | 2557340 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Another case of politicians making the wrong choices and not representing the citizens well. That is one major reason I advocate reduced government with much less power, so they can't bail out banks and so these TBTF institutions have to be more responsible or face bankruptcy. That in itself is regulation.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:23 | 2558350 covert
covert's picture

maybe work doesn't pay off?

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!