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Spain Loses Final A Rating With Moodys Downgrade To Baa3, May Downgrade Further - Full Text

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And so the final Spanish A rating tumbles. Why is this kinda, sorta a big deal? Because as we explained in the end of April, "If all agencies downgrade Spain to BBB+ or below, the ECB could increase haircuts by 5% on SPGBs. The key aspect in terms of the Spanish downgrade(s) is the ECB's LTRO. If all three rating agencies move Spain to BBB+ or below then under the ECB's current framework it moves into the Step 3 collateral bucket which requires an additional 5% haircut across the maturities. In classifying its risk management buckets, the ECB uses the highest of the ratings to determine an asset's position (unlike the sovereign benchmark indices which use the lowest rating, in general). Fitch and Moodys currently rate Spain at A and A3 respectively, with both having a negative outlook in place leaving only a small downgrade margin before Spain migrates to the lower ECB bucket."

And now the collateral squeeze is on, unless of course the ECB changes the reules one more time.

Full Moody's statement.

Moody's downgrades Spain's government bond rating to Baa3 from A3, on review for further downgrade
 
London, 13 June 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Spain's government bond rating to Baa3 from A3, and has also placed it on review for possible further downgrade. Moody's expects to conclude the review within a maximum timeframe of three months.
 
The decision to downgrade the Kingdom of Spain's rating reflects the following key factors:
 
1. The Spanish government intends to borrow up to EUR100 billion from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or from its successor, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), to recapitalise its banking system.
This will further increase the country's debt burden, which has risen dramatically since the onset of the financial crisis.
 
2. The Spanish government has very limited financial market access, as evidenced both by its reliance on the EFSF or ESM for the recapitalisation funds and its growing dependence on its domestic banks as the primary purchasers of its new bond issues, who in turn obtain funding from the ECB.
 
3. The Spanish economy's continued weakness makes the government's weakening financial strength and its increased vulnerability to a sudden stop in funding a much more serious concern than would be the case if there was a reasonable expectation of vigorous economic growth within the next few years.
 
Moody's has today also downgraded the rating of Spain's Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria (FROB) to Baa3 from A3 and placed the rating on review for possible further downgrade, in line with the sovereign rating action. The FROB's debt is fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the government of Spain. Moreover, the provisional short-term rating of the Spanish government has today also been downgraded to (P)Prime-3 from (P)Prime-2. Similarly, FROB's short-term rating was lowered to P-3 from P-2.
 
The review for downgrade will focus on the outcome of the ongoing external audits of the Spanish banking system, the conditionality and details of the EFSF/ESM loan agreement, and the specific execution strategy developed for the banking system's recapitalisation. Moody's will also consider any further initiatives at the euro area level. In addition, Spain's rating -- as well as the ratings of other euro area countries -- could be adversely affected if the risk of a Greek exit from the euro area were to rise further.
 
RATINGS RATIONALE
 
The first key driver underlying Moody's three-notch downgrade of Spain's government bond rating is the government's decision to seek up to EUR100 billion of external funding from the EFSF or ESM. A formal request will be presented shortly, but the euro area finance ministers announced on 10 June their willingness to accede to that request. The sum of EUR100 billion is twice the size of Moody's previous base case estimate, and in line with the rating agency's adverse case estimate.
 
While the details of the support package have yet to be announced, it is clear that the responsibility for supporting Spanish banks rests with the Spanish government. EFSF funds will be lent to the government which will use them to recapitalise Spanish banks. This borrowing will materially worsen the government's debt position: Moody's now expects Spain's public debt ratio to rise to around 90% of GDP this year and to continue rising until the middle of the decade. Stabilising the ratio will be a key challenge for the Spanish authorities, requiring years of continued fiscal consolidation. As a consequence, the government's fiscal and debt position is no longer commensurate with a rating in the A range or even at the top of the Baa range.
 
The second driver of today's rating action is the Spanish government's very limited financial market access, as evidenced both by its reliance on the EFSF or ESM for the recapitalisation funds and its growing dependence on its domestic banks as the primary purchasers of its new bond issues, who in turn require funding from the ECB to purchase these bonds. In Moody's view, this is an unsustainable situation. In the absence of positive developments that shore up investor sentiment, such as a resumption of growth or rapid progress in achieving fiscal consolidation objectives, neither of which is likely in the current environment, the government is likely to become increasingly constrained with regard to the terms under which it is able to refinance maturing debt. If unchecked, Moody's believes that the risk of the government losing access to private debt markets on affordable terms and needing to seek direct support from the EFSF/ESM will continue to rise.
 
Given the experience with private-sector involvement (PSI) in Greece and the intentions expressed by euro area officials around the development of the ESM, Moody's believes that the debts of euro area sovereigns that are fully dependent upon official sources to fund their borrowing requirements represent speculative-grade risk. Support would, if needed for a sustained period, be likely to be made conditional on loss-sharing with private investors or in extremis withdrawn altogether.
 
Moody's action to place the government's rating one notch above speculative grade reflects the rating agency's view that Spain has moved much closer to needing to seek direct support from the EFSF/ESM, and therefore much closer to being positioned within speculative grade.
 
Moody's decision to leave the government's rating in investment grade reflects the underlying strength of the Spanish economy and the government's clear desire to reverse the debt trajectory through a strong fiscal consolidation programme. Moody's also acknowledges several factors that differentiate the current programme from the support packages extended to Ireland, Portugal and Greece. In particular, the size of the support package is significantly smaller than it is in the other cases. The maximum amount of EUR100 billion equates to around 10% of Spain's GDP, compared with more than 54% of GDP in the case of Ireland, 114% of GDP in Greece and 46% of GDP in Portugal. Moody's therefore also considers the issue of subordination of bondholders to the senior creditor EFSF/ESM to be less of a negative factor. Senior creditors account for 37% and 40% of total public debt in Ireland and Portugal, while the respective share in Spain is 11% (in case the maximum amount was drawn).
 
FOCUS OF THE RATING REVIEW
 
Moody's has today also placed Spain's Baa3 government bond rating on review for possible further downgrade in order to assess the implications of several factors on the Spanish government's ability to continue to fund its borrowing requirements in the private debt markets. These factors are as follows:
 
- The clarification of the remaining open questions regarding the size and terms of the banking support package.
 
- The ultimate size of the government's liability following the results of the independent valuations and audits of all the Spanish banks, which are expected on 31 July.
 
- Any further initiative at the euro-area level, in particular those relating to steps towards a fiscal and banking union.
 
- The impact of the banking support package on Spain's ability to restore market confidence in the banking sector and by extension in the government bond market.

 


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Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

baaa, baaa, bitchez!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Hey, that's my line.....I guess you have to really fuck up and I mean REALLY fuck up to lose an A rating these days.  Thanks Moody's. I will plan my investment future around your very helpful evaluation. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Nah, you just have to increase the size of your bribes. My bet is that Moody's asked for more than Spain were willing to cough up.

Not that it matter anyway, sovereign risk means nothing to the equities markets, which will no doubt surge on the news. Thanks to the PPT.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

Has the Spanish domino fallen yet?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

They asked for a bailout. They failed.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no, they got it!  that's why they got downgraded!

this is all on a curve anyhow

zeroHedge's rating is F1CnBZ = Fuked, Comrade BiCheZ!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:24 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

wtf is Moody's? ... no, actually, ... don't answer that.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Or Moody's realizes that the more people are paying attention to Spain and the Euro, the less they are paying attention to the US. 

Classic look at my left hand, but dont look at my right hand that street magicians pull. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

not this time. you cant plunge protect with empty buckets.

 

1bn per DAY outflow from Greece. All banks there already on ELA via the NBG and estimates say tehy have 30bn left... that is 15 days tops if the current rate of withdrawals accelerates like it has been over the last few days

Spain outflow gathering pace, along with Italy. 

UK announced "we have liquidity plans in place"  - that means its not just me pulling my money out of UK banks...

We dont know the French position but it is probably the same, as with Netherlands (maybe Merkels orange top was a signal to tell them to stop) 

 

This downgraqde will trigger margin calls where anyone parking money in London will have to cover the calls. 

THE BANKING CRISIS IN SPAIN IS A SPANISH SOLVENCY CRISIS - the  Govt would have fixed it if they COULD have !! 

 

So two Euroland countries look like they are tapped out on both private and public sector savings (net debt lines) leaving Italy which will get crucified likely before Friday... 

Unless TSipras throws in the towel pre-election saying he will stick to the bailout... would you as an Italian investor leave you money in Italian equity or deposits on Friday knowing that when you wake up on Monday it could be on the path of no return? 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I'm not sure Spain has much in the form of "hard assets" to flee. Not true when it comes to Italy! If Italian sovereigns implode (tomorrow?!) should be some "wild times" in the EU. Commence "Mother of all Capital Raisings."

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:42 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

I bet ECB council right now thinking " we should have voted in last council to upgrade our SMP to POMO buying....   in case..........too late for that for tomorrow,  the europeans like to be sticklers for due process.. coz tomorrow could get ugly with the italian bond auction, lets pray the italian banks have enough change left over from their LTRO slush fund to cover their collateral providers in the first place

Too late to check whether they issued new "govt guaranteed" bonds themselves recently to raise cash to recycle back into sov debt hitting the market tomorrow - i wonder if anyone has info on that reading this ... would be interesting 

 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Baa Baa Black sheep.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

flesh wound

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Classic.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Come ON

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:34 | Link to Comment Flesh Wound
Flesh Wound's picture

Hey that is my line!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Is it time to cue the deer? Or will that be when Germany loses its A rating for guaranteeing all the debt for its shiftless neighbors?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment valley chick
valley chick's picture

not quite yet.....cue... Italy... :)

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It's on now, bitchez.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Like Donkey Kong, bitchez.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Damn I hope Donkey Kong makes an appearance before the weekend.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

European banks already downgraded rating agencies to irrelevant...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

Little more than a flesh wound on a rotting corpse.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Moody's just pissed in a pool full of shit...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

"And now the collateral squeeze is on unless of course the ECB decides to change the rules one more time."  Count on it.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm going to assume it's already rewritten and waiting to to be published.

On a weekend.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Lets start the betting on a failed auction for Italy tomorrow.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Apocalypse Now   

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:36 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

ECB steps in and buys...playing kick the can again. This auction can't be allowed to fail with the Greek election coming Sunday. Monday could be a bloodbath.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:12 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

ECB can't - only in the secondary market.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Lets start the betting on a failed auction for Italy tomorrow.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

"If all agencies downgrade Spain to BBB+ or below, the ECB could increase haircuts by 5% on SPGBs."

What's stopping the ECB from changing the rules?  Its not like these banksters and politicians have let rules get in their way in the recent past

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Send my regards to Baarcelona!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

Evil banker plan:

 

1. Extend easy credit to people/companies/govt.  Skim profits as economy goes wild.

 

2. Raise interest rates/call loans/restrict credit.

 

3. Confiscate real assets and become super powerful.

 

4. repeat.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

JP Morgan was up big today...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Pussy congressmen let Jamie intimidate them today.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

"The Spanish economy's continued weakness makes the government's weakening financial strength and its increased vulnerability to a sudden stop in funding a much more serious concern..."

eeep!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

But Spain will always have the ECB at their backs, right? Or was that the ESM. No it was the WTF. I mean wait it was the LOL.

I forget. Something. Gots their back.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Fear?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Why is it that these rating agencies always downgrade this type of debt near or at the lows?

When 95% of the downside move is already over with?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Because they don't want to be seen as the cause of the decline in value...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

wait...shouldn't ratings agencies rate?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

It's a lot like people who post after the fact comments on financial blogs with regard to what stocks, bonds, commodities, or markets, have done. You should understand this perfectly, Robo.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

So hard to guess who put -1 to your comment (wasn't me) :)

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment larry david
larry david's picture

Why is it that you always tell everyone to buy stocks "pinned at their all time world record highs?"

When 99+% of the upside move is already over with?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I never recommend buying stocks at "world record highs"

 

I only point them out, to demonstrate how strong the market is, especially retail, when so many are predicting "Imminent Collapse".

And to also demonstrate the relative strength of consumer discretionary in the face of horrid weakness in all the "resource" and "hard asset" plays so many have been touting.

If you want a recommendation, I'm recommending JNJ right now, world record volume today coming out of a year long consolidation.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

You mean strong market in retail in stores like LULU. I believe you jizzed your pants over their earnings prowess.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

ha ha you must be so short in your positions for that one

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

ha ha you must be so short in your positions for that one

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

In theory, these downgrades would not help Mario Draghi's EuroSystem Sponge Bob's 212.000.000.000 Super Absorbancy SMP portfolio performance, but he is a hold to maturity type of guy.

With a view to leaving liquidity conditions unaffected by the programme, the Eurosystem re-absorbs the liquidity provided through the SMP by means of weekly liquidity-absorbing operations.

 

http://www.ecb.int/mopo/liq/html/index.en.html#portfolios

Because he must have Spanish sovereigns* in there, too, right? 

It seems to me that it would be hard to sterilize so much shit, but what do I know?

I am just glad it isn't my job to keep Europe afloat.  Those of you on the continent better check your dive gear.  Glub glub.

 

*Under the SMP, public and private debt securities are considered eligible for purchase.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

NWO banksters have successfully collapsed the Eurozone countries. Will they be able to take over the countries without use of NATO forces? They will probably hang the bankers instead.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Euro Monster
Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

Yawn, so it's like running up to your high school buddies and telling them you fucked Skippy Waddlebaum and they inform you that everyone has, how do you think she got the name "Skippy" she spreads easy. DOH!

Really, it was not so dramatic the last time they shafted the bond girls, no internet but the runners really got tired of carrying tweets back and forth from england to spain.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

I think they misspelled BAD... and published BAA3 instead. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Err so hows that collateral in the spanish banks looking after this? Does that 100b bailout look a little light now? Guess we see some reas stress tests now?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Spain Loses Final A Rating With Moodys Ddowngrade

Save that extra "D", we'll need it for the next sovereign bond rating adjustment

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Man, this gonna get real ugly.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

The fact that Moody's is even still in business tells you what a cognitive illusion investors are living in.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment vistar
vistar's picture

does the ECB take into account the rating of the fourth agency DBRS before requiring more collateral? they rate spain A+...kkk

http://www.ecb.int/paym/coll/risk/ecaf/html/index.en.html

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Moody's, what a joke.

When are those pricks gonna give triple hooks to the USA?:

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment justsayin2u
justsayin2u's picture

Bbbbbbut debt doesnt matter - just ask Cheney and Bush and Krugman and all my other MMT friends - thinking debt is bad is out dated.  Print, stimulate, spend, party, more government, more roads to no where more solyndras and teslas - more more more i say - tell them to turn those machines back on and print print print.....

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Dam! I'm going to need a HUGE TUB of POPCORN this weekend. Right MR. Bloomberg?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 19:45 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

lol get yourself a gun too, Mr Scarface

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Amidst all of this there is good news.  Spain has invented the self-making bed. Next step the self-making bank, followed by the self-making economy, and no one has to do any work, just enjoy life.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!