Spain Refuses To Be Bailed Out If There Are New Conditions
And so the fly in the ointment arrives as beggars are not only choosers but have completely lost their minds. As we explained very, very clearly over the weekend in "In Order To Be Saved, Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed", the market, courtesy of its primary function of discounting being completely and utter distorted and destroyed thanks to central planning, "priced in" the fact that Spain will be bailed out in the only possible way: by making a Spanish bailout next to impossible, sending its bonds so much higher that Rajoy could not possibly see any need in demanding a bailout (something which as Art Cashin explained further today will very much infuriate Obama). Well, as often happens, we may have been ahead of the market by a few days. And reality as well: because as of minutes ago Spain's PM confirmed precisely what we warned against - that by frontrunning Spain's destruction, and hence rescue, it has doomed Spain to a fate far worse. From France24: Spain will not seek eurozone financial aid beyond an agreed rescue for its banks if more conditions than those already agreed for recapitalising lenders are attached, an EU source said Tuesday." The problem is that if and when the inevitable bailout demand comes, not only will there be more conditions, but Spain will effectively cede sovereignty to the Troika explicitly, and to Germany implicitly (for the full breakdown see here). Which again begs the question: which came first - the market frontruning the bailout or the government refusing to request a bailout on the market frontrunning the bailout and so ad inf.
This is what we said 3 short days ago:
Therein lies the rub: by pushing the funding costs on the short-end far cheaper, both Rajoy and Monti are now certain to not even consider asking for a bailout - after all the market just validated their failed policies (or so they think)! To the career politician and unappointed technocrat, instead of having to ask for aid, the market's response is one which precludes said aid request... Until, at least such time as the market realizes it was once again manipulated by politicians.
the issue is that by formally admitting failure, it means the end for the current administrations, and a career end of many politicians, for whom preserving their jobs is a matter of survival. It also means civil unrest and disobedience, as it means the ascent of the Troika (and implicitly Germany) to the highest level of government control; what it means to the local citizens is one simple thing: relinquishing sovereign control to an external presence. For those who are unfamiliar with European history, the best laid plans which have as their weakest link the assumption that any proud people will willingly cede to foreign control, always are doomed to failure.
Yet this is precisely what the bond market assumed when it sent Spanish and Italian bond yields plunging in the past week.
We give what is left of the market a few more days before the delayed correct re-reaction once again establishes itself, and the push for a formal bailout leads to curve inversion all over again, only this time more jawboning will not be enough, and neither will be Draghi's solemn invocation to "believe him." That bridge has now been burned.
And now back to Spanish bond yields soaring in hope that Spain will "agree" to being bailed out.
The rest from France24:
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is under pressure to call in financial assistance for the Spanish state, not just its banks, but is holding off awaiting a European Commission assessment of new spending targets drawn up for 2013 and 2014.
The Spanish government said on Friday it planned savings of 102 billion euros ($125 billion) by 2014 as it stepped up efforts to bring its strained public finances back within 3.0 percent of gross domestic product, the normal EU limit.
That assessment is unlikely to be complete until mid-September. Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet on September 14-15 in Cyprus, itself in dire financial straits and possibly in need of aid following talks on loans from ally Russia.
"If the Commission considers that the [Spanish] budgetary plan is satisfactory, there will not be a need for further conditions," the EU source said of Rajoy's position, referring to terms for any subsequent loans from the European Financial Stability Facility or mooted European Central Bank intervention in short-term bond markets.
In June, Spain secured a 100 billion euro credit line from the EU for its stricken banking sector but investors fear that with its borrowing costs rising, the country may in the end need a bailout.
Last month, Brussels gave Spain an extra year to balance its books, saying it must bring down its public deficit to 6.3 percent of GDP this year, 4.5 percent next year and then 2.8 percent in 2014.
After Spanish borrowing costs skyrocketed in the interim, ECB chief Mario Draghi last week raised the prospect of direct intervention in the bond markets so as to bring down eurozone borrowing costs -- but contingent on government support and subject to conditions.
"I want to know what these measures are to see if they are adequate," Rajoy said afterwards. "Then I will take the best decision for the general interest of the Spanish people."
Here we doubt we have to explain that by "Spanish People" he really means just one Spanish "person"