Spain: The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since we have grown tired of variations on the theme of "The Pain in ...." (having been guilty of encouraging it ourselves), we will spare readers this triteness, and instead summarize the attached must read slidedeck from Carmel Asset Management as the ultimate Spanish doomsday presentation. Naive and/or idealistic Spanish readers are advised to resume sticking their heads in the sand, and to stay as far away as possible from the attached 54 pages, which prove without any doubt why not only was Greece the appetizer (have your UK law:non-UK Law divergence trade on yet?) but why things in Europe are about to get far, far worse, as the Hurricane shifts to its next preferred location, somewhere above and just south of the Pyrenees.

In summary, here are Carmel's five reasons why Spain's problems are worse than the market anticipates:

1. Spain’s national debt is 50% greater than the headline numbers

Spain’s debt-to-GDP balloons from 60% to 90% of GDP with regional and other debts

2. Spain’s housing prices will fall by an additional 35%

Spain built one house for every additional person added to the population during the past two decades; the fall will decrease GDP by ~2% each of the next two years

3. Spain has “zombie” banks with massive loans to developers and to homeowners

Banks have not begun to realize losses and are vastly undercapitalized

4. Spain’s economy has not stabilized and will continue to deteriorate

Spain has the highest unemployment in the developed world, one of the highest overall debt loads, and the most uncompetitive labor market in Europe

5. The EU will not have the firepower or political will to bail out Spain

Rescue fund headline numbers are misleading and count capital that is not yet committed

And here are the problems that will manifest themselves over the next 12 months:

  • Spain’s true debt burden will pass the 90% “tipping point” identified by Rogoff and Reinhart
  • Housing prices will fall further and faster than anticipated (consensus is 15%; CAM estimate is 35%)
  • Banks underestimate the residential real estate loan defaults (consensus estimate is 2.8% vs. CAM estimate of 11%)
  • Expected housing price depreciation and loan defaults will deepen Spain’s recession (additional 2% contraction in 2012 and 2013)
  • Spain will need to refinance €186.1 Billion in 2012 alone

End result: surging CDS and/or plunging bond prices, if faith in the sovereign CDS market continues to be at rock bottom lows courtesy of ISDA nearly blowing its own head off.

Full presentation:

 

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Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:09 | 2324747 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

This management firm is betting on Spanish destruction to the tune of 300% returns...why not?!  :(

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:08 | 2324748 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

For the folks over in [EU] Experimental Union, your life cycle is determined by the money changers.. Enjoy

 

DEAD CAN DANCE - BLACK SUN

Murderer!

Man of fire.

 

Murderer!

I've seen the eyes of living dead.

It's the same game - survival.

The great mass play a waiting game.

Embalmed, crippled, dying in fear of pain.

All sense of freedom gone.

 

Black sun in a white world.

Like having a black sun in a white world.

 

I have a son,

His name is Eden.

It's his birthright,

Beyond estranged time.

 

Give me 69 years,

Another season in this hell.

It's all sex and death as far as I can tell.

 

Like Prometheus we are bound,

Chained to this rock of a brave new world,

Our godforsaken lot.

And I feel that's all we've ever needed to know,

'Til worlds end and the seas run cold.

 

Give me 69 years,

Another season in this hell.

There is sex and death

In mother nature's plans.

 

Like Prometheus we are bound,

Chained to this rock of a brave new world,

Our godforsaken lot.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 09:25 | 2325986 slowimplosion
slowimplosion's picture

I'm not sure what this is doing here, but I love me some DcD!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:10 | 2324750 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture
Rumors Of An Attempted Coup Have Beijing Totally Freaked Out

 

China's leading military newspaper, The Liberation Army Daily, ordered soldiers to "resolutely resist the incursion of all kinds of erroneous ideas, not be disturbed by noise, not be affected by rumors, and not be drawn by undercurrents, and ensure that at all times and under all circumstances the military absolutely obeys the command of the Party central leadership, the Central Military Commission and Chairman Hu."

more

http://www.secretnews-compact.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=544:rumors-of-an-attempted-coup-have-beijing-totally-freaked-out&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:45 | 2324810 i-dog
i-dog's picture

*Sigh* ... the Chinese are copying everything! Now they're even copying Chairman Obomber and the NDAA (though, so far, they seem to have left out the indefinite detention and waterboarding)!!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:56 | 2324836 NOTfromSanFrancisco
NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture

 

 

Who???... Oh, I see who. Hu... (o:

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:12 | 2324860 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Yes, the rumours. They are gloomy and should be dismissed. /s Never mind that the Chinese military's antipathy towards the 'weak pro-Western' civilian leadership is well known.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 17:28 | 2326607 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Rumors Of An Attempted Coup Have Beijing Totally Freaked Out

It would appeat that 80% of ZH readers believe your story. Not to worry, the same website says:

 

Doomsday Coming, NASA Knows It : Russian Scientist


So it will all be over soon anyway.

"ZH, grooming more sheep than ever before TM"

 

Edit: I should rephrase my TM statement as it is directed at stupid readers, not the Superb ZH.

"ZH readers, growing the flock", doesn't sound as good though.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:12 | 2324756 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So Spain has 90% debt to GDP... So what!?! The US has 107% "officially"!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:23 | 2324781 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Spanish media is mostly broadcast within Spain. Don't ask questions, mainstream media says so. Obey and you'll be accepted.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:57 | 2324837 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes but ours has been filter through the miracle of reserve currency. We could go into the tens of hundreds without a problem just so long as we stay the worlds reserve currency we're just fine!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 17:22 | 2325044 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"just so long as we stay the worlds reserve currency we're just fine!"

 

Well, that last bit's debatable...

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:13 | 2324760 goforgin
goforgin's picture

Yet another stupid doomer article that offers absolutely no solution ever, except for forced austerity. Yes austerity makes perfect sense after 40-years of credit expansion? Not! You are all doomed, except when you're not.  Someone should read Debt: The First 5000 years by David Graeber.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:18 | 2324769 resurger
resurger's picture

you are so fucking wrong, there is a solution, the first word starts with a "D"

GTFO

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:23 | 2324783 goforgin
goforgin's picture

I was predicting the current predicament 10-years ago. Ever hear of Long Waves Forum?

 

 

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:37 | 2324906 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

Cripes, I haven't seen that mentioned in years. Were you a member, too? I never posted much, but enjoyed readig it. Was Freddy Hutter a regular there?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 20:39 | 2325304 centerline
centerline's picture

Haven't heard of it.  Sound interesting.  Can you please share a little more about this?  Also looking for more reading material.  Thanks.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 09:38 | 2326011 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

I don't think the Long Waves forum that I knew is active anymore. It was active back in the late '90s, early Oughts, then IIRC it closed after the owners got tired of all the flame wars. I did a quick search last night and couldn't find it or a successor.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 12:41 | 2326230 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Interesting preview of Debt: The First 5,000 Years on Amazon here:

http://www.amazon.com/Debt-The-First-000-Years/dp/1933633867#reader_1933...

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 21:19 | 2326972 zorbathefreak
zorbathefreak's picture

Smoke another one, brah!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:34 | 2324803 goforgin
goforgin's picture

I should say: typical brain dead commentator. Do you ever think for yourself?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 15:22 | 2324872 goforgin
goforgin's picture

There has to be more than 6 of you? YOU. You are the first ones who will goose-step around the block, first ones to send off your neighbors to concentration camps and then rob their possessions. I read in the real history books all  about you. You are sociopaths that seek to profit at the expanse of the many and lap at this absurd idea of austerity.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:34 | 2324986 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Try decaf..  If that doesn't work liberal application of PB to brain pan..

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:41 | 2324995 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Peanut butter?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 19:25 | 2325225 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

The three precious; AU,AG, PB...

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 17:56 | 2325006 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Who said anything about austerity?  Resurger's D-word is Default.  Least pain for the people, most pain for the banksters.  See Iceland.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 18:14 | 2325114 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Jubilee, and peanut butter.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 12:49 | 2326238 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"I read in the real history books all  about you."

Goforgin - you may not actually know everything (about us), and we surely don't know everything about you.  I'm looking over the preview of the Debt book you referred to and it looks quite good from a historical perspective, although the author seems inclined toward anarchism perhaps, don't know yet.  Thanks for the suggestion.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 14:45 | 2326437 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Do you get up early in the morning to practice this level of colossal stupidity, or is it a natural gift? If it comes on its own, you are a true prodigy of idiocy.

Yeah, the people most concerned about and most against the ever growing reach of authoritarian central power are the ones to worry about.  You really dont understand politics or philosophy, do you? Yours is the blind support of a sports fan for a team, nothing you say gives any indication that you have even the remotest idea of history or the difference in political ideologies.

"An Oppressed Victims Guide to Historical Deconstruction" is not a valid source Sparky.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:59 | 2324838 NOTfromSanFrancisco
NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture

 

 

Why should we bother to read it then if we are all doomed?... Unless of course, we're not...

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:19 | 2324969 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

I downed you not so much for your ideas, but for your use of "Not!". That was interesting about twenty years ago when Wayne's World was still popular. I think the only people who do that now are forty year-old housewives.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:17 | 2324765 resurger
resurger's picture

how much gold Sapin has? i dont think they have much ... i need the link for EU gold holdings which was posted by Tyler earlier.

if they have less than 50 tonnes, no bailout

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:26 | 2324788 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Think a little over 1000 metric tonnes for Spain ... interestingly, little Portugal has lots, nearly about the same I think, with less than one-fourth the population of Spain.

Would be funny if Germany and the ECB start to confiscate the Spanish etc. gold as part of one of these shady Greek-style 'bailout' deals ...

And then when they went to the New York Fed basement to pick up the gold, they found it wasn't there! Ha!

Tim Geithner maybe just shrugging his shoulders ... maybe he'll say the NY Fed lent the gold to MF Global and Corzine ... it was 'hypothecated' ... and then 'vaporised', ha!

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:44 | 2324817 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

I believe "the Gold" will be the "red line".  How many times has Portugal and probably Spain been through these before ?  Why do you think they have Gold in the first place ?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:58 | 2324839 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Ask the Aztec and Inca.

 

 

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 16:34 | 2324985 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

They didn't value it as currency, so they couldn't understand all the excitement. They were introduced to the more useful bronze. 

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 12:53 | 2326249 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

All the better to sacrifice virgins and children with when the 'gods' called...

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:54 | 2324834 ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

Spain had gold stolen from them before, by the Communists... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_gold

 

According to Wikipedia Spain has 281.6 tonnes of gold.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 20:50 | 2325317 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

A Franco era myth... The gold was payment for arms as the democratic countries of Europe regarded the coup and following savage war as internal affairs which were not to be meddle in. Since Gemany and Itlay didn´t have that view Francos forces had several re-armament sources. The government had no choice but to pay exorbitant prices for Sovjet mil surp.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 01:52 | 2325661 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

\The government had no choice but to pay exorbitant prices for Sovjet mil surp...The gold was payment for arms /

An Obummer era myth.

The Stalinists stole everything they could, and demobilized the only effective opposition the "left" had: the volunteer brigades of FAI\CNT militia who's forced withdrawal from defense of the Ebro sector signalled the collapse of Republican resistance. With the death of Durruti, the war was over, save for the rats fighting over the spoils.

Left to themselves, the Socialist\Anarchist coalition in Asturias and the Basque region had the capacity to produce adequate small arms and ammo in the Mieres and Santander munitions factories, while the CNT controlled auto factories in Barcelona were quickly retooled to roll out armored vehicles. All disabled and betrayed by the  machinations of the 5th column politico cabal of Largo Caballero and the usual useful idiots of the "Common Front."

Spain needed your beloved communists like a horse needs biting ticks. Just like earlier, in Ukrania, when the people rose, it took a dedicated alliance of Communists\Fascists to put them down again.

MFG client's funds were forfeited as rightful escrow for JPM's socially aware support of the Great Leaders' revolutionary mobilization of the Zamerican working classes' struggle for jobs n justice!.....

wheeeee, dis is fun!~,let's make up shit n call it history!

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 03:17 | 2325729 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

"wheeeee, dis is fun!~,let's make up shit n call it history!"

 

Right back at ya... 

 

My family was more or less held hostage for three years by you beloved rag tag gang of socialist militias. You can sit in your moms basement with your red and black flag and dream daydreams about the glory of the Spanish anarchism but truth be told they where no better than the fascists they were fighting.

 

And about the thought that the republican forces should have been able to match the fascists backing from Italy and Gemany because of three factories in northern Spain... Are you really that daft? Stop reading those anarchist books and realize that Spain, if face with an enemy militarly backed by Gemany, will always need help from the outside. 

 

Paleto de mierda....

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 09:23 | 2325943 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

 

You would do well to employ comebacks of your own invention, rather than those of your interlocutor...otherwise, you leave yourself open to the suspicion of being not only unable to properly research your subject, but lacking in the wit to make a case for your own argument...

Had you the least comprehension of the events of the Spanish Civil War, you would realize that the acronym FAI\CNT refers to the anarchist brigades fighting in the Republican ranks, not a "socialist militia." A mistake of such fundamental nature is a dead giveaway of the  ideologue puffed up with the misplaced pride of his imbibed factionalism. An embarrassment even unto their own, I greatly fear.

But why let facts stand in the way of an impassioned rant seemingly backed by a minor tragedy?  Your family was "more or less held hostage for three years"    ???  Do you have the slightest notion of what horrors happened to millions of families, during that debacle, that would warrant you to moderate the pathos of your supposed grievance?  NPI...hijocito! NPI!!!!

Paleto de mierda?????

I could call you chingadero, puta de madre. maldito cabron, or a thousand other insults - but to do so would serve no purpose other than to signal my discomfort with my opponents' charge[piensate!] ....so I shall merely call you a rather mediocre intellect, with an outsized sense of grievance and entitlement...and a hectoring tone that would be well suited to the party hack whom you apparently model yourself upon.

Y al fin, the Spanish people, if faced by any enemy other than themselves, will need not do anything other than remember whence they come from, and of what stock... Suevi, Vandal, Celt, Iberic,  Basque, Berber and so on, and then act in the same spirit of resistance as Viriathus, Don Pelayo, and those many others of a tradition foreign to your spirit and intent.

Monday edit: I see yu managed to creep back & uptick yur own comment, Senor "Cocinero Sueco" -or is it Senor Cochino Sueco?  U really aren't the sharpest knife in da kitchen r u hombrecito?

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:32 | 2324800 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

In the 16th century the spanish empire had most of the worlds gold.  Hopefully they buried some of it.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 18:07 | 2325098 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Like some of the posters here, they lost much of it when it went for a boat ride.

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 17:37 | 2326626 smiler03
smiler03's picture

A Gold boating story that is actually true, Bravo!

Mon, 04/09/2012 - 11:53 | 2328165 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Spain Just got the Odyssey stash three weeks ago! 500 million in gold/silver headed to Museo Archeologico Nacional(Madrid)!  

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 23:41 | 2325510 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Literally tons of it in the Great Spanish Cathedrals and the Bank of Spain,but we would rather starve then part w/it! 

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 12:35 | 2326219 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

Thats all gold leaf. The real gold was stolen by the Jesuits. Rumor has it the pope sleeps on a bed of solid gold...

Sun, 04/08/2012 - 12:40 | 2326228 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Only the alter at Seville is "gold-leaf" there is tons of solid gold everywhere,but it's not for sale.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 14:18 | 2324771 Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

Sounds bullish.

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