The Spanish Riotcam Has Arrived

Tyler Durden's picture

Spain's honeymoon with its new government is over.

Following months of hope that Spain will somehow tiptoe around the sensitive topic of austerity, despite promises of such and slow leaking of bond yields wider, yesterday the government promised to generate savings of €27 billion of about $36 billion (Spanish GDP is less than one tenth of America's, so an equivalent US cut would be about $400 billion), as demanded by Europe, but which will leave a harsh aftertaste with the general population. As Reuters notes: "The central government could meet its target but there's still a risk from the regions and the social security budget," economist at Madrid-based think tank Funcas Angel Laborda said. "I get the impression the central government has created a budget it can meet but has left everyone else in a rather difficult situation." Well, technically no. After all what Spain is doing is following the Greek playbook page by page, as expected back in October 2011 - first Spain sabotages its economy, then it demands more money, then it promises austerity, then it never keeps its promises but in the meantime, Germans are on the hook for hundreds of billions in more bailout cash. At the end of the day (for the euro), it will be they who are in the worst position, but since they get to retain their export partners (whose current account deficits the Bundesbank funds), all is well. That is, at least, until this latest unsustainable bubble pops.

Furthermore, as noted yesterday, it will be Spain's regions that are about to become front and center for the bond vigilantes:

The regional authorities, which account for around half of the total spending budget and were responsible for a large part of the fiscal deviation last year, must slash their own deficits in half this year.

 

But, with few details on Friday of how the central government cuts will affect the regions - a full breakdown will be published on Tuesday - it is still unclear if Madrid's austerity comes at the cost of the 17 autonomous communities.

 

What is clear is the regions, which hold the purse strings of the much treasured state health and education systems, will be forced to make unpopular cuts which could fuel growing public anger like that seen during the general strike on Thursday.

 

Marches across the country saw violent flashes for the first time since the crisis began last week as frustration erupted at the government's failure to address the 23-percent unemployment rate which rises to almost 50 percent for under-25s.

 

...

The economy is expected to shrink by as much as 2.7 percent this year and could find little to spark growth if the government is forced to raise taxes to meet this years 5.3 percent deficit goal and the target of 3 percent in 2013.

 

Rajoy was wrong to push Brussels for a loosening of the original deficit goal of 4.4 percent of GDP for this year and should have asked instead for a two year extension of 2013 target, an editorial in the left-leaning El Pais wrote.

Recall:

Is Spanish Regional Debt Out Of Control?

 

Spanish regional debt currently stands at 13% of GDP and has surged from EUR60bn in 2006 to over EUR140bn currently. As Credit Suisse points out, the top four regions account for the majority of GDP, two-thirds of regional debt, and, with the exception of Madrid, substantially missed their deficit targets. What is more worrisome is the heavily front-loaded nature of the maturing debt with substantial refinancing needs in the next 2 years and this regional debt is split between bonds and loans - with many of the latter from Spanish banks - yet another illustration of the interconnected contagion that is building more rapidly. The growing crisis in refinancing (liquidity and costs) for regional debt developed the idea of Ponzibonos 'Hispabonos' - debt issued by regions but guaranteed by the central government. The conditionality of these guarantees with regard to deficit targets wil be critical but once they are issued, the risk is that the regions are unable to get their finances under control, the Spanish debtload increases, and there is no longer the flexibility for a regional debt restructuring, should one be necessary.

 

Spanish regional debt has grown dramatically in recent years...

But the refinancing needs are massively front-loaded (and rely not just on markets but the banks to roll loans also)...

As a reference, front-loaded means the can can not be kicked down the road. It has to be resolved soon.

So as Greece is supposedly fixed, at least until its 3rd bailout, which was hinted at yesterday by the PM, Spain has once again officially joined the fray.

In the meantime, the people are less than delighted with this latest episode of mean reversion, sometimes incorrectly called austerity, as can be seen on the following pictures from last week's General Strike across Spain, which morphed into a less than general riot. Since more tax hike are imminent, we will very likely soon have to find a local version of the Syntagma square riot cam, preferably one situated in the middle of Plaça Catalunya.

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Moneyswirth's picture

Nothing to see here. 

redpill's picture

Now this is what I call sport!  College basketball was getting boring.

erg's picture

We can only hope brothers and sisters.

Imminent Televised Event: Mass Arrest of 10,000 Global Cabal Masters

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eKhTUU35X4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjZgsRt8PBc

Banksters's picture

Fulford is so full of shit he makes my colon envious.

erg's picture

I never heard of him until today. It would have been a better interview if had kept his mouth shut.

Real Money Wins's picture

Rise up, brothers and sisters.
Turn your eyes and open your hearts...
to your humble benefactor,
your spiritual shepherd and dictator for life,
the Deacon of the 'Deez.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The roof the roof is on fire.

The roof the roof is on fire.

Burn motherf*&cker burn.

Think for yourself's picture

fyi, this is the sick kind of hope.

Externalize your desires,
expectantly sit in apathy.
Powerlessness in its fullness,
outsource your course...

Sam Clemons's picture

Plenty of time until the people are thoroughly turned to debt serfs and the sovereign gold is exchanged for a bailout.

Michael's picture

Bread helmets sufficed for the Egyptians.

Eireann go Brach's picture

Looks like a regular Sunday in Spain when Barcelona are playing Real Madrid in La Liga!

natty light's picture

Hey where are the Irish? Gonna pay that parcel tax to pay bankers laddy?

oldman's picture

@moneyswirth

OK--nothing to see?

Right, well coming to a theater near you in 5 to 10 years-----------try getting to an ATM in these nothing to see scenes

they are the same as you as I as we------it is truly US!

But, OK I understand the reluctance just to be a prole-----but this doesn't change the fact that we are proles

Life is easy, especially when you stand back a bit from it                thanks           om

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Social Unrest, bitchez

Gidas19's picture

The picture with the balloons seems pretty violent...

bob_dabolina's picture

The Dale banana and juice truck also seemed pretty sinister in the vid.

Sizzurp's picture

They need a riot dog.  El perro de disturbia.......

Conman's picture

Awww how festive... they brought balloons. Spaniards are even more lazy than greeks. Riot till 3 then siesta time.

Gidas19's picture

why work when you can riot, throw couple of molotov cocktails around and get a bailout?

Gully Foyle's picture

Conman

Allow Noel Coward to enlighten you

Mad Dogs and Englishmen (Noel Coward) In tropical climes there are certain times of day
When all the citizens retire
To tear their clothes off and persprie.
It’s one of those rules that the greatest fools obey,
Because the sun is much too sultry
And one must avoid its ultry-violet ray.

Papalaka papalaka papalaka boo,
Papalaka papalaka papalaka boo,
Digariga digariga digariga doo,
Digariga digariga digariga doo.

The natives grieve when the white men leave their huts,
Because they’re obviously definitely nuts!

Mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun,
The Japanese don’t care to.
The Chinese wouldn’t dare to,
Hindoos and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve to one.
But Englishmen detest a siesta.
In the Philippines
There are lovely screens
To protect you from the glare.
In the Malay States
There are hats like plates
Which the Britishers won’t wear.
At twelve noon
The natives swoon
And no further work is done.
But mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.

It’s such a surprise for the Eastern eyes to see
That though the English are effete,
They’re quite impervious to heat,
When the white man rides every native hides in glee,
Because the simple creatures hope he
Will impale his solar topee on a tree.

Bolyboly bolyboly bolyboly baa,
Bolyboly bolyboly bolyboly baa,
Habaninny habaninny habaninny haa,
Habaninny habaninny habaninny haa.

It seems such a shame
When the English claim
The earth
That they give rise to such hilarity and mirth.

Mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
The toughest Burmese bandit
Can never understand it.
In Rangoon the heat of noon
Is just what the natives shun.
They put their Scotch or Rye down
And lie down.
In a jungle town
Where the sun beats down
To the rage of man and beast
The English garb
Of the English sahib
Merely gets a bit more creased.
In Bangkok
At twelve o’clock
They foam at the mouth and run,
But mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.

Mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
The smallest Malay rabbit
Deplores this stupid habit.
In Hongkong
They strike a gong
And fire off a noonday gun
To reprimand each inmate
Who’s in late.
In the mangrove swamps
Where the python romps
There is peace from twelve till two.
Even caribous
Lie around and snooze;
For there’s nothing else to do.
In Bengal
To move at all
Is seldom, if ever done.
But mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
exartizo's picture

What fun! I do so love a great poem! 

Excellent Gully!

Dre4dwolf's picture

When a foreign bank comes to your country and says you owe them money, and you never borrowed a dime.

 

This happens.

 

centerline's picture

No big deal.  Germany will make it all better.

Fluffybunny's picture

The protesters are Teenagers who are taking drugs handed out by Al-Qaida

 

oh wait, wrong riots.

misterc's picture

The Tylers are pathetic. Public unrest at that tiny scale can be seen every year in throughout Europe around soccer matches, 1st of May in Berlin-Kreuzberg since the 1980s etc. 

To make mountains out of molehills.. 

centerline's picture

The commentary is predictive - asserting that more of this is the come.  Considering the extent of the issues, do you really think this prediction is pathetic?

Really it is just a matter of time.  Same for other EU nations and the US.

misterc's picture

Oh yeah, like some burning trash bins changed anything in Greece (except Allianz lowering forecast because of broken windows etc).
Maybe ETA and their followers will take out some politicians, but even that wouldn't change a thing. 

Remember, in Greece a few people were burnt to death inside a bank, even that didn't change the course of events.
So why bother with this riot watching?

 

(Oh yeah, please junk me already for my non-orthodox opinion) 

The Swedish Chef's picture

ETA has surrendered and is practically dismantled.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You are correct.  And the deaths in that bank were in a very early riot.  An accident.  As measures became more outrageous, the riots did not.  They became more calm.

Nothing is going to change until firearms are used.  Until then, this is just people walking in the street and talking loudly.

toady's picture

Thank you!

I keep saying, until all the cellphones taking these pictures/videos become handguns these 'riots' are just for show.

debtandtaxes's picture

"just for show"?

Should they stay home and play xbox 360 instead???

 

toady's picture

Yes, they should.

Unless they are really serious. Then they should pawn their xbox for a handgun.

Cathartes Aura's picture

when do you supposed the eleventy million handguns in amrka will come out of the closets?

toady's picture

That is the question!

Most other countries don't have populations with large populations of gun owners... This could get messy.

Cathartes Aura's picture

doubtful.

the last century has shown that amrkn guns get used within communities, used in anger against "neighbours" or family - rarely are they used against the tyranny of the overlords.

toady's picture

Agreed, but back to your original question;

What will be the final insult, the straw that breaks the camel's back?

in4mayshun's picture

No more Starbucks or cigarettes- game over!

Cathartes Aura's picture

as I said, well over a century ago, the old "wild west" legends. . .

different time, different peoples - fewer distractions, more hard work just to live - just trying to be true to what I see, and I don't see much dissent in the masses as yet, despite all the going shopping for weaponry.

which is fine, but let's not pretend there will be uprisings any time soon - as long as TeeVee stays on, scheduled pacifiers like sports seasons and "holiday events" & Sunday Skool, etc. - I just don't think amrkns believe they need to do much beyond their normal routines right now, whatever those routines look like. . .

for what it's worth, I do wish it was different.

toady's picture

Losing the tv.... That would probably be the end of the road.

Sitting in a major city, or even the suburbs, for a few days with no tv would push most merkins over the edge!

oldman's picture

Toady,

IMO, tptb have more fear of the loss of the atm/credit card system. Shut the banks down and everyone goes into the street.

How is this accomplished? In many non-violent ways----at great sacrifice if done by protestors blocking access to banks, but then how many can they put in jail in a given city? Or by getting the bank employees to stay home--no chance of this.

Or by the rest of us calling in 'sick' for two weeks----doing-not-a-thing.

Solidarity could be more than just word in the US of A                             om

joe6px's picture

In the end it is the individual that changes the course of history.  The talk of unity or 'gung ho' (look it up) only happens on the small scale.  Rant all you will on the internet.  Shut it (the internet) down if you control it.  The real difference comes from local organization and the ability to affect change in local government.  A corrupt government cannot rule without consensus of the localities.  The major cities are lost...as corrupt as any...move to an area where we can make a difference.  The original folks fought a losing (edit: shooting..) war..0-8061-2397-4.


Angus McHugepenis's picture

Never. The PTB are quite happy letting you work out your anger on a licensed range.