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As Spirits Soar, Two Bubbles Worth Watching
And now for something off the beaten path. As the title implies, while the rest of the world is transfixed on the usual bubble candidates in traditional asset classes, two of the bubbles currently brewing well beneath the radar are a second derivative on the uber-wealthy class in China and Hong Kong, which appears to have a very disproprionate impact on spending patterns for ultra luxury goods, in this case cognac and Swiss watches. Not only that, but investing in these up and coming bubbles has some useful externalities: one can drink cognac, while a Swiss watch can be melted into its constituent gold or platinum once the inevitable hyperinflation finally hits. Alternatively, as these are some of the most marginal products available, any changes in consumption patterns here will be the first indication that the Asian party is ending...
Source: Goldman
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Asians have traditionally showed an insatiable thirst for luxury goods and bling bling.
Id rather see something that speaks of the average table earnings in Macau. Some of these whales are limitless. Some aren't.
Talking about Macau, my Japanese friends tell me that the banks are pushing loans (with newly printed money) with the proviso that they invest in foreign companies. No collateral needed, no personal guarantee. So two of them took these loans out and opened gift shops in Macau. I was told: Free money no risk. I guess Japan bets in exports by force win or lose.
Peak Opulence! (I has it). Now we just need to track dwarf giraffe and gold grape sales! ;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkB9OT2XVvAYou can order your giraffe here:
http://www.petitelapgiraffe.com/
I am still waiting for mine to arrive.
Oh boy: http://www.armadamarkets.com/2012/03/saudi_explosion_wti_crude_oil_fire/
Today was whacky. I wonder if this treasury selloff has legs.
It was an interesting day to be a market watcher. The last few years have been and I'd be a liar if I said I didn't love it.
Cheers!
GML
...bullish...
Dammit, my $350,000 salary won't afford this after my kids go to private school along with my fancy cars!
Did you read how that one guy experienced Deep Paralyzing Fear of the thought of not being able to afford his $30,000 gold club membership?
Either way, funny how Finland only ever appears in alcohol (as above) and school shooting statistics.
The death of Kim Jung Il is a black swan?
Trade-able items that you can carry on to an aircraft, hmmm.
Just a thought...if you're bartering swiss watches and brandy, what kind of air travel you doin'?
If u want to carry tradeable items on an aircraft, just put some gold coins with the rest of ur change. When ur wallett passes through the metal detector, the security won't be able to tell the difference between the gold & ordinary coins.
Living in Jersey, I'm sure they won't be able to tell gold from the modern day quarter at Newark International. /sarcasm.
Actually the cool russian accented customs guy I spoke to when I was taking my gold out knew everything about all different kinds of bars and coins (even the face value of the coins!).
This is terrible, wrong information. Security won't be able to tell the difference between gold and ordinary coins. BULLSHT! Those scanners read density at the atomic scale (note paper currency doesn't show) so your gold will be opaque (highly visible) to the scanners and trip an indicator, just like uranium would. If you are serious, try using some lead slugs mixed in with your quarters the next time you board a plane. The minders will closely check your change. Tell them you are a plumber with working pocket change!
The best tradeable items are registered share certificates of blue chip stocks. (can you say bearer bond-like) You could have a registered 10,000 share certificate of DuPont in your pocket when you board the plane and no one would know nor would it trigger an alarm. Any broker would research your registered shares, verify your registration with the database, your ID with your passport and thumbprint and then buy the shares. All perfectly legal. VOILA, you are in Canada with a small fortune. Or do you want to go from Greece to Costa Rico? In any language, voila, you are here!
Have you actully used this tactic? I am interested in this as well as any other thoughts along these lines. Milestones
Not that I would ever do such a thing - because it would be **wrong** - but it has been suggested in print another way to move assets across borders invisibly involves high-value collector-grade stamps. But then, I read a lot of trashy novels.
The sale premium added into a Swiss watch of whatever high cost will not fund a getaway from an Asian contagion- only gold will do that, or diamonds. What if the heavy watch is just a knock-off, a sad joke gone full circle? Go gold or stay at home. There is no alternative. Nobody ever fled the evil empire wearing Phillip Patek. Give us a break, this analysis is so weak.
Except.
Unless.
You mean to tell us to flee with registered share certificates, so we can sell, say, 1000 shares of IBM to any registered broker anywhere in the world, for the local currency? That's a great way to move money anytime you move, with no ringing metal detectors.
"Nobody ever fled the evil empire wearing Phillip Patek"
As "official records" clearly show....
NOT diamonds, which are artifically inflated in price by the De Beers cartel.
PM only. Period.
I've taken in a hectolitre or two of cognac in my time...and I've got four guitar-shape bottles of Henessey X.O. that will be the very last thing I defend when the zombies come knockin'.
+1. Obviously junked by someone who's never tried it...
FWIW, consuming anything beyond a simple home-cooked meal, or wearing anything beyond a simple loincloth, is indulging in luxuries. To each his own.
Lafite Rothschild vintage wine prices off the boil....that was the leading indicator for me.
Then your head is in your arse. No offense. Just sayin'.
Gold swiss watches are sold at over 1000% premium. Do u really think that when gold doubles or triples ppl are going to sell their watches back into the market for a fraction of the cost? O_o
A world where a bowl of hot soup is a fair trade for a gold watch is not inconceivable.
As we are often reminded, "In Philadelphia it's worth 50 bucks".
Bottoms up bitchez!
lmfao, if you buy this crap you are waiving the white flag. What could the price elasticity possibly be of a fucking watch when SHTF? Sun dials, my friends.
Sun dials are way too expensive where I am headed when the SHTF.
ah, drinking the spirits
my thoughts are soaring
but, alas , my posts are boring
Your posts may be boring, but mine flat suck. +1
6 Old Chubs do no t a scholar make.
Oh cheer up sports... You both maybe small, but you're slow too.
Since shit is hitting the fan in a big way within about 2 months (obviously), I would advise rechargeable batteries and a pocket inverter. I mean, since were gonna have a full blown trade war and everything...
Google trends for use of the word bubble:
http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bubble&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
This one is even better:
http://www.google.com/trends/?q=student+loan+bubble&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Tyler how come you dont have any articles on Andrew Breitbart he was a really Good Guy!!
I did try melting my Swiss Swatch watch into gold. Didn't work. Tried it again. Didn't work the second time either. I think I'll go Bernanke on this one, 'cause sooner or later it's got to work!
I get it!
the pattern is not going to change, as china's inflation and bipolarization is not ending.
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/
the 'swiss watches' are knock-offs and the 'cognac' is from ernest&julioGallo, modestoCA&theWorld
how much you want?
Made in China to return to former self. Chinese showing up for work both late and drunk.
Well, you could also keep the watch as a heirloom and pass it down the generations.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kngBtoylIVM&feature=related
See Pulp Fiction. .....up his ass.....
Sorry, wrong article.
What's the symbol for the 2x short swiss watch ETF?
Drunk as a fart but they know what time it is.
Drunk as a fiddler's fart.......
This Tyler, in particular, skeeves me out. The degree of insight keeps me up at night (literally).
They are freaking watch nuts in HK rolex and hublot shops on every corner- like 7-11 in detroit.
Not the first weird Asian bubble. Did anyone notice the Pu-Er Tea bubble that ended in 2007:
http://www.teacoffeeasia.com/categoryblog/177-puerh-tea-bulls-and-bears.html
When it burst, the multiple other bubbles in the Chinese & HK economies were left intact. So I'm not sure what information content these cognac & wrist-carbuncle bubbles might have...
While the Eurozone and USA wank themselves to death in a splurge of easy money liquidity at ZIRP or 1% handed out to their insolvent banks to play casino royale with, the BRIC countries are grinding their teeth as this money floods their markets in carry trades whereby their local currency is revaluated and their product pricing jacked up artificially.
Dilma Rousseff of Brazil has just reacted violently to the ongoing currency war waged by FED/ECB on BRIC nations, resluting in commodity price inflation and monetary revaluation.
Brazil slams rich countries over 'currency war'
Anyone sees an vintage guitars bubble ?
'59 Gibson Les Paul burst ... soon to reach a million price tag.