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Spot The Housing Bottom: New Homes For Sale Drop To Lowest Ever; Average New Home Price Plunges To 2012 Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Looking at the headline number in the just released New Home Sales data one would be left with the impression that the tepid "recovery" in housing may be chugging along: after all with a seasonally adjusted annualized 372,000 new homes sold in July, this was an improvement to the revised 359K in June (ignoring that the US housing market at best continues to drag along the bottom). This impression, however, promptly changes when one looks at the underlying data. The reality: the actual number of new homes sold in July was 34,000, the same as in June, and the lowest since March. Of this, a massive 3,000 (yes, three thousand) homes were sold in the Northeast in the entire month. Where things get worse is when one looks at the number of new homes for sale. At 142,000 (of which just 38,000 actually completed), this was the lowest number. EVER.

And finally, to ruin all hopes that the housing bottom may mean an actual pricing bottom, the median new home price slid to $224,200, down from $229,100 in June, and the lowest since January, while the average home price declined from $266,900 to $263,200. This was the lowest average price posted so far in 2012.

So much for the housing "recovery."

 

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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:26 | 2730186 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Give me some rope....I'll go down there.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:37 | 2730217 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

while i was reading this article, CNBC announced this as "better than expected" I kid you not.  The only statistic they sited was an increase June-July of 3.63%.  I forgot to turn the sound off after switching over from Sportcenter.  And, as a result, I was subjected to this spin.  I feel like Dan Akroyd in Ghostusters after he got 'slimed'.

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:43 | 2730232 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They are ecstatic over at Yahoo. Better than expected! Hell yeah!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:14 | 2730593 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

where are these $260,000 new homes?

good schools and below average unemployment? o

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:00 | 2730306 rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

same for bloomberg...some d-bag was all happy.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:28 | 2730187 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like a really neat roller coaster. Let me guess. Six (False) Flags outside of Washington DC.....right?

What did I win Tyler?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:27 | 2730188 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wages matter.  Imagine that.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:56 | 2730295 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Exactly, 3 times median income is around 150K.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/56570-what-should-today-s-median-housing...

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:03 | 2730543 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Exactly. 2-3 times median income is the stable, affordable level. Find your areas median income here:

https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/refmaterials/hudmedinc/

 

Even "Hot areas" like Orange County only have a median income of $69k which means the median house price should be approx $140,000 to $210,000.

Looks like we have more "correction' in the next decade.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:28 | 2730192 Precious
Precious's picture

Who knew !

"Despite inventory levels being nearly a quarter below July 2011, existing home sales improve for the fifth consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:30 | 2730200 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

breaking news Lawrence numbnuts just accidentally described biflation

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:34 | 2730208 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

B-b-but Weaselthal told me at least twice already we DEFINITELY hit housing bottom.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:28 | 2730194 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Did you guys dis Hilsenrath?  The market sure did!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:29 | 2730197 youngman
youngman's picture

I agree..no Recovery....we are just rreplacing what is falling down...and yes there are a few "hot" markets...North Dakota for one....but across the board its still slow...don´t run out and get your real estate license just yet...I also know there are many homes in the grey area...on hold..not yet on the market...in lawyers limbo so to speak..

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:32 | 2730204 LarryDavis
LarryDavis's picture

But the National Association of Realtors says the market bottomed in '09? I have a friend with 17 (thats right 17) pieces of property going into foreclosure. Another friend of mine has been living in his house without paying mortgage for 2-3 years. Also, for my boy with the 17 the banks can't locate the titles which will add months to process apparently. There are only so many Russian billionaires to keep the real estate market afloat. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:13 | 2730364 MarkD
MarkD's picture

Crazy.....

I know someone still living in the same house that has been deeded back over to NY Mellon 8 months ago. Hasn't even been contacted by them.

Didn't pay a mortgage payment nor property taxes in over 2 years and now collects SS Disability.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:34 | 2730209 LiesAreTheOnlyTruth
LiesAreTheOnlyTruth's picture

There's a recovery, it's just in the public sector at the expense of the private one. 

Public sector jobs expand and increase in pay (COLA) and benefits (Retirement/Etc.) ... by LAW.  When you MAKE the laws that govern you, you can make some pretty cool ones for yourself :)

On political leaders in power:  Absolute power corrupts absolutely, it's also kinda cool when you have it!

On politicians seeking power: I'm not against corruption, I just want more of an opportunity to participate in it!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:35 | 2730212 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Thing is... nobody buys houses during summer... not in my neck of the woods anyway.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:40 | 2730223 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

According to Mark Zandi the housing market is on fire.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:47 | 2730254 Seek2survive
Seek2survive's picture

Houses on fire aren't in demand.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:54 | 2730288 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

You must not be long CDS.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:18 | 2730380 Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:50 | 2730268 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if mark zandi's house burned down is that irony?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:44 | 2730236 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

I'm closing on a new place tomorrow.  Five acres, nice barn, McDoublewide.  Convenient to town yet in the country, so to speak  Nice farming soil.  $58K.  I sold my old place to the first couple that looked at it.  Same basic mo, $60K, 10 acres, McSinglewide, very secluded out in the sticks, nice garden area with a nice orchard planted.  I had several people very interested with just a couple of craigslist ads.  Key dynamics for both places, low end price wise, low taxes, rural.  Everyone who called on my place was bailing out of the city and looking for a retreat to hang on to.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:55 | 2730284 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

58k$??? Damn that's cheap. You can't even get a 120 years old house in the country for that price in Canada. You'd have to pay 3 times that.

I don't think you can't find a house at 58k$ with 5 acres in Canada unless there has been several murders and rapes in that house.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:18 | 2730615 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Congrats! May your water tables always stay high. Mind letting me know the state? Just curious is all. TIA

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:10 | 2730854 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> Mind letting me know the state?

North Florida, just north of Gainesville.  And as far as water, that part of Florida sits over a huge and abundant aquafer. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:45 | 2730241 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

And unless I am missing it, November is the lowest average selling price month in the last couple of years so we have that to look forward to soon...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:46 | 2730249 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

On NPR last night they had some guy from National Association of Realtors trumpeting the rise in sales and prices and that the recovery in housing was well on it's way.

It's 1983 again.  Break out the marching band and the flag, all is like it used to be.

*cough*

Our apples have worms and we can't afford the flour or sugar; bye bye American Pie.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:20 | 2730634 God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

NPR?

What the hell are you doing listening to that progressive / socialist propaganda for to begin with?

Those scumbag aholes wouldn't know the truth if it bitch slapped then!

Just like Juan Williams who was bitch slapped by them and is to fuckin' stupid / ignorant to learn from his own mistakes!

Once a progressive always a douche bag!

Michael Bloomberg is a case in point of the worst extreme case of the socialist progressive run amok!

Obummer?

He's just an idiot communist raised by a bunch of anti- American commies. To bad he couldn't have spent more time with LO-LO instead of his real father Frank Marshal Davis!

God save the republic!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:41 | 2730995 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

I have a good guess, but what is your news source of choice?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 22:33 | 2732518 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I listen to many sources.

When everything is one form of bullshit or another and you realize it your filters get pretty strong.

Know your enemies, left or right.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:48 | 2730256 adr
adr's picture

When there were 100 properties available and 20 were sold, you end up with 20%.

When there are 10 properties available and you sell 5, you just sold 50%.

HOUSING RECOVERY!!!!!! Sales increase 30%!!

The problem with statistics is that you can really make them say anything you want by cherry picking the numbers you want.

Isn't it amazing that all the economic indicators turned up last month, and now they are pointing down. The statistics are manipulated to give the market excuses for the direction the top players want it to go.

The actual economy doesn't flip directions weekly.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:48 | 2730259 aaronb17
aaronb17's picture

Perspectives are ass-backwards because of finance in this country.  In a sane world, lower housing prices would be a good thing.  Hell, they ARE a good thing for people who actually want to buy houses to live in. 

The problem is that homes are viewed as investments that are supposed to magically increase your wealth while you own them.  Like anything else that's supposed to magically increase your wealth just by sitting on it (and I'm including gold and silver here) they are ultimately completely useless in the big picture.  Wealth just shifts around and decays as game-players try to pass hot potatos around.  The overall net worth of the country decreases due to rent-seeking behavior. 

On the bright side:  My family lives in a home we own free and clear.  We purchased this home for 25 percent of the price estimated by zillow.com, because the bank wanted to unload it quickly. We pay neither rent nor mortgage (although the property tax is a pain since the house is valued by the county at 4 times what we paid).  

This economy is stressful as hell, but the low housing prices are actually offering some relief, if you take the right perspective. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:20 | 2730391 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

But what are the margins?  How much does it actually cost to build a house?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:21 | 2730392 moonman
moonman's picture

Your taxes are based on FMR of your house. Challenge your assessment. most attorneys will charge one half of your savings of first year. I bought my house for well under town assest price and fought it myself. It was easy because i had closing documents and an appraisal.

"I purchased my house in an arms length transaction from an unrelated party, with neither party under duress"

Saved $1279 a year

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:52 | 2730276 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

cue NAR bullish sound byte from asshole Larry who barely speaks english (appropriate considering no one American is buying homes)

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:52 | 2730280 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

One could have walked around my neighborhood and figured out this was coming back around.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:52 | 2730282 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Home: noun -- A place where one lives; a residence. 2. The physical structure within which one lives.

So large carton boxes are not stealthily included in the data?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:15 | 2730599 De minimus
De minimus's picture

Only if they are waxed to keep out the rain.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:53 | 2730283 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Tyler,

 

You should show the un-adjusted chart and overly the adjusted headline number released.  I'd be curious to see if the gap is expanding over time.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:58 | 2730300 Aquaman
Aquaman's picture

Hilarious.  CNBC reported "Home SALES UP 0.7% from Last month!"  Of course those fed mouthpieces dont tell you that July sales are TRADTIONALLY the highest month ( go back the last 10 years and see for yourself).  This isnt the start of some trend; this is seasonality. On further inspection, as this article correctly points out, this isnt anything to celebrate.  In fact its quite the opposite.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:01 | 2730304 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Why do May/Jun/Jul have 1000 EXTRA home sale each in the totals?

LOL. The tricky "rounding". There goes your .7%.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:47 | 2730481 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Bullish! BTFD!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:56 | 2730509 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Mark Zandi, what a fraud he is. And I hate it when Zero Hedge keeps posting the truth. How am I to believe in the tooth fairy this way.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:59 | 2730525 Geruda
Geruda's picture

 Why do so many stupids think having prices are that are being higher is a good thing to be having?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:37 | 2730719 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Keynesians.  Thats how many.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:01 | 2730532 Gimp
Gimp's picture

My fav Kramer lines:

"Housing has bottomed, time to buy"

"Buy the banks"

"Bull market break-out"

NOTE: These opinions are Jim's only and if you keep losing money by following his recommendations - dat be dat

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:10 | 2730557 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Last year the WSJ reported over 107 months of house supply. That's a lot of houses and builders have been eager beaver's since then adding to that supply.

 

107 Months to Clear Banks’ Housing Backlog

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/10/30/number-of-the-week-107-months-...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:10 | 2730568 God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

Zandi is nothing more than a scumbag shill!

Along with the rest of them,

Liseman, CNBC numbnuts asshole number one and the one dude I used to respect above all others, Ron Insana, who is the biggest sell out I have ever seen!

There is no worthy coverage at all during the day!

Bloomberg is trying to outdo CNBC for the most worthless network!

All need to be viewed with the mute button on.

Fox needs to get rid of Asman and let Liz Claman(HOTTIE) use her brain a little instead of just batting her eyes and acting like a stupid little freshman schoolgirl!

Come on Liz, stand up for yourself and act like the mature beauty you are!

God save the republic!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:12 | 2730578 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

*Yawn* Call me when prices are 50% lower and the foreclosure swamp is drained, then we'll talk housing bottom.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:57 | 2731055 Haager
Haager's picture

It is bottoming when Hilsenrath says it is.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2730697 hannah
hannah's picture

did anyone look at the NON_SEASONAL numbers from NAR yesterday? hint hint...the numbers were actually negative not positive.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:56 | 2730791 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's a buttum!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:12 | 2730860 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Consumer confidence plunges, mortgage application stuck in a rut, the fiscal cliff approaching. Calling a bottom is impossible.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/23/housing-purgatory-new-home-sales-rise-but-consumer-confidence-plunges-not-a-good-sign-for-housing/

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 16:51 | 2731649 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I'll start reading these articles in 2030, if I'm still alive.

Fri, 08/24/2012 - 21:31 | 2736027 rjs
rjs's picture

what would home prices be if interest rates rose back to 2011 levels & people could only afford the same monthly payment?

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