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Spot The Odd Commodity Out
Oil is dropping rapidly once again - while the rest of its commodity peers remain tied to the USD movements this week. The reason? More market speculation that the House of Saud is doing everything in its power to send crude to lows just ahead of the presidential election, even as Infinite QE takes the Dow to 36,000. Just as we wrote yesterday.
WTI is down 6.2% this week as Copper/Gold/Silver hang to USD's strength-implied weakness...
and from pre-Bernanke...
Chart: Bloomberg
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What are you going to do with your QE3?
wed
The algos read on the newswire that the power generating plants to fire the Chevy Volts were converting to burning FRN's for electricity conversion... Hence the move...
Bernanke would have more success stimulating the economy if he rode a tiny moped. "Bernanke's Bearnanke Folly's"
http://americandad.wikia.com/wiki/Boris_the_Russian_Circus_Bear
I suspect all commodities will join Crude's bearishness.
Better just focus on oil.....cause Grandma doesn't give a crap about gold.
Holy Shi'ite! Fake gold!
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19578206/fake-gold-bars-turn-up-in-manhattan
Do you not actually bother to read the thread you are posting in anymore?
Not to mention that the ZH thread yesterday on this topic got 52,000 page views and almost 500 comments...
~~~
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district
It can be hard to click on page 2 I guess.
lol
THERE IS A PAGE TWO????
Sadly, no page 6 though.
The hell I don't sonny! It tastes better than this damned prime cuts in gravy!
The PPT can gyrate, mutate and sodomize oil, slv and gld all they want but food is soaring....seems barry can't control food prices.
commodity market is small. ben is 2 steps ahead. they want $ in stock market, not commods. will manipulate commods down. would expect precious metals next to get waxed.
Crude is a special case ... AFAIK storage facilities are full or near full , tankers are parked with full loads... the refined product has a shelf life that cannot be ignored and it must be produced for winter and summer...
Metals production is pretty much redlined at 110% you can't push it up...
"wed"
That reminds me, enough with the meaningless financial headlines, did anyone see the true news story today: "Was Jesus married?" Which got me thinking of a number of possible answers:
1. Yes, but it was an open marriage
2. Technically, but it turns out Mary M. had documents with 6 other guys so the whole thing was swept under the shroud.
3. Yes and the temple reception was a blast, that is until the bankers showed up
4. Who wants to know?
5. The marriage was simple but the divorce, oh vey, there was no end to the community property
6. The reception food was fabulous but the wine was watered down
7. If I answer, do you promise not to burn down my embassy?
8.
9.
10.
This happens when trying to "manipulate" the market. The crcen price movements in the short term. However, in the medium term, market forces will always prevail. In any case, we have a great opportunity when prices rise. And we can also benefit when prices fall. Finally, it is not our fault that the authorities committed many errors.
Hammering oil futures was arranged prior to the QE announcement. All the broke government allies are in on it together, in an attempt to bail out the banks, keep the status quo, re-elect Osama, maintain power for the elites, and hide true inflation.
To believe otherwise - that there is some kind of a 'free' market' driving commodities - is a bit naive.
It will work....
....for a few weeks maybe.
let's just call the SPR what it is... The "Incumbent Re-election Slush Fund"...
If you view oil as money, like I do, then the SPR is the world's biggest slush fund.
they don't call it the Petrodollar for nuttin.
question is: how big is the SPR actually?
funny, it's always been the "odd commodity"
I hear Neil Simon is working on a stage interpretation
No, thats commodity not comedy.....
Badda bing!
stealth spr release w/ no announcement - is that even possible?
either that - or somebody wants the oils down before Israel opens Pandoras box ... Sep 25th, if the rumors are not just that: rumors ...
Thank YOU NOPE!! I was wondering how long I would have to put up with all the witty stupidity post before someone NAILED the facts!!. I can tell you, there is not one trading vehicle that the Fed doesn't have complete control of at this point. Oil was run up for Goldman and their like to get ripe short positions on the QE annoucement...Down 7.50 in three trading sessions at this point (WTF)!?!?! Gold and Silver are being set up for a crushing too (and I'm a big holder of both physical and paper).
Ben has his Fu**ing fingers in everything that anyone on the planet can trade - (especially if the vehicle reveals inflation) Yet only a few in advance know what he intends to do before it happens. Helen Keller, you and I can see this - Why do all others struggle to get it??? Dow will hit 14,000 by October 15th, oil will trade around 78.00 and Gold will trade around 1690. BECAUSE BEN OWNS AND CONTROLS IT ALL!!! True price discovery is complete history!!
"I'm surpressing prices!"
"I'm issuing false flags through re-captured mass media!"
"Hookers and Blow!"
What am I going to do?
Watch political dogma hit the wall of reality Karma of supply. Nothing to see here, take it for what it is. Cheap oil for a little while.
The price is elastic and so far with the dogmatic shinanigans on supply we've recieved a couple of things.
Fer christ-sakes...I'm in farm country in Ontario and attempting to locate diesel was tricky this summer. Can't imagine anything good comes from this except the price snaps back to where it should be. WTI 180 and Brent 198
BTFD. Saudis can artificially suppress prices only so long. They need lots of $$$ for their military to hold their masses in check.
Where's Nancy P. complaining about the 'evil speculators?'
at this point it doesnt matter who wins..
Rumor has it that oil is abiotic.
It must be avatar that allows you to pull off the sarc like that...
"You were a little hard on the Beaver last night...."
LOL
That's Bob Dobbs. The world's greatest salesman and my personal savior.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qt9MP70ODNw
Fuck that, everybody knows that oil comes from comets.
- Immanuel Velikovsky
Exactly. Worlds in Collision. Everyone should read it. Guy was brilliant. He actually explains why Titan has a hydro carbon OCEAN. Hint: not from dead dinasours
Right, now when does the next shipment from titan come in again?
This has to be the greatest example ever of Poeing a thread....
Tell us what you think of AGW, you can do it, you're on a roll!
It is but it requires the pressures contained in the earth to make it happen. We can do it on the surface. It would only take a year to make a limited volume that was already paid for and spent. Growing oil requires the energy of oil to make it. The magical natural process takes 150,000 years couple of miles beneath the surface of the planet with temperatures running fairly high for a sustained period of time.
From the production of abiotic oil...it requires about 1800 barrels of energy in joules to manufacture one barrel of oil. People would be more sympathetic to burning kittens for household heat and power generation.
Hey! We could achieve energy independence and create jobs by getting people use vise grips and magnifying glasess (only during the day!) to convert kerogen into oil....
Woah!... BACK UP... We could be burning KITTENS?!...
it's also an antibiotic
and a dessert topping
It can also be used as part of a salad dressing.
You're soaking in it....
OT But interesting...
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19578206/fake-gold-bars-turn-up-in-manhattan
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district
uh...you're a day late. Tyler did a whole thingy on it yesterday.
Hard to keep ahead of these guys!!
Thanks
LongSoupLine...
That's right,,,food stamps did away with your handle.
yep...for now.
To print so much and oil go the other way things are definitely amiss.
The House of Saud wants Israel to be a glass covered parking lot? Who knew?
Jews for Barrack Hussein, what a concept.
The banks are taking a break from buying treasuries with printed money, and are instead shorting commodities and PMs.
yay...recovery.
And equities roll on trading toy stocks up or down a penny every now and then while the world boils around them.
I take it back. Looks like the Fed fron-run brigade has had their breather, recharged, and ready to bid it up again. Who's a seller in this market, really? But it does make you wonder what the hell is going on with oil ... things are going just too swimmingly for these central bank devils
It ain't dropping at the pump, mofos.
Starting to. Down .07 here in Knoxville (2%), TN since last Friday.
It's dropped .15 here in Indiana.
So far......so good.
Down $0.10 in MPLS since Friday.
Even though it is obviously artificial and short-lived, I'm happy to see my investments (metals) up and my cost of living (oil) down...
Central planners have fucked us long enough. It is nice to enjoy a day in the sun!
even if it is the eye of the storm, 2008-2012 storm hitting us, today the eye, and then the storm passing us 2013-2017.
Getting a break on oil prices in this case is like getting your daily ration of rice in North Korea. Just what it takes to keep you alive one more day and working for your masters until the day they choose to finally break you.
Sounds like you attribute far too much control of your life to other people.
Indeed, until the weather changes of course. Could be tommorrow, but enjoy the gift for now.
Global demand collapse and promises of more supply - A big FAIL on both accounts.
Wake me when it goes below $90 a barrel and then BTFD.
WTI at 92 and change is right at its 50 dma and well below the 200.
Brent making a golden cross right now.
BThisFD.
Could be oil traders are catching on that oil isn't a good currency hedge when demand is falling rapidly.
Nothing is a good 'currency hedge' against QE to infinity.
The Saudis better deliver this time or the credibility of their 'Excess Capacity' story is shot to hell.
I recall that they promised to pump more oil to replace the lost Libyan supply when that country was being 'Liberated'. Didn't happen. Won't happen this time either. The Saudis are about to have their 'Swing producer' bluff called for the first, and last, time.
They've been watching Europe and come to the obvious and logical conclusion that it's only what you SAY that's important, there's no longer a requirement to DO anything.
both excess capacity and capacity stories are bull
oh god here comes the existing home sales recovery bullshit
Yeah I just got the news alert from CNBC on my phone. I think I have to wipe it off from their orgasm over the number.
The Matrix is really starting to lose it when they feel the need to push propaganda such as a recovery occuring mere days after the central planner announced his grand plan.
Yes, and equities are up...all is well.
/
I don't know if it's the house of Saud or not,but I do know that I am sick of this country making deals with the devil. I'm tired of so much outside influence on the politics of this country, along with our meddling in the affairs of others.
I am not American and I can say that many people outside America see you as the devil. Not you but your financial and millitary interventions. It would be interesting to take a poll of how peeps outside your country percieve America.
I think you may be suprised.
I am selling my house because I think I see what the Fed QE will mean for my financial welfare here in africa. You print , we have to to maintain exchange rates. Food and energy inflation here hurts.
Wonderful fucking world where some fuck wit overseas ctrl P and I see the shit storm coming. So much for my freedom and liberty when my welfare in the hands of your fed.
You should quit voting for leaders based on their headdress. If you can vote?
Dup
we uh, will do anything to keep the empire fed. That's what empires do.
"The american way of life is non negotiable" Don't worry mr. cheney, the math will soon negotiate it for you
RECOVERY!
As was pointed out yesterday, Saudi Arabia doesn't have to increase production to get the price down.
THEY CAN JUST LOWER THE PRICE OF WHAT THEY SELL. No refiner is going to insist on paying more than KSA will accept. NYMEX means nothing. It's Saudi oil. They can price it any level they like and NYMEX will just have to adjust to it.
It's all bullshit and always has been. KSA hit new highs this past summer on domestic consumption. They subsidize oil domestically so consumption is climbing far faster than any increase in pumping they might claim. This means they can say "sure, we'll increase production of oil, but sorry, we're going to burn it all ourselves and what goes out to the world market will decrease."
And, the Saudis can do this for now. But it won't work forever.
For those who don't understand:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
They would rather have oil explode up from $94 than $104 when they start the war.
Today's announcement by the CFTC will no doubt be akin to their last one as they hapily announce their intentions later today to vigorously look into the cause of this move just like they did earlier this week when oil plunged. And will announce their findings in four years or after they have ruled on Silver manipulation. Which ever comes first.
So the naked shorts come out.... look for an SPR release to cover their asses.....
Obammy calls in past reach around favors from his bankster butt buddies.
The world is about to fall off a cliff in production. The right side of the world's production curve is being drawn mathematically by tapping and depleting the least valuable energy sources.
Thanks to IrritableBowels to pointing out page 17 in the PDF below...
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/presentations/ActivityandProjectionsWilliston2010-08-03.pdf
That, ladies and gentlemen, is what the right side of the world's production curve is going to look like.
Enjoy...
And plant a garden.
In fact, tapping oil resources that deplete like that GUARANTEES the shape of the right side of the curve.
No one dares challenge the extent of my doomsterism but accuracy is everything and you're wrong, guy.
Page 17 is the decline profile for a Bakken well. That Is Not Globally Typical. Shale wells are horizontal. "Horizontals die vertically". That chart shows the verticality production profile post peak of a horizontal well as it dies.
But most wells are not horizontals. Conventional wells die much more gradually than this and somewhat by definition, conventional wells are the majority.
Presently producing wells in the world decline at about 5-6% per year on average. The Bakken's well count is exploding and will serve to steepen that 5% number, but not by much.
So no, that's not what the right side of the world's production curve will look like.
I hope you're right.
I thought Bakken wells started with a high initial production and then fell quick. Essentially starting at the peak. From the looks of that graph and the words used to describe it I can't see where that is, "after" peak. It looks like it starts at day 0 of production and goes out from there.
Also, conventional wells produce the majority of the oil but with how quickly the Bakken is being drilled arent there going to be more unconventional wells than conventional?
Absolutely correct. I'm glad you saved me from pointing that out.
However, I think there is a case for a steeper decline, globally.
Vertical wells exhibit standard curves until you start doing secondary or tertiary EOR. Then we're right back to a vertical cliff. And what do you do when you peak? You start pumping.. Then injecting.. So on.
The end state is a rapid decline, followed by negative EROEI.
I think I will be challenging your doomsterism on this one :).
If we did just stick with conventional wells which deplete at 5-6% then the global decline rate would be 5-6%.
Instead we're also tossing these quick-to-deplete wells into the equation thus changing the slope.
I'm not sure I have the math skills necessary to actually calculate that slope though...
No, I addressed that.
The well count of horizontals is spiking and WILL affect the 5% number and steepen it, but that count is diluted by the much, much larger number of conventional wells accumulated over 100 years.
Many of these "producing" conventional wells are in someone's Texas back yard and produce 10 barrels a day. Uncle Jake gets up in the morning, drinks his coffee, saunters out to his pickup truck and drives out to the wellhead on his land. He flips a switch and pumps the 10 barrels out that accumulated via drainage overnight, then switches it off 10 minutes later and goes back home.
Presto, $1000 earned. That's $365,000 per year for flipping a switch on for 10 minutes.
The point being, next year that well will pump 9.999 barrels/day. The decline rate will be very shallow on a well that close to dead. If you average that well with all the other counts, and you realize how many of these near dead wells there are, you don't get vertical post peak graphs for the whole world.
The average is about 5%/year. Don't sneer at 5%/year. It means we have to increase production 4+ million barrels/day from new fields just to breakeven.
Well it is the 5% per year that will lead to a (moar) broken economy which won't be able to buy those 10 barrels of oil from some guy in Texas. When that happens what happens to the curve?
The world of oil is much better understood if you ignore price.
The price of oil, as it were, is 5.6 million BTUs per barrel. Expend less than that getting that barrel and you're ahead. We are currently.
But we're expending more and more BTUs to get that barrel than we used to in the past and this is the underlying cause of the present Apocalypse sweeping the world.
This is physics and it predates money. Remember that economics is all handwaving bullshit and money creation on a whim. Physics ignores all that.
OMFG you're right I missed a "/d"
Sorry about that.
well said crash
now go out and teach the rest of the world
Pg 23 is quite telling as well....
That is scary. I've got a water geologist friend who's been pulling out her hair about that for 10 years.
And as a testimony to why we are really phucked,
3 people gave you a minus just for pointing out graphs that show Geological realities.
Truth hurts I guess.
Based on pg 23, too bad Denial wasn't a river in the Dakotas....
Yes, and page 17 show how much the Bakken will help. 400,000 barrels a day.
30 plus years of fartin around with the field and that is the best it gets.
400,000. and we use 15-18 MILLION barrels a day.
400,000 means as much as fly shit on a cannon ball. It's a rounding error on our consumption
BAKKEN WILL SAVE US.
Actually they pumped upwards of 500,000 barrels out of the Bakken in June. That is monthly, not daily.
What the Bakken produces in a month the world consumes in 12 minutes.
North Dakota reports 609K barrels Per Day in July.
They will be rolling over soon. There is some evidence accumulating of it, but the number is 600K bpd. Not 600K b p month.
An analysis will be coming out at TOD soon that will show that the initial flow rates from the Bakken wells have declined nearly 20% over the past 5 years.... In other words, the low-hanging fruit of the Bakken has already been picked....
this one was a good anticipation
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8697
OMFG you're right I missed a "/d"
Sorry about that.
Don't sweat it SelfGov. The terminology and units guarantee a mistake now and then. Like "production". There is no production. There is extraction.
Anyone who can post a picture should post a "MISSION ACOMPLISHED" pic up.
Or a picture of a dead Osama.....and that picture of Barry with that cigarette dangling from his lips.
I wonder what the futures are on horses?
Depends on the market for Purina. Sad but true.
With all the shit about to hit the fan in the ME this smacks of manipulation down to blow out longs in prep for the money shot.
It looks like it's just big speculators opening/closing positions based on statements by the Saudis that they will increase production, there were rumours on Monday, one press report on Tuesday, and it's in the MSM (Financial Times etc) today.
This will have a half-life of a day or two, like every other piece of 'news' driving the markets at the moment.
A few days from now it will be some other piece of news pushing oil up again, maybe falling production at North Sea fields, increased risk of war in the ME, or a hurricane in the Gulf.
Meanwhile the consumers will keep on consuming oil, and the producers will keep on pumping it at the same rates they are currently pumping.
"Meanwhile the consumers will keep on consuming oil, and the producers will keep on pumping it at the same rates they are currently pumping."
You do realize this doesn't work? The planet added 1 billion people from 2000 to 2010. That's about 275,000 PER DAY.
Pumping at the same rates they are pumping is not good enough. That's about what they've been doing since 2005.
Now you understand where the upheaval came from.
and the wars and the Patriot Act and everyone shutting up about all the banker and government crime and....
By the time the air is out of this debt bubble we are going to be drowning in oil.
No need to drive to the job you no longer have. Unless we are all going to pull a Falling Down.
pods
The more Saudi Arabia pumps the faster their oil depletes and the less spare capacity the world has, they are and they will throw everything at the oil price yet Brent (the real oil price) is still way above $100, I can’t imagine how would Brent react once the market understand that they have no more bullets.
Yes, and the constant is that we pumped 85+ million barrels today that will NEVER be pumped again.
Regardless of the price. 85 yesterday, 85 today, 1 cubic mile a year that will never be pumped again.
Once it's gone, it's gone.
Yeah, but we got all those neat plastic shopping bags that we can scoop up dog shit with, not to mention those nifty collapseable water bottles for the effort...
The US has over 400 years of oil in the continent alone (+ Alaska).
Ask me how much I care about the porcupine caribou or Spotted Owl, or Delta Smelt, or whatever animal the eco-fascists are trying to save.
The answer . . . zero? Can I fill up my beemer for less than $100 a tank? If so, I am happy.
Are you ignorant or do you simply make shit up?
Its time to start to print oil. Uups, this happens already in the future markets. Problem solved!
Would you rather own piles of paper money in Euro, Yen or Dollars or oil?
you mean, paper oil? it is the same
Seriously BTD
I doubt that the Suads care who wins the Presidential election. they will come out just fine with Obama, and just fine with Romney.
Instead, a lot of people are looking at the obvious slowdown in the economy, and what do people use less when the economy sputters? oil.
We need oil so we can be further impoverished thru cap and trade.
They would never manipulate a market. Ask Gary Gennsler, he would never lie.
Won't be using oil soon ...
many have been saying this for 40+ years. Any new evidence to actually present? We await you insight...
The question is... Can the manipulators pound oil down long and hard enough to significantly affect gas prices?
My car blew up, guess what, my garage found a piece of tungsten in the gastank.
Let's see....... Obama= no Keystone pipeline, Romney=Keystone pipeline. Yup, sounds like the Saudis are on board.
what happened to all the oil the moneymen hoarded in rented tankers a few years back?
so now its quite obvious crude is grossly manipulated which begs the question. .. why wasnt it manipulated down in 07? or even most of this year when fundaments sucked, main street was begging for mercy, or ever for that matter before its sent businesses to insolvency?
Iron ore and coal both have had large declines ( over 30%).
Yeaterday shell said demand from china is down to recession levels.
Today bhp head said china demand for iron ore
is 1/2 of last year now.
So china is having hard landing even if they refuse
to show it.
Gold and silver are as you guys always say
real store of money so QE is making demand.
The industrials are falling as demand from china
crashes.
I think it's that simple QE.. plus no demand equals
strong precious metals weak industrials/ energy.
Because bloated Oct contract delivery has nothing to do with it? Must be that evil Obama trying to get reelected to enact his real agenda that he didn't have time for in the last 4 years.
The economy is tanking faster than expected and commodity traders got caught with Oct contracts that they have no intention of taking ownership.
http://atlantagasprices.com/retail_price_chart.aspx
Add oil prices to the chart and display for the longest time period available.
See if you can spot the signal of an impending recession in the chart above. I bet you can.
Dont buy the "election" bullshit, but what I buy that world economy is SOOO weak that it cant handle higher oil. The princes are scared that the house of cards come crumbling down...
Everyone knows it's incredibly irresponsible behavior, because derivative and leverage-induced moves in one direction beget equally swift derivative and leverage-induced moves in the other direction.
I think the Obama-ites will be much more prudent than the McCain supporters were in 2008, however, and not risk its going too far and bleeping the markets.
Note that while Paper Oil is going haywire, the US quietly approved exempting Japan and most of the Eurozone again from serious Iranian Oil sanctions.
The Saudis are just playing, they don't have the guts to risk hurting future (limited) Ghawar production. Fade the dip. Move on.
Due to QE3 and short covering spikes, all these daily charts are extremely overextended & significant correction expected very soon ~ SPX, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, COPPER, CRUDE, GOLD, SILVER.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
http://trader618.com