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Spot The Odd One Out

Tyler Durden's picture


Presenting European and US equity and credit markets' performance from the Thanksgiving Day lows. Can you spot the odd market out?



from 3/19 (the day before the CDS roll and coincidentally the day before the expected event horizon for Greece):

S&P 500 Future -0.7% at 1395 (0.8x daily standard deviation)

US IG Credit +11bps to 96bps (5.5x daily standard deviations)

US HY Credit +65bps to 588bps (4.5x daily standard deviations)

Europe BE 500 (stocks) -5% at 179.23 (5x daily standard deviations)

Europe IG Credit +20bps at 132bps (5x daily standard deviations)

Europe HY Credit +135bps at 638bps (8x daily standard deviations)

Chart: Bloomberg


Hint: US equities


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Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment vmromk
vmromk's picture



Fire up the Hewlett Packard, you motherless son of a bitch.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

HP needs a stimulus package anyway...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Bernanke won't run QE3 before the US elections, that is now clear.

Gold traded at $1,631.90 by 11:07 a.m. today, for an annual gain of 4.2 percent. That compares with a 6.6 percent jump in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials and a 9.7 percent increase in the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities. Treasuries lost 1.4 percent.

Everybody was betting on QE3 and India's return to the table. Both did not happen so far and the Bernank and the FED won't save Gold since they care more about job creation.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Wanna bet?  Obama's countin' on it.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You're not paying enough for gas, gold, and grub yet?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment economessed
economessed's picture

....and the big tomato smashes the little tomato and says 'ketchup.'

Life is Pulp Fiction

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Let us stop with the puns. In every thread, someone must tard it up with un-funny humor.



Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment ONO47
ONO47's picture

This from a guy, whose name is Cooter.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Wow, I think this is the most junks I have ever gotten on ZH (for a single post).

Let us ... LETTUCE ...

... must tard it up ... MUSTARD ...

I credit MDB, the master troll. I love his posts; it is like chum for the autistics. It is fun to watch.I tried really, really hard to tie in mayo and libertarians, but it just couldn't pass QC. MDB, I am going to snatch the pebble from your hand soon!

I will revel in victory!



Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

Even better, look at the NASDAQ or any consumer index.  Outrageous outperformance for tech toys and self-indulgence.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

not much longer when we look back from Thanksgiving 2012 to today

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It's aaple.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Manthong
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I had to send this comment from my PC because my iPad only allows positive information.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Brian Sack?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The PPT has run out of dry powder. Sack is fleeing and all they can do is support one market so they wisely chose the one that is most docile and most exposed to MSM propaganda.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment data_monkey
data_monkey's picture

Normal is as normal gets.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Credit anticipates, stocks confirm.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

And when E.F. Hutton talks, people listen.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

And we make money the old-fashioned way: We print it.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

I saw a great spoof of the old Smith Barney ad which had John Houseman pointing at a janitor busily sweeping away with the caption, "At Smith Barney we make money the old fashioned way: they earn it!"

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture
UK's total debt forecast to hit £10 trillion by 2015 Britain's total debt will top £10 trillion by 2015, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers, which warned the burden could slow growth for decades as interest rates eventually rise.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment DutchR
DutchR's picture

"Can you spot the odd market out?"


Is it the pharmaceutical company that makes parkinson's medication?

The lines look kinda squiggly...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Can you spot the odd market out?

No, Im color blind

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

snark..... lol

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The Swiss stock market is in lala land, too.

Most of our companies are (mainly) exporting to the Eurozone, but they're still trading at a huge premium to their Eurozone competitors.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

You are supposed to be investing in stocks.  Didn't you receive the memo on Christmas morning?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Ships carrying Iranian oil not going to be insured anywhere in the world.... from anybody including china....

wonder what that will do to equities when 2.2 million barrels per day disappear in July from total global production?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment SAME AS IT EVER WAS

Why is the s&p 500 not deverging? Because the small .01% (corp. exec's, politicians, wall st. casino funds, etc...) who know how the deck is stacked are in the process of unloading (after re-gaining) their worthless equity toilet paper bullshit to their unsuspecting marks (the 99.999% worlds population) through their 401k's, pension funds,  and retail stock brokers. It's just like a gaint ponzi stock/equity(LOL) washing machine equipped with a devilish laundry/spin cycle.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Everything looks normal to me.  Nothing to see here. Keep buying groupon shares. Everything is fine.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Markets diverged from credit in the US, not so in Europe.


In other words, the US markets has some retreating to do.


These guys do a decent and more current job of analyzing US stock indexes.


I use stock indexes to help me buy and sell long term stock positions.  Helps to confirm things. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:55 | Link to Comment gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Everyone knows the S&P is correct and the other 5 are wrong.......... just sayin

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

and oil is bid...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

long buying on the 3pm HFT meltup.  lets see if it holds.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment roguetraderinchicago
roguetraderinchicago's picture

I put it on Friday and it hurts a bit right now!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

But now that Brian's gone...... there's Hope:)

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment erinever
erinever's picture

This just makes me depressed.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

But aren't US equity investors always the smartest investor class out there...?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 22:54 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Ask Bernie.

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