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Spot The Odd (Unsustainable) Economic Indicator Out?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented for your viewing pleasure are ten of the most prescient indicators of the resilience of the consumer and his largest asset (liability) since the 'supposed' end of the recession. We thought the subtle hint at which of these trends is not like the others would help; but, just in case you missed it, it's the part of the economy that is government-backed, subprime-funded, over-inventoried, and entirely channel-stuffed. Aside from all that, entirely sustainable, we are sure.

 

 

Charts: Barclays

 

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Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:02 | 2783486 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Car bubble, FTMFW!

Shit my Volt just caught on fire.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:12 | 2783511 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Gee...    those B-52 toilet seats are a bargain now.  

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:45 | 2783595 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A government subsidized, Ally Fincial financed, shiny new car in every subprime garage!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 21:21 | 2783855 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

sometimes it makes sense to trad in old gas guzzler and buy yourself high mpg cars.

cars dont' last forever....too old then it makes more sense to buy new than fix it.

 

what's the trend line for motorcycle sales?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 21:37 | 2783892 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I can absolutely understand situations where it makes sense for one needing a reliable car for productive purposes (e.g. to travel to and from place of employment) to purchase a motor vehicle they can afford to purchase with cash, or if no other alternative is available, afford to purchase on an installment plan (i.e. credit) with monthly payments commensurate with their wages/income at a not unreasonable rate of interest.

 

The problem is that we're right back in the cycle where people are doing the opposite of these prudent things.

Hair of the dog that bit ya' only works with alcohol-induced, and not debt/credit (whether private sector or governmental-induced) hangovers.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 01:31 | 2784332 Element
Tue, 09/11/2012 - 22:32 | 2784032 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

It has a nice feeling to it. Every college kid should get a new govmotors car. Why the F not - what's another billion dollars or two on top of a trillion dollar student loan disaster about to happen?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:19 | 2783535 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Damn, I thought it was a trick question.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 23:45 | 2784159 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Me too.

Turned out that channel stuffing vehicle sales is the ONLY winner !?

Duh.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:59 | 2783635 saturn
saturn's picture

Put out the fire and put in the footpedals and driiiive: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbHEHQQsjkQ

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:30 | 2783731 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Mine went 52 miles on a solar charge from my home solar system just today, and no fire - that's an extra cost option (about $90) if you want a real cigarrette lighter in yours, like I got in mine.  The power jacks are only for iBling, which I eschew myself.

Seriously, people need cars in this country because we are far too stupid about where we live versus where we work and stuff like that.  So, they buy them.  Even if it hurts.  Probably not sustainable, but once you have a new one, they do tend to last a long time before you need another.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 21:14 | 2783841 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Awwhh, well shit, just hang everybody after Reagan, and tie the rope off to Jimmy's balls..

 

Fixed.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:09 | 2783503 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

bullish! Dow 20k a lock

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:10 | 2783505 Salt
Salt's picture

It should be called the Vampire. (V)olts + (amp)s = taxpayer (ire)

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:18 | 2783530 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Problem is they're the one hemorrhaging!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:10 | 2783508 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

No cash? No credit?

N o  p r o b l e m.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:11 | 2783510 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Great. Only auto sales are increasing along with student debt (both government controlled or heavily influendced). And not sustainable.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/10/bernankes-conundrum-l...

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:15 | 2783521 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

next you are going to tell me that buying a car is not a good investment.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:19 | 2783533 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

a car loan is one of the easiest loans to get

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:05 | 2783655 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

I hope these people with the subprime auto loans don't trash out the cars too much before they are RePoed.  I am looking for some sweet deals on quality cars at auction.

One wonders how the government might handle this.  Maybe I shouldn't get my hopes up too much  Would this be like ForeclosureGate?  I mean....afer all...you need a car to get to work so RePoing a car would be like taking away someone's job.  What's that?  Half the country doesn't have a job so that would be no excuse?  Cool Dude.

Then again we could go cash for clunkers redux and pour sodium silicate into the crankcases of those six month old beauties.  Why do that?  Think of the efficiency gains Detroit would have engineered in the last year.  Makes sense to me.  Then we can have EVERYBODY going back for newer better fuel mileage cars.  Tepid aggregate demand indeed.  It's all good.  Bastiat and his "broken windows" was such a buzz-killer.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 22:34 | 2784034 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

They'll get a chance to modify the loans first before they default on the new terms.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 23:35 | 2784149 Seer
Seer's picture

Cash for clunkers clearly worked!

So, I suppose that for employment problems it'll be "Jobs for Jackasses?"

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:25 | 2783541 adr
adr's picture

Buy a car on a 72 month subprime loan. Pay two payments and wait six months for the car to be reposessed while you negotiate with Ally financial.

Wait one week after the car has bee seized and go to a different dealer and get another car on a 72 month subprime loan.

Rinse, repeat.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:26 | 2783546 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 GM needs to start a repo division. That way they can keep the whole product cycle in house. Cradle to Grave /sarc

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:30 | 2783553 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the crusha

the wood chippa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qWFhDvURLg

it's all the same

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 19:30 | 2783550 Barometer
Barometer's picture

Yeah but you get the capital growth on the car when you flip it

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 22:04 | 2783958 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

buy low

sell high

 

buy low priced luxury car from a fool who got foreclosed on his mcmansion

sell higher  to an idiot who wants to impress strangers with a depreciating asset.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:01 | 2783641 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

I'd walk a mile for a camel?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:09 | 2783666 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Look at how pathetic those numbers are compared to the other modern recessions.

 

Full on RECOVERY folks.

 

And to think how much money they have thrown at it.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:11 | 2783676 pacu44
pacu44's picture

eco earth saving rolling piles of crap for a small fee on the counterfiet fed reserve notes...

 

what could look better?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:14 | 2783682 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Nah Nah you have to look at the S&P index to know how the economy is doing.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:19 | 2783690 TomGa
TomGa's picture

And consumer credit only begins to rise with auto sales.  Correlation?  LOL.

 

Talking about stuffing a channel....

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:25 | 2783709 samsara
samsara's picture

dup

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 20:23 | 2783710 samsara
samsara's picture

An interesting observation on the top two graphs, Look at each line, it shows the recovery slope at each value of the $USD. The 1970's line when we first went off the gold standard, our slope really didn't change that much in the 80's one. But after the Reagan effect, and beyond (espeically the red line current) really correlates well with the adjusted value of the Dollar.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 21:02 | 2783815 Fecklesslackey
Fecklesslackey's picture

This must be what the new normal looks like

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 22:11 | 2783981 rupertq
rupertq's picture

Strategic default on mortgage, buy new car.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 22:27 | 2784026 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

My takeaway is that this IS NOT Preznit Obama's fault. He just play's the game.

Right Reggie?

To big for anyone? Bullshit.

To big for the cheesy fucks who elect to fuck the corpse rather than just walk away.

It's so sad that I'm not going to bore you all with the details but for a smart guy like Reggie to get suckered means we are likely screwed.

Half ass/ lukewarm doesn't fly.

The lesser of two evils remains evil.

Fuck compromise. Hitting the wall at 150 mph is not really better than hitting the wall at 175mph.

Emotion and self serving interest aside???

I'll concede that bush junior was likely the most destructive President since Lincoln.

Give B.O. his second term and watch America ( the idea ) die.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 01:20 | 2784326 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 02:26 | 2784394 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Without Houses I guess people are turning their autos into a home.

Home on wheels

 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 06:39 | 2784678 falak pema
falak pema's picture

their women into workhorses and their guns into ploughshares...No, strike out that last! 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 04:22 | 2784481 intric8
intric8's picture

Without an extraordinary improvement in the employment picture and without a massive credit expansion that gets levereged to the hilt, those red lines aint gonna budge much.

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