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Status Quo Catastrophe Is Served
From Mark Grant, author of Out Of The Box
CATASTROPHE
"Where we're going, it's gonna get colder than Hell."
-Five Easy Pieces
For those that wanted the world to remain in a status quo position it can only be said that the European elections over the weekend were a disaster and a disaster of the first magnitude. The anti-bank, anti-wealthy, anti-fiscal pact, anti-austerity Francois Hollande is to be the new President of France. “Merkozy” is now officially dead; long live the Chancellor. The close warm and fuzzy ties between France and Germany as they cooperated to rule Europe are now a thing of the past. In a second, what was; is now all gone. Finished and all of the King’s horses and all of the King’s men can’t put it back together again.
“It wasn’t just a story was it?”
-The Adventures of Baron Munchausen
Now that France has a Socialist President the story is not over, not even close to over as the next French elections, for Parliament, will roust the nation once more into the spotlight as Ms. Le Pen and her allies assume a new role, a higher ground, and as the financial situation in France deteriorates they may get an even bigger slice of the pie than thought at present. It is not just that Europe is going to be governed in a different fashion but that France will be run differently and with more difficulties I predict than currently thought. The recession and the anger directed at Germany are rousing the spirits once thought dead; France for the French, the Netherlands for the Dutch, Greece for the Greeks and soon we may find the same dreaded tale in Germany as Nationalism rings in the death knell for European unity and for the political parties that flaunted it. It is a rolling thunder all across Europe, that much is known, and the implications of it all will be felt by the people of each separate country. The dream is fading into the reality of a different sun and daylight will mask that which was dared to be dreamed years before.
"I do wish we could chat longer, but I'm having an old friend for dinner. Bye."
-The Silence of the Lambs
The Great Game
To date it has not been played out in the streets but at the ballot boxes. In Greece the second most winning party was not part of the prior coalition at all. Both of the heads of the two major parties in Greece are now calling for either a renegotiation of the Greek bailout package or to overturn it all together. This, my friends, is a recipe for disaster in my view and one that could lead Greece to exit its obligations with whatever calamities that will accompany that move. Quite soon it will come to renegotiate or default and that puts the Germans and the IMF in an untenable position. I fear it is going to become a quite serious game of “Chicken” pitting Greece against the previously formed dictates of austerity and the EU agreement to come up with another $14 billion in new savings by June; which will not be happening. On the other side of the argument Merkel cannot be seen as backing down without a tremendous loss of credibility in her own country so the stage is set for a tragedy of the first order with either a default within the Eurozone or outside of it as Germany could end up demanding that Greece exits or Greece could preempt them and do it themselves. The Lords of Chaos have returned.
"Nobody's looking for a puppeteer in today's wintry economic climate."
-Being John Malkovich
America: The Knock-In Effects
To think that the United States will not be affected by the recession in Europe is fantasy. As the economies on the Continent worsen caused, in part, by the austerity measures then it will be both Germany and America that will suffer as the cutback in demand for both goods and services has a telling effect. Then as Germany and France march to different drummers and as Greece could default on its obligations and send shockwaves through the EU, the ECB and the IMF given the losses they would all have to take; the scenario for America being led back into recession squares. The world is also facing a wholesale downgrade of the banks by Moodys which will cause a very unlevel playing field with the banks thought safe, a small group now, being able to fund with relative ease while the rest of the banks struggle with funding and at levels that will certainly impact their earnings. I imagine that all of this will not help Mr. Obama and that Mr. Romney’s cause will be assisted by the impending economic downturn in America as we roll into the Presidential elections in November.
“Fasten your seatbelts---it’s going to be a bumpy night.”
-All about Eve
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Crank the presses and damn the torpedoes full speed ahead!
So what kind of time frame are we talking about until...well until something happens...
10, 9, 8, 7.......
Dunno.....but I'm guessing you want to be already down in the foxhole when it happens.
I like to watch
Will Krugman be moving to France?
He and Corzine went in on a timeshare.......it may turn out to be a very long time.
they could book in whenever they like at the "Santé"...
If only Europe had a single treasury, issuing debt, with a Rothschild calling the shots, then they might stand a chance...in this race to the bottom.
I already posted this on another thread, but I just have to write it again...
I've been invited to a conference in Caen in January on something or the other that I haven't really thought about yet. The conference fee is in USD. Even if you bring cash to the table at the conference, they will not accept euros but only USD. My guess is that the people in the know economically (and even a few Ivory Tower academics too) realize that the euro is about to go to shit.
The ECB will print, against its mandate and charter, to try to hold this together. And then the US will have to do the same. My guess: lower prices because of the deflationary sucking of debt destruction, then inflation or even hyperinflation in some areas (since this is a political event, the hyperinflationary scenario is a real possibility).
...in the end the peeps will say......" just shove your debt moneychangers"
A very long time. Long black markets, bribes, corruption, and all things physical. Hell, who says there isn't a free market out there?
Wall Street wants to crash the market intentionally to get rid of Obummer and put their darling Mormon cocksuker into office. Bank on it! (Pun intended)
Has BO been a disappointment to Wall Street?
What kind of timeframe!? Shoulda' been years ago! We're overdue!
EUR-RIP
ASAP
Be careful what you wish for. You may even get it, in the end.
I'm tired of getting it in the end. What's worse is the government and the banks don't even supply the vaseline.
But Gav what happens to the PMs if we see the euro go away? I know it is fine for someone over in Germany, but those of us buying in USD...well....
So, would love your thoughts on what happens to PMs in USD if the EUR goes belly up (or tits up for the usual ZH crowd)
Trav is forming the self fellating white guy party. From his mom's basement...
I like the dramatic quotes in between paragraphs. Nothing says I can't properly illustrate my points well without help like dramatic quotes everyehere.
My favorite:
.
"AAAHHHH!! WHAT A GREAT MORNING! The sun is shining, the birds are whistleing and...."
"Hiroshima citizin who woke up at 8:16 a.m. on August 6, 1945"
lol
You come up with some really great stuff!!
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Recession doesn't bother me, the war that follows is usually what bothers me. Looks like Europe just can't stay away from war no matter how hard they try to get away from the blind Nationalism and subjagate their populations.
Uhhhh........they might want to think about building an army first. Good luck with that. Check with the Dutch, once their off their 30 minute union break.
Hmmmm...
You do realize you are talking about a region of the world with not one, but TWO nuclear powers, right?
Not to mention large economies like Germany also have large armies, since Europe's fear, until 1989 or so, was invasion by Communist Russia...
Even though the USA are spending countless billions of dollars on armament, european nations are also spending quite a lot of money on silly things such as warplanes, drones and bombs.
Could always nuke the banks I suppose......golly.....I hope it doesn't come to that!
I see so many of you ignorant trolls all over the place here and elsewhere on the Internet. I wish you would think about using the Internet to learn something before opening your damn trap.
Germany, France, and the UK all have modern advanced militaries. As do Italy and several other nations that don't matter after those three. Since the advent of Mechanization, you no do not need large overbearing militaries to fight a war. I thought that was obvious with the US taking out a larger force in a matter of days in 2003.
Having trained with Germans I can speak from experience, they have the capacity to start, ground, and wage a long term campaign with minimal resources. All of todays militaries are capables of this.
Instead of american couch potatoes who for over a century have only seen war in cinemas
or on a tv-screen, europeans have HARD experiences in their families. As Germany was the country to start the two last wars with bitter result for herself and the rest of europe
you can forget about it: they do not even dare to think of military options.( And the french and the british have the nukes, not the germans.)
Also the situation as whole looks bad for Germany: the rest of europe becoming more and more anti-austerity and Germany should not only be stupid enough to defend this position but to wage war for it?
^^ See that is exactly what I'm talking about, you people do not even know enough about the history to be aware that Germany did not start World War I. That was the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. Germany invaded France after Russia declared war. FFS you're on the Internet already, you could at least look this up.
War is coming, no matter what ignorant simpletons such as yourself think. It doesn't fucking matter who starts it, because it will start.
um... We have been in some sort of conflict almost non-stop since(I was gonna say wwII) since Roanoke was slaughtered by the local tribes(CROTOAN). Maybe your middle class, sent to college for a liberal arts then on to work for dad's friend existence followed the path you describe, but that is not the case for the many veterans who have served (to use your time-frame) the last century.
Europe has been in relatively light conflict if at all the last 65 years. Maybe that's why they are so blocked up. They need a social/political laxative. Socialism is like living on white bread and saltines; your gonna get impacted...
Good point. I was surprised twenty years ago to find the Japanese have a large navy(defense force). Bigger than the fleet Great Britain fielded at the time. I will say, however, if all the European armies have mechanized forces they lose the advantage we had against Saddam. All things equal out. I'm sure they could go back to the old ways quick enough as they rebuild whatever mech forces are destroyed. Rifles are cheap. I'm not pro-war but frankly I think Old Europe was better than what we now have. Nationalism is net positive I think. Monarchy is a better form of statism than socialism.
summer of 1914 without the military buildup?
The days of massive arms build-ups and resource hoarding have been over for quite some time. Now a modern military can simply carry everything they need for a campaign with them, so no need for massive militaries to support the fronts.
If more people here actually understood history rather than simply being able to quote by verbatim, you'd be aware that the only reason Armies were that large back then was due to the nature of the moving fronts, and the supply lines had to be manned. Now it's all mechanized.
ssshhh dont tel the pentagon that, we need those contracts....
Most of them are getting kick-backs to beg borrow and steal enough money to buy STTDN. read as Shit-The-Troops-Don't-Need. I left the Army with over $8k of brand new kit that was never used, and more than half is still in the original packaging. I'm just one guy that sold easily twice that amount before I got out, multiple that by the thousands of dudes leaving the military every-year and you get the picture.
Can you give us a little more detail on STTDN?
I like to get facts directly from the people involved where possible.
Thx.
Most of it was gear. I have over 20 sets of all 5 layers top and bottom of the ECWCS gear, it's the cold weather stuff. Not the cheap stuff either, the Gortex stuff that is good down to -50*F. Those utility knives with all of the different things on them and they turn into pliers. I have seat-bealt cutters for the seat belts we never had. Extra uniforms out the ass. All sorts of weapon accesssories, and Night Vision related equipment.
I mean I have literally have an entire wall in my standard sized 2-car garage with stacked with boxes of all of this stuff that I never needed. I had to drag it around with me for the 12 years I was in though, and pay for it if it ever went missing. Then at the end they told me that they never wanted it back. I priced it out on Ebay and through various second hand vendors and it's just over $8K. I'm tempted to just start giving it away because I don't want to deal with it.
This isn't just me either, anyone that's ever been in for more a short period of time can tell you about this stuff. It's never ending the amount of waste that comes out of the Military, especially the Army.
If people can get Cell phones, money, housing, food etc etc etc etc just for claiming "victim" status here in the US, the troops can get the best shit they possibly need. Whether they use it or not.
That was a non-sequitor.
Not at all. The army dude was talking about all the money spent on shit he thought was useless. Maybe some of it was, but considering all useless govt spending; troop gear should get more latitude. If they might need it- give it to them; and give them the best.
You're missing the point, we didn't need it. It was given to us because of back room contracts through the Pentagon. This isn't about treating the troops well or anything, it's about the Military wasting money on useless shit and not having enough left over for what we actually needed. Unit budgeting works a very specific way, and the budget had to go to what the Staff in that funny 5 sided building said we need to have. Forget the training and proper equipment that would been useful, it was what the staff said we needed without asking us.
If you can't understand this, then you simply do not understand how the Government budgets everything, and why the government has a spending problem. This is the very core of the spending problem, back room deals and contracts.
Hey, I'll let you carry my ruck and assault pack up a mountain next time for me. That's the same attitude those morons in the staff had, if they have it, it must be good, so let's make sure they have it with them at all times. Have you ever carried twice your body weight at 8k feet? What about up the side of the mountain?
The morons like you wonder why so many troops are leaving the military due to medical retirement. Must be that they are bunch of weak pussies compared to the previous generations, right? Nope it couldn't be because they were carrying 10x more useless shit than the previous generation.
People like you should just learn to mind your own damn business and learn to listen to the actual troops on what they need. As a medically retired 11b30p, I can tell you I do not need a damn seat belt cutter when rolling around in a vehicle that doesn't even have seat belts. I also do not need 20 sets of ECWCS when 2 will suit me fine. What the Army should be issuing is damn socks in country. Ask any soldier that leaves the wire, what's the most important thing to him, it's his damn socks. Wearing the same 4 pairs for a week wrecks your feet. Your other pairs are all rotted already, and the damn PX is always sold out thanks to the useless Pogues that eat all of the fresh food, use up all the water, and buy all of the damn socks.
There's a lot of waste in the Army, and everyone should be listening to the guys that actually pull the missions to fix it, but that would be too much to ask, and would violate the blind nationalism to say there's anything wrong with the Military.
If you want, I can continue this rant all day. I have 12 years worth of experience dealing with idiocy in the Military, and the bearucrats that caused most of it. I could even tell you about my wonderful stay at Walter Reed.
Military bureaucracy is stupid indeed. Did you command require you to carry every bit of gear you owned? Did your Command Sergeant Major make you carry all that shit? If so, either they had to hump it too, or you were blessed with a shitty command. It happens.
You could have bought as many socks as you needed at the PX or through AAFFES online.
Seat belt cutter does sound redundant, because you should have a multi-tool. Most troops want one. What vehicle were you cruising around that didn't have seatbelts? Or a 5-point harness?
You were required to carry 20 ECWCS? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_Cold_Weather_Clothing_System You must have had a huge ruck.
Again, not trying to argue, dude, my point is that Armies need supply. Troops need stuff, and lots of it. Without supply lines an army will be defeated. Ref. Napolean in Russia, Hitler in Russia. When supply lines are cut, supplies are cut. Without supplies they're fucked.
If troops need stuff, they should get the best.
That's all I'm saying.
If you were in Iraq, you did notice those multiple, daily, mile-long (+) convoys running up and down the MSR(main supply route), didn't you?
Oh you mean like the truck loads of cash I was guarding from Kuwait all the way up to Tikrit once a week?
Give me a fucking break, only a small percentage of those actual supplies were meant for the actual troops. The rest was being handed out the to the survivors of the invasion and hostile occupation. The rest of that was paper and fiat for the Iraqi "rebuilding efforts".
Mile-long? What sort of intervals, standard 50 meters that would still get your ass blown up by 155mm shells, or the staggered 100 meter SOP with ECM?
Just to add, Iraq was not a war. The war was over before anyone of you stepped foot in that country.
Don't forget the brand spanking new constant supply of white F-550's. Twenty at a time almost every other day. (you do the math) I'm sure they were "gifts" to our new friends.
I will say however the massive amounts of food, fuel and brown army vehicles were indeed for us. They were no small percentage. Not trying to argue with you, but war is still about logistics.
Funniest graffitti I ever saw was spraypainted on a T-wall on the MSR outside CSC Scania. It said, "Hunt served in this lame ass war!".
The logistics now are all about air power. I have never been on an extended mission that dropped supplies, only ones that brought in air power. Even our missions in the mountains that they called target acqusition, but in reality were nothing more than seek and destroy missions, had no resupplies.We only had what we could carry on us, and often times we would end up raising our own food.
I never spent enough time in a wire to keep track of those trooper's logistics, but everything I ever escorted over the border was either cash or supplies for the civilians. Everything we received was airlifted in, or dropped from birds with us. There was very little if any crew support for troop supply.
I'm seeing the repeat of the nationalist and Marxist movements that were present in 1914 re-surface. Sure, you can blow up another country's industry from afar with air power, but in the end you need to move your people into the land of the people you've conquered. That usually requires a lot of boots.
Who did you say I quoted?
Amazing. Four paragraphs, inept quotations, sloppy sentences finally ends with nothing. Drivel.
It wasn't that good!
lol, thats like that golf joke : I bogeyed the first, double bogeyed the second, triple bogeyed third and then it was all downhill...
Print with Ludicrous speed. All is well.
If you can have France for the French, why not "Europe for the Europeans"? Everyone knows that nationalism is bad. I think the populations are using it as a threat. Rightfully so as their interests are not being respected (or represented). But I think all hope for a better European compact. Nationalism should be the alternative not taken.
And Nationalism probably won't be the road taken.
If there is one thing that France & Germany realize, it is that they cannot afford to go to war with each other yet again. AND they cannot afford to be at odds with each other, since that would mean the EU would go into a tailspin of recession and bad governance. These two nations have always been the engine of Europe, and they want it to stay that way.
So, the Germans will be unhappy, but I do expect a Pan-European QE to take place, along with various measures designed to stimulate growth.
Whether this works or not is another story, but I do think this is what is going to happen, sooner or later.
Embrace global bankerism - for the good of the children!
Sarkozy toasted?
..what a surprise!
Angela Merkel, the French citizenry would kindly ask you to bend over backwards and kiss your ass goodbye.
Never happen, Bernanke and his side kick the tax cheat Geithner will send her wheel barrels full of US confetti to smooth this over for a few months, then it will be bullshit about China bailing them out, then all will be great for a few months, then it will be that their economy turned the corner and on and on till the election is over then the clown show will end.
France still not ready for prime time ! The spotlight catches France farting ! Birka ban to be lifted for Muslim mummies ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Socialist Meat Thermometer Up French Ass
"To think that the United States will not be affected by the recession in Europe is fantasy".
BUT EXACTLY THE FANTASY THAT THE MEDIA PROPOGANDA MACHINE WILL SELL THE AMERICAN SHEEP TILL THE REELECTION OF THE CLOWN.
we will see won't we. No doubt the US has already been affected by europe, as I recall some vast amounts of funny money went their way thru the normal covert back channels and, no doubt, to french banks. Fascist or socialist, the math leads to the same end game
The bonuses will be huge!
I would have given you an up vote, but your screen name repells me.
I'm REALLY over vulgar humor. Had a surfeit of it for decades now.
Peace.
"pssht! We got a turd in the punchbowl. Report, a turd in the punchbowl."
yes, they (the powerhungry fools) fucked it. blinded by their own BS and drive to "unite" coûte que coûte. this failed policy has to stop, this financial inbalance is ruïning the economy (and not the other way round as often presumed in the MSM). the leverage of free currency is going to work the other way now. For God's sake, let it crash already, it's dragging us (and everyone) into the abyss. elite can only be elite and on top if they do not fail. that's the natural order of things.
what happens after is that it will descend in partial unions, between business partners. if you know europe, you know that it can be chaotic, but it is also very resillient to (any) change. so... decentralisation.
that also means we'll have to start from scratch as far as a united Europe is concerned, after the fools have blown themselves up. Europe as an economical power will then shortly suffer but has the opportunity to be free once again, to determine a new course. I'm afraid though the idiots are going to give away real assets to the chinese, just to postpone the status quo, the chinese who seem to be the only ones that understand that this system is finite. Also... we need our gold back for stabilising after the inevitable chaos.
where is the gold?
Hollande will be about as different from Sarkozy as Obama was from Bush. America does not have a monopoly on false left/right paradigms, puppets and rigged elections.
_______________________________________________
Compare gold and silver prices
Finally. +1
NidStyles, and anyone else who believes that Europe will see another war on its own turf:
Who exactly is going to go to war with whom, that is, who will line up in an alliance with whom?
Will there be only two alliances as in WWI and II (Central Powers and Allies in WWI; Axis and Allies in WWII)?
What will be the common denominator of the various alliances?
What will be the objective of the alliances?
Exactly which country is going to roll tanks into another in Europe without massive worldwide condemnation?
Where will the US line-up, that is, which currently non-existing alliance will the US become a part of?
How will any president get that through Congress, asking it to declare sides in Europe when nearly all of the western European countries are all NATO?
Is NATO going to be brushed aside?
Which European country will attack US troops in Europe?
When will these alliances be created, and what will the rest of the world do when they are created?
Who is going to nuke whom, and what will be the rationalization for being the first to use nukes?
What is Russia going to do with a European war at its front door?
Where will the old Warsaw Pack nations line up?
Who will roll their tanks into Mother Russia?
Who will roll their tanks across Eastern Europe to get to Mother Russia?
Who will be willing to sacrifice their country in a nuclear holocaust with Mother Russia?
Which country has the overwhelming support of the population for a third European war?
Who will be the first to shut down intelligence sharing among NATO powers?
Will the US allow it, or will the US hand out intelligence to all NATO countries so no one country or alliance has secret military plans against another?
Just a few questions that your blanket statements about Europe having another war need answered. The simplistic (or because they are written with such faux-authority, should I say sophomoric?) statements about war in Europe make those who predict another European war the ones who need an education before posting.
-30-
I don't especially think there will be a war in Europe soon, but you could have said the same thing in 1913. Hell, back then all the rulers were blood relatives!
As a mental exercise, I will tackle your questions:
Who knows who will fight whom? It could start with small countries, maybe the Balkans again. I would bet, however that eventually France and Germany are on opposing sides.
Could be two alliances, could be a bunch of regional conflicts and maybe a combo. Maybe the north will want their money back from the south...
Common denominator? No comprende. Is that the one on the top or the bottom?
Massive Worldwide condemnation!!!??? That is a relatively new phenomina(sp?), and only Britain and the US are concerned with such trivial nonsense.
Personally, I hope we sell arms to both and get back to that wonderful capitalism we used to espouse. However, I think if one of the sides speaks English we will ally with them.
How did the President get congress to pass that "health care" obamination?
NATO??? I thought that was us(US)
The country with the most "charismatic" totalitarian despot socialist strongman thug will attack american troops. Probably because he knows Americans are lazy capitalists and therefore will not fight back( Ala Hitler, Tojo, Saddam, Bin laden etc etc.)
Alliances can be made on the fly with whomever: US-USSR WWII. easy. The rest of the world?! If they are strong countries they will take over weak countries. If they are a weak countries they will be fighting the strong countries/ abusing their citizens. Just like always...
Nukes? Good question. That would make a great office pool.
Far more likely that the US will attack Iran...........
National Front... errr.... isn't DIVERSITY great! :)
Got the Bamster into Harvard Law. Doooohh.....
this ridiculous thread of puffed up armchair generalissimos reminds me of my childhood games of Risk. thanks to mars in scorpio for a bringing a bit of reason to this effusion of juvenile chicken hawk machismo. given the fact that the Russians are now threatening US/NATO missile defense systems in Eastern Europe while Europe becomes increasingly dependent on extensive natural gas pipelines from the east might even bring a bit more of serious perspective to an extremely complex geopolitical situation.
besides that and the new theaters of conflict now ranging across Brzezinski's arc of crisis as outlined decades ago in "The Grand Chessboard", and the strategic conflicts erupting across the African Continent to stem Chinese influence across Central Asia and economic inroads into the mother continent, it is more than apparent that we are entering into an entirely new and much larger scale conflict than that intimated by the idiotic speculation about a resurrection of archaic nationalistic European hostilities.
meanwhile, it's my roll and I am attacking Southern Europe with five armies from Macedonia. bwahahahahahahaha.
the same dreaded tale in Germany as Nationalism rings in
Not in Germany. The US/UK destroyed German nationalism - it exists only in the propaganda films from Hollywood and political comic strips. Germany has been neutered by the Anglo-Americans to be exploited by France ad nauseam - that was the deal the US cooked up with France over German Rearmament in 1957......and the string-puller behind Euro Bailout Fever is Obama with Wall Street not European Voters.
Forget the virgins. We're fresh out of virgins.
"The French and German plans for Europe". This was a quote from an expert on BNN just now. I see it is the USA/UK plans for Europe.