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Stay Long Gold
As gold pulls back under $1700, back to 6 week lows (and Silver collapses in its high beta way, reverting back in line with Gold), Morgan Stanley says 'Stay Long Gold'. The recent sell-off notwithstanding, they remain bullish through 2012 and while the current USD strength is a headwind, they expect aggressive Fed action (and other global central banks), including the likely adoption of QE3 in 1H12, to be gold positive. Deciphering the demand and supply dynamics, they forecast prices to rise on a quarterly average basis through 4Q13 as the four pillars of their bull market thesis persist.
Investor Demand
- In our view, the timing of the sell-off in late December suggests strong selling pressure linked to year-end book squaring, portfolio adjustments and commodity index reweighting. Furthermore, the sell-off also coincided with an especially sharp rally in the TWI of the USD, a strong headwind for gold given its USD pricing and quasicurrency function.
- While we expect European funding stress to continue in early 2012, recent coordinated actions by six central banks and separate actions by the ECB suggest that non-gold related measures to ease access to USD swaps will be successful, reducing downside pressure on the gold price.
Consequently, gold prices will again depend on whether the four pillars of the original bull market persist:
- (i) decline in producer hedging (and potentially de-hedging as a positive demand factor);
- (ii) the decline of DM central bank sales and rise of EM central bank purchases;
- (iii) the inability of gold mining companies to increase gold supplies materially; and
- (iv) long-term growth in physical investment demand.
Supply
- Constrained new gold supply is placing greater emphasis on the increased delivery of above-ground stocks to meet demand. However, in the absence of central bank sales, and limitations on the size of the available scrap pool, the continuation of physical demand growth from ETFs and coin sales is putting upside tension on the market, ensuring the bull market is sustained into 2012-13.
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Hell yes......it's the only thing that's not gonna burn.
http://www.dailywealth.com/images/charts/2009/oct/20091017-chart_b.gif
nuff said...
+1
Hmm....PPT must be on vacation today. Or they will act 5 minutes before the close.
i'm SO itching to buy more today.
only an idiot would sell physical at this point in our history.
Correct. I always laugh when I see any "scholarly analysis" of the price of gold or silver. All BS. It so manipulated that any suggestion that you can forecast the price based upon market metrics is crazy. The price of gold and silver will be whatever TPTB want it to be - until they lose control. Forget all the rationales for why the prices should be higher or lower. None of that matters. I hate to be a broken record on this, but there are new readers to ZH that may not appreciate this and may actually invest in PM based upon these types of articles.
Not to say that you shouldn't be holding physical PMs, but not for short term gains - only for protection against currency value collapse (i.e., hyperinflation). In fact YOU SHOULD own some PMs. But plan on holding them for a long time.
Fucking rigged casino! Hard to believe that it hasn't yet collapsed.
Hyperinflation is that necessary to justify an investment in PMs, 600% seems way outside what would be necessary to bring the system back into balance,I am not a schorlar but hyperinflation and complete collaspe appear over done?
All I can say is do your own due diligence. Read as much as you can.
Bass, Burry, Faber, Fekete, and FOFOA are good places to start.
Hyperinflation is that necessary to justify an investment in PMs, 600% seems way outside what would be necessary to bring the system back into balance,I am not a schorlar but hyperinflation and complete collaspe appear over done?
Bloody best comment since long, long time.
If the powers that be had complete control of the price, wouldn't gold still be $35?
Yes, the deck is stacked, the game is rigged BUT.. that does not mean you should totally dismiss the fundamentals. Something has been pushing the price up for 10 years in spite of a rigged game. Instead of shooting straight up, it's three steps forward two steps back.. but the momentum is forward and upwards.
Also if you were holding PMs for short term gains, this is the PERFECT market because the manipulation is so transparent, The whole process repeats itself over and over again. It's comical. I don't trade for short term gains because I'm not a gambler but if you have the balls to do that you couldn't ask for a better environment.
Need falling equities markets to force demand for more QE.
Like today? Or a string of todays?
It feels odd to say we "need" that scenario, but it looks like total and massive default will be the only cure for the Bernankish Upward Debt Spiral of Death & Rehypothecationary Snake Oil (BUDSDRSO).
i don't know. when morgan stanley (and other wall street banks) describe themselves as ultra-bullish on gold (as they did yesterday) i think realistically we need to be looking at a longer timeframe for gold to reach $2000. probably this year, but probably not in the next 3-6 months.
delay. extend and pretend. delay . . . but a new york entity, yet again allowed to go unnamed, delaying the opening of what was to be this huge honest exchange until dead means there is no PAGE in history to be turned
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/2_Whistleblower_Maguire__US_Entity_Interferes_in_Gold_Market.html
hold. hold. holding your breath, like gold . . . one long slow boat . . . whose passage demands the total fucking zen of absent emotion, and, swami swami, a feet-to-the-fire threshhold of pain unseen since brit empiricists were faced with such holy, holy, holy fuckin maniacs as not only strolled over hot coals but, spooky spooky, no blisters
cause, if they can coopt china . . .
This link might work better
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/3/2_An...
It's almost 3:30 and no rally rumors yet ... what the heck? Did someone over at the FED fall asleep on the job? ...
Naw..The whole world is waiting on the iPad 3...
Bet you think I'm kidding...
either that or they're out voting for obamney, santorum or gingrich. fucking retards.
They forgot to mention....WAR.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PUDLzHNYyc
Yup, the war with Iran is a big factor.... MS can't bullshit that one.
DON'T MENTION THE WAR!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xnNhzgcWTk
I'll see your war and raise you one..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUxkFCBPgx4
Stay long GUNS and AMMO!!!
With regard to the "analysis", and all the heavy-duty intellectualizing about whatever Bob or Bill think might happen; all I can say is; God only knows. Also; Whatever. The reason I'm leaving my bulk savings in Silver is what's the alternative? Italian Bonds? I don't think so.
oh shit
Annnnnnnd.......he's out!
I will stay long gold but I hate it when the banksters agree with me!
ditto
though I did have a bunch of stops on for all my mining stocks that went off like popcorn last week. i'm sure i'll jump the gun and get back in too early, but that's better then missing the next run i guess ...
What is this "LONG" stuff?
All I know is "HOLD."
a better question is, what is this "GOLD" stuff? never heard of it and naturally don't own any, whatever it is. too busy watching netflix on my ipad.
It doesn't matter what they say or don't say. Gold & silver will go up anyway. And the sheeple will continue to chase paper.
I'm just happy this is not an advice from Goldman Sachs - given their near-perfect track record in predicting the exact opposite of what happens, I would be seriously concerned, at least in the short-term.
their not buying hard metal only paper
Do you really? (Central Banks net buyers of Gold; not exactly a negative development for you).
I'll give MS one thing. They make very nice, colorful charts and graphs.
All you need is that M2 money supply chart for the reason to stay long gold. When the Fed raises interest rates to 18%, I will sell my gold. Have strange feeling I might have a long wait.
Only China can raise interest rates and even they won't. Get used to ZIRP4EVA. Or some horrific event of disaster outside of human control.
When the Fed raises interest rates
LOL
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
It's either stay ZIRPed.....or start writing a lot of interest checks on the 16 trillion debt.....any volunteers?
I guess it means "please keep the gold price up until they dispose their long position and fill their short positions"..
The tactics is getting old.
WHAT IS GOING ON?!?
BTFD!
I agree. With the ECB and Fed expanding their balance sheets (until they explode), gold is a good play.
Economic slow down + ECB/FED Balance Sheets at almost $7 trillion!!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/12123/
if you've been dollar cost averaging, fine. but if you're looking to add more to your stash, i'm not too sure if it's a good time to buy right now. especially silver because 1) they can raise margins consecutively and hammer it down like they did last year and 2) we haven't really seen big name players liquidating their position in gold to raise capital yet and 3) benny shalom is always lurking out there to scare the living daylights out of weaker hands. as crazy as it may sound, i can see gold falling to the $1,500 range again and silver to mid to high 20s sometime this year. but then again, i have no idea what the fuck i'm talking about. i should just STFU and turn my raggedy paper into more shiny metals today. decisions, decisions...
It's as though berstanky told them all no QE for you unless energy prices come down which means gold and the rest need to tank first and thus the bankster recommendation to Go balls deep the pm's. Didn't Goldman also put out a long gold call recently ? Better mind your stops bitchez
Ahh! Me so goldy!
Me love you long time!
If even morgan stanley says this, it means what i already suspected to happen.....
....expect that they in the midterm will do to gold, what they did to silver: A controlled "price range" that allows almost linear tops and bottoms, thus letting daytraders play, while the overall pricerange is controlled.... and way more flat than fiat inflation.
Silver just finished forming a perfect inverse head and shoulders on the daily.
I'm seeing 1380 gold just to get back in line with where silver is now based on the last few years. Silver may sell off a lot less then gold is about to I'm thinking.
speaking of disparities, another one that's about to close up and hopefully take down some bulltards with it....
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2012/03/kol-vs-spx.html
@ scatterbrains.
You have amazing talent at picking appropriate user names,(eg)yours.
Yeah, I think the little bell just rang on the elevator; Ding! "This car going up".
We all know gold is going to get hammered in a deflationary event, such as a stock market crash. It could also underperform if things tame down and stocks do well. I'm not sure I'd automatically sell if the Bernake raises interest rates. Raising interest rates is likely a sign that the Fed fears severe inflation, if not hyperinflation. This process could drag out another five years. I think 2013-2016 are going to be brutal years. If they can print they will. Gold has another 5 to 10 years, I think. This is a secular market so expect a 15-25 year bull run, which means 5-15 remaining.
Except that M0 and MZM have increased as much in the last 4 months as total M0 in 1980. We've created a whole 1980 economy's worth of money in 4 months, in other words. That has to be deflationary.
If M0, 1, 2, or 3 mattered gold would be 4k+. It trades up on that news and then crashes down, so it's as if the money supply never expanded. I mean, money supply has expanded a lot since gold's November highs, yet gold is lower. So, unless it decouples from the paper market, money supply only matters in fueling traders and giving a temporary bump. It doesn't help find price discovery. True value comes if the comex blows up and we only have (a) physical market or (b) the world blows up and gold is needed for barter.
Perhaps all that newly created money was used for naked shorting of GLD and SLV.
devo's stating the facts while you're merely speculating.
Makes sense in a crazy world, create 1USD of inflationary money, and offset it with another dollar that can be used to "tweak the inflation thermometer" .
If the TPTB are continuously naked shorting a 10 year bull market they sure WOULD need unlimited funding in (increasing amounts) from the fed.
Look for colossal amounts of money flowing into derivative market makers on the short side to offset Long positions thus netting out to a slightly short bias for hedging purposes. Also paying for profits going out for the longs.
In other words the funds being created to short gold could well be ending up as profits for the gold longs.
Call it stimulating the global economy.
Just call this a gut feeling, no concrete evidence whatsoever, but if I had unlimited funding And wanted to keep control of gold prices that is how I would do it.....
They'd be better off letting gold go to 10k per ounce. Nobody could afford it, and Joe Sixpack wouldn't even notice, and if he did, he wouldn't make the connection between that and a weak dollar.
I think that's what's happening just slowly...
You're looking too much at short term movements IMO. Bernanke is not going to raise interest rates. Everything points to that; they're in a corner, they're in the middle of debasing the dollar, and that doesn't fit. They just say they're not going to continue, but that would be illogical. GLD and SLV are derivatives markets, and are subject to manipulations that take place while it's coupled to the USD. (watch the "magic" invisible line of 1750 USD/Oz.) Part of those manipulations are made to keep investors with an eye on short term movements confused. They can't push SLV too much downward, because there'll be an even faster drain on the market. So I think it's not entirely correct to say M3 doesn't matter. I think we'll see changes, if the american elite are foolish enough to move in on Syria or Iran, foolish despite clear technological superiority..
Some decoupling could take place if China regards Iran and Pakistan as important conduits for trade routes, and while they're all dumping paper now and importing gold and silver, who's to say that they'll not be provoced? IMO look at who is exactly selling gold right now, and why. Murky, and I think it'll be not so clear cut as fine/end of the world differences. Finally, gold is money when a currency is nearing the end of it's life, and will play a role, outside the COMEX, in case of any major disruption of the Global Economy. That could be war, a collision with a meteorite of 60mtr. in februari, another nuke accident (perhaps in Diablo Canyon), a collapse in Japan's economy or financial system, bad vibes in Cupertino, or something as simple as TBTF trying to keep Ron Paul out of power after he's won the popular vote. Don't forget Europe. They'll not be able to keep that contained, without turning on a printing press. With the euro then just as debased, the race for the bottom will finally resume in earnest. Though OTOH germans don't blink first, mostly. And neither do russians BTW. Actually, I'd be VERY surprised if gold didn't at least in part of the world would resume it's place as means of exchange and value storage next year. Too many things that can and will go wrong.
It is money, after all.
cheers!
It doesn't matter what the FED thinks about inflation, the debt/deficit guarantees that they can NEVER raise interest rates again, until the whole system crashes and resets. That's the only thing that matters, and no matter what they say, its the fact that ties their hands completely and permanently. The rest is just obfuscation to make it look like they still have choices.
You should have rode 2008 Bitchez! Now that was a fucking ride !!!
When MS starts telling me to buy gold, I start to worry. On the other hand, maybe they issued the suggestion in the hope that everyone would fade it.
Best just to completely ignore MS, Goldman, JPM, etc. Where were they when gold was $300 or $500/oz?
Simple math: for every 1 trillion $ printed by the FED, gold should go up another 1000$/oz... and we are already late for the next 1000's $/oz!
I'm not disagreeing with you but can you show me the calculation? How do you come up with the $1000/oz increase in gold for every $1 trillion the Fed print? Did you just make up numbers? I'm curious.
Thanks,
central banksters have no gold to back up the promises behind the federal reserve note bill, and not that much cash either, thanks to the fractional reserve system. MONOPOLI'S BANK IS BROKE...It is a digital illusion that we all agree upon, but Fiat paper money eventually will return to what is really worth: ZERO. Always implode. If we restructure the banks in part with gold backed currency, that's what the price of gold should be to balace their sheets out. Mark Faber (DA, DAS MARK) said in an interview that actually gold should be much, much more per oz in order to do that... buy yourself some gold and silver and see what happens in 2-5 years
Morgan Stanley says 'Stay Long Gold'
oh come on now tyler, you are using ms as gospel now? no caveat emptor on their call? the same people we villianize are used to justify zh's position?
if they say long gold, be sure gold goes down this year.
fact: without any qe3, which wont happen this year, gold stays depressed...
Unless there is war in the Middle east
no matter how much they want it, war in the ME is not a foregone conclusion because china and russia will NOT be on our side if the United States of AmerIsrael attacks iran. in fact, it's more likely that they'd come to iran's aid. don't be fooled by our politicians and their toughspeak. they're only talking tough because they have to appease the AIPAC crowd and raise money from them.
It's always important to know what the enemy are saying, even when, as is normal, it contains a high percentage of Bullshit.
There's more than enough digi-fiat that hasn't even started to have an impact. That's the fact. But thanks for allowing me to post this twice today:
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan, 1966 Gold and Economic Freedom
No - i think this information is presented for us to debate and discuss.
Keep your friends close, and your enemy closer.
We need to know what kind of information is going out to the masses so we can decipher the real message.
fact: without any qe3, which wont happen this year, gold stays depressed
************
BS-
Was there QE happening from $35 until it actually did happen?
So-tell us what took gold higher to that point?
+1
How many times do people need this explained to them?
Wake the fuck up already.
QE 3. again.
twist is a form of QE which operates by ZIRP to fund the debt via 'savings'
b/c of this FACT, debt is going fuking parabolic as i write
b/c of the amount of "liquidity" in the system, the FED printing to fund the debt is no longer necessary, theoretically, for inflation to keep "plodding along" quite nicely, in many aspects of asset pricing and "valuation"
and yes, j_j, there was a ton of QE! QE (printing "money") for the vietNam war + LBJ's "greatSociety" spending programs was precisely why nixon took us off the gold standard and why the inflation rate got to where paulVolker raised the prime lending rate to 18%
of course there was QE starting in the 60's!
if you don't know the history... stop writing about it
and yes, j_j, there was a ton of QE! QE (printing "money") for the vietNam war + LBJ's "greatSociety" spending programs was precisely why nixon took us off the gold standard and why the inflation rate got to where paulVolker raised the prime lending rate to 18%
of course there was QE starting in the 60's!
if you don't know the history... stop writing about it
**********
The only one who doesn't know how to track history is you and stop writing in block letters--it makes you look like a fucken idiot-
Here's your fantasy money printing-QE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBSL
Some of you people have no fucken clue about how to track money supply or even what money supply consists of-
So just for a little education-here's what happened with "money supply" instead of your QE fantasy-starting in 1960-
http://bit.ly/xWjc4x
http://bit.ly/yacvGw
**************
Now prove this wrong or STFU--
i already did, you shitheaded raving lunatic
the fact that you don't know how to read graphs of percantage increases
does not man slewie is wrong, you perennially IGNORANT FUKING ASSWIPE
{http://bit.ly/yacvGw} is not a graph o f the money supply but a graph of % increases in the adjusted monetary base
your first link is also a graph of "adjusted monetary base"
check this out: Adjusted Monetary Base Series - St. Louis Fed
j_j, you don't understand that these are not pure "money supply" charts!
check this out: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Components_of_US_Money_supply.svg
and look what started happening in the 60's!
as i've been forced to point out to you before, j_j, you think you "know what you are saying" by such "economic 'proof-texting' "! but you don't. you make an error, and them build an entire "economic truth" around the fact that you misunderstood something. i earned ma MBA in the 1960's, j_j. i was young man at the time. i lived thru those years, and i was paying some decent attention between the acid trips, too!
slow down and dismount that hobby horse, now, son!
as i've been forced to point out to you before, j_j, you think you "know what you are saying" by such "economic 'proof-texting' "
j_j, you don't understand that these are not pure "money supply" charts!
*******
Yes you did point out to me before and said i was not at the level required to post on this board-
The reason i showed the % y/y was to show you the benign amount of currency expansion during those years you said printing/QE/Twist was happening-yes they were printing above the gold backing/USD-but that was not for the "twist" operation which as i showed above was a wash with the selling of short term treasuries and the purchasing of long dated-
Here is your long view of "money/currency supply"
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SBASENS
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CURRCIR
I showed you the supply of credit as well-which is also "money supply" and it is there-you will see the true "Inflation"
And if I'm wrong-then show me the money supply figures-
you asked a very simple question in your first post, above, j_j:
Was there QE happening from $35 until it actually did happen?
the simple answer is: Y-E-S
the FED montized debt by the truckload in the '60s
again, if this isn't correct, i apologize in advance
if it correct, you need to skow down and realize you are getting ahead of yourself trying to lead zH in "economics" ok?
see, the banksters make it seem like what the constitution sez about gold and silver shall be money doesn't "work" either
and all the "economists" can get paid by rockefeller and his banksters for over a century proving that is right, too
however, that doesn't make it true
[gold and silver = money]is necessary to have sound money and personal liberty. [debt = money] is necessary for debt slavery
and the reason we are losing the war for our own liberty is that we don't understand where the first battle against the fiat banksters and their "experts" can, should, and will be won, or our children will become impoverished debt slaves
this isn't complex or difficult or crazy, so please consider it carefully b4 you spend another several weeks jousting at fuking windmills, ok?
this the second time i have spend my time and energy trying to "get through to you" about your pattern of expanding a small error into a fuking book! the first time, i was able to reach you, b/c you are a sincere person and dialogical
now, i see the same pattern, and i hope you can still hear me, ok?
you are simple wrong about QE (funding the debt) during the 60's, so it is easily correctable, or. believe me, i wouldn't even try, at this point, with you
Was there QE happening from $35 until it actually did happen?
the simple answer is: Y-E-S
****************
The move to purchase longer-dated U.S. government debt, on top of regular purchases of short-term Treasury bills, marked the first time it has done so since Operation Twist, which ran from 1961 until 1965. But that is where the similarities end.
In the 1960s, in an effort to flatten the yield curve to simultaneously tackle a recession and a lingering trade deficit, the Fed bought long-term bonds and sold short-term bills.
As a result, the operation was sterilized in terms of its impact on the money supply and was not an expansion of monetary policy. This time, the intervention will not be sterilized and should help ease monetary conditions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/03/19/us-usa-fed-twist-idUSTRE52I3AG...
j_j!
the whole story does not equal one of its parts
they printed green stamps in the 60s, too
this is why the price of gold shot upward after the "peg" was removed by nixon: the money had already been printed before ho took us off the standard
just stop, ok?
the people who are selling you revisionist monetary "history and interpretation" have an agenda, j_j; when you buy into their lies and bullshit, you advance their agenda; and i would suggest you wake up and just stop blogging here for a while again, until you understand what is going on in the near-perfect vacuum between your weaselly ears...
***********
The only one who doesn't understand what's going on is you and I'm not sure why you've appointed yourself as board moderator-
You have not proved anything to me-in fact you cannot dispute with facts what i just showed you-only theory and that doesn't fly with me-
It's really too bad that we were posting at the same times and have ended up with a hodgepodge that is hard to follow-or it might sink into you what the facts are-
I don't have any agenda-i try to stick with facts and the data available-there are much smarter and more knowledgeable people than me-but i don't think you're one of them-
fact: the FED printed money in the 60s
if that isn't true, im a complete fuking moron, asswipe
if it IS true, you are a fuking raving lunatic
if you actually want to write this sentence: "i, j_j, know for a fact that the FED did not print money to give to the Treasury for its paper bwtween 1960 and 1970"
go ahaead, you ignorant pup of a bankster shill: make my fuking daaay!!!
either they did or they didn't
p.s. they 100%-certain did
just b/c you don't "know that" (yet) doesn't mean i don't know what i'm saying, here, dudette!
now GET THE FUK outa her and do not come back to zH!
you have my fork sticking in your overcooked commie fiat-loving brain, btw!
now GET THE FUK outa her and do not come back to zH!
**********
Kiss my fucken ass-
wow! how bold! was it a struggle not to use caps?
listen, j_j, i learned something from you here with all your moronic drivel!
slewienomics indicates that you have helped me learn here that: "sterilization" is always and everywhere a temporary monetary phenomenon
it is the economic equivalent of the physical science relativity principle which i shall incorporate here for the thankless fuking task of enlightening those who dwell in fiat darkness, to wit:
imagine a big turd of printed fiat shit-money speeding toward the rotary oscillator at a relatively constant velocity: Vturd
now the "sterilizer" grabs the fan and moves it opposiotionally away from the approaching fiat turd and a velocity which, due to utter hypocrisy and lies + a fat bankster ass, can appraoch, but never equal the appraching monetary mud-pie of fiat stink
then, zeno, the sterilizer holding the fan and "moving" it at Vz < Vturd, realizes that in this dimesion, you cannot outrun yourself, as peterSellers knew so well, and yes, BiCheZ, the shit eventually hits the fan, because that thought, being real, actually stops zeno b/c he really knew it, all along!!
economics is truly a human discipline, eh?
so thanks for helping me out with the world monetary crisis, j_j!
i'll stop, then
apparently you weren't around then, yourself, so you only know what you read, now, and what you have been "taught"
if you don't want to accept that they printed money, fine
even if they 'sterilized' it, it did cause nixon a gold problem b/c all that "sterilized printed money" was redeemable in gold after it woked its way into balance-0-payments deficits
you are reading propganda and can't understand the most plain and simple fact that the FED actually purchasing BOTH long term and short-term bonds in the 60's is in no way equal to the FED selling short and buying long in 2011-12 ff. i say again: NO WAY, JOSE!
stop pretending you know wtf you are talking about and listen to the simple-ist possible arguments i can muster for you!
beforehand?
i'm serious, toy-boy: either change your tune and attitude and amp up your ability to pay closer attention w/out "thinking" in terms that disable yer ability to learn, or just git lost
Also Slewie-
Operation "twist" from the 60's had no effect on money supply as you elude to-or gold-which was what i originally commented on-
They/Volcker did operation twist to try and flatten the yield curve-the Fed bought long-term bonds and sold short-term bills--the twist operation was sterilized in terms of its impact on the money supply and was not an expansion of monetary policy-unlike today's QE-or Twist-
The reason gold went up after Nixon cut it loose/defaulted on it's foreign gold payment obligations-is the same reason all commodities went higher-which boiled down to USD dumping in retaliation for the gold default-
The high interest rates reversed the dollar dumping and money flowed back out of commodities and back into US paper and "prices" fell-
Inflation is not about prices-it is simply a monetary event-currency and credit-nothing else-
you take it easy, my man
you are certainly no more looney than any other "armchair economist"
the FED "funded the debt" when needed. during the 1960s
they printed money and gave it to the Treasury for their paper
if that isn't true, i will apologize to you, for being mistaken; you have my word as a zeroHead
if it is true (which it is, btw) no amount of sophistry and palavering on your part is gonna change that
thos "% increases" and this http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Components_of_US_Money_supply.svg may help you see that M2 freakng doubled, at least during that decade
the reason there was so much more money at the end of the decade? William McChesney Martin as chairsatan, printed the do-re-mi to fund the deficits
it isn't complex at all
it is a very simple fact
I think you're mistaken by using M2-to track money supply-
M2 does include currency and credit but it also includes a host of other components such as MZM which cannot be counted as money supply-such as-
Savings-time deposits-money funds ie: mutual funds-(this money already exists and cannot be counted as money growth-
Here are the M2 components-
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/29
j_j!
mcChesney-Martin printed money (QE) to fund the deficit in the 1960s
american were forbidden to own gold at the time, and people did not understand the consequences till well into the 70's
nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971, simply b/c we didn't have enuf of the metal to back the green stamps we had printed
we still couldn't own gold (except as jewelry) till the mid-80s (i think--that when they minted the gold eagles, first, at least)
Historical Gold Prices - London Gold Fix 1970 - 1972 here we see what "happened" as the result of the 60s printing and what nixon had to do, to keep the Au in ftKnox instead of "paris"
we could also say: the dollar was devalued in the 70's due to the Qe/printing/funding the debt in the 60s
even the holocaust is "suspect" now; but my mom's step-brother, my "uncle" was the first allied officer to enter one of the major death camps under patton's command. so he was probably just a zionist shill who made up a buncha stuff about what had happened there?
the people who are selling you revisionist monetary "history and interpretation" have an agenda, j_j; when you buy into their lies and bullshit, you advance their agenda; and i would suggest you wake up and just stop blogging here for a while again, until you understand what is going on in the near-perfect vacuum between your weaselly ears...
Gold is definitely a buy know that it corrected to below the 200 dma. Just buy at will.
Silver is at a good price but I would still stay away from it until the Greece shit gets resolved (by a default or whatever is gonna happen).
It is also good to have USD cash (not in the bank account) to whether whatever is gonna happen after the 20 of March.
This is it bitches.
Weird, I think silver is the better buy right now.
Because you are thinking about upside potential and forgetting the downside risk.
No, I was thinking about the historical ratio and it just seems more likely silver is undervalued. Also, I like it's duel monetary/industrial use. If somehow we get out of this mess, silver has the industrial (demand) hedge built in. Given the shills like to pretend we're getting out of the mess, I think silver has more upside. I like both, tbh. Gold is a little more stable, agreed, so I like that.
We are in risk off mode until 20 of March and we could be in full deflation mode after that. All I’m saying to wait and see for just 2 or 3 weeks !
Silver is probably very undervalued but in a crises, it gets dumped because of its industrial use. Gold will outperform it.
Yeah. Good points.
Silver has a strong industrial side to it and if there is a flight from risk-i think silver will get caught up in the selling craze-but once the industrial component gets flushed-silver will show the world how fast she can move and it wont be long until the g/s ratio narrows-
Silver not only has industrial uses, but medical and nano tech. uses as well. It is being used in all sorts of applications, some which could hold up in a depression.
What will happen in March 20?
Greece has to pay back some bonds or default.
What was it? 15 kilos per cruise missile?
Then, silver is no where near it's market price. But valuations in nominal prices don't make sense anyway, if it's a deep long term investment. Just when you buy it. ;-)
Also with a ratio of OVER 50:1, something's strange there.
I think a mix of both is nice. Governments will try to restrict both for different reasons when they tighten the noose on taxpayers in Europe.
Since last year Silver is subject to 19% VAT (value added tax) here (it was 6%).
Gold is money so there's no VAT.
that's right, we are going back to 16:1 maybe 10:1( at the end of this bull market) in terms of purchasing power silver has to gain 2-3 times compared to gold
that's right, we are going back to 16:1 maybe 10:1( at the end of this bull market) in terms of purchasing power silver has to gain 2-3 times compared to gold
Agreed
very good to have lots of physical cash, at least 6 months of full living expenses, which shouldnt be that much assuming youve been stocking up on the basics (food, water, first aid, etc) ---best bet at this point.
The amount claimed to be in possession of ETF's makes it the 6th largest nation by tonnage. Ha. ha ha. hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
Who do you disbelieve most - the central banks of the top gold-owning nations? Or the banksters who run the ETFs?
don't forget arms and ammunition as there is a run on both running up to the election
gold is priced in world dollars now....the USA is an ink spot right now.....no one with income cares what we say anymore...they know what we do...and we print.....print and print they will....this is getting much to funny......bonds here..bonds there...safety bonds everywhere...except they are not.....Thursday will show the smartist of the smartist that bonds are not safe...I wonder what Bob Pissonme will say then.....when those safe secure bonds just burned up......my oh my.....And Apple stock is down...what is a hypster to invest in....lol
the world is a crazy bubble...
yes, for some more that others, it seems at times, too
so, i hope you are having a good day/evening, ana
in portugal
QE3 ROFLMMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ZH QE3 hopium is just as strong as retail hopium for the DJIA to stay strong.
BTW I'm long physical metals but for monetary collapse purposes, not incremental nominal fiat priced gains.
Can we give up the QE3 shit yet?
As I've said I don't even know how many times in the past: he never stopped. Just because he's not announcing it now doesn't mean it's not happening.
Now that I agree with. How LSAP translated to lower prices (during QE 1&2) interests me. I think they actually buy stocks during QE and treas. during non QE. Either way they are always printing and always buying something.
QE3 going to be announced tomorrow :)
Does anyone have the cam at Washington Dulles Airport to watch all the bankers private jets flying in to beg for money from congress again...
i have
Its OK to use a private jet now right...or do they have to drive in with a GM VOLT
When I first got into gold the same thing happened. There was a big peak, then there were many dissappointing months and then it refloated and reached another peak. And it all started again.
its like in life... we cry sometime... months... than we have a peak of hapiness :)
Some of the smaller miners I've been following have been getting hammered the last few days by ~20% like Premier Gold and US Silver. There will be some good buys to be had.
gpl, hl
a lot of charts in the MS report.
gold is so obviously a bubble waiting to pop, and perhaps MS are trying to push some of it onto the readers of their 'analysis'
anyway, why are we talking about Gold when the big top is Greece
hearing that PSI might be 85%+ www.marketblip.com
MS must be selling.
who is giving me vote down? :(
not me
but some may not think you were honest abt who you were the other day, i think; for me, it was fun & funny, too
or that you were doing "too much social networking here"
but, since no one is "fighting" with you, you can't defend yourself! L0L
so, don't try
just relax, keep being who you are, and enjoy the pi-ratical notoriety?
see ya!
"Stay Long Gold"Duh!! Ya Think!
So, we trust a bank when they tell us to do something that we want to do, but scorn them when they tell us to do somethng that is contrary to our investing thesis?
Does it not occur to anyone that when large investment banks all begin to turn bullish on gold that they're looking for buyers to dump their gold onto? Just as when they were telling clients that gold was a bubble waiting to burst, while simutaneously loading up at the same time. Don't see how a bunch of ZH readers, who i'm sure all regard themselves as so much smarter than the mass of "sheeple", fail to make this connection, and take a report like this, or many others put out by large investment banks recently as anything but BearishAsFuck
Your logic implies that they know when to sell. The bank bailouts imply they don't
Agree with other reply ...
This is just the beginning of retail interest in gold. The exponential rise will begin in earnest when the public starts buying gold in large amounts. Who cares who's stupid enought to sell thier physical into that. As that blow off top forms, every fiat currency inthe world will be so debased, the world will have no choice but to head for a gold standard of some type (electronic probably). That's when selling will make sense, because the price of gold stops going up when it becomes institutionalized.
More like MS targeting a double?
http://bit.ly/yH0ak8
Knew they would close the gap in Silver,nice job in large fashion !
Plenty of fiat waiting to pounce. Told you bankers and dumpers I would always be here for you and Im right here.
Watching & Waiting Im in a buying mood on both.
Appreciate you giving me more time.
XOXO Luv Ya
You guy`s give Phys Ed a whole new meaning lol................
Somebody smart, help me out here.
I hope everyone doesn't dump their physical when the end of the paper game comes. At some point, people will get the hell out of those ETFs and when they do, of course the prices will crash into the gutter. Some folks will take that as a disaster for physical, too. Panic selling into the drop, a lot of metal comes available to temporarily support the idea that the paper crash was due to the fundamentals, and thus, real. This is what keeps me on edge about the PM market. What a fouled-up mess they have made of things.
When the price is crashing through the 20's, start buying. You'll come out the other end a very rich stacker. Those who dump the physical will be diving from skyscrapers.
Or am I fu--ed in the head?
Feel free to fire away.
Conax
I may not fit into the smart category It seems though to me, it is best to be somewhat diversified,Do not invest cash you may need soon,If you bought at any crash like, 2008 and sold some or hung on you made a lot of money.Buy when people are shitting in the streets from fear.Listen to your intuition not the battle noise.
Good advice, cult. Thanks! The herd is almost never right.
I just hope people have the vision to realize the crash is all about paper and financial controls, not the fundamentals. Still, counting on Americans to smarten up may not be wise. It's a global market, maybe the furriners will do a stick save on the PMs.
Arrgh. Too many variables. Still, silver and gold are money, and money is better than a promise from some shylock.
Its getting to the point where even now for the middle class - its expensive to buy gold.
No matter what you say to the masses - they just cant plain afford it.
And, i dont think 'they' want too many of us commoner's to have gold. They want it for themselves
He who owns gold - rules the world.
In 1976, Nobel laureate economist Friedrich Hayek wrote that with the exception only of the 200-year period of the gold standard (1714 to 1914 in Britain), practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money in order to defraud and plunder the people.
According to Hayek's research, history proved two things: 1) that all representative governments eventually abuse their money-issuing privileges, which results in inflation; and 2) that people with access to various types of money always look for the most stable kind -- usually gold or silver.
Why should it be different this time around? Lv
Nothing New Under the Sun.
Confirmation bias at its finest.
When did anyone start giving a rat's ass about what MS says? Going long gold gives 100% credibility! LOL.
It's hard not to consider the "what if" scenarios that could play out over the next few years. As the printing presses run amok, and money supply explodes, gold and silver naturally have appeal. The question is, what happens when inflation forces extreme measures? A ridiculously high VAT-like tax on pm's? New legislation to compel physical pm holders to deposit gold at the local bank in exchange for some new currency, or credit? The Fed won't raise interest rates anytime soon, as we all know. Money/credit creation must continue, until some sort of a "reset" is forced. I have physical pm's, but I'm not naive enough to think that the rules can't change in a heartbeat.
Arrgh. Too many variables. Still, silver and gold are money, and money is better than a promise from some shylock.
Agreed , I realize that the powers that should not be, can crash any market, any time and have always said that.That in itself keeps me a bit more at a diversified manner 'however' no longer am i in any paper products except the Numero Uno Counterfeit paper of the federal reserve.I also hope the people have some vision to stay firm and steadfast, perhaps read some history of centuries past and moneys history and why we were at one time on a gold standard.At that time we all had to live in reality.. now,...........
Pulp Fiction
lol... it can be a tough market when the rules change while the game is in play
All the best to you
Okay.
Can't remember any more
What happened in 2008
To gold and the miners
were thery in front of the fall
or behind
something feels like deja vu
Can't remember any more
is this 2008 or 2010 or 2012
and are the brits really going to do the Games? om
Buy physical Gold. If it goes down, buy more. If it goes up a little, buy more. No matter what the price, buy, buy, buy.
Unless you find a good deal on a nice farm.
Other than that, buy the shiny stuff and keep stacking.
@Engineertheeconomy
Would a 1000 acres of the cleanest watershed covered in mature natural forest on the planet be ok as a substitue for 'a nice farm'?
I won it playing poker om
Still remember the time when I bought a kilo of silver
for about 150 euro.Nowdays the VAT tax only on a kilo of
silver is 150 euro in my country.Next step,in a few years,
will be the dealer premium the same as my original
investment and the daily swings bigger than 150 euro.
this is why i'm such a raving shithead about the US Consitution
our gold and silver coinage is CONSTUTIONAL MONEY even today [since 1789] and the fuking banksters and pols hit us up w/ a 10% sales tax and extra-high income/gains federal tax too!
because the coinage is "collectible" now!
so as an american, i just say: study what utah is actually doing and learn more b/c~
~THIS IS FUKING BUKLLSHIT~!!!
I can probably find an article on the waybackmachine that says to stay long real estate in 2006 from these fuckers too.