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Step Aside BBC "Trader": Head Of UniCredit Securities Predicts Imminent End Of The Eurozone And A Global Financial Apocalypse
Either the YesMen have infiltrated Italy's biggest, and most undercapitalied, bank, or the stress of constant, repeated lying and prevarication has finally gotten to the very people who know their livelihoods hang by a thread, and the second the great ponzi is unwound their jobs, careers, and entire way of life will be gone. Such as the head of UniCredit global securities Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, and former Chairman of the Hungarian stock exchange, who has written an unbelievable oped in the Hungarian portal Index.hu which, frankly, make Alessio "BBC Trader" Rastani's provocative speech seem like a bedtime story. Only this time one can't scapegoat Szalay-Berzeviczy "naivete" on inexperience or the desire to gain public prominence. If someone knows the truth, it is the guy at the top of UniCredit, which we expect to promptly trade limit down once we hit print. Among the stunning allegations (stunning in that an actual banker dares to tell the truth) are the following: "the euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default"... “The euro is beyond rescue”... “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”...."A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe."..."Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.” In other words: welcome to the Apocalypse...
But wait, there's more. From Bloomberg:
The impact of a Greek default may “rapidly” spread across the continent, possibly prompting a run on the “weaker” banks of “weaker” countries, he said.
“The panic escalating this way may sweep across Europe in a self-fulfilling fashion, leading to the breakup of the euro area,” Szalay-Berzeviczy added.
Szalay-Berzeviczy has just arrived in Hungary from a trip abroad and can’t be reached until later today, a UniCredit official, who asked not to be identified because she isn’t authorized to speak to the press, said when Bloomberg called Szalay-Berzeviczy’s Budapest office to seek further comment.
And now, for our European readers (first) and everyone else (next), it is really time to panic.
Full op-ed from Index.hu, google translated from Hungarian. Some of the nuances may be lost, but the message is bolded. If any one our Hungarian-speaking readers have a better translation, please forward it to us asap.
Europe's common currency is virtually dead. The euro's doomed situation. The only open question now is, that European governments and the European Central Bank's desperate rearguard action even number of days to keep the spirit in Greece. For the moment, when Athens is declared bankrupt, a "10 magnitude" earthquake will shake Europe, which will be the overture to a whole new era in the life of the old continent.
Indeed, Greece is not only bankruptcy will mean that the Greek government securities holders did not get back their money invested, but also to the interior of the state will not be able to meet its debts.
From the moment only Greek teachers, doctors, police, army, ministry and local government employees will not receive a salary, just as the seniors did not expect nyugdíjukra good time. The ATM is emptied in minutes. The local banks are stuck holding government securities, an immediate liquidity crisis, devaluation of the Greek banking system in total collapse. Thus the savings of depositors is totally wasted because the Greek government deposit insurance or guarantee was now living. Bankkártyájukról since then, not only at home will not be able to withdraw some money, but the world's only automatájából not. The benzinkutakból run out of fuel, as well as food from the grocery store. Greece is practically a full stop at least a decade of life and dramatic drop in poverty in the country as a whole.
The problem is that in this case, the disaster can not stop at the Greek border, but great speed and momentum tovagy?r?z?dik then the entire euro zone, Europe, and finally shake the world. Channel for the spread of infection, of course, such a scenario would also back the banking system. Indeed, the international banks in Greece suffered hundreds of billions of euros t?kevesztésükön too soon be forced to lock hitelkereteit other banks, which will have to do with a country where - according to investors' expectations - the Greek thunderbolt strike again.
And when the banks no longer trust each other, not to lend to each other, the international financial markets stop. This in turn means that all financial institutions left alone with clients.
Poor countries with weak banks start to panic withdrawals of retail funds. But since the retail and corporate deposits and loans are allocated in the form of inter-bank market, these banks can not borrow bridging purposes, may be an immediate liquidity crisis. This is, to all financial institutions can be put into bankruptcy, which is stable and there is no capital behind strong, creditworthy countries. European countries are now, of course, guarantee the safety of their deposits, but the collapse of the banking system would be in financial straits due to the governments of the countries whose banking systems should extend under his arm. Thus, the escalating self-fulfilling panic söpörhet way through Europe, the euro zone which then leads to disintegration.
Of course, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Jose Manuel Barroso repeated daily unos-untalan to disintegration of the euro zone there is no question of the euro remains in any case, as an alternative to this would be a huge cost to all Member States. But the currency union dissolution is probably one of the main features will be managed from Brussels, it is not a process but an uninvited guest arriving as a result of financial apocalypse. The euro area break-up, timing, strength of the human factors as well as money and capital market forces and trends will define the politicians was only with us panic watching the developments as three years ago was when Lehman Brothers collapsed.
The now four-year, and is constantly raging crisis in the greedy, selfish human nature too is certainly not the banks, not brokers, not the weather and no natural disasters, but above all, and especially at any price with economic growth, power libertine policy responsible for the global elite. Namely, those legislators, the majority of whom have never been able to see through the international financial developments, therefore, the corresponding pre-crisis legislation will only have been available, when in 2008 the world has collapsed.
However, the banks should be regulated, not criminalized or stigmatized.
The American politicians, at least it has always been understood that the money and capital markets are efficient economic policy allies of the investor for the company are responsible for. In contrast, their counterparts in Europe, unfortunately, still do not understand the nature of markets, most of them think that the financial system, the ancient enemy, because it does not work the way it is dictated by their own political interests.
Was a huge mistake and irresponsibility on the part of the political elite of the international crisis in 2009, the easing of its own negligence and error concealment of public passion in order to make a scapegoat of feltüzelésével from financial institutions. When everyone knows exactly that the taxpayers 'money to government banks are not rescued, but the corporate, retail and municipal depositors' money. This was not a political decision - like, say, airlines or car manufacturers for - but a serious system troubleshooting.
The two reasons people moved their money to the bank: I want to know it is safe and hope the interest on their savings. The bank has to create the security, interests, it must produce. It will only be able to do so, it assigns to the deposits in the form of credit to where money is needed for the operation, growth and job creation. It is sufficient interest to be collected by then to be able to pay interest to depositors.
Banks are so important to the economy, fuel carriers, which in times of crisis in the economies most vulnerable points, which therefore must be protected and safeguarded at all costs. Eventually, this belátva "after the rain the rain jacket," the way Europe was born in the EU capital adequacy directive, the United Kingdom, Vickers Commission's recommendation, the United States, the Dodd-Frank Act, while at the global level, the Basel Committee (Basel Committee on Banking Services) III. package. These are all one and all of the banking capital and liquidity position on increasing. The regulations, restrictions - which is no small effect on the Hungarian banking capital and liquidity position as well - but the price that banks in lending rates to curb forced a diminishing impact on economic growth and increase unemployment.
There is a country ...
However, there is still a country in Europe where the political elite in recent years not learning from the crisis of economic policy impasse will continue its adventures. A place where politicians continue to irresponsibly mantrázzák that banks are the source of every problem and an imaginary part of the economic Patriotic War must convince them, instead of strengthening their capital rohannának the upcoming Euro final before the onset of disaster. And is still seriously they think the country will benefit if long-term processes in the international market against marching.
This, unfortunately, no other country like Hungary, where governments, businesses and a significant proportion of the population indebted up to the neck, near the Swiss franc will spend his days. By now almost everyone's favorite topic of "what the devizahiteleseinkkel start" in the story, which is again due to the political elite of our society began to polarize. Despite the disagreement is not really suffering, and lack of solidarity between runs, but the solution and a further deterioration of the situation. Finally, the Government of a sudden, shocking everyone with lightning speed by dragging points in the debate. For many, the record speed in the parliament adopted legislation relevant music for the ears. I, however, the minority that the government of the country for the wrong, dangerous and immensely unjust solution.
Who is responsible for the credibility of the currency situation that has evolved?
To determine if this is not necessary to set up committees of inquiry. The situation that has evolved over the past decade, the whole Hungarian political elite is responsible for short-sighted and self-serving politizálásával the following four steps as a result of our country to benefit vulnerable position.
1) The spectacular public debt in 2000, started by the then Urban's government overspending as part of a drastic cut in home loan into a generous budget kamattámogatásába. This was the hope that in the 2002 elections will help the start-up in domestic demand growth path to make the country an international crisis in the middle. Eventually won the elections, Socialist Party of Free Democrats coalition that he is "hundred-day program," observed head (which was then in opposition Fidesz is automatically voted on) that some further policy steps complete with an amazing total indebtedness of the country. Both political side hoped that the expansion of domestic demand BOOST artificial, accelerated through the distributing political economy, that will then automatically produces a cover to hide the resulting deficits. However, this hypothesis was wrong, the more so because the supercharged domestic demand stimulated imports only, and this is only exploited by the country's trade balance. The resulting fiscal imbalance is a false illusion of wealth, causing catalyzed by the growing demand for consumer credit.
2) The Hungarian population is not the currency of their own band, not to loans after the country's deteriorating economic condition of the forint faced having to pay the interest rate premium. In the nine years of failed economic policy (unsustainable pension, health and housing subsidy system, beyond the minimum 50 percent increase for public servants carried out under 50 percent wage increase, a 19 thousand forints single pension supplement, the 13th month pension, the introduction of the minimum wage, tax exemptions make the reckless áfaváltoztatások, the state and the private sector, real or imagined, a partnership of PPP investments proliferation, unrealistically expensive highway construction), an abnormally low taxpayer morale, coupled with a growing hole in the state household, and this is the country's indebtedness resulted. A short well-being of our economy and substance of political change in direction instead of the current Hungarian Government to finance its foreign investors, who do all this, of course, the increased risks due to a high interest rate premium they would do next.
3) The current Hungarian government's fault that 21 years after the regime change in the financial and economic fundamentals are still not subject to the compulsory part of secondary school education and the maturity of. The reason people can not just lending a little, but have no idea what's the difference between the interest rate and the APR, there is no sufficient information about themselves on the bank, a financial trader. For this reason, then vulnerable, defenseless, non-savers are active, spend more strength above. What megtakarítanak yet, I want to keep it under his pillow, and averse from the Stock Exchange do not understand the fundamental economic relationships are not. So, of course, are highly susceptible to demagogic politicians banking and capital market, anti-rhetoric, when the situation rather than solutions themselves instead of trying to find those responsible.
4) The adóforintjainkból reserved for government and the financial market supervisory bodies to be surprised at the deepest crisis in his sleep in 2008. They were not able to perform a task, and therefore unprepared for the crisis in Hungary, it was more severe effect. The current government, parliament, central bank supervision and the responsibility to monitor, if necessary, regulate the market trends and anomalies if large or dangerous trends are seen, it is time to take action early - applying for the relevant law must drive everyone back on track. (For example, if a bank responsible wanted to act and therefore does not give franc loan to the customer, the customer response passed from another bank, which serve them.) Therefore, the Socialist-Free Democrats government enormous mistake when unleashed in Hungary in foreign currency lending, instead of restrictive legislation would have created that all banks are equally strong against the standards of the franc would have corroborated related lending. This of course does not dealt with the then opposition in parliament.
The government in the role of Don Quixote
The Hungarian government, the fiscal position to deal with a simple but populist solution. The problem with all of its declared banks began systematically stamping: the crisis in the banking system, taxes were imposed, a moratorium on the enforcement of mortgages, a three-year rate lock maximizing debtors' monthly repayments. These measures, of course, painful lives of all financial institutions, but also understandable and tolerable in view of the crisis. The government's latest idea, a stream of foreign exchange price fixed mortgage repayments, however, is beyond all the existing boundary of sanity.
The banks seem to be borne by the strokes well, because they are the eyes of external sources of unrestricted funds (but not their own money to the banks, the depositors and shareholders should have). But the reality is that domestic banks in these lépéssekkel lose their profit and a significant part of their capital, which puts a dangerous situation in the Hungarian banking system just when the world, the banks' capital and liquidity, strengthening the position of working with governments. The current situation at home, in response to the banks to curb lending further forced the mostly foreign-owned banks are a part of our opt for the departure. Of course, this last step we can say that this is who cares: just because it will improve under the leadership of the Hungarian financial institutions, market-making opportunity.
But the situation is far more complex. Firstly, the total size of Hungarian banks are not enough large to be financed only from domestic sources themselves the entire Hungarian economy. Second, any taxpayer suicide in terms of budget, job-creating companies elüldözni, especially when it leads to the purchase of Hungarian government securities. And last but not least, a shrinking national economy and increasingly risky financial institution operating in a responsible one is not increasing market shares. If it is the country where the bank is also home country, this means increase in the risk of increasingly sidelined in international financial markets and is also much more expensive than the current one, or none at all will not be able to involve funds from abroad.
Therefore, higher interest rates and forint dramatically in need of corporate and household lending in Hungary can be expected that we all have bad news. Especially when considering the lawfulness that each percentage point of economic growth should grow in the order of four percent each year, the bank's loan portfolio. Failing this, the road remains a continuing recession and rising unemployment direction. Same point in the past three years has shown that the unlimited and unregulated credit expansion is what can lead to trouble. But that is a credit to the economy in which the living body of water: an essential and irreplaceable. It is not to mention that the lack of competition in supply and rising bank costs, and declining service quality leads.
Long live the social implications
A favorable exchange rate for foreign currency loans, repayment options and money market of the real economic problems are a very important set of issues it raises: the action is extremely unfair to socially as well.
1) Take yourself, who adósodott not it?
We turn to a bank loan, because we decided against that and not because of this gun to force bank. A man with a credit consumer, who is living beyond its capabilities with real, or better living conditions than that you can afford. But this is not a problem per se, but only in private. Especially if the forint borrowing rather than foreign currency. The foreign debt is nothing more than speculation in the currency weakening. The borrower to receive foreign currency, the forint strengthened or will increase, so the repayments are lower, or even weaken, the depreciation rate will never exceed the forint and Swiss franc relative kamatkülönbözetb?l from profits. The customer decides the bank to credit the HUF will be required over 10 per cent interest or more on selected franc loan 6 percent. One man's debt burden is higher, but there is no exchange rate risk, while the other smaller interest burden, coupled with exchange rate risk. So the possibility of the borrower, risk tolerance in relation to the choice. Responsibility for the judgments of others do not sew the neck, once it did not work for what we expected. However, the government decided that the losses for the banks to take over. This means that if a crisis of financial institutions to the edge of collapse because of their capital szétporladó are, the Hungarian government, the taxpayers will have to set their feet so as not to lose there money to depositors, since they guarantee. That is simplistic: while the forint was strong, the currency authentic nyer?ben were, and when the partially self-constructed position weakened forint due to losses incurred when the government that tries them be required to pay, who did not want a loan, but instead saved a and deposit bankjuknál form affixed. Those who are indebted in HUF, are now beyond their own pain authentic solidarity even in the foreign exchange burden themselves may assume, therefore, double-pay. This is extremely unfair to those who lives without borrowing to the extent possible is held responsible, thinking the more expensive or forint loans was recorded, compared to a profit for many years a relatively foreign credit insurance.
The exchange of authentic reference that no one told them to such an extent, the forint weakened and discredited simply unacceptable. In addition, point in a country with a population over many decades, they were socialized to be the best foreign currency savings, as the forint has already been countless times leértékelve. Not to mention that the man, after long and careful consideration in choosing real estate. It is difficult to imagine that a funding condition can not inquire about the system thoroughly.
2) Support those who took the rose hill francs their apartment?
The saving on foreign exchange authentic parliamentary decision that the existing foreign currency loan will only be able to repay, whose savings are adequate or sufficiently stable income and good relations among the living, that this new fund is now forint-based loans. The decisions of the government due to the weakening forint started to plunge even more difficult situation is really in need credible currency, even though at the expense of others throws lifeline to those who hitelükb?l luxury apartments and holiday homes at Lake Balaton meeting.
3) Trash the sanctity of property rights
The government has just sent a message to voters: the sense of responsibility to the community and handle finances, because if it goes wrong, you will help the paternalistic state. The parliament's decision on Monday, however, has virtually legislated that Hungary should rob banks.
The banks do not stuff themselves with money bags, where they can and can extract any number of free money. They are companies whose owners are its shareholders. Who had invested money in this industry because earnings are expected. The income is derived from those customers who have placed their savings to the bank as security in exchange and interest rate are expected. The bank will need to generate the operation, the cost of the depositors and the interest rate on dividends to shareholders. If this process the government all sorts of sober reflection, without prior consultation and say, you have the savings of depositors and the shareholders' investment risk. This would not only lead to bankcs?dhöz worse, but the extent undermines the confidence towards Hungary to deter those who have money want to invest Hungary economy.
A reliable and well-functioning market economy, democratic country built on two main criteria: the sanctity of private property, and the megkérd?jelezhetetlensége FAKTUM to repaying the debt is still all right. And these two factors can not only political power and does not want megpiszkálni. Because everyone knows that the country where the prime minister during breakfast work out the same day regardless of which operator will be something to take away, which was then a parliamentary lunch already constitution also to the President on the same day before dinner underneath write and publish the investors to avoid the sight of a banana republic.
What is medicine?
The people, companies, municipalities and the state foreign debt of the current level of real macroeconomic risks, which need to be addressed. The pékt?l doctors and bankers to bus drivers is the same for all of us an equal interest in the more tolerable rate of repayment. But it does not matter what method is achieved. The parliament adopted the Law on foreign credit repayments in the short term as to help affluent debtors, but it is extremely unfair and harmful to the greater part of the country. This is a money market and real activity leads to start had to sooner rather than later to 300 forint euro exchange rate over the direction of take. There are some steps that might sound good now, but in fact points to a fast-track court sent the country after the Greeks. While other ideas are not sound popular, but in the medium term, stable and reasonable solution to the problem of genuine currency.
The latter are the authentic economic policy decisions that the government reduce the size of the pension and health and public administration reform will help improve competitiveness. Measures to attract investors and investment, increase tax revenues are put into place to increase - making it finally fall in unemployment - may be less public debt and, last but not least, appreciation can start the forint to finally fall to start a foreign currency mortgage payments.
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Dont worry, we'll very soon be fondly looking back on these 'good ol days'.
I fail to see how the Euro, atleast losing it's southern front is bearish for the PM's...The Greeks are getting revenge ( Genetic memory of sorts)...Who will never be able to repay their debts with -10% GDP...The Germans will not bail-out the Greeks who retire with their public pensions at 55, while they (Germans) work until their 70...End of the road...The can is no longer kickable...End Game...
The premise of this article is that somehow someone with lots of financial background predicting the imminent end of the financial world is going to make a dent in the mass media. Which clearly is not the case. Look at the number of words in this article. What the BBC Trader did in 3 minutes was encapsulate what's really happening, what to do (USD is only a short term solution), warn people to wake up and prepare, and look where that message is at.
Wow, that is a brilliant analogy. And funny (though not really).
Exactly its why we dont see much of anything 'happening' right now, because no one wants to make the first move theyll be trampled to death whenever it is the sudden mass panic hits.
Does anyone have the link to the Bloomberg storry?
"The EURs have to go somewhere and it won't be CHF"
True! People will fight over old scratched damaged low-premium gold coins in 2-3 years...
I'll buy your "scratched damaged" gold for a low premium.
Bankers everywhere are becoming paranoid wavering from Keynesian utopia to Austro-Hungarian delusion . A sure sign the system is under extreme stress and all the proposed remedies are doomed to failure without systemmic change . Meanwhile Wall St bankers believe they will be the benefactors of turmoil because they own the printing press and offer the best place to preserve wealth without creating wealth. The end is near because the financial system is broken on a global scale.
Even peoples conclusion 'theyll print' is no answer, I personally think 'printing' is now not a positive at all but sets the dominoes falling immediately.
"Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy"?
That's not a name, it's a bad Scrabble hand.
You have a failure of imagination: Breezy, Catalyst, Sizzle, Vibrates,...
The only information that is released in general is info they want released. If a guy with this high a profile says something like this, TPTB want it said.
Just consider it. ;)
I thought about that, and wondered if this is just another cheesy step to prolong the suspense while TPTB position themselves better to profit from the collapse. Its like monkeys brachiating through a forest. They let go of one vine a bit at a time until the next vine is firmly in their grasp.
Attila seeks redemption for having run the Unicredit Italian Berlusconian ponzi for so long. So much whitwashing and so little rewarding, from his perspective!
He now wants payback for DSK's Oligarchic play on fellow Hungarian IMF maid, Piroska Nagy; seduced and abandoned, by IMF boss. Hungary's honour must be avenged.
WOrking for Unicredit must give you brass balls and an intense desire to piss all over the place down the noses of Oligarchs.
Tokay! Like Banzai!
Yea its a bit too little too late isnt it? All was well during the good years running the Ponzi scam, now that its only hours from totaly imploding, we get the death bed confessions?
Jesus forgives, the masses wont.
"The benzinkutakból run out of fuel," means: gas stations run out of fuel.
"Bankkártyájukról since then, not only at home will not be able to withdraw some money, but the world's only automatájából not"
means:
their debit cards will be useless in greece and in other countries, too.
I'm hungarian, try to help. It is a very strong text, worth reading. I dont have much time now, but later I can help accurately translate it, if needed. Prior to this, in recent weeks, Hungarian government made a decision to force all the banks in Hungary to accept all the CHF loans at a fixed payback rate, if clients have the money to pay it back in one sum. CHF/HUF is about at 230-240 HUF, and the fixed rate will be 180 HUF, and banks are forced to accept all the losses coming from this. Banks are mainly owned by foreign (italian, austrian, german) banks, so the hungarian gov't made a decision to hurt mainly foreign investors. This information is needed to understand why this article was published in Hungary.
25% is a reasonable haircut considering they'd see a big fat zero and own half of Budapest otherwise.
Thanks so much for the translations, they do help.
ok, it's a more accurate translation of the first part of the article than G translator. i wont translate the further parts because that is only interesting for hungarian readers, I think. it is important to note that I just did a quick translation about the euro-fearmongering part of text, however, I am not agreeing with it in full.
"
Europe's common currency is practically dead. It can't be saved. The only open question now is how long the European governments and the European Central Bank will keep Greece from falling hard. The moment, when Athens is declared officially bankrupt, a "10 magnitude" earthquake will shake Europe, which will be the beginning of a whole new era in the life of the old continent.
The default of Greece will not only mean that the bondholders will suffer haircuts / lose their investment, but it will also mean that the state won't be able to fulfill its obligations inside the country, too.
From that moment there will be no Greek teacher, doctor, policeman, soldier, ministry and local government employee, or any public sector employee getting paid, just as the pensioners/seniors can't expect their paychecks coming for a long, extended period. The ATMs will be emptied in minutes. As greek gov't bonds on the hands of local banks lose their value, an immediate liquidity crisis will occur, which will result a total collapse of the Greek banking system. The savings of depositors will also disappear because the Greek government deposit insurance or guarantee won't be existing then. The debit cards will be useless in the country, and those debit cards of the greek citizens will be useless everywhere outside Greece, too. The gas stations will run out of fuel, as well as food will disappear from the grocery store. In Greece, life as we know it will stop, and deep poverty will be the next phase for the whole country, for at least a decade.
The problem is that in this case, the disaster can not stop at the Greek border, but spreads toward fast to the entire euro zone, Europe, and finally shakes the world. The channel of the contagion, of course, will be the banking system. International banks - beyond their immediate losses suffered on their greek exposure - would soon be forced to lock-in other banks' credit lines, banks that have exposures to other endangered countries.
And when the banks no longer trust each other, not lend to each other, the international financial markets stop. This means that every single financial institution will be left alone with its own clients.
Poor countries with weak banks start the panic withdrawals of retail funds. But since the retail and corporate deposits were lent out, and the institutions can't get emergency loans from the inter-bank market, this may be an immediate liquidity crisis. This could be deadly for all those banks that do not have very stable capital basis, and are not backed by their strong, creditworthy governments. European countries now, of course, guarantee the safety of our deposits, but the collapse of the banking system would be a very difficult situation for these governments. Thus, the escalating self-fulfilling panic can spread way through Europe / the euro zone, which then leads to disintegration.
Of course, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Jose Manuel Barroso repeat on a daily basis that there will be no disintegration of the euro zone, there is no question that the euro remains in any case, as an alternative to this would be a huge cost to all Member States. But the currency union breaking-up won't be managed from Brussels, it is not a process, but an uninvited guest arriving as a result of financial apocalypse. The euro area break-up, the timing of it, the strength of it will be defined by the human factors as well as money and capital market forces and trends, while our politicians will only be able to watch it and panic with us as the developments occur, just as three years ago, when Lehman Brothers collapsed.
For the now four-year old, and constantly raging crisis we should blame - beyond the greedy, selfish human nature - not the banks, not the brokers, not the wheather, and not the natural disasters, but above all, and especially the governments that forced the economic growth at any price. Namely, those legislators, the majority of whom have never been able to understand the international financial developments, and therefore, the legislation which should help us avoiding another financial crisis, had only been implemented when in 2008 the world has collapsed.
However, the banks should be regulated, not criminalized or stigmatized.
The mechanics of what is happening is both complex and simple.
The Euro is doomed unless they create a United States of Europe. Won't happen as there is no common cause.
People with savings don't know where to put money. Generationally too few (yet) see gold/silver as the refuge history has proven it to be. Real estate is done and still declining. No one wants to just buy illiquid stuff (art? cars?) for fear they lose income and need to get liquid. So its Treasuries/dollar for now. Spending is at a standstill, and until some semblance of stability returns we will return to recession/depression. It is a liquidity trap, and nothing can be done. It is also the worst employment environment, as I can't better my situation. No one hiring, no one promoting, no one spending. I'm working harder for less money. That's deflationary.
Eurozone will collapse, but it may take another two years. And the longer this takes to play out, the worse it will be for all of us.
Won't happen as there is no common cause...
What do they have all those stadiums for then? Isn't soccer, er, football enough to unite?
Did the Coliseum keep Rome intact? Europe shares common interests (football, drinking, the 30-hour workweek, etc.), but I don't think people go to war together for anything less than life/freedom. I've heard lots of war analogies for the Eurozone, which is apt, as this is a financial war.
I said elsewhere that the i banks and hedge funds will sink any SPV solution, simply because they can. They are the strong hands, and the sovereigns are the weak hands. The Euro is done, and any patch solution (i.e. non default) is simply a transfer of taxpayer dollars to traders who will kill (and make a killing on) these patches.
Wine, guns, and guitars!
Alessio Rastani: Is BBC Market Trader Really Yes Men Founder Andy Bichlbaum? http://huff.to/rbyCMK
This guy has a date with a speeding car on a sidewalk.
I would like the apocalypse to hurry up and happen. I'm really tired of waiting for it and my adrenaline gland has given up.
I can't wait to eat out of the dumpster behind McDonalds.
I can't wait to eat out of the dumpster behind McDonalds.
No need to wait. Stake your claims now.
It's obvious that the TPTB/W are sending the signal out, to GET OUT OF THE POOL
Knowing that usually only the 1%'ers have the means to do so.
The average folks with 401's and pensions, etc Won't get the message and wouldn't be able to act on it even if they understood the gravity.
This message is for the 'Financial Advisors' that the 1%'ers employ to manage their estates.
Plug up the hair dryer and toss it in already...the waiting just makes it worse.
I actually felt physically ill reading this because it is so right on the money. The system as we know it is finished and when the collapse comes, we here in North America are going to also get it.
I went back last week and reread Gonzalvo Lira's articles from last year... I'd recommend that you do the same to refresh your thinking on what you need to be doing now.
I have a hard time believing that this is actually happening.
Bank stocks leading.
Gold stocks lagging.
Ohhhh Robo!
Robo, I think I need to give your Mom a call,,, you're making a pest of yourself.
Better stock up on guns and ammo! Oh wait...
I laughed! I cried! I wet myself! The sun peeked out of the gray sky and for a moment the situation was revealed.
Now back to your regularly scheduled program. At the daily management meeting where I work the discussion came up to whether or not we were GOING to be in a recession soon (such conversations affect our hiring practices). Many of the people there expressed the opinion that we were not only NOT in a recession, but that things were just getting better and better. Hope and Change, baby!
Eating the corporate cheese curd.
I enjoy reading Jesse's Cafe Americain... he had a little review on a book called The Garden of the Beast by Erik Larson.
"Through an astute combination of terror, propaganda, and the perversion of the law, an entire people were persuaded to sleepwalk into the abyss."
This is not in reference to current events but the mind set of the Germans in 1933......
In Kubler-Ross terms this guy has already reached the final stage of acceptance, meanwhile the financial elite and douchefuck policy makers are stuck at bargaining.
AMZN within a hairsbreadth of lifetime highs.
I guess things are not all bad........
Corporate greed at it's best, sign of the times.... go amazon!!!
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-allentown-amazon-complaints-20110917,0,7937001,full.story
in terms of what? peanuts, fiat or ipads?? how do you even value anything in this climate as 'lifetime highs'
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble, take our consequence, and make it double.
How can a tiny country like Greece cause so much damage? I don't believe it. The euro is on shaky grounds for many reason, but Greece is not going to destroy it. If it has something to do with CDS, (as I understand it) the CDS do not get paid out in the event of war. Europe can cause Greece to go to war if the only other option was to self-destruct. There already is heated action between Greece and Turkey.
The head of Unicredit who wrote this sounds like a real drama queen. As for Greece, I don't know for sure, but I highly doubt people have a lot of money in the banks anyway. The government has destroyed the poor and middle class. The rich have their money elsewhere. Greece will thrive after a short period of difficulty in the event of default.
MS7
How can a tiny country like Greece cause so much damage?
MS, it's called CONTAGION......................they owe huge sums to banks globally, esp in the Euro zone,who are broke themselves.
It's like lining up dominos, tip ONE, and you know the rest.
How can a tiny country cause so much damage? One word: leverage.
how can one little assasination cause world war one?
that does it i am trading in my gold and silver bullion for greek bonds....
"what the devizahiteleseinkkel start"
Probably the devizahiteleseinkkel will start between fat lady singing and hell freezing.
I particularly like the bits about "Pensions will not be paid" and "ATM machines will run out of cash in minutes." Just imagine the US in a similar situation. Wait - better not.
I have visions of people inserting their ATM cards and after a pause getting an IOU~!
Is this article really a straight-forward exercise in truth-telling, or an attempt to influence the direction of the ECB?
So is it time to be a contrarian and conclude that Greece will be totally fine while Germany burns?
long live the un diluteable one.. GLD and SLV ARE DILUTEABLE FAKES.. when by some strange alchemy my one ounces become half ounces I will change strategy.. until then do what the fuck you want with your smoke and mirrors...
another day, another endless deluge of Eurohope headlines driving markets up...
it would be funny if it wasn't so damn pathetic
sad really.
"2) Support those who took the rose hill francs their apartment?"
What???!!!
My head asplode...
"Rose Hill" is google translation of "Rozsadomb", the luxury district of Budapest. Some people bought investment real estates in this district with CHF in hope of higher returns during the heydays of the credit boom.
However, the big majority simply used CHF credit to finance their own house. They were fooled by the low interest rate of CHF which seemed as a salvation after the high inflation periods of the HUF. While the banks used this carry trade to rip the population off. In this sense, Hungary is a mix of Greece and Iceland, a mix of fire and ice. Not yet sure who wins.
Let me know if you need more translation.
Baffeled. Getting funnier every moment.
Will submit a translation of the non-translated parts in a few. Will send it to tips@ZH
EDIT: sent! Some nice gems hiding beyond google's skills =)
I am looking forward to reading this one!!! Come on Tyler, put it on the site.
I'll have two of what the lady on the balcony is drinking.
Meanwhile, this very moment, the US market is putting the periscope up and the klaxon is blaring.
So the greek debt crisis could be analogous to Greek Fire. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_fire
In one movie (TimeLine) Greek Fire is depicted as a burning agent that increased it's flame if water is put on it. Seems to me that the more the TPTB try and fix the greek situation, the bigger the flame grows.
From above:
"Banks are so important to the economy, fuel carriers, which in times of crisis in the economies most vulnerable points, which therefore must be protected and safeguarded at all costs."
At all costs, Bitches.
Greece: The lube that keeps on giving.
Desperately seeking waxed WallStreet trophy wives for 3-way bufu pleasure, will pay in silver coinage.
That's an image I didn't need.... why don't you go trolling on a porn site, you'll have better luck and not have people think you are a "full retard".....
now now, you like it out in the open...so keep your balance with men's primal urges gone viral. Laff and enjoy a man's dream turn into popcorn or pocporn.
(channeling Pacino)
"YOUR OUT OF ORDER! THIS WHOLE (Eurozone) IS OUT OF ORDER!"
(dragged kicking and screaming) "WAIT! WAIT! I'VE JUST FINISHED MY OPENING STATEMENT"
He who panics first panics best.
Panic now, avoid the rush.
Anyone notice this gem from his Wikipedia entry:
wait, what's this? rally fading, DOW slipping, NASDAQ and S&P in the red? right in the middle of national Eurohope week? bansters and traders preaching the end is extremely nigh?
is the great ponzi finally unraveling right before our very eyes? have enough people finally realized that the titanic has indeed taken on to much water and are now ignoring the band and the deck chair arrangement ?
stay tuned...
Naw, its just people burping up hopium before they take another mouthful of it.
There are plenty reasons why the "system" will collapse eventually unless everything gets restructured and redefined. For reasons closer related to population, resources and climate.
But this crisis is not it. Instead, I'm once again reminded of the "bailout or else" rhetoric in 2008 which put the US into eternal bondage to their banking overlords.
I call PEAK ARMAGEDDON.
Now let's see if German politicians are made from the same cheap cloth as their US counterparts and if they will also unmask themselves as mere whores of the banking cabal.
Do I have my history correct? Wasn't it the collapse of a "UniCredit" back then that got the 1920s Great Depression ball rolling?
I was close:
"These same factors, ironically, led to the failure of big bank Credit-Anstalt in May 1931. The bank’s failure knocked Europe off the gold standard and directly led to the Great Depression. Credit-Anstalt is the predecessor of UniCredit."
http://www.thetraderswire.com/porter-stansberry-watch-this-canary-in-the...
that BBC trader made 100% sense to me.
The "News"-Media flashed his message for a second across the screen describing him as "mad".
But that was the only sane thing I heard all year...
cause you wanna hear what you wanna hear and nothing more:
"imploding, collapsing" sh*t like that make you happy.
"Head Of UniCredit Securities Predicts Imminent End Of The Eurozone And A Global Financial Apocalypse"
Any sane rely on that crap? Or everyone here believe world will
end right here right now? And 4k ZH doomsters will make it happened?
Keep moaning.
doomed ....drowning in US 15 trillion Debt plus Interest for generations to come
totally cactus and fubar (fucked up beyond all recognition)
I am sorry, but this whole "Europe is Dead - the Euro is Dead - Greek Default heralds the bond-pocalyse" is bullshit - and it plays directly into the hands of all those silent schemers that want to erect a World Super Central Bank to 'Save' everything. Think of this as the building the Death Star. Sounds like a great idea now, but wait until its hovering over your mother's house in your home town.
Greece defaulting is no different than some Harriet Housewife getting foreclosed on or some El Monte Chinese rubber-dog shit distributor shlepping their inventory to a stor-all at midnight. All the side derivatives based upon the movement of 'dis and 'dat are not the Real Economy. They are ether-talk among bookies - not to be made whole by the public's future labor.
Take the hair cut and move on. These are bad debts - discounted and amid a workout. These losses are compared to the trillions in gains the TBTF made over the last century. The bonds are held by private banks that failed in their due diligence. In fact the TBTF charged Fees to bring these failing PIIGS bonds to market - an even greater incentive to seize the TBTF and jail the bankers. They caused the very fraud everyone is freaking out about. If they can't stay solvent under the terms of their own machinations, let them go down with all their valueless stock. Nobody is giving you a 'Bailout.' Yes, then there is everyone else, but let them have their turn.
Its not the Black Scourge.
The Sun also rises.
This drum beat is all more private profits and public losses.
This drum beat for dire futures is the same swill served Amerika by Paulson for TARP.
Don't get fooled again.
Oh. Did the FRB's new cyber-command read all that?
Fuck You Fed. Your criminal ways are numbered too.
This all makes a whole lot of sense but for one glaring error: You don't seem like you are a poet so why put---- among all your excellent facts and commentary----- that "The Sun Also Rises", as it empahtically does not. : - (
I'm a (Warrior) Poet. And I Know It.
I'm not a terrible fan of Hemmingway's drunken cry-babies, but I always considered The Sun Also Rises to be hopeful of a new day. Sure we are surrounded by a demented slaughterhouse of fear and anxiety, but at the end of the day we know there is a goodness in working to a better day for our families and communities.
This is the foundation of our Liberty, which is what is at stake in all these financial games.
Tyler Durden: Its not until you lose everything that you are free to do anything.
Tyler,
I hope that will find someone to properly translate the Hungarian because Google has done a terrible job.
It may be saying only what we want to hear---so far this piece is insensible.
Thanks for the effort, though om
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTtu_8yiwq4
From Sept 27, 2011 to Jean-Claude Junker Euro President.
Wildman Nigel.... love that man!!!! Thanks for the link.
Brilliant!
Excellent. But 4831 views? The world is indeed sleepwalking into an abyss.
Ah, Nigel Farage. That angry rightwing British nutjob.
He should be asking why the Windsors and the Rothschilds are fucking each other silly.
NO! Instead he probably gets all orgasmic about that old farting Queen and her thieving cabal. Like any other well programmed idiot Brit.
We'll see who has the last laugh!
This one even better:
Farage: Isn't the EU quite as bad as the USSR, Mr Tusk?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKfdL0WHm7c
"Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment" .. it should have said "bet" rather than investment.
Bet lost. Move on. whats the biggie?? Oh yeah. California.
Google translation:
Europe's common currency is virtually dead. The euro's doomed situation. The only open question now is, that European governments and the European Central Bank's desperate rearguard action even number of days to keep the spirit in Greece. For the moment, when Athens is declared bankrupt, a "10 magnitude" earthquake will shake Europe, which will be the overture to a whole new era in the life of the old continent.
Real translation:
I was stiff during my recent travels throughout Europe and Greece. In Greece, they were desperate for rear action. One night in Athens, it felt like a magnitude 10 earthquake. Afterwards, I was completely spent, but I felt like a new man as I listened to Mozart's overture.
"Support those who took the rose hill francs their apartment?"
Aye to that brother! Keep on smiling won't you.
"Rose Hill" is google translation of "Rozsadomb", the luxury district of Budapest. Some people bought investment real estates in this district with CHF in hope of higher returns during the heydays of the credit boom. I hope this helps to understand the mistranslation.
However, the big majority simply used CHF credit to finance their own house. They were fooled by the low interest rate of CHF which seemed as a salvation after the high inflation periods of the HUF. While the banks used this carry trade to rip the population off. In this sense, Hungary is a mix of Greece and Iceland, a mix of fire and ice. Not yet sure who wins.
Let me know if you need more translation.
"Is the European Central Bank part of the government, or is it privately owned?
It’s government-owned, but Europe’s governments themselves are being privatized by a financial oligarchy. The Europeans can’t imagine a private central bank – at least, not yet. So it is a government body, but it’s independent of the government. It’s run by bank officials, not by elected officials or by parliament, although its heads are appointed by parliament. So the situation there is very much like the Federal Reserve here. Bankers in effect have a veto power over any bank officer that does not act as a lobbyist to defend their interests vis-à-vis the rest of the economy.
The kind of administrators that are going to get appointed either to the U.S. Federal Reserve or to the European Central Bank are those with financial experience that can be got only by working for the big banks. Heads of the Federal Reserve, for example, are basically appointed from Goldman Sachs to act as their lobbyist, as Tim Geithner did when he ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His first concern was to bail out the big banks and Wall Street, shifting the loss onto taxpayers."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/09/michael-hudson-debt-deflation-in-america.html
A guy see his house in flames and, crying out and loud, say: "It's a fire"
Where was this Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy when things were not freagin obvious? Perhaps reading his own name on a letters soup or anything but around here.
"Szalay-Berzeviczy started his career at Budapest Bank's Foreign Operations Division in 1990 before joining Bank Austria Creditanstalt's International Markets Division."
Bank Austria Creditanstalt, hmmmmmmm, why does that name sound so familiar?
From Wiki for those that do not remember...
The Creditanstalt was based in Vienna, founded in 1855 as K. k. priv. Österreichische Credit-Anstalt für Handel und Gewerbe (approximately translated as: Imperial royal privileged Austrian Credit-Institute for Commerce and Industry) by the Rothschild family. Being very successful, it became the largest bank of Austria-Hungary. It declared bankruptcy on May 11, 1931. It has been said that this event resulted in a global financial crisis and ultimately the bank failures of the Great Depression.
Question is, how many of these Euro countries are busy printing their own currencies?
Germany has to be. France probably is. Greece and Italy would probably have them stockpiled already.
The day it falls over, they'll kill the bank run by introducing a new currency at 2:1 with the US$ and look like local hero's for a moment.
Until everyone realises they just lost 2/3 of their spending power instantly.
In this case Hungary is still using forints and is not in the EZ. But, most consumer lending for autos and mortgages has been denominated in euro and Swiss francs. As those appreciate, especially the franc, against the forint, Hungarians find themselves saddled with debt service payments that they simply can't pay. Remember that the 30 year fixed mortgage we take for granted in the USA is almost unheard of in Europe, like in Spain where 20 year variable is the norm, and once you get that paid you have a balloon payment that requires a second new mortgage later. And in a lot of places (Ireland for one) mortgage debts cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, once you sign that mortgage you will never be free of it even if you lose your house in default.
For example, if you bought a house or car in mid 2008 at 220 forints to the euro you had to use that many forints to buy enough euro to make your installment, now at 288 forints to the euro you are spending the grocery money to make your payments, and it is even worse with the franc. Mid 2008 it was 140 forints to the franc and peaked at 269 in July.
"Is the European Central Bank part of the government, or is it privately owned?
It’s government-owned, but Europe’s governments themselves are being privatized by a financial oligarchy. The Europeans can’t imagine a private central bank – at least, not yet. So it is a government body, but it’s independent of the government. It’s run by bank officials, not by elected officials or by parliament, although its heads are appointed by parliament. So the situation there is very much like the Federal Reserve here. Bankers in effect have a veto power over any bank officer that does not act as a lobbyist to defend their interests vis-à-vis the rest of the economy.
The kind of administrators that are going to get appointed either to the U.S. Federal Reserve or to the European Central Bank are those with financial experience that can be got only by working for the big banks. Heads of the Federal Reserve, for example, are basically appointed from Goldman Sachs to act as their lobbyist, as Tim Geithner did when he ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. His first concern was to bail out the big banks and Wall Street, shifting the loss onto taxpayers."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/09/michael-hudson-debt-deflation-in-america.html
Cut the cancer out. Some of these countries never should have been in a common currency union to begin with. Italy ....Greece combined with powerhouse Germany? Come on! Their economies, culture, value systems, etc are too different.
Save the Euro currency but cut off the dead wood and let them default and start afresh backing their local currencies by....gold & silver and whatever other commodities they have...a basket of commodities perhaps.
Not a bad idea.
Euro never was for good. It's conception has to do with similar vehicles to exercize supranational power over Europe.
Charlemagne endeavour.
And yet, nobody is talking about the common currency shared by Alabama and New York?
Gimme a break.
I'm beginning to think that none of the major economies are going to crash, or surge. It seems more than likely that we will all be stuck in the stagnant middle... There will be individual companies that find the way to thrive. But for the macro picture, it could be agnoizingly sideways for many quarters.
JoLo's new red dress was way too short, I read....
..and how about Jessica Simpson; Is she pregnant or ain't she?!
Forget about the Fred, the EuroClowns, the Sarkozy quest for the next Nobel Peace prize and relax ....
Hey, wait, Dr Oz is coming on right now!!!
See ya later....
That is pretty apocalyptic. After last weeks DEFLATION scare it feels like the markets are ready to think inflation again. At least for awhile. There may be a turn coming.
Further thoughts: http://ghickeyblog.blogspot.com
gh
Austerity works. Free markets should crush stupid socialist countries. You can't have it both ways, socialism and capitalism do not and cannot share a bed. The nightmare of social justice through 'progressivism' needs to end.
Preach it brother
A single currency for an economy as strong as Germany on one hand and relatively weaker economies like Greece or Ireland on the other is not sustainable in the long run. The idea of the stronger countries in the Euro zone to keep on bailing out the weaker ones repeatedly will be a difficult one to sell to the citizens of the economically stronger countries.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
Why the hell not? You've got about 10% very productive US States and 90% leeches. It sill works!
The US doesn't want to give up their selfrighteous supreme power and reserve currency.
Just listening to Obama giving advice to the Europeans. Who the fuck does he think he is? His own people don't support him and he barely escaped bankruptcy earlier this year.
Thanks but no thanks.
"Deer In The Headlights" pic coming to you soon ..................
Big Picture: What happens in Greece and how it is handled is the beta test for the rest of the EU. After all the accounting tricks, lies and deceptions, false promises, loans, bailouts and money printing fail to stabilize Greece, panic will ensue, followed by a controlled bankruptcy and much lower standard of living resulting in a further transfer of wealth to the elites. This will become the blueprint for other countries!
" Atilla, why so anxious?" Come to bed now, it'll be fine. Ildiko
A few years back I interviewed for a job with an American subsidiary of Unicredit. The head guy was an Italian banker from Unicredit HQ. He was pretty much a total idiot.
Maybe Greece is toast, this time, or maybe it isn't, but Unicredit passing judgement on the event has zero information content.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Georgios Panandreou pledge financial co-operation in Berlin yesterday.
TRANSATLANTIC tensions over the financial crisis re-emerged yesterday after Germany hit back at US President Barack Obama for criticising Europe's leaders, suggesting that the Americans stick to solving their own problems.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who faces a critical parliamentary vote over the euro-zone bailout tomorrow, let loose at Mr Obama and his administration for its calls on Europe to reflate its economy to avert recession.
"The idea that you need to boost growth by taking on ever greater debt is the wrong idea.
I am deeply convinced of that," Ms Merkel said.
George Papandreou, the Greek Prime Minister, was at her side last night in Berlin. After their talks, Ms Merkel said that Germany wanted a strong Greece and would do everything necessary to support it.
Mr Papandreou said that his country would "definitely" meet all its obligations to its international creditors.
Wolfgang Schauble, the German Finance Minister, was scathing in his response to the US President's charge on Monday that Greek debt and a failure by European leaders to deal with it was "scaring the world".Mr Schauble said: "It is always much easier to give advice to others than to decide for yourself. I am well prepared to give advice to the US Government. The USA is a huge continent, totally different."
The swipe at the Americans came after Ms Merkel pledged Germany's backing for Greece as the countries of the embattled euro zone moved quietly towards a much expanded new rescue plan. The new scheme will not be publicly broached until after the Chancellor rides out a party rebellion and the delicate Bundestag vote on the last aid package tomorrow.
Ms Merkel, who faces resistance to further bailouts from inside her centre-right coalition, made clear to Mr Papandreou that Germany expects Greece to keep its word on debt-cutting.
She said Berlin had "absolute respect" for the efforts that Greece and added: "From our side, we will offer the help needed so that Greece regains the confidence of the financial markets."
International inspectors are to return to Athens today before the expected endorsement of Greece's next €8 billion ($10.97bn) hand-out from a €110bn package agreed to last year.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/merkel-hits-back-at-obamas-econ...
I don't know what he is talking about but it is lunchtime and I'm getting hungary just reading this.
Sorry but to translate all that will take a while for me. :-)
I wonder if this might be a scare tactic to get people behind more bailouts?
I wonder if bankers are the most overpaid, least valuable people on the planet.
The answer to both is - YES.
Bailouts ensure that bankers can keep earning fees for nothing and true intelligentia is typically poor.
hmmmmm ... Just as "BBC trader" has another 15 minutes of fame .. his blog mysteriously shuts down ? This is old news I suppose .
my lies better than your lies
my lies better than yours
my lies better cause it eats keynesian ration
my lies better than yours
Sucks to be Euro.....................................
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/28/eurozone-merkel-rebel-idUSL5E7...
Ostracised German euro rebel defends 'no' voteFrank Schaeffler - Germany's equivalent to Ron Paul or better?
That man has balls!
Tyler,
I've tried to find the article on index.hu. There is none. The last "Berzeviczy" article was written on 9/21 and it is not the quoted one.
I don't know if they have removed the article or if it is a "hoax" (or I am just plain stupid). Please send me the direct link to the original Hungarian piece.
Thanks!
It is on today's main page under the title "A nagy bankrablas"
A nagy bankrablás 2011.09.28. 10:37 - Szalay-Berzeviczy Attila, a Budapesti Értékt?zsde volt elnökeEurópa közös fizet?eszköze gyakorlatilag halott. Az euró helyzete menthetetlen. Az egyetlen nyitott kérdés most már csak az, hogy az európai kormányok és az Európai Központi Bank reménytelen utóvédharca még hány napig tartja a lelket Görögországban. Hiszen abban a pillanatban, amikor Athén cs?döt jelent, Európát egy tízes erej? földrengés rengeti meg, ami egy teljesen új korszak nyitánya lesz az öreg kontinens életében.
Got it thanks!
Many to me, things we say alcoholiskybodega talking with special sauce. Holy Kraputski the sky falling down is!!!
Squeeky the Fromm, Reporter Girl
Good essay on fiat Euro versus gold standard:
http://www.goldstandardinstitute.net/2011/09/the-destiny-of-mankind-hing...
Why does most everyone seem to assume there will automatically be a gold-backed currency (or even just a pure PM system) when a fiat system collapses? What has happened and what will always happen is that the "new fiscally conservative bank" or even the "new goverment" issues the "new and improved money" and the game begins anew. If the new fiat regime (and government) is stable enough, holders of PM will compete for entry back into the new fiat.
There may indeed be a transition period where the value of gold skyrockets, as it becomes the only thing trusted during a fiat/political collapse period... however, during that time, it would seem the best course would be to put the PM's into real property and durable goods as direct trades. The mechanics and timing (even legality) of that trade will be the crux to making a heavy investment in PM's pay off. Of course, if you consider PM's to be the hedge for armageddon, then the value is what you make of it.
But if a given government is strong enough, there will be no gap period. For example, if the Euro fails, what be the price of gold in the new DM? I suspect during a "clean" fiat transition, PM's as a wealth preservation play will not hold up as well as real property and certain durables (ie capital machinery, etc.)
And what currency would benefit from the end of the Euro?
I hope he remembered to short his bank's stock before posting this analysis.
But on the whole, it doesn't seem overly pessimistic. If Greece defaults and Greek bank accounts are not protected, it would trigger immediate bank runs in Italy, Spain, and other weaker European countries. The European banking system would shut down, probably leading to a depression.
The Germans seem to think that they can delay a Greek default by dribbling small loans to Greece for the next couple years, and perhaps they can. But I don't think they can prevent a loss of confidence in Spain and Italy without creating a multi-trillion dollar fund to back them. The euro-TARP plan might just possibly work, but it really seems far too small to me.
The whole idea of allowing banks to make all sorts of risky investments using derivatives and complex swaps seems totally flawed to me. We should go back to the old days where banks were limited to safe investments and where the loan risk was retained by the local bank. Otherwise this is just going to happen again and again.
Insert US government for Greek government and see how it reads in 9-12 months.
He is Hungarian, Hungarians are known for their pessimism, don't listen to him. Everything will be fine, 160% debt/GDP is sustainable!
Step Aside BBC "Trader": Head Of UniCredit Securities Predicts Imminent End Of The Eurozone And A Global Financial Apocalypse ..."the euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default"... “The euro is beyond rescue”... “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”...."A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe."..."Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.” Road Map to Orderly Default Keeping Greece in Euro We've gone beyond worrying about death to focusing on minimizing the mess. - Jenna Orkin Couple that announcement with this: US a Bigger Mess Than Europe: Investor Jim Rogers - Jenna Orkin "It's just going to make the eventual collapse even worse, because they're not dealing with the problems," he said. "The solution for too much debt is not more debt - although that's what they seem to think it is." http://www.collapsenet.com/154.html
When you're talking about the world economy, there are no good collapses and bad collapses. Like the megatonage of the nuclear bomb that explodes over your head, size really doesn't matter.
German Spiegel Online about the BBC 'Trader':
http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=U...
Anyway, well done :-)
this guy is working with / for the IMF.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000417754057
1
Vote down!
-1My recent quite succesful research that lead to successful prediction of Silver (in March 13) and Gold (in May 6th) spot price movements over last 6 months in these silver and gold price charts:
Silver prices 2011-2013
Gold prices 2011-2013
and further analysis has lead to a conclusion-explained here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2860#p34267
That:
an interesting hypothesis emerges that , starting from q2 2012, in H2 2012 commodity prices in USD will rapidly converge towards a certain Bancor equilibrium for the first time, and than fluctuate around it in future, where:
1) the price of paper USD will be de facto determined by amount of a commodity it can buy in this equilibrium rather then the commodities price is as to today will be determined by the value of a certain currency set by exchange rates;
2) In fact, it will be the basket of all commodities that will serve as the ultimate reference medium of exchange for all paper currencies, and will de facto replace thus USD as world reserve currency;
3) the USD price ratios between different commodities will change so that to reflect the monetary ability (i.e. availability, longevity) of a given commodity to be the part of this world reserve currency, exchange medium for trade, not only its utility. Hence the price ratios IN USD between different commodities may differ quite radically ( as seen in example with gold/silver ratio and silver/copper price ratio) from what they are today;
4) if the logic of exchange medium effect on USD price ratio formation between commodities in USD can be discovered, the prices of commodities in USD can be quite accurately predicted after H2 2012, and ratios may not fluctuate as much as in USD as reserve currency time;
5) In such case, the prices in USD of other assets (land, houses, food, produce, etc) relative to commodities (and, of course, USD ) will also move from their current ratios to represent their potential as exchange medium for trade.
The signal for such conscious or partly conscious move to de facto Bancor system of international reserve currency will be triggered by official data of recession in q1 2012 in the USA (predicted here:DJIA 2011-2012 and the recession in the USA in q1 2012) and the resulting obvious unsustainability of USA debt ( it has already entered bubble precrash phase in 2000, as shown here: USA debt is forming a very soon precrash pattern) which will continue to grow superexponentially ( that is , in equivalent subsequent periods of time increases of debt value in USD will continue to grow) and imminent default (crash correction ) of the USA on its debt in near future.
FED not controlling Google translations yet?
Until you get a check in the mail for more than a billion dollars which you can cash and actually spend we are in a deflation. Until minimum wage reaches about $80,000 per hour we are still in a deflation. You might look at the price of hamburger and say it was $2.39 a year ago and it is $6 now and tell yourself that it is outrageous inflation, and on your personal scale it seems to be just that, outrageous, but trust me until you get that check we are still in a major deleveraging - deflation - default event.
What you have to understand is that when we talk about debt, yours, mine, Greece, the USA, consumer, corporate, sovereign, city state and local, when we talk about debt we are talking about real "money" that was created the moment it was borrowed. Money creation beyond above and actual production is inflation, what is happening now is just settling of accounts, and it is only recently that it has come to light how easily and rampantly our money was counterfeited and "created" by crooks.
You have X number of people working X number of hours to produce X number of widgets (widgets for those without a degree in finance is everything or anything, it can be macroeconomic or micro depending on context). And you have the savings of all previous x number of people doing that. What that amounts to is gross world product ongoing plus all the things they produced in the past which have durability. Those things have value (as in someone wants to buy it, trade gold for it, it has a price), most of what we create ends up in a landfill soon enough, but in the meanwhile it has utility, and some of what we create is very durable and maintains some value for generations. A BIC lighter that has lit a thousand joints for a buck at the flea market served it's purpose and died, but it had that value. A castle on 100 acres in Galway on a famous lake well built will have value for hundreds of years to come, it has durability. Some stuff is temporary and has temporary value, most of the time that using up of value is compensated for by new demand. But when we create stuff that is very durable like the castle in Ireland it's value exceeds generations, it becomes wealth, an asset that can be counted upon.
We used to place value on everything based upon how much gold it would take to buy the right to own that. Gold played this role because it was the rarest element known to man. There was more of everything so everything became valued in how much gold it took to own it. Silver was the second on the list, but even that was 15-16 times more abundant than gold. But, there was so little gold, and even silver that a man with one ounce of both ruled everything he could see from his tower. Everyone worked for him, he was a count at least, a baron if he was friend of the king and gave his metal to his leader. Metal was so scarce that copper was real money. A pennyweight of copper bought your meals for a day. And it all worked very well in the dark ages. Provided you enjoy being born into slavery.
America had reached a pinnacle never before dreamed of by any people. In part because the nation said that all of it's gold belonged to all of it's people. It was the original communism. But it did not seem bad at the time because no matter how much wealth got concentrated into so few hands there was always so much more. By the way that is a reality that has not changed, for those that have turned doom and gloom into a religion all I can tell you is that America is still by FAR the richest place on the planet and always will be. If some few have managed to destroy capitalism via over concentration of wealth that is temporary, it will come back and America still has resources China and Europe envy.
This can't be happening. I found a 50 Euro Cent piece in my change jar the other day and I was sure I was going to strike it rich.
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