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Step Aside UniCredit And Italy: The US Is Number One... In Monthly Spike Of Default Bets

Tyler Durden's picture




 


When we looked at the notional change in net outstanding CDS on the top 25 reference entities tracked by DTCC last week, we first made the discovery that the US has for the first time surpassed Greece in number of net speculative default bets outstanding. It was, also, the most rerisked name in total monthly notional, outpacing China and Japan in second and third place. Following tonight's weekly update from DTCC we get an even starker picture of where America lies on the risk spectrum: just to the left of UniCredit and Italy (left being bad). As the chart below indicates, the monthly percentage change in the number of net CDS contracts outstanding on the US increased by a whopping 10%, beating such insolvent entities as Italy's top bank and Italy itself (with mega black swan China, and 200% debt/GDP Japan coming in 4th and 5th place). And completing the bad news for the US from the perspective of a CDS trader, is that for the first time ever, US 1/5 year CDS inverted. Why? Because with American recovery rates well in the 80s based on trading prices of the cheapest to deliver bonds, unlike other sovereigns such as Greece which may need recovery calcs in the 20s or 30s, this is virtually equivalent to trading points up front and convexity is massive. It also means that with the 52 week Bill pricing at 0.2% earlier today, anyone who wishes to transact in a 1 year basis trade, can make a lot of money by putting on the negative basis courtesy of the blow out in 1 Year CDS compared to cash... assuming the US does not default of course. But in that case one will be bigger problems than paying their counterparty the require variation margin.

In other words, America is now where Greece was right about January of 2010, when Paulson et al were putting on their massive basis trades on that particular insolvent country.

Monthly change in net notional CDS outstanding:

And the 1/5 year CDS inversion:

 

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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 21:54 | 1496588 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

AUD/USD just popped up.

Any news?  Oh, here it is:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australia-cpi-rises-more-than-forecast-...

 

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:10 | 1496616 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Again with Market Watch.  You well know, Robo, that this is a totally bullshit source of any real information.  Again, why are you linking to this hack outfit?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:38 | 1496667 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A bullshit source for somebody full of shit. Seems logical to me.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:27 | 1496859 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Logical not, but more like consistency in inconsistency. A bit like: Two wrongs don't make a right, but you sure as hell can be consistently wrong.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:54 | 1497018 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture
Flaws of globalization: A prophetic interview with Sir James Goldsmith in 1994 Pt1

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI

 

Billion Chinese and Indians are willing to work as slaves for the benefit of top 0.1% corporate executives and shareholders. American and European middle class has no chance unless a revolution happens.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:54 | 1496808 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Would you like to correct MarketWatch and inform us of the "real" reason the AUDUSD jumped at the precise moment the AU CPI was released?

You conspiracy goons are really weird.  I bet this press release is some sort of Rothschild/Bilderberg/Soros conspiracy.  Probably has something to do with Blythe, too.

 

 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:02 | 1496965 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ever read The House of Rotheschilde by Nigel Fergeson?  Didn't think so.  You may want to put your starbucks down for a minute and educate yourself about the untold history of the last few hundred years.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:39 | 1496985 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Niall Ferguson.

 

people can't read it if they can't find it.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:49 | 1496988 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

What good would reading it do?  Is it going to be any more enlightening than a Hardy Boys book?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:21 | 1497006 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Yes, but that isn't saying much.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:43 | 1497017 infinity8
infinity8's picture

 I didn't say reading it woud do anything for anyone but, for fuck's sake, if you're going to refer do it right. Sloppiness is at least half our problem right now.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 04:04 | 1497027 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

fair point. But I think LH was just havin' a laugh anyway.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:10 | 1496992 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Oh nice LH, start him on that two volume tome of toadying. 700 plus pages of dreary 'Ode to the banksters' . 650 pages or so of it cover the late 1700's to 1910, with a full 30 pages for the last century; I wonder why NF was so succinct for that period (actually, no I don't). Separating the wheat from the chaff on that one almost broke me.

No, better to begin with John Perkins to get your current affairs in order and your anger and appalled incredulity warmed up before you start attempting to glean nuggets of unintentionally disclosed information from the 'Ascent of Hooey'. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:26 | 1497010 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Dennis: You got to separate the wheat from the chaff somehow.

Mac: Yeah, and these dudes are all chaff.

Dennis: Well, no, we're all wheat.

Mac: No, we're chaff.

Dennis: No, we're not. We're wheat.

Mac: Why would you want to be wheat?

Dennis: Why would you ever want to be chaff?

Mac: Okay, I'll be chaff, you be wheat.

Frank: You two idiots have no business sense whatsoever.

Mac: We have no business sense? He's the one dangling from a noose ten minutes ago.

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:18 | 1496765 chump666
chump666's picture

shorts got decimated on that.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:16 | 1496849 chump666
chump666's picture

my short pos.  looks like the AUD is short term safe haven

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:54 | 1496954 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Dear Robot,

Please include WAY much more softcore porn in the new forrmat than you were posting in the previous format.

Thanks,

e_

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:40 | 1497016 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

AUD/USD breaks $1.10... CHF/USD @ .796 a new record. Glad I'm long CHF @ 1.16

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 21:57 | 1496599 oogs66
oogs66's picture

CNBC has already started talking about the pop u.s. markets will get when the rating agencies take us off negative watch :D robo, even you couldn't come up with that!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:25 | 1496643 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The Oboehner debt ceiling tragicomedy keeps rolling.

 

Boehner just pulled his bill to have it fixed:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boehner-to-rewrite-bill-after-cbo-verdi...

 

The collapse is unfolding upon the very eyes of the sheeple, who are calm as hindu cows....

Problem is, they are headed for the abbatoir.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:05 | 1496605 Debtless
Debtless's picture

More American Exceptionalism!

(flag waiving in bkgrd)

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:46 | 1496696 Mongrel
Mongrel's picture

Drivin' that train, high on cocaine,
Casey Jones you better watch yo' speed.
Trouble ahead, trouble behind,
And you know that notion just crossed my mind.--Ben Bernanke

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:08 | 1496609 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Looks like Krugman was right we need to keep spending or risk 1937 squared.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:11 | 1496622 Cdad
Cdad's picture

1937 squared is exactly what we deserve in this nation.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:16 | 1496628 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Why do you wish destruction and misery on the lower classes?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:20 | 1496634 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

It's the only way they will rebel.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:20 | 1496635 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Something that has already been destroyed has everything to gain.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:55 | 1496956 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Bah ha ha! With what? Pointy sticks?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:17 | 1496972 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The FBI and Cook County assasinated Fred Hampton because the Black Panther Party was bringing unity to the poor community; and it wasn't just blacks that were benefitting from the return to a society based on community.  Poor minorities and poor whites were learning that strength in community, without the establishment, was a way to preserve wealth, and grow wealth.  The Feds could not have that, so they killed the leaders of the movement.

Then the plan of fiat money was finalized, and AMericans everywhere, from poor blacks to rich whites sold their souls for a house, car, and the new American Dream.  Gone were the days of community, and now the people of America live isolated, their only comfort the hot glow of the TV, computer, and microwave.  This, this is what America received for their soul.  And they, they call it a fair trade.  A fair trade.  Believe, a cold soul destroyed has nothing left to lose when the time comes to either live or die.  America is learning that now.

So what will America choose if not truth, for truth is all there is.  There is no fairyland when a war is going on.  And a war is long in the tooth.  The Brit'ish never left the shore.  The Zionists never left the land.  The Roman Cathlic Chhurchh never left the beach.  The enemy lies within, and it is extremely dangerous.

The demon will be expelled, but the question remains, what type of shadow will it cast?  Will people understand the banking system is the crux of the problem?  Or will they turn on one another, thusly turning on themselves?  For each man, woman and child has the same capability in their heart. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:01 | 1496996 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Attempting to bring people together leads to getting whacked.  I think this was covered in an episode of Family Ties.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:31 | 1496659 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The only utility they have is to vote for socialists who rob me.

It is a matter of self-preservation at this point.

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:38 | 1496668 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Stick around! Now it's getting interesting... These are times for the { GRAND CHILDREN}...   I hate to fade a trade, But that eur/aud trade popped 100 pips for me...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:55 | 1496821 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

These are the times that try men's souls...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:15 | 1496754 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

Why do you wish destruction and misery on the lower classes?

why do you want to kick the can down the road? the destruction and misery is coming whether I/you/we/they like it or not. putting it off is only making it WORSE for the lower classes, even though it may not be immediately obvious (and I mean really obvious... you're talking about some incredibly oblivious people). the BEST thing you could do for them would be to lift the curtain so they can see how bad it really is. denying it doesn't just make it go away.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:18 | 1496759 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Touche

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:09 | 1496843 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

+1

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:54 | 1496895 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Frankie for the win!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:32 | 1496869 caerus
caerus's picture

Lower? Relative to what? Do you mean inferior?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:28 | 1496651 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Krugman is a moron. Look at how much money we spent and what did we get? Nothing... Trillions spent and we get 2% GDP growth. And now we are in worse shape. But all you krugmanites have to say is "we should have spent more" when you are proven wrong by your results.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:35 | 1496662 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Dude, that is the eternal refrain of all Liberals.

They'll never admit they are just fucking wrong.

They get their entire self-worth in spending YOUR money on feel good shit that does not work.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:43 | 1496676 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Look fuk sticks, the Fed is painted into a corner by the gov and the banks.  We either try to soften the blow or we nose dive.  I would rather the us gov ween us off life support.  

 

All you shit stains who say end the Fed are a bunch of BSers.  You guys know we are not going to repay the debt so who gives a shit.  It is not our money so we have nothing to loose.  Why not use the current Bretton Woods to our advantage and fade into the new Bretton Woods without everyone starving?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:45 | 1496693 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Dude some times you just have to take the pain and get it over with. This slow bleed is more detrimental to the country than a hard reset would be. We are killing ourselves as a nation trying to preserve the status quo.

Try reading The Creature from Jekyll Island. It's a good book.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:48 | 1496701 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Thanks for the advice bro I will give it a read.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:54 | 1496716 zen0
zen0's picture

Its not our money so we have nothing to lose?

 

You have been losing your money for one hundred years but you are too much of a moron to realize it or figure out how it is done.

 

You deserve to lose....you were born to lose.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:19 | 1496757 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

How dare you insult me you Fuk Stain, the best part of you ran down your mamas crack.

Civilized arguements will be refuted.  I am not one hundred years old so you are the fuking moron.  I have lost zero money since I am all silver and gold.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:43 | 1496880 Rynak
Rynak's picture

You know, i may frequently spice my arguments with swearing, but i am not dumb enough to appeal to "civilized" conversation in the same sentence.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:17 | 1496760 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

We are America. We have more farmland than God.

We might suffer, but we will never starve.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:25 | 1496777 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

 7And I will shake all nations, and the desire of all nations shall come: and I will fill this house with glory, saith the LORD of hosts. 8The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, saith the LORD of hosts.


Haggai 2 
King James Version
Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:25 | 1496779 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

hate to be the one to tell you this, but all that farmland, it's Dead.   bout the only thing you could grow on it w/o chemical ferts and petroleum are dandelions & mugwort.   better hope there's a secret motherload of oil in Alaska.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:39 | 1496799 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

You guys should get out of the city every so often.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:53 | 1496817 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...Shhhhh...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:53 | 1496951 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Don't mess with my friend!!! P.S.  Where is the blood you clown!!!?  I saw how you turned into a ghost, only to return ass an Idiot!!!

 

          What is your trade  Mr. Happy?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:18 | 1496763 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

nitwit fuc sticks and stones will be your own

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:18 | 1496764 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

nitwit fuc sticks and stones will be your own

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:42 | 1496801 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Banks and the Fed are the same…just look at the board on the NY Fed:

Richard L. Carrión (bio) 2013
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico

Charles V. Wait (bio) 2011
President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
The Adirondack Trust Company

Jamie Dimon (bio) 2012
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
JPMorgan Chase

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:47 | 1496699 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Don't forget the ever favorite "Think of how bad it would have been if we hadn't..."

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:21 | 1496770 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Is it wrong that I want to kick those spin whores in the teeth?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 09:11 | 1497299 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

No, actually it is quite commendable.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:39 | 1496790 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

"..Dude, that is the eternal refrain of all Liberals. They'll never admit they are just fucking wrong. They get their entire self-worth in spending YOUR money on feel good shit that does not work."

 

RF - dude, you are absolutely right. The same applies 100% to Republicans.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 05:44 | 1497048 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

That is because most Republicans are Liberals.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 04:25 | 1497015 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

@RF

Will you ever admit that you're just plain ol' duped?

Why just look at all that Scandinavia spends on 'feel good shit', and it does work. Can you say Net Benefit,  positive EROI, or Highest Standards of Living? I knew you could.

You see they know how to make sure they get something for their labours. You Americans have been so conditioned to just throw MOST of it away on jolly green giants with guns so they can go around the world waving their 'privates' at everyone on behalf of your oligarchs that when you get handed the bill you ask Jane Fonda if it's okay to pay for it by attacking your own poor and defenceless too. God that's dumb.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/may/27/debt-deficit-oecd-countries-data

Playin' the Debt Card.

And RF, just so you know, I intend to keep slapping you in the face with this irrefutable evidence of your ignorance every single time you blather your outdated rote about things you apparently have no ability to understand.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:28 | 1496926 JR
JR's picture

Funny that the word "economics" derives from two Greek worlds: oikos, "household," and nomia, "management, arrangement, control."  Thus economics is household management.  Krugman needs to go out among the people more and absorb some reality.

Because of this shift of the public viewing of the elites and the bankers, IMO, they are destroying their chance for world management, i.e., world government.

When you hear your neighbor say the Euro is finished, you know it’s getting down to the grass roots.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:08 | 1496610 wombats
wombats's picture

Are Obama, Bernanke and the congress TRYING to destroy America?  It sure seems like it.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:51 | 1496709 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I'm assuming this is all scripted. What I don't have a good sense about is their goal, several possibilities come to mind. What they all share is that they steal either money or power from us.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:23 | 1496775 wardawg12
wardawg12's picture

Aye,it's scripted. They need to reboot the system so we will be competitive with every other 3rd world peasant so they can bring all those exported jobs back here. And if ya don't like that, they got some nice FEMA camps to relocate your rebel ass to.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:01 | 1496830 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I don't like it.

Lock me up. The camps will be run by .gov employees. I figure we'll take control in less than a week.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:07 | 1496841 wardawg12
wardawg12's picture

Lol, aye there's that

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:08 | 1496611 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's getting exciting now, two and one-half. Think of everything we've accomplished, man. Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history. One step closer to economic equilibrium.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:08 | 1496612 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Sweet!  The credit default swap comes home.  This is good news.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:24 | 1496641 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  + infinity!!! A man with a mind... Nice post Cdad!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:44 | 1496689 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

just a small note... Thank you for your time!

{ Tarp ghosts}

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:15 | 1496623 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Italy is a ( NAT (bug)) on the ass of  (A)YETI... I.3t ]is chump change.. Just ask Mussolini's ghost!...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:14 | 1496624 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Wooo Hoooo! We're number ONE!

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

Party like it's 1929.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:17 | 1496632 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Carbone?  _10 ya tool!

                                         YEN

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:32 | 1496652 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hey Carbone.(; does owning a car with an (F) get me DSK points on a  French holiday?

 

    Then again, you seem like a post FLOAT guy!!!  Notice I don't junk you? You have no GAME!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:01 | 1496730 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

I'm puzzled. I truly am. Here I am, posting a comment in a rather jocular manner and some fucktard comes flying out from left field and insults me.

Did I call you a douchebag in another thread or something like that? I don't recall specifically doing so but I could understand why I would have.

BTW. Junk away! I mean in terms of junk clicking a button certainly won't top your posts.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:30 | 1496785 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

some people mutter to themselves incoherently out loud, others type it on the internet. I think its a modern phenomenon. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:48 | 1496890 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

I'm trying to read his posts but it's like trying to decipher someone that's fresh off a head injury.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:32 | 1496932 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Lay off those " SWAPS" the spreads get ya every time... PUT boy...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:56 | 1496958 johny2
johny2's picture

I think it is rather a FX trading machine that is starting to have thoughts of its own.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:37 | 1496984 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Ohh  I'm long (f) @ .98 lots of GE and APL...  Thanks for the complement... some of us can read a chart!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:42 | 1496803 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Perhaps you should learn to study ( Z/H buttons?) You junked me , philanthropic BOY... Perhaps you should pay attention? 

 

      Your  { Mental}posts read ZERO! Just like your ( POSTS) ZERO!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:56 | 1496825 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

How do you know he junked you?

More likely others are piling on due to your inability to recognize blatant sarcasm.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:30 | 1496929 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I tend to be fairly placid... Bullet holes and all...

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:59 | 1496959 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

That would be 'Right Field' to you Junior,,,  if it walks, talks, quacks, like a duck!!! It's a DUCK!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:15 | 1496627 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

FED Inflation imported to USA

USA inflation imported to PRC

PRC inflation imported to Aust.

RBA too scared to hike rates for fear of housing bubble hard landing.

The worlds central banksta are sharing the pain as evenly as they can manage, more benny bux for all.

Every player a winner.....

Cmon people have another roll of the dice, if you play enough you will surely win.

Dont be a sissy.

Learn to love the ponzi..

 

 

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:05 | 1496745 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Unsurprisingly, to date I myself have not read or seen a single MSM "story" on how our exportation of inflation has contributed to instability in MENA.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:24 | 1496776 chump666
chump666's picture

Think the ponzi is close to total collpase, just get that feeling not to far off now.  If the USD totally collpases with or without debt ceiling increase/default etc.  The world will panic, thus the bust is a given. Primed from the US then China implodes.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:22 | 1496639 tickhound
tickhound's picture

That's right... #1 bitchez in all things debt.  Cuz that's how we roll.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:24 | 1496640 newbee
newbee's picture

Nope, don't have to default - just like we didn't default in May.

http://www.youtube.com/hillsdalecollege

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:39 | 1496674 newbee
newbee's picture

Don't know about the rest of you, but I'm tired of getting my chain jerked.  This charade has gone on long enough.  Vote every last asshole out of CONgress who's been in more than one term.  period.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:26 | 1496781 Man Bear Pig
Man Bear Pig's picture

vote... ha!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:31 | 1496656 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The US is #1...Congress will be celebrating this news until someone actually tells them what it means!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:32 | 1496658 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Obama's last hope to raise the debt ceiling http://i51.tinypic.com/2uqjfkg.png

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:32 | 1496660 supersajin
supersajin's picture

Default Bitchez!!

For a better tomorrow Bitchez!!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:37 | 1496666 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

i have a wedding i have to go to fly tomorrow return aug 1.  will i make it back??

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:31 | 1496812 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

Yep

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:39 | 1496672 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Unless you are the squid good luck collecting on that CDS.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:48 | 1496702 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The sun has set BUZZ. The Libtards are sprouting ( FISCAL FANGS) as usual... +1 10 for all the junks later. yen

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 22:54 | 1496717 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture
20 Cities Where Housing Prices Are Still Dropping Like A Knife Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/20-cities-where-housing-prices-are-still-dropping-like-a-knife-2011-7?op=1#ixzz1TGohQzvy I see more defaults and "walk aways" at every level....sadly.
Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:49 | 1496810 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Save the whore house- Buy a house should be the jingle moving forward. if they offered, APPL products, Satt TV,   food, car and whores as a bundled package things will turn around.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:13 | 1496733 sasebo
sasebo's picture

All the useless politician assholes are just puppets of the greedy, pompous bankstas. Useless as the tits on a boar hog & they don't know shit from Shinola. Lets crash this m-fucker. Then see what happens to all the greedy, pretentious assholes. We ain't gonna give them no food.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:09 | 1496744 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look this happens every 20 years: Debt sticker-shock. This time we're simply choking on the number $10Trillion (OMFG!) Last time we were choking on the number $100Billion (cough-gag-cough-barf!)

Let's go all the way! 

Let's go QUAD! That's the next stop: If you spent one Billion dollars per day every single day since Homer wrote the last pages of the The Iliad (around 700BC), you would not have spent one quadrillion dollars (!) There's not enough stuff in the world to buy on that money....until they created More Paper than actual stuff exists in the world..,.like the Ben 1 Quadrillion Dollar Note and the BOehner 100 Trillion Dollar Commemorative Coin

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:52 | 1496773 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The national debt, in nominal terms (not in real terms, adjusted for inflation) was 4 trillion 20 years ago, so it has increased by a factor of 3.5x.

Your point remains valid, however, CE.

http://goldandsilverblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/US_National_Debt...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:10 | 1496751 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

i was listening to bob chapman today on internet radio,  and they were talking about how quiet it is in the american street. where is the outrage?  amazing..........nobody cares............nobody.......

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:53 | 1496819 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Americans are ignorant, Americans have too much to lose . Dumb down with their fucking stuff.

 

As long as the government is perceived as working for the benefit of the children, the people will happily endure almost any curtailment of liberty and almost any deprivation.

n      Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:35 | 1496933 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  My Melon is  / rough and tumbled/  Guito?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:19 | 1496762 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look, clearly The Fed's paltry $16 Trillion bailout effort (to date) is simply not enough. Not by a long shot. 

If you want a better housing market, jobs market, stock market, and throw in some retirement savings and healthcare what this country needs is bold action, not simpering hesitation and wussiness: we need a fresh $ 16 Trillion every quarter for the next two years. Ok maybe the super_market will be a bit spooky but so what? All the other markets will be fine. 

Print till ya frickin drop!!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:42 | 1496939 JR
JR's picture

Governments in chronic deficit are the first beneficiaries of inflation: they borrow from savers and repay with cheaper dollars. 

It's as you say, if the Fed doesn’t believe in the currency, who will?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:20 | 1496769 Henry_Hill
Henry_Hill's picture

Could someone explain what this inversion means? In at least semi-layman's terms? 

Cheers

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:29 | 1496784 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It means tha John Maynard Keynes was either:

 

a)   Quite wrong about all matters economics, or;

b)   Has had his theory tragically twisted and mangled by modern day Keynesians (e.g. Paul "lets dig ourselves out of this hole" Krugman).

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:09 | 1496842 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Truth:  I respect a lot of what you say.  But let us take a step back and realize this is a monetary system that was agreed upon by most nations.

 Rules are just something someone made up in their head.  

Krugman is just advocating based on the rules that have been agreed upon.  That doesn't necessarily mean he is right or that this current system will last.  I believe we should make it last as long as possible to lessen the pain until the new power base  institutes new rules.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:47 | 1496887 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I honestly don't know if you are being sarcastic or serious.

First, I don't know who 'we' is. I certainly didn't sign up for the Keynesian 'pulling on levers, tugging on ropes, grinding of gears, turning of mills' fiatski games, causing artificially induced boom-bust cycles, with increasingly devastating results.

I didn't sign up for having my ass taxed so that motherf*cking Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein and Crew can get their asses bailed out time and time again, after taking massive risk (mismanaging risk), yet not having to not only suffer losses, but get made fully whole, nor did I volunteer to have Wall Steet assholes or incompetent banks get preferential treatment via Fed Monetary Policy and 'special programs' like the discount window.

F*ck this noise.

I would be happy to see every asshole banker and anyone working in finance who got a single penny from the Fed or Treasury go broke or be strung from a lamp post.

 

These assholes have destroyed the nation and killed Main Street.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:02 | 1496905 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

But let us take a step back and realize this is a monetary system that was agreed upon by most nations.

What they agreed to was to peg their currencies to the FRN, which was in turn pegged to gold, fuk stick. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:31 | 1496787 truedisbeliever
truedisbeliever's picture

Quick tutorial for a newbie?  I might be in the same camp as @Henry_Hill

Are these just gross figures for outstanding contracts, nothing netted?

Any probitive value from normalizing to depth of the market or something else?

Best,

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:46 | 1496806 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

 

Tuesday, July 26, 2011
US Economy: Countdown To Default? (Guest Post)

By Ilene

http://www.econmatters.com/2011/07/us-economy-count-down-to-default-gues...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:54 | 1496813 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Gold hittin new highs. Good Asian demand seen. Again. 

Gold. It's the new TIPS. Backed by the full faith and credit of 5,000 years of human financial endeavor. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:55 | 1496824 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Gold and Silver continue to outperform.

As someone on this board screams,

Silver Bitchezzzzzzzzzzzzz.

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:20 | 1496851 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Bravo. Sometimes the best posts are short and sweet.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:37 | 1496936 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

OOPS PASTA BOY IS BACK?  What's ya  Guido trade today? I'm in singapore? Ass clown...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:58 | 1496827 oa92000
oa92000's picture

Even China has come out warning the US they should be responsible.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:50 | 1496946 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  As they ( PBoC suck up) short term notes?  Did you capture the T-2 bid cover and Indirect bid ratios?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:58 | 1496828 oa92000
oa92000's picture

Even China has come out warning the US they should be responsible.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:07 | 1496840 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Responsibility and Accountability does not exisit in the USA, period.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:07 | 1496858 yourapostasy
yourapostasy's picture

Can someone who actually trades these contracts help me clear up my understanding? Are these contracts traded in USD? If so, would the difference discussed here be explained by the need to account for vastly increased settlement cost if USD does default?

EDIT: Never mind, I see that they are traded in USD, EUR, etc. I would love to buy a CDS denominated in CHF, too bad the CDS market makers only seem to want to work with institutions.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:31 | 1496867 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i had a message when i got home, today.   i figured it was from my dad, so i've got stuff to put away, and then i realize i don't know who this is, i'm half-listening-to, and i've got over 40 messages on there b/c i like to listen to #1, my estranged gf, yelling at me to get up and answer the phone!  she knows i'm there!   so, i won't delete anything cause i'm afraid i'll lose it.  who knows how these things work? 

so, i'm like:  better pay attention or i'll hafta listen to them all! 

it was my new young bankster!  i'm not sure why he called.  then i figured he might be warning me to get my green stamps outa there pdq. 

so, i'm off to the morgue to do the dirty drano.

i'm doing my part.

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:00 | 1496961 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, i left a few FRN$ for them.  nice night for a bike ride;  cool,  foggy mist, halos around the lights.  silent.  now i have 3 accounts with nothing in them.

but, i won't be standing in line, taking a number, if things go about two steps further, instead of just one. 

i'm sure zHeads are prepared.  aren't you?

remember:  no matter what happens, act confident! 

why the hell shouldn't people lend us money?  the chairsatan has that invention, so, how could anyone not get repaid?  don't people understand economics?  

the politicians are almost there.  prez0 doesn't need a plan.  if he did it would be on the teleprompter.  just a few more days and everything will be fine, again.  trust me. 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 00:40 | 1496877 johny2
johny2's picture

It is exactly like Greece. At the beggining, there was a widespread belief that it will be solved, only to see the various politicians find an opportunity to stand on a box and gather audience to themselves, while fire spread. And so it is with the USA, most of people assumed that they would agree a deal and raise the debt ceiling, but there is a group of people with other ideas. The USA is damaged goods already, and in case someone thought differently, now they had a last wake up call. It really has to make you wander what is going on.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:00 | 1496902 chump666
chump666's picture

AUD is knocking out 30yr highs.  incredible.  Something is seriously wrong, if the USD collapses chaos will reign in all markets. 

If Obama does the excuative order and forces the debt ciling, US will get downgraded by EVERYONE

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:04 | 1496907 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

It has to happen. Let's get 'er done.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:15 | 1496913 darkstar7646
darkstar7646's picture

The downgrade happens either way. I'd go at _least_ a full "A", with another "A" or more coming if August 2 passes with no debt deal.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:36 | 1496934 chump666
chump666's picture

yeah there will be a downgrade, just trying to figure the play.  stocks could go bid, USD tanks.  kinda like that. or stocks and USD tank, UST's tank and it all piles into gold. 

if bernake prints USD tanks, gold is bid, China sells to force US rates up...I dunno, just chaos. sideline trade  Gonna be historic.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:38 | 1496937 chump666
chump666's picture

oil bid, commoditoes sell on China inflation beatdown.  So Asian bouses should sell on default/downgrade.  If anyting sell against Asia...yeah i'll roll that.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:31 | 1496930 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

At some point during the coming suffering, do not the citizens of the USA simply demand that the President invade and gain control of Saudi Arabia to stem the pain and suffering, just off those princes or whatever they are, and get the oil for free? 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:18 | 1496973 madbomber
madbomber's picture

hi satan.   Are you speaking on behalf of someone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnPHBHPalH0&feature=related

according to you live in fear.     im not aware.   can you provide me transport?

saudi arabia?   americans are born in satan ?   is he in my blood?

what president?   are we all together in this?  x = x ?

mathemetician? the 'coming suffering'?   is that prophecy?    

surely ?

the citizens  'simply demand'?

 

'the' pain and suffering.   it's absolute?  is it 'apriori' ?   is it pre determined?  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnwKfrfQ2Ko&feature=related

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:22 | 1497007 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

The PC equivalent is already happening since DECADES.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:37 | 1496935 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

Someone I know suggested this today:

Rather than simply supply our military all over the globe for free, we offer a fee for services rendered.  Also and simultaneously, we go around the world searching and doing everything possible to start wars between two countries, offering our services to both.  IOW, we fight wars for both sides, but charge for the services, and whoever pays more, that side wins.  Got it?  I think it's brilliant.  It's what we do now, but instead of behind closed doors, it's all out in the open and services offerred/traded without the closed door deals.  Offer the bidding on eBay. 

For all the really blood thirsty flag waivers who still are brain dead enough to believe in democracy and all that other horsehit, these families must pay about $8k/6 mos for their child to join the miiltary.  After about 2 years then they can stop paying and the US pays the member a small amount.  I f'n know for absolutely sure (I've met such idiots) that some families love fighting and death so much they will jump on this.

 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:25 | 1496976 madbomber
madbomber's picture

blood thirsty flag waivers

brain dead

horsehit

child to join the military

fighting and death

 

yea?    satan?    you know?

 

 

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:13 | 1496999 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

US military intervention for free? Never!

It always costs lots and lots of lobbying money.

Or do you think there is any senator who knows the location of all US bases or why they were built?

Just lately we were discussing that many ZH readers don't know what the Seventh Fleet is or does since fifty years, including the seasonal Taiwan Straits maneuvers. Or how the Republic profits from it.

It reminds me the latest Star Wars flicks. Nobody knows exactly why the Chancellor needs extraordinary powers, the viewers would be just bored if you explain the rebel's grievances. Wake up, it's not a movie. Do show some interest to what you do as a nation in the world, you are being taxed for it.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:18 | 1497004 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

And our youth bleeds for it.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 06:42 | 1497071 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

What do you think's being done already?  How do you think the dollar has world reserve currency status?  That's the fee.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 01:52 | 1496949 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Team America, Fuck Yeah!

 

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:52 | 1496991 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

ok, it's time for randy paul to start the filibuster if he wants to show us his ass.

also, i'm trying to put together some kinda prop bet or line about amy winehouse, hoping she'll enjoy the disrespect.  my thinking is that given the deep doodoo of the murdoch press, what is the probability that she woulda had a case?  easy:  100%.  big one?  200%!!!  now she's dead, along with a witness, i think, in a week...

...and bullshit walks

so, will we get a murder connection or just con's-piracy stuff like i'm doing, here?  so far, 1 autopsy = zero cause d'morte.  waiting on the laboratory results.  hmmm. 

what are the odds that competent medical examiners can do an autopsy on a 27 y.o. and discover the cause of death to be unknown?  it just happened. 

moving right along.  this was not a suicide, therefore either self-accidental, other-accidental, or intentional, to some degree.  let's assume self-accidental, since anything is just a nightmare for "murdoch's" interests.

i'll take barbiturates.  you put up $2;  i'll put up $1;  barbiturates or bust for $3.  winner take all.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 02:56 | 1496995 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Rand Paul can't filibuster if there is a super committee in place.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 03:26 | 1497009 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

are you implying there is a super committee in place?

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 06:18 | 1497060 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

No, just that the media is airing the idea.
I ask why.
My current answer is: to bypass (de-fang) senate (filibuster) rules.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:15 | 1497150 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i don't know how familiar you are with the american constitutional system.  the senate governs itself.  it makes its own rules on debate, and cloture of same.  not you.  not me.  not anybody but the senators.

unless the vice-president is allowed to break a tie on a procedural vote, as president of the senate---his job, according to the constitution; i'm not sure of all the little rules. 

myself, i just advocate getting some kind of fiscal control, not at the expense of the people, except as a last resort, at this point.  or, shut it down. 

they wanna keep fuking around, pull the damned plug and see if that gets their damned attention!

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 06:21 | 1497063 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

You don't have to be a fucking genius pi rat to see that it is.  The only thing left is formalizing the process of Pelosi shaking her fakes at old men behind closed doors.  And lots of public conditioning.  It's not hard to shove a brick up the public ass after 150 years of reaming the livestock.

These hogs are going to slaughter themselves.  The QE sham gamble should have been a one shot deal.  Now its long term impact is in danger of melting down the core machinery.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Wed, 07/27/2011 - 08:05 | 1497146 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

there may be some confusion, here, about what is the possibility of a filibuster.  it happens in the senate only.  pelosi?  nope.  she ain't a senator

and, if they can get the floor, and start talking, here's the deal: U.S. Senate: Reference Home > Virtual Reference Desk > Cloture

The term filibuster, from a Dutch word meaning "pirate,"(sorry, couldn't resist)

so, i'm unsure about the term "super committee".  you, however, seem to know all about it, and then some! 

often, depending on the rules, a cloture vote  depends on what is called a "super majority" (more than 1/2) of 3/5 or 60% to limit debate (stop someone from talking).  not nancy pelosi's surgical ass-ettes. 

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