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Stephen Roach Mops Floor With Keynesianism And Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer
Following David Einhorn's take-down of the great and glorious Oz Larry Meyer eighteen months ago, the latter has been in training - readying his counterfactual counter-punches and controlling his ire. The king of Keynesianism just had his bell rung once again by a market realist and pragmatist as Stephen Roach destroyed the "if-we-don't-have-models-we-are-making-it-all-up" maestro and his constant diatribe of counterfactual crap. "Where's the beef, Larry?" Roach asked on CNBC this morning, which was followed up with a rabbit punch from Kiernan, "and what about Christina Romer's stimulus-employment model?" The visibly shaken (seriously watch the clip) Meyer falls back once again to a defensive pose - and while practically admitting that the Fed is impotent - as he pulls out the ultimate "but without our models we would not be able to tell you how much worse it would be without the Fed interventions". Roach takes this weak cross to the chin and comes over the top with a devastating "mark your models to market in light of what the economy has done over the four and a half years, the traction from monetary policy has been the major disappointment of this so-called post-crisis recovery." TKO.
"There is no science in what you say - that conventional or unconventional monetary policy will deliver real economic growth"
"we have an incredibly dysfunctional system"
When is Roach-Meyer II - 'We woulda been a contender'?
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I'm in a hotel room and tv only gets jerkoffs on CNBS. No Bloomberg.
Cramer, drink some more cock juice and fix the gravel in your annoying voice!
Wow, Larry Meyer is so angry he is visibly trembling.
Larry Meyer went all high squeaky as soon as he was challenged. Same as Blankfein. Pretty sure it it some sort of signalling device kleptocrats use.
Squeal like a pig
I see a guitar and a banjo.....not a good sign.
Fed guy arguing about "models"...the existence and use of "models" belies the managed economy, itself a model, and one that has failed.
If we have "scientific models," then we have credibility that we can manage the economy. Absent those, then we have free markets.
Larry Meyers: "Maybe we don't get it right. Maybe we have the wrong models. Maybe we kill a few million people. Maybe we give too much money to banksters and kleptocrats. At least we're doing economics."
You can tell Larry needs to go back to the shleter of his coddling colleagues in the ivory tower who can reassure him that everyone else are just a bunch of idiots who don't get it. Then, they must take over government so they can force their views on everyone. Wait. I guess that's already happened.
It's amazing with all the counterfactual talk, he certainly never considers the Broken Window Fallacy counterfactual.
its just amazing - the newspeak about models and counterfactuals - being 'intelligently' discussed.
a model is only necessary when statist hubris insists, that at best, a planned economy is really the form of government best suited to the human condition. have these assholes forgotten the moral degeneration of the 20th century wrought by the statists? 150 million innocent civilians killed for objecting to their 'government's' utopian nightmares?
i can just hear this asshole's response "but we can't do nothing!" - with the hidden subtext being, to protect and extend our power as the status quo. how long can these assholes pull strings from behind the curtains?
brings to mind one of my favorite quotes: "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." Claire Wolfe
was that larry myers or nathan thurm?
Can I write a blog about how stupid 130 IQ Jews are and not be racist? Seriously has anyone seen such an “intelligent” group that is so utterly clueless?
He is an elitist buffoon. You are too obsessed with the whole Jewish/Banking/Zionist Conspiracy thing. Meyer is an over-educated sliverspoon-licking gloablist idiot that happens to be of Jewish decent, he probably isn't even a man of real Hebrew faith. Maybe you are just a bigot? (along with many other ZH-ers)
“...out from the door of the farmhouse came a long file of pigs, all walking on their hind legs...out came Napoleon himself, majestically upright, casting haughty glances from side to side, and with his dogs gambolling round him.
He carried a whip in his trotter.
There was a deadly silence. Amazed, terrified, huddling together, the animals watched the long line of pigs march slowly round the yard. It was as though the world had turned upside-down. Then there came a moment when the first shock had worn off and when, in spite of everything-in spite of their terror of the dogs, and of the habit, developed through long years, of never complaining, never criticising, no matter what happened-they might have uttered some word of protest. But just at that moment, as though at a signal, all the sheep burst out into a tremendous bleating of-
"Four legs good, two legs better! Four legs good, two legs better! Four legs good, two legs better!"
It went on for five minutes without stopping. And by the time the sheep had quieted down, the chance to utter any protest had passed, for the pigs had marched back into the farmhouse.”
---
It's utterly transparent bullshit. If the observed data don't fit the model then we only need to adjust our model to accept the new data.
It is never once a consideration that perhaps the model is a piece of fuck that is completely wrong and irrelevant. We are supposed to bow to the model because it is complex and unknowable. It's a religion of it's own that these fucks use to confuse and placate the masses. Much like the bullshit that is the man-made global warmingists. Their models never predict anything but we are supposed to kowtow to their abiltiy to predict everything.
If we just end the fed, we don't need to worry whether the fed has models or not.
I believe that tortured squeaking tone is taught to yeshiva students for use during talmud debates.
The truth hurts.
Models that start from the beginning with incorrect data such as not marking to market cannot possibly be right
It's about time we demanded that this crap stop
There can only be one ledger.
There is one ledger for those that are not connected to the cartel and that ledger includes true accounting for assets and liabilities. The cartel has one journal that has no accounting of liabilities, as those liabilities get to be assets. What a wonderful FUCKING world!
I have noticed alot more tension on CNBS lately. Yesterday that British idiot host with the plastic face was all red faced about something too. Santelli was ripping Becky Quick the other morning. It hasn't been all nicey nicey lately, and I don't even watch it all that much. Turning into reality TV!!
I would have liked to have seen Santelli give Becky a lesson or two.
That little tart worships her own preconceptions.
I'd love to see Santelli give that smug little leftist fuck Carl Quintanilla a good ol' Chicago Italian once over.
"Wow, Larry Meyer is so angry he is visibly trembling."
That's what tends to happen when you challenge someone's "religion." The models they use to try to run the world are absolute garbage as this short video makes obvious:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIP7ES1lCGk
And even the ignorant mainstream media is beginning to wake up to what ZH readers have known for years:
Headline: Echoes of Japan? US economy may be in slow-growth mode for long time
http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/01/13054652-economy-may-be...
His hands were balled up into tight little fists. He looked ready to deliver a Woody Hayes left hook.
I think he'd realized what he'd just said: "The Fed can bungle rate policy and blow up giant bubbles, but when they collapse there isn't much the Fed can do about it."
In other words, the Fed can do terrible damage to the economy, but then it doesn't have the tools to repair that damage. So, tell me, Larry: What do we need the Fed for?
Didn't he look like Lewis Black for a moment?
Up arrow for your sir. Lewis Black, however, is funny and causes no harm to anyone. This FED prick has brought devastation to the savers throughout the world.
Is he related to Lewis Black, sure looks like it?
I do not understand why the average goy/sheep can not see that these people are men of satan, he looks like pure evil that unpleasant zionist-satanist.
And no, I am not a believer, but I do know that they believe in their all mighty satan.
You just go back to throwing feces with your fellow chimps.
Meyer- YOU USELESS PIECE OF SHIT! GFY !
Simplest explanation: Meyer's not used to being challenged in any significant way.
His reactions are akin to those of a religious zealot who's been asked to justify the existence of his chosen diety.
I'd expect he's surrounded by like-minded sycophants at all those oligarch cocktail parties to which he likes to be invited (and would prefer to continue to be invited.)
The fact that idiots like Meyer are the most powerful men in the world just demonstrates how insanely fucked we all are.
America is an independent nation that has been occupied by the Federal Reserve.
What's the deal with Keynesians all talking with voices like men that have had their nuts cut off.
Keynesianism is a very feminine ideology: women like to spend.
(No offensive girls).
I have to agree there. The idea that one can spend money and actually save based on the nominal price being lowered to a real price is outlandish indeed.
Shopper or FED: Look honey! I saved all of this money with all of this shit I just bought.
Saver or Realist: You didn't save money if you spent it bitch. Go get me a beer.
I think you are on to something.
I do too. This phenomena needs to be thoroughly investigated and perhaps even illustrated by WB7.
These Fed guys just dont' fucking get it. Complete shills for the Banks and Gov't.
Down goes Meyer! Down goes Meyer!
but we have models....
...and limos, and coke :O)
A CEO is interviewing three candidates for a CFO job, a mathematician, an accountant, and an economist.
The mathematician walks into the CEO's office, and is handed an excel spreadsheet. "What is the final total net profit for fiscal 2011"? asks the CEO to the mathematician. The mathematician gets out his trusty Thinkpad, and after 25 minutes, tells the CEO, "$10,986,567.54 net profit". "Thank you", says the CEO.
In comes the accountant. The CEO hands the same file to the accountant, who pulls out his Macintosh, and after 5 minutes says, "$10 million net net plus or minus 10%". Thank you says the CEO.
In comes the economist. The CEO hands him the file and asks, "What is the final total net profit for fiscal 2011"? The Economist bolts out of his chair, runs and locks the door jamming a carpet under the gap, goes to the window and closes all the blinds, unplugs the phone and computer, turns off the lights save for one dim lamp in the corner, leans into the CEO's ear and whispers..."What do you want it to be"?
That's one of my favorite jokes. The problem is it isn't actually funny. Of course I often find that I am laughing inappropriately.
The horror? The absurdity.
but but models... that was basically the whole argument. As if the market is predictable like a scientific experiment. That's what these guys never seem to get. It's not like an organism, is far less predictable. That's why central planning will never work.
It was pretty funny stuff. Meyer can't stand the possibility that people will stop paying attention to his models because they don't work. Then what's left? Take the Fed out of the predictions business, stop intervening in the economy, and return to sound central banking. (see Bagehot)Good god, we won't be masters of the universe anymore determining the worlds fate. How will the poor peons survive without us.
I am an engineer and an Economist. The problem with their "models" is essentially they are LINEAR---in the mathematical sense--and the real world is some combination nonlinear, discontinuous, fractal feedback loop thingy. As long as the economy stays on a glide path , they trumpet "See how great our models are", but as soon as something changes, and their models completely miss the call, then they look to "adjust" the models!!
They actually have given Ph.d"s for over fifty years based on this crap. Amazing.
Some are linear, but many like cobb douglas, and Black Scholes are not. The larger problem is many if not most assume equal normal risk distributions or least squares regressions, and thus woefully underestimate tail risk.
Do their models incorporate the megalo/klepto-mania factor?
That is generally left out due to what statisticians refer to as "confirmation bias".
Watch it on mute and go to 4:15... Larry Larry Larry. Sometimes we make mistakes, but sometimes we get called on lies....This is the reaction of the latter...
You have to love these Keynesian guys. If reality flies in the face of their policies, they either say it's because they didn't do enough (Krugman) or they say it would have been worse without what they did (Meyer).
I wish I could be like them and never be wrong. They are like my wife.
Body language says a lot here.
Meyer- "We may have got the forecast wrong, but we are doing it right"
Absolute fucktard
Roach: You've gotta get out of your models. Go out ito the real world.
Meyer: Absolutely not.
That Meyer guy is ridiculous. Someone should tell him rapido how stupid he is.
Nice to see a guy who is on his game ;o)
Love Meyer literally SHAKING IN HIS BOOTS.
Meyer goes onto say that Roach is wrong because he doesn't know what would've happened to the economy without monetary and fiscal stimulus...Yet goes onto say that even the Fed has no idea what would've happened without fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Further, he ADMITS that the Fed made "very bad forecasts." So if the Fed is continually WRONG with its forecasts...Why the fuck do we need the Fed and why the fuck are they the only ones making major decisions in monetary policy?
Larry looks like he's about to explode.
"there is very little the fed can do"
How can I clown like meyer even exist??/
When I saw this, I couldn't help but think of this story:
During World War II, [Nobel laureate, Ken] Arrow was assigned to a team of statisticians to produce long-range weather forecasts. After a time, Arrow and his team determined that their forecasts were not much better than pulling predictions out of a hat. They wrote their superiors, asking to be relieved of the duty. They received the following reply, and I quote "The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes."
– David Stockton, FOMC Minutes Sep 2005
Who will buy his services if his "models" are worthless......lol
They are...he really is so far up into the ivory tower..he needs to just go to a WalMart somewhere to get a better feel of the economy...a little street study...hit the pavement is better economics..
Meyer: "What do you know."
Hah!
Why doesn't any one of these fuckers grow a pair and say what they really want to say:
"You productive slaves stop asking questions. We bankers are in control and that's how it's going to be so get use to it."
He is talking out both sides of his mouth. You have to have a model until the model doesn't work then you have to change the model which will be right until it's wrong.....what a clown.
"Stephen Roach Mops Floor With Keynesianism.."
that's the very best these cretins of economics are good for
Meyer wasn't trembling -- he was vibrating.
Game Over.
Hilarious! I thought it was crappy video download when I first noticed it. Then they showed the split screen w Joe/Stephen, LMFAO.
I thought the viens in his temples were a nice touch, they added to the drama!
The Fed's goal is to protect the banking cartel's interest FIRST and FOREMOST! That is all you need to know. The American people are at the bottom of the list.
Absolutely agree. keep us all arguing about things that take our eyes off of the big banks. More glitter please.
It is beginning to feel like the American people are somewhere below the botton of the list.
+++ Bingo.
Speaking of slug fests, anyone out there watching the 12 round tag team bout between Italians and the Germans coming across the news services.
Lucky they ain't in the same room. :)
I am learning alot here. Meyers is a great teacher, bet he's in the union. Democratic union.
And yet Roach was all for Chinese stimulus. What ever is he thinking? Chinese stimulus good American stimulus bad.
Larry Meyer has now succeded in justifying every wedgy I ever handed out. Clearly, not enough were handed out. This guy could have benefited from some more time spent locked up in his gym locker to reflect on why it is people don't want him involved with their lives.
I see an Ex Fedder scared to death that they might be audited...and found guilty...and lose their power and their job.....he made very little sense....but he was definatly defending the Fed....how they were trying..how they made mistakes...etc......he sees the end of his little kingdom ....and it scares him to death
That was the main thing I got out of it too.
"No matter how wrong it is going, we are doing it right". That will score high points with the overlords.
and it scares him to death
It should scare them to death. Once people figure out what a scam they are running, the guillotine will not be too good for them.
sschu
These guys commute, everyday, from Tel-Aviv? It sounds like it!
There is a way to see what policy does WITHOUT MODELS ! You can examine the results of ones handiwork by looking BACK AT THE RESULTS OF POLICY !!!!!
Their models are so bad and have very little credibility that they needed to repalce the word "models" with counterfactual. The ultimate mea culpa.
CORRECTION: Roach mops floor with Meyers. He does NOT mop floor with Keynes.
Don't confuse the messenger with the message.
Keynes is working a helluva lot better these days than Friedmanitis, which has devastated every country it's been implemented in - a sure recipe for economic collapse.
Keynes is the only economist who was a champion money manager in his own right. Do your DD and learn something.
There is nothing "butch" about the Laffer Curve. It's just bullshit from one end to the other, providing cover for selfish bastards who don't mind watching other people die.
BTW, Joe Kiernan doesn't know shit about shit. Having him in your corner earns you exactly nothing.
Yep, Keynes is doing a great job at exploding debt.
finally sanity...nothing about our government private banking merger over the last 12 years can be correctly attributed to Keynesian economic theory in a free market however that sick fuck Milton Friedman who received a medal of freedom from Bush has his stink permeating this disaster.
Were Keynes here I am sure he would say that miss applying his life's work to an advanced economy with a Somalian regulatory regime is a waste of time.
Fuck CNBC and the Roach they rode in on!
Indeed, the uneducated here has just turned Keynes into the quintessential bogeyman, even though they have no idea as to anything about him, i.e., an incredibly astute investor. Intead, in this church of the uneducated, he has merely be turned into a symbol of every bad. Very silly folks, who, in the end, do harm to their own wealth (if they even have any).
Having said that, I add that I am completely against new huge doses of fiscal stimulus because the debt is too high, and I have no clue whether the money would just fall into the pockets of the favored constituencies instead of actually building anything. But, that does not mean that peopel should misunderstand or, worse, distort the arguments.
6 weeks and a day and everyone is dumber than u. you should get a job at the fed.
Indeed, the uneducated here has just turned Keynes into the quintessential bogeyman, even though they have no idea as to anything about him, i.e., an incredibly astute investor. Intead, in this church of the uneducated, he has merely be turned into a symbol of every bad. Very silly folks, who, in the end, do harm to their own wealth (if they even have any).
Having said that, I add that I am completely against new huge doses of fiscal stimulus because the debt is too high, and I have no clue whether the money would just fall into the pockets of the favored constituencies instead of actually building anything. But, that does not mean that peopel should misunderstand or, worse, distort the arguments.
I wish more people could see this to appreciate how clueless - but determined - the Fed is about their policies. So no matter how bad things get, Meyer can say, "Boy, you should see what would have happened if we didn't do what we did." So that's the guidance our monetary "leaders" are giving us to get out of this shit soup. Scary.
I recall his previous appearance and thought then that he has no grasp of the real world. My thoughts haven't changed.
DavidC
Hey Larry, how about you go fuck yourself?
Larry is about to go into troll meltdown ! He is quaking and trembling as he is faced with the onslaught of facts and historical perspective ! Hahahhaahahaaaa !!! Fucking little troll !
So as long as you have a model as an economist you must be right. Is that pretty much the gist of it?
Larry Meyer is like a rat that's cornered. God help us if he's an example of the Federal Reserve and it's policy. He reminds one of William Dudley and his I-PAD comment. It goes to show you how out-of-touch these ivory-tower academics are.
William Dudley: "Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful," he said."You have to look at the prices of all things."
Larry looked like he was going to blow a gasket any second.
Meyer made a fool of himself, he acknowledges his models are guesses based on ideology.
I get goosebumps of glee when I see things like this!
Lookout on the Titanic: "Captain, I believe there is an IceBerg dead ahead."
Titanic Captain to 1st Mate: "What do the models say?
First Mate: "Not possible in this area, Captain?"
Captain to Lookout: "No IceBerg's in the area, carry on."
Lookout: "I see the Iceberg now, prepare for impact in 10 seconds Captain".
Captain: "Lookout, You have my orders, dead ahead, full speed".
Titanic Hits the Iceberg and begins listing within 7 minutes
Captain: "The models say that we are not sinking, everyone relax and cork more bubbly".
15 minutes later she sinks under the waves, taking all to their death.
Same rules apply to Bernake. He is the Captain in this story. It is his duty to go down with the Ship. You know, the "noble thing".
Meyer is just a stooge creating diversion noise. If I am wrong, and he is the brightest of the bunch, it just confirms the Titanic is going down. Not a party, either way.
Find a life boat.
Actually, had they stuck to their models and hit the iceberg head-on, likely only 1 or 2 compartments would have been breached and the ship would have stayed afloat, saving practically everyone. This proves that the economic models are more intelligent than the very people that come up with them, and that if we just stop questioning people with PhDs, everything will work out in the end.
Seems like you missed the minor bit about the Captain's model insisting that there was NO iceberg. Nothing in his model about hitting it head-on.
That said, I'm still hoping against hope that your post was missing a "</s>".
The FED should say nothing, do nothing and wait for things to heal. Of course yesterdays horseshit with the ES futures at the close does NOT help.
My model say things are very wrong
My model says buy gold. Oh... bitchez.
we think there is ONLY ONE thing on the table today ..... do nothing OR extend the guidance
THIS GUY CAN NOT EVEN COUNT TO 2 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By continually "fixing" the economy, the Fed tells us things aren't fixed.
The Fed models seem to ignore psychological factors.
The video you are trying to access is unfortunately unavailable at the moment.
-----------
fail cnbc...
Praxeology dumbass!! Massive malinvestment due to interventionist policies. Sheesh, it's not that hard.
My Model says my FacePlant and Zynga investments will make me rich! RFLMAO!
Please make Larry a regular. This was the most entertaining thing I've seen in a while.
I WOULD HAVE ASKED,SO YOURMODELS SAID AFTER 4YEARS OF STIMS, WE WOULD BE THIS FUCKED UP?
Roach @ 11:25: "What's the counterfactual of impotent?"
Larry Meyer and Bennie B think they can play god with their "models" and "counterfactuals" They hand out free money and ruin people's lives based upon their faulty logic and foolish predictions.
They are Biblical snake oil salesman of the worst kind. And they know it, but are so wedded to their models and counterfactuals that they refuse to see the world as it really stands.
Their ideas and work are evil of the highest order, it is satanic in nature.
sschu
I had a dejavu......I knew I had seen something like this before!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGS2tKQhdhY
"I have people skills...god dammit!"
OMG, what a clown.......Larry Meyer is a live model of negative IQ.....please, someone get stop these douche bags from controlling the money supply...let alone anything else.
Intellectually on a par with the creationists.. pure blind faith and an ability to ignore colossal evidence to the contrary.....
Does anyone on this board understand economics at all?
I like Roach, but you guys are turning Meyer into a straw man. If you don't understand what he is saying, don't pretend that you do.
Aggressively stupidity is just stupidity^2.
And, Kiernan does not know his ass from a hole in the ground.
"Does anyone on this board understand economics at all?"
Economics?
How about these:
"Does anyone on this board understand _________?"
My model, which actually involves getting in my fucking 12 year old car and buying $3.70 a gallon gasoline, includes going to the grocery store where most items have had 12-15% inflation over the past 2 years. I get some shrunken packaging items and stand in line behind 90% EBT card users to pay in cash for my items. I then stop at the local credit union to draw out some additional cash for mattress stuffing, foregoing that valuable .25 % interest. I then proceed towards my 40% devalued property and stop by JP Morgan Chase and piss on the side of their building. Finally home I turn on my computer and read about the economic recovery in place as I watch homeless people sleeping in the park. Must be outdoorsmen. I used to hang a flag on my porch but I can't find one that's not made in China anymore.
Everything is fine
Sugar is now being sold in 4 pound bags instead of 5 for the same price. Do they think they're fooling anyone? 20%!
I wonder if Larry Meyer has a model to determine if his Wife has had an orgasm or not?
She doesn't, he and his kind have been fucking us for years without ever giving us satisfaction.
Squeal piggy, squeal.
When did people start using "So" to begin an evasive answer. It is so irritating.
So, like, you know, the models don't really show that, but if they did we could adjust the models to not show it. You know what I mean? Whatever.
My God!!! Was this guy the Fed Governor for real ?????
More hyped headlines promising "floor mopping" and "destruction" but delivering nothing of the sort.
Seems Larry Meyer and Paul Krugman share more than just their dogmatically simple-minded viewpoints on economic theory leading real economic activity in practice...
They both have most meely-mouthed, weaselly, runny nose whiny-assed voices I've ever heard... It's like listening to fucking Erkel trying to preach to world about how awesome he is.
"Yes, we experiment with the US economy all the time. You all are DEBT MULES (tm) and we like to see how much it takes to break your backs..."
Isn't this what he was defending?
My model involves slitting open a chicken and examining the entrails.
This is for entertainment purposes and should not be construed as investment advice.
The One Model that they have in their pursuit of the One Ring: Print Counterfeit Money
Roach still bullish on China ???
So Coca Cola are worried about the possibility of sales growth diminishing and they charge the head of Marketing with coming up with a strategy to achieve 5% sales growth over the next two years. He does it, with investment costs, expected outcomes and the consequent return on the investment. The new policiy is approved.
But what happens is that sales don´t go up ... you can bet he is getting his ears chewed off within months by the CEO who is watching "what is actually happening in the real world".
After a year of stagnant sales, he is eventually hauled in ..... "imagine how much sales would have gone down if it weren´t for my brilliant campaign" is his defence .....
.... do we think he would keep his job?
The link says video has been removed, and I cannot find it anywhere.
Can anyone share the link that still works? Would love to see this.
Thank you.