Stephen Roach Mops Floor With Keynesianism And Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer

Tyler Durden's picture

Following David Einhorn's take-down of the great and glorious Oz Larry Meyer eighteen months ago, the latter has been in training - readying his counterfactual counter-punches and controlling his ire. The king of Keynesianism just had his bell rung once again by a market realist and pragmatist as Stephen Roach destroyed the "if-we-don't-have-models-we-are-making-it-all-up" maestro and his constant diatribe of counterfactual crap. "Where's the beef, Larry?" Roach asked on CNBC this morning, which was followed up with a rabbit punch from Kiernan, "and what about Christina Romer's stimulus-employment model?" The visibly shaken (seriously watch the clip) Meyer falls back once again to a defensive pose - and while practically admitting that the Fed is impotent - as he pulls out the ultimate "but without our models we would not be able to tell you how much worse it would be without the Fed interventions". Roach takes this weak cross to the chin and comes over the top with a devastating "mark your models to market in light of what the economy has done over the four and a half years, the traction from monetary policy has been the major disappointment of this so-called post-crisis recovery." TKO.

"There is no science in what you say - that conventional or unconventional monetary policy will deliver real economic growth"

"we have an incredibly dysfunctional system"

 

When is Roach-Meyer II - 'We woulda been a contender'?

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ZippyBananaPants's picture

I'm in a hotel room and tv only gets jerkoffs on CNBS. No Bloomberg.

Cramer, drink some more cock juice and fix the gravel in your annoying voice!

flacon's picture

Wow, Larry Meyer is so angry he is visibly trembling. 

lizzy36's picture

Larry Meyer went all high squeaky as soon as he was challenged. Same as Blankfein. Pretty sure it it some sort of signalling device kleptocrats use.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I see a guitar and a banjo.....not a good sign.

 

SWRichmond's picture

Fed guy arguing about "models"...the existence and use of "models" belies the managed economy, itself a model, and one that has failed.

If we have "scientific models," then we have credibility that we can manage the economy.  Absent those, then we have free markets.

Temporalist's picture

Larry Meyers: "Maybe we don't get it right.  Maybe we have the wrong models.  Maybe we kill a few million people.  Maybe we give too much money to banksters and kleptocrats.  At least we're doing economics."

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

You can tell Larry needs to go back to the shleter of his coddling colleagues in the ivory tower who can reassure him that everyone else are just a bunch of idiots who don't get it.    Then, they must take over government so they can force their views on everyone.  Wait.  I guess that's already happened.

It's amazing with all the counterfactual talk, he certainly never considers the Broken Window Fallacy counterfactual.

forexskin's picture

its just amazing - the newspeak about models and counterfactuals - being 'intelligently' discussed.

a model is only necessary when statist hubris insists, that at best, a planned economy is really the form of government best suited to the human condition. have these assholes forgotten the moral degeneration of the 20th century wrought by the statists? 150 million innocent civilians killed for objecting to their 'government's' utopian nightmares?

i can just hear this asshole's response "but we can't do nothing!" - with the hidden subtext being, to protect and extend our power as the status quo. how long can these assholes pull strings from behind the curtains?

brings to mind one of my favorite quotes: "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." Claire Wolfe

smlbizman's picture

was that larry myers or nathan thurm?

economics9698's picture

Can I write a blog about how stupid 130 IQ Jews are and not be racist?  Seriously has anyone seen such an “intelligent” group that is so utterly clueless?

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

He is an elitist buffoon. You are too obsessed with the whole Jewish/Banking/Zionist Conspiracy thing. Meyer is an over-educated sliverspoon-licking gloablist idiot that happens to be of Jewish decent, he probably isn't even a man of real Hebrew faith. Maybe you are just a bigot? (along with many other ZH-ers)

Killtruck's picture

“...out from the door of the farmhouse came a long file of pigs, all walking on their hind legs...out came Napoleon himself, majestically upright, casting haughty glances from side to side, and with his dogs gambolling round him.

He carried a whip in his trotter.

There was a deadly silence. Amazed, terrified, huddling together, the animals watched the long line of pigs march slowly round the yard. It was as though the world had turned upside-down. Then there came a moment when the first shock had worn off and when, in spite of everything-in spite of their terror of the dogs, and of the habit, developed through long years, of never complaining, never criticising, no matter what happened-they might have uttered some word of protest. But just at that moment, as though at a signal, all the sheep burst out into a tremendous bleating of-

"Four legs good, two legs better! Four legs good, two legs better! Four legs good, two legs better!"

It went on for five minutes without stopping. And by the time the sheep had quieted down, the chance to utter any protest had passed, for the pigs had marched back into the farmhouse.”

ATM's picture

It's utterly transparent bullshit. If the observed data don't fit the model then we only need to adjust our model to accept the new data.

It is never once a consideration that perhaps the model is a piece of fuck that is completely wrong and irrelevant. We are supposed to bow to the model because it is complex and unknowable. It's a religion of it's own that these fucks use to confuse and placate the masses. Much like the bullshit that is the man-made global warmingists. Their models never predict anything but we are supposed to kowtow to their abiltiy to predict everything. 

XitSam's picture

If we just end the fed, we don't need to worry whether the fed has models or not.

Kinskian's picture

I believe that tortured squeaking tone is taught to yeshiva students for use during talmud debates. 

ArkansasAngie's picture

The truth hurts.

Models that start from the beginning with incorrect data such as not marking to market cannot possibly be right

It's about time we demanded that this crap stop

There can only be one ledger.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

There is one ledger for those that are not connected to the cartel and that ledger includes true accounting for assets and liabilities.  The cartel has one journal that has no accounting of liabilities, as those liabilities get to be assets.  What a wonderful FUCKING world!

Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I have noticed alot more tension on CNBS lately.  Yesterday that British idiot host with the plastic face was all red faced about something too.  Santelli was ripping Becky Quick the other morning.  It hasn't been all nicey nicey lately, and I don't even watch it all that much.  Turning into reality TV!!

ebworthen's picture

I would have liked to have seen Santelli give Becky a lesson or two.

That little tart worships her own preconceptions.

ATM's picture

I'd love to see Santelli give that smug little leftist fuck Carl Quintanilla a good ol' Chicago Italian once over.

Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Wow, Larry Meyer is so angry he is visibly trembling."

That's what tends to happen when you challenge someone's "religion."  The models they use to try to run the world are absolute garbage as this short video makes obvious:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIP7ES1lCGk

And even the ignorant mainstream media is beginning to wake up to what ZH readers have known for years:

Headline: Echoes of Japan? US economy may be in slow-growth mode for long time

http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/01/13054652-economy-may-be...

DeadFinks's picture

His hands were balled up into tight little fists. He looked ready to deliver a Woody Hayes left hook.

Imminent Crucible's picture

I think he'd realized what he'd just said: "The Fed can bungle rate policy and blow up giant bubbles, but when they collapse there isn't much the Fed can do about it."

In other words, the Fed can do terrible damage to the economy, but then it doesn't have the tools to repair that damage. So, tell me, Larry: What do we need the Fed for?

Town Crier's picture

Didn't he look like Lewis Black for a moment?

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Up arrow for your sir.  Lewis Black, however, is funny and causes no harm to anyone.  This FED prick has brought devastation to the savers throughout the world.

FEDbuster's picture

Is he related to Lewis Black, sure looks like it?

YuropeanImbecille's picture

I do not understand why the average goy/sheep can not see that these people are men of satan, he looks like pure evil that unpleasant zionist-satanist.

 

And no, I am not a believer, but I do know that they believe in their all mighty satan.

madridisburning's picture

You just go back to throwing feces with your fellow chimps.

banksterhater's picture

Meyer- YOU USELESS PIECE OF SHIT! GFY !

Indrid Cold's picture

Simplest explanation: Meyer's not used to being challenged in any significant way.

His reactions are akin to those of a religious zealot who's been asked to justify the existence of his chosen diety.

I'd expect he's surrounded by like-minded sycophants at all those oligarch cocktail parties to which he likes to be invited (and would prefer to continue to be invited.)

SeverinSlade's picture

The fact that idiots like Meyer are the most powerful men in the world just demonstrates how insanely fucked we all are.

Debtonation's picture

America is an independent nation that has been occupied by the Federal Reserve.

q99x2's picture

What's the deal with Keynesians all talking with voices like men that have had their nuts cut off.

TWSceptic's picture

Keynesianism is a very feminine ideology: women like to spend.

 

(No offensive girls).

Dr. Richard Head's picture

I have to agree there.  The idea that one can spend money and actually save based on the nominal price being lowered to a real price is outlandish indeed.

Shopper or FED: Look honey!  I saved all of this money with all of this shit I just bought.

Saver or Realist:  You didn't save money if you spent it bitch.  Go get me a beer.

Vince Clortho's picture

I think you are on to something.

FEDbuster's picture

I do too.  This phenomena needs to be thoroughly investigated and perhaps even illustrated by WB7.

RacerX's picture

These Fed guys just dont' fucking get it. Complete shills for the Banks and Gov't.

Vincent Vega's picture

Down goes Meyer! Down goes Meyer!

piliage's picture

A CEO is interviewing three candidates for a CFO job, a mathematician, an accountant, and an economist.

The mathematician walks into the CEO's office, and is handed an excel spreadsheet. "What is the final total net profit for fiscal 2011"? asks the CEO to the mathematician. The mathematician gets out his trusty Thinkpad, and after 25 minutes, tells the CEO, "$10,986,567.54 net profit". "Thank you", says the CEO.

In comes the accountant. The CEO hands the same file to the accountant, who pulls out his Macintosh, and after 5 minutes says, "$10 million net net plus or minus 10%". Thank you says the CEO.

In comes the economist. The CEO hands him the file and asks, "What is the final total net profit for fiscal 2011"? The Economist bolts out of his chair, runs and locks the door jamming a carpet under the gap, goes to the window and closes all the blinds, unplugs the phone and computer, turns off the lights save for one dim lamp in the corner, leans into the CEO's ear and whispers..."What do you want it to be"?

 

 

ArkansasAngie's picture

That's one of my favorite jokes.  The problem is it isn't actually funny.  Of course I often find that I am laughing inappropriately. 

The horror?  The absurdity.

TWSceptic's picture

but but models... that was basically the whole argument. As if the market is predictable like a scientific experiment. That's what these guys never seem to get. It's not like an organism, is far less predictable. That's why central planning will never work.

FMR Bankster's picture

It was pretty funny stuff. Meyer can't stand the possibility that people will stop paying attention to his models because they don't work. Then what's left? Take the Fed out of the predictions business, stop intervening in the economy, and return to sound central banking. (see Bagehot)Good god, we won't be masters of the universe anymore determining the worlds fate. How will the poor peons survive without us.

DUNTHAT's picture

I am an engineer and an Economist.  The problem with their "models" is essentially they are LINEAR---in the mathematical sense--and the real world is some combination nonlinear, discontinuous, fractal feedback loop thingy.  As long as the economy stays on a glide path , they trumpet "See how great our models are", but as soon as something changes, and their models completely miss the call, then they look to "adjust" the models!!

They actually have given Ph.d"s for over fifty years based on this crap.  Amazing.

piliage's picture

Some are linear, but many like cobb douglas, and Black Scholes are not. The larger problem is many if not most assume equal normal risk distributions or least squares regressions, and thus woefully underestimate tail risk.

Vince Clortho's picture

Do their models incorporate the megalo/klepto-mania factor?