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Stock Reality Snaps Back As Hope-Based Decompression Ends
Last night we discussed the repeated regime that has occurred in equity markets over the last few days where we ramp in ES away from any other asset class (FX, credit, TSY, commodity). This morning's abrupt diminution of hope has once again caused ES to revert back to its CONTEXTual reality - trading more in line with broad risk assets for now. It appears that again and again we are seeing the buy-the-dips beta-chasing that Art Cashin so eloquently pointed out this morning - and that is not working as the overwhelming macro/systemic conditions favor risk-off.
While ES has sometimes been the driver of broad risk assets, for now it appears broad risk (CONTEXT) is the sane older brother that keeps bringing ES back to reality and for now we need to see further deterioration before ES will pull back lower from its current position - hovering almost perfectly at VWAP.
With volume almost 30% above average it seems markets are anxious once again and in a rush.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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I would recommend you panic, bitchez.
Market!!!
I tired of panicking years ago. I went all in Beans, Bullets, and Bullion. Now I sit on the sidelines calmly watching the heard panic and stampede from one side of the butchers corral to the other.
Exactly! Im sitting up in the bleecher sits with my shit proof poncho on, watching people swept up in the tidal wave of the Shitnami...theyre all getting swept away by the undershit of that wave, longs, shorts, all of em.
Cash is king (of trash) right now.
The gold you all convinced me to buy is doing ok.
However I feel like such a fool owning cash and gold right now.
Hehe....at least it is paper GLD!
just you wait...oh wait, nevermind....well ok, now were talking, up she comes....oh shit, nevermind..... well F*^K, that's it, I'm goin home ! If I had any hair left to tear out ...
The reek of blood puts a smile on my face.
Just wait for all the bullshit rumors they will use to keep this ponzi scheme floating. Pick your favorite:
In the end, they will float some bullshit rumor to keep the ponzi scheme going. Meanwhile the world is blind to the fact that Oil is again pushing $100. US economy's only reason for staying afloat in the last two months was a decline in Oil prices - now that is gone. Watch US numbers decline going forward. It is real simple - Oil above $90 and the economy contracts, below $90 it expands.
"Meanwhile the world is blind to the fact that Oil is again pushing $100. US economy's only reason for staying afloat in the last two months was a decline in Oil prices - now that is gone. Watch US numbers decline going forward. It is real simple - Oil above $90 and the economy contracts, below $90 it expands. "
we have a winner. This is precisely how evryone should be front running. Intervention be damned. Diesel fuel has been a bitch for us lately.
I still have some hopium drug left, I sell them double price.
almost ready for the afternoon push to +100
Look again WS, someone let the rally monkey out of his cage a little early today.
It's the Joe Pap rally
(Paterno resigns...G-Pap resigns...markets rally!)
'With volume almost 40% above average it seems markets are anxious once again and in a rush.'
Teetering on a major cliff if you ask me.
'Seems markets are anxious and in a rush'....what? I dont get it.
If anything, 'markets' are now just trying to avoid the low flying Shit Hawks.
The shithawks are coming, Bubbles! - YouTube
Once again, "Profits" are not "profits" until you actually take them.
Profits are completely dependent on what you denominate your trades in.
Well, if you are only trading American equites, then that would be dollars. What's your fucking point? I also run a real business that has to pay for real things that go into real products that people actually take delivery of. Financial "products" are pure bullshit mechanisms to extract more wealth to give to fucknuts that add little value to the real economy.
I took profits in order to go to more cash (both EURO and dollar denominated) so I can invest in purchases that cover my margins into the future. Shifted some of the portfolio to more of the companies I buy from that pay dividends.
Again, what kind of stupid "no shit" statement was that?
I really don't give a shit who plays fucking paper, because at the end of the day when all those paper-pushing fucknuts have made all paper worthless you can be damn sure that my employees and I will be all too happy to remind everyone precisely what the value of our labor is. You will simply have to give us more and more paper or PMs to survive (we are an agriculture company and last I checked all you fuckers still need to eat).
A complete crash is just fine with us, at least then we can find out precisely what the value of everyone's labor is.
>>>(we are an agriculture company and last I checked all you fuckers still need to eat)<<<
Headed by someone who can't figure out how the nitrogen cycle works in this simple system
www.growingpower.org
And some of us "fuckers" can feed ourselves just fine without your help.
"And some of us "fuckers" can feed ourselves just fine without your help"
Now let's see 7 billion people do it without the help of the Habor Bosch process. Moreover, did I even say that ALL people can't feed themselves? Where did you see that fucknut? What, I didn't? I feed my family from entirely what we grow and raise. You really are an idiot, and your response is right on par with every other liberal idiot who doesn't have the mental capability to do the math.
Shut down power to southern California for a couple weeks and let all the food spoil and then let's see if those 20+ million fuckers can survive by going out into the woods and picking berries. You really need to try harder, your factless trolling is weak.
"Headed by someone who can't figure out how the nitrogen cycle works in this simple system"
That must be why my company has an STTR grant from NSF on nitrogen fixation, because we don't understand it. You really are a idiot aren't you? Guess what, there really are people who dedicate their lives to understanding things like the nitrogen cycle. Don't get mad simply because the data doesn't agree with your hopium buzz. I won't discourage you from encouragng people to grow their own food, they buy fertilizer, and that will only help our bottom line, so thanks for that.
It seems that finally this October 30th DJIA prediction chart has sprung into action-and about the time it should have.
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
Happy ride down the slope...
Dude... forget 2018. What happens tomorrow?
Inflation cannon loading now...
“If we do not act, and act together, we could enter a downward spiral of uncertainty, financial instability, and a collapse in global demand,” Lagarde said in her prepared text. “Ultimately, we could face a lost decade of low growth and high unemployment.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-09/lagarde-sees-lost-decade-for-world-economy-unless-nations-act-together.html
Channeling her inner Hank Paulson.
Still hoping for infinite growth in a world with finite resources are we? Good luck with that. Sounds to me like she is threatening the world. Fuck these financial terrorists.
Dom Chu, Bloomberg, is such an asshole.
http://www.thetrader.se/2011/11/09/mf-global-assets-have-left-the-building-how-when-where/
Already getting midday rumor pumps. So how long will it take Madman Bernanke to buy up $2 trillion of Italian debt? BTFD for when that happens.
He may have to save his bungo bucks to bail out GS if Europe implodes.
Yea but how long is the half-life of that now? 1 hour, or a day at most?
Very few are still amused and no one is fooled, and everything is a 'sell the news' now anyway.
I agree - the headline-churning cycle is shortening... Less of a bang on the upside and a faster roll-over each time.... Watch the Italian debt interventions - each time a weaker market response and a faster return to the macro trend.
This has been like chinese drip torture for a bear, but the time of the bull seems to be running short... Greece was a freckel on the ass of Italy - no solutions for Italy - FAR too much debt, game over...
You will like my new little project www.hopeon.com, I sell hope at a discount. I hope a 20 billion$ IPO soon. At least my hope is very good quality.
*the domain you visited is no longer configured with Web service.*
De-listed... Huge run on hope.
What I didn't tell you that I convert everything I had to "hope".
Not me... I've been diversifying into "cope" on the dips.
Blue HFT loves 1240 support. Erstens kaufen, dann vielleicht fragen "warum?".
Looks like they cleared out all of the Shorts with Margin Calls. They held the Market up for over 6 days from the end of October Greece is fixed rally. That was to make sure anyone they caught Short and got a Margin call had to cover at the ramped up prices. While they sold and Shorted.
Looks like Shit and Fan have a meeting scheduled :/
But everyone is safe! Hildenbrand will ensure zee price stabeeeleeeteeeee ><
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLYfsN1Uc_E&feature=player_embedded
I need to trade this comment. Every time I read something like this here the market jumps. A bear would be well advised to STFU and just wait for the probable outcome.
deleted
Looks like the robots are trying to churn the marke up. I wonder what the 3:00 rumor will be.
Shitmas rally? Merry Shitmas from Mr. Lahey - YouTube
Please, allow me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIMWudFLsaY
Once the EU exchanges close down at 12, we will see another rumor, and ES will blast above CONTEXT at light speed.
Just another rinse & repeat day ...
It's the greatest gig in the world ... if you can get it!
And no ones playing anymore. Who is left to 'buy the dip'? Record unemployed and bankrupt americans, stepping right up to the Lucy-held football again? Game over, there is no 'new money' only their fake money in spin cycle.
Ahhhh ... but there IS "new money" ... it's just the same money that got stopped out before.
It has to go to work so it starts chasing new returns based in the hope of an "afternoon rally" or a "Christmas rally" or a "New Years rally" or a "blah-blah-blah rally" that is in the headlines!
The half-life of the memory of the average invested dollars loss is about a day, IMO.
Churn 'em and burn 'em ... that's the game of rinse & repeat!
Market not crashing due to ECB QE hopes. Betting that ECB will deviate from "legal" mandate and BTFD in BTU's. Now if headline comes out that ECB will not outright monetize coupled with more political drama things will get scary.
The ECB will not outright monetize.
Betting on ECB to even sterilize more piigs bonds is a bad bet right now.
Irish debt looks compelling at nine plus percent.
No one takes to the yoke and whip like the Irish. I expect a nice rally once the world realizes the depth of Irish masochism.
Most likely the S&P is in a new, higher trading zone, with the low being about 1200, upper being 1350. Firm bid present, maybe money leaving Euro area.
Can anyone explain why the Italian bourse has gained back almost 2 points in the past hour?
Yeah, I hope you all zerohead junkies load up on shorts, so
we can squeeze your dumb asses in couple of days. :)))
Don't fight the FED and ECB.
You really dont get it at all. There are no 'SHORTS' out there piling in for 'you' to squeeze knucklehead.
This guy really thinks this is all about the FED and ECB trying to steal a few shorts nickels and dimes? Hillarious...move along troll.
I definitely wont fight the ecb, but they havent even entered the ring just yet, and the EFSF is just a mirage so far.
hey, toy-boy!
while you're bending over to pick up pennies in front of the steam roller
the chiarsatan is stuffing debt footballs up yer styoooopid ass, you shitforbrained moronic asswipe
Sure, how are equities doing again priced in gold versus say PMs again? Hey look, you missed another pennie, better pick it up.
Take a look at DAX vs Bund (10yr). When Bund was trading at todays levels earlier this autumn, Dax was abt 600-700 points LOWER than today. Mind the gap!
Okay, I'll bite. Where do you put the support at on this dip? If when go green into close, I am buying more PM's despite the current spot price. this is fucking stupid. least I'll sleep better.
this drop is hardly reality. a good ol fashioned 1000 point drop would be indicative of something real....
I agree, just some more re-shuffling, we'll go green into the super committee meetings at least.
Totally agree! These 1-2% swings are just trading noise now, strangely enough.
SP in the sub 1,000 range, DOW in the sub 10,000 range is more of a "wake up call". Hmmm, now that I see those numbers, oddly enough, seems to be a nicely based 1:10 relationship, isn't that like a metric system kind of thing :~)
Anyway, those numbers are where the weak hands get out in droves ... IMO, FWIW.
"Profits" are not "profits" until it hits your hand was a real big poker mantra pushed home to me when online was still allowed. It is SO true......how many young kids I knew who went from $50 to $50K...only to blow it all playing higher than their BR/skill level.
Just ask anyone who thought Full Tilt Poker was "safe and secure" on April 14th on how ignoring that axiom worked out for them.
· Euro Zone Has No Plans for an Italy Bailout: Offical ....
Euro Zone Has No Plans for Greek Bailout: Offical ....
Fixed it for you since they're still stuck on that one. :-P
DOW chart reveals very overextended price action and another Wile E Coyote scenario...
http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/2011-11-09_dow_4_zb.png
All that's happening is predictable, as there are 7 stages that every
major economy goes through. Those who know how it works profit & massive
wealth is transferred to them. Several months ago I learned this
information from a millionaire whose site I found & am sharing it with
everyone I know.
His free video
"How To Create Incredible Wealth in Today's Economic Crisis"
is at:
http://theelevationgroup.net/presentation/register.php?a_aid=160667&a_bid=290b868b&chan=y
Hope this info helps everyone as much as it has me.
Dr. Nancy