Stocks Dump Into Close After Help From Oil And Bonds All Day

Tyler Durden's picture


Early weakness in Treasuries (rising yields) and an acceleration in WTI prices back over $80 provided the 'contextual' support for an almost perfect 38.2% retracement bounce in S&P 500 e-mini futures today. Key support/resistance at the 1330 level was restested on dismal volume with a late-day surge but average trade size and activity picked up rather notably into the bell and ES cracked back almost 7 points to a 'mysterious' VWAP close. HYG outperformed today (as did VXX - and implicitly VIX which closed around 18% dropping 2 vols) but it appeared medium-term that equities were reverting to HYG's less sanguine view of the last month rather than HYG really leading. Financials were strong performers but all of those gains were at the open with XLF (and JPM which was unable to break VWAP in the afternoon) unch from 930ET and MS/GS/BAC/C all down 0.7% to 1.6% from the open (with a late day give back). Gold, Silver, and Copper are pretty much unchanged from the 4pmET close levels of yesterday while WTI is up over 2% closing back above $80. The long-bond underperformed +7bps on the day but outperformed on the week (as the 7Y and 10Y underperformed on the week) and provided the support for equity's levitation but this seemed as much QE-hope unwind as any implicit weakness. FX markets were dead with slight strength in AUD and EUR and weakness in JPY as USD basically trod water +0.8% on the week.

S&P 500 e-mini futures perfectly hit the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and sold back off (and although the chart doesn't show it, ES drifted all the way back to the light blue line which is VWAP)...

And while HYG outperformed (red) over the last two days, on a longer-term scale, it appears equities (green) have merely retraced back to a QE-hope-less level (and we note that HYG is now back at fair with it intrinsics - lower pane)...


as WTI was the big performer on the day but Silver and Oil were weak on the week...

which given the USD only gained 0.8% (and dead today) is quite notable...

and while 30Y underperformed today, it remains the modest winner on the week (though the entire Treasury complex is higher in yield on the week)...

and as is clear from CONTEXT (our prxy for risk assets) the push in yields and Oil provided the impetus for stocks to rise but once they reached their convergence, equities tumbled and reverted rapidly to VWAP into the close - a dismal end to a hopeful day...

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: ES dumped rapidly to VWAP in the after-hours session...

and JPM Intraday was unable to break its VWAP all afternoon suggesting plenty of selling pressure from pros...

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Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:34 | 2552406 uno
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:34 | 2552407 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If you are trading, don't complain about the volitility, it is a good thing.  Next week should be fun.  Must....  keep....  energy... and ..... commodities...   down....  for....  the... independence.... day.....   traveling....    and .... election....

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:58 | 2552616 resurger
resurger's picture

good point

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 07:40 | 2553355 MuppetMaster
MuppetMaster's picture

I have found Alpha. & I give it to you for free.

Come see what I'm doing. See what I'm seeing.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:35 | 2552410 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ummm....VIX futures chart after close?


Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:36 | 2552412 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bring it Cdad.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:47 | 2552443 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Good grief!  Lots of funky shit going on AH today...roll ups...HFT flash dashes [TGT]...flash crashes [XOM]...etc etc

What a complete joke of a market.  How is it that M. Shapiro of the SEC cannot see this crap, huh? Is she blind or mentally retarded? 

It is obviously martini time...

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:48 | 2552448 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Both.  A lot of "getting" while the getting is good.  I still see/have a lot of cash on/going to the sidelines.  Need to take July off, don't cha know.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:50 | 2552452 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

She's neither blind nor retarded...she's corrupt.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:07 | 2552489 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Total horse fixing going on with XOM...just check that magic AH volume there. Nice dark pool action.  Yeah...just transact at any price you like...go ahead...buck spreads...hey, go for a three dollar spread already!  

Thank you fucking dick head Duncan Niederauer for these completely fucked up markets.  Really appreciate that none of you cock blocks at the exchanges have the slightest clue where or why anything on your markets are transacting at any given moment.  Fucking SUPER!  That'll build average Joe's confidence back up, and surely will lead us back to capital formation...SURE!  

Hey, I about futures on....High Frequency Trading, ticker symbol HFuckingT? three or four layers of derivatives on top of an inverse HFuckingT ETF, too!  Fuck yeah! 

Hey M. Shapiro...GET A FUCKING CLUE ALREADY!  Stop taking payoffs from GETCO and do your job!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 08:07 | 2553373 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

the last 5 minutes of trading before 4 and the 5-10 minutes after 4 looked so phonied up. closing prices changed more than i have seen in recent memory...tres bizarre

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:37 | 2552414 surf0766
surf0766's picture

It's the communists fault.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:39 | 2552425 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

What's up with the banks and retailers?


"Worst of the Worst" like Regions Bank still pinned at the highs.

California Stalwarts like Wells Fargo barely off the highs

New 52-week highs for Whole Foods, WTF???

Shopping mall REITS still pinned near the highs, as if nothing was wrong in the world.

Cult growth names like ULTA Salons still pinned at record highs


Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:46 | 2552444 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but what will happen next week?

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:52 | 2552457 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

take a look at the declining volume going into the recent highs

stay long on those for a couple weeks and tell me how it works out for you

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:19 | 2552524 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Robob doesn't do future...only rear-view mirror; that's why he/she is always RIGHT

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:37 | 2552564 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Central planning believes the best time to pull a ramp job is when they need to make a gazillion bank downgrades look bullish. Very clever, actually.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:55 | 2552466 fuu
fuu's picture

So on Friday you let your hair down, take the bra off, and slip out of character?

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:23 | 2552535 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture


Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:48 | 2552446 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

VIX is a mystery.  Seems really cheap at 18.  Anyone selling today is likely going to regret. 

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:51 | 2552456 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Awesome volume today, back to the same ole same ole. Now we have 48hrs to see what kind of idiotic horseshit the elite can come up with to spew forth from their shitholes located on their faces next week. They probably pray for the bell on friday. Pray to satan that is.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:56 | 2552469 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

It's a tug of war.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:04 | 2552483 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

clamped down firmly?

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:28 | 2552550 fuu
fuu's picture

Like Merkel's thighs on Ben's ears.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:29 | 2552551 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

If you don't let go in a tug of war when your team finally gives up, you can have your arms ripped off.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:52 | 2552596 q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTD while there is still some dip in it. When WWIII hits next week it is off to the moon.

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 19:26 | 2552789 Wave-Tech
Wave-Tech's picture

For those intersted, here is my short-term outlook for the Dow...

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 21:03 | 2552916 localpacific
localpacific's picture

Glad they mentioned the VIX in this great article by ZH there is Plenty of volatility, little progress however

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 22:00 | 2552973 The Axe
The Axe's picture

The volume stinks worse then Mary S. twat

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