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Stocks Have Biggest Week Of The Year On Lowest Volume

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The S&P 500 gained over 3.5% this week (with a dip-and-rip today on dismal volume). This is the best week of the year amid the lowest volume of the year (ex-holiday weeks). Gold, Stocks, Treasury yields, and the USD all recoupled from last Friday's decoupling and limped higher, ending at the top of the day's range today. Financials and Tech outperformed - up over 1.1% - with the majors best as financials won on the week +4.8%. Treasuries close to close were dull but intraday saw rather notable vol as 30Y yields dropped over 10bps before round-tripping back to its high yields of the day. All-in-all, broad risk assets did leak higher today but nothing like as exuberantly as stocks which was somewhat surprising into a weekend likely full of equity dilution for Spanish banks (and more burden for Spain) - or none at all. The USD rallied into the European close and sold off after for the fifth day in a row. HYG outran stocks on the day and maintained the bid (ES closed at overnight highs) but IG and HY credit lagged on the day - though are al better on the week. Cross asset-class correlations dropped notably into the close, as implied correlation dropped and VIX was very stable given the rally into the close, holding above 21% - even as S&P 500 e-mini futures ended the day more than 2 sigma above VWAP (as we suspect futures roll effects kept some out into the weekend). Lastly, this push higher today in stocks saw a major drop in average trade size - certainly not offering the kind of follow through to yesterday's (or the week's) gains that one would expect on a new bull leg.

Today saw ES retrace perfectly 38.2% of its last few day's rally only to bounce and push back to close at those highs...

S&P 500 rose over 3.5% on the week, best week in six months, as volume lagged dramatically...

led by financials best week in 3 months...

But Stocks, Bonds, USD, and Gold all resynced from last week's decoupling and limped along together...

As the S&P 500 e-mini futures closed at overnight highs and rather surprisingly around 2 sigma (light blue) above VWAP (red) with a late-day shift in peak volume (the dark blue line) suggesting we had auctioned up to retest those levels as we note some bigger blocks going through at the close...

For the fifth day in a row, the dollar strengthened into the European close and then faded after...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:31 | 2508612 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You see?  Be happy.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 17:42 | 2508873 falak pema
falak pema's picture

where is "such a boring world!" I miss him!

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 18:17 | 2508961 fuu
fuu's picture

What crisis!

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 18:25 | 2508994 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Storm in a teacup!

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 01:36 | 2509696 montana1978
montana1978's picture

Buy silver it's on sale now!!!

 

-John
Business Promo Video Creation
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=190689193334

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 09:58 | 2510021 ndotken
ndotken's picture

Vol down + prices up = just more evidence of mkt manipulation ... no wonder the muppets are now investing elsewhere

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:34 | 2508623 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

A market based on money printing and rumors of money printing, nothing more, and eventually it will implode as the titanic did on it's way down to the bottom.

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 02:50 | 2509755 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

We've had strong earnings momentum relative to expectations for a while now. If you're a bottom up guy who lived through the era of stretched valuations, equities look pretty good. Corporate margins are very, very high.

Central banks can change risk perception & valuation multiples, but they really don't drive margins / earnings.

This is a key issue for the second half of this year.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:35 | 2508628 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Worst week followed by best week.  Classic needle bottom.  Got long?

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:35 | 2508630 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

FLUFF

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 17:42 | 2508872 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

BLUFF

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:38 | 2508638 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

OT in Japan people want to restart nucleair plants. Energy burden. You know.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:43 | 2508654 kito
kito's picture

todays near 100 point dow pump and dump. you have to be delusional to think europes problems will be resolved this weekend. i cant think of monday as anything but total chaos.  

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 17:55 | 2508909 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

Yes, but this kind of market lasted all of January. Then into February. Then into March. Europe's problems didn't start in April and there was plenty of bad news that got ignored on the way to 1422.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating going long here. I'm just saying that this kind of thing can persist longer than anyone can imagine.

Now, having said this, yesterday and today look a lot like May 25 and 29 just before the market went to break 1300 support. Having been through this round trip now, it's possible that neither 1300 nor 1275 will provide much support now and before you know it we're testing last year's lows.

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 03:26 | 2509784 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Doubt a big sudden downdraft is in the cards. Little fear in the credit market. Also, a lot of put protection has been bought the last couple days. Looks like higher prices are more likely, with a few bumps.

Best scenario would be a rash of good news and a big, fast upward rip as buyers pile on, dump treasuries, buy financials and sell downside protection. I can only dream.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:44 | 2508660 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness . . .  we had everything before us, we had nothing before us . . . "

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:44 | 2508666 asteroids
asteroids's picture

We've seen this before. Low volume ramp not confirmed. A few days later, boom, the bulls are trapped.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:51 | 2508685 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

not a bad week considering

considering

  • consumer credit
  • labor markets
  • productivity
  • factory orders
  • and the fact that evrybuddy is lying thru desassholes
Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:53 | 2508697 HarryM
HarryM's picture

The big question is - how long does this UpTick last?

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 17:33 | 2508842 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

generally, the summer rallies have pretty good legs, b/c everybody is drinking with tyler and having freakBros swim parties w/ slewie and nobody cares about the eternal low-volume melt-ups

this year, i dunno

altho everything is screwed down tight by the banksters and the markets they control, one must wonder about the 17th-25th of june as being a possible profit-taking opportunity for those who are prepared

with the fungibility of the international banksters' eternal offerings of debt-money tho, it is very difficult to tell

this close is a bull's wet-dream, imo. at least short-term;  it is stronger than slewie expected to see, and i'm kinda impressed, personally, even if it was done by the same old crooks with the same old m.o.

the EU leadership followed my advice and didn't say anything too styooopid till the markets were fini, today, and it worked! 

i think that even tyler must be beginning to see that this really isn't 2011 redux;  the cB-controlled and FED-orchestrated fungibility follies are going to be titrated in the lab, drop-by-drop, by the technocrats in the white coats...

this is food-chain economics and the top predators can not eat too fast, here;  unlike many possible futures with abruptness [predicted by many] there is also the slow roast and long feasting on the herd as it is it thinned;  wealth slowly transferred;  poverty slowly encroaching;  ZIRP being accepted;  price-controlling like never b4;  flows being re-discounted;  kick the can, again...

there are important elections all over the globe;  these elections legitimize the status quo more than anything else imaginable, imo

gonna take a while to get to next year no matter what...  ...assuming there is gonna be a next year, of course...

if there is, the status quo will be in the driver's seat and may again embrace the truly moronic, but we can... hope...  ?

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 19:19 | 2509154 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Well spoken. The status quo controls the sheeple completely.

I've opined that this is all orchestrated for maximum implosion (probably just a planned market crash) about six weeks before the November elections, legitimizing the need for a Romney.

Obama seems to be purposely throwing the election. My first clue was his nonsensical stance on the Keystone XL pipeline, which the mainstream media simply brushed aside. Today, he said the private sector was doing "OK." Guess his standards are quite a bit lower than mine and most knowing, thinking economic pundits.

I don't see why they have to engage in all the theatrics, though. 2004 proved just how easy it is to rig elections in the US.

Move along, nothing to see here except the advance of the police state and the daily chemtrails. Keep your head down. It's ugly.

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 00:31 | 2509641 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the stuff you mention is all stuff which is beyond individual control

each thing:  nothing you or i can do about it, really

and yet, there may be areas where this is not true:  areas of one's own life where you and you alone can make the proper decision or apply the necessary energy for yourself

and,  they may not be the same for different people

if the micro is like the macro, better work on the micro for a while, ok?

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 03:51 | 2509801 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Based on the timing of announcements today, it does appear there is a communications plan in place to mitigate market "fluctuations" (panic). If so, maybe in the short-term it will attenuate bullishness, reduce volatility and levitate prices.

Makes one wonder though if leaders have any clue about what triggers the wolf pack.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:59 | 2508701 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Since derivatives came into vigour in the 1990's with widespread and almost ubiquitous use in the commercial banking sector since that time, the following chart aught to make for an interesting view point:

http://scharts.co/NY5XXp

If you have a membership with stockcharts.com, you would see that the Nasdaq topped out first, then the U.S. dollar, then the Philedelphia Housing Index, then crude, then the TYX/T2Y ratio, then  the U.S. Long Dated treasury bond price is topping now, to be followed then by Gold, I should think!

It all started in the 1990's.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 16:56 | 2508705 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Can it get any more blatant???  Wait.... don't answer that.

God only knows the fiat thrown at the "markets" this week to produce this nonsensical outcome.

They will do it... until they can't

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 17:39 | 2508859 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Us markets and economy are central bank/Zirp pumped, in Oligarchy manipulation. But if the Euro weakens it kills the effect of Zirp and FED pump. Geithner and Bernanke are between are rock n a hard place; like surrogate ECB. Merkel must decide if its financial WAR or surrogate peace with Pax Americana.

Awesome decision. As all banks tank if Spain and Merkel along with Greece go viral, as euro zone stabilisation becomes too tuff! Then FED will have to decide if it protects the global banks via QE to infinity and takes the burden of USD hegemony to the hilt and beyond, or lets them burn and retrenches to a 1930 scenario in total protectionist mode. If the shitta hits the fans, we are in totally unchartered waters as the Oligarchs of first world will be daggers drawn. 

Either way, start praying to holy mary and our father who art in heaven, if you be of christian bent. Or to Gaia if you be secular! 

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 18:27 | 2508908 SUPERIOR BULLION
SUPERIOR BULLION's picture

It seems inevitable that we are headed into another 2008-style meltdown; except that it is going to be much, much worse this time.

In the meantime, however, the market also seems to be telling us that just like in '08, we are going to see one last hurrah before the plug is finally pulled. We see 3-6 weeks, at most, of totally irrational exuberance remaining in this bull market.

Our short-term price targets for Gold and Silver are $1800 and $38, respectively. We expect these level to be reached, briefly, within 3-6 weeks. Medium term, look for a correction below the $1500 and $25 levels, before the "Big Reset". If you are waiting for the absolute bottom to purchase your bullion, however, be warned that just like in 2008, availability of physical Gold and Silver at those price levels may be non-existent.

http://www.superiorbullion.com

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 20:37 | 2509329 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i think good analysis, including the fact that pm's may be priced much lower, but will you be able to find any.

 

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 22:19 | 2509480 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I'm just a self-employed-no-money-schmuck, but I still buy silver every time I get an extra buck. $20 worth of "junk" coins here, a $100 worth of rounds there add up after a while.

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 04:06 | 2509806 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

How about this less bearish option. The world does not fold in on itself. Instead we get a global recession featuring a moderate goods and services recession in the US. Prices correct, we move on.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 18:06 | 2508938 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Best week of the year on the lowest volume of the year....

Thats normal right.......?

Ps....

Fuck yous Timmy and Ben,and your ESF.....

Fucking dogs.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 18:20 | 2508971 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

I gotta feel like it has to do with last Tuesday's repudiation of unionism in concert with people now thinking and saying out loud in public Zer0bama has got had his ticket punched.

 It's hard to admit but obvious that many republican muppets (with the little elephant tattoo) have only a slight advantage over leftist muppet thinking when it comes to critical thought.. this week proves a little cheerleading goes a long way when emotionalism fuels a market that keeps forgetting the money has already been spent.

pretty light volume for a real rally- but, why should this week be different?

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 20:36 | 2509326 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 daily in a corrective pattern according to elliott wave - volume was anaemic.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 23:08 | 2509539 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

let's start the shitstorm already-this is so incredibly boring. one final wagnerian gotterdamerung to cull the weak and stupid from the herd. i can feel it wanting to explode like a humid-air summer storm.

Fri, 06/08/2012 - 23:46 | 2509589 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Shorts are just waiting to pounce.  1350 looks like a good spot.  Who's in?  

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 00:09 | 2509623 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

...its the "look Ma" no inflation everything is going to be fine Federal rally. Gold ,Silver, Gasoline, and Oil underpreform the zombie sectors..... retail,housing and financials.

Bust retail Gasoline  under $3 by election time and  Push "the market" back up to where it belongs before the nex wave of reality sets in.

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 04:12 | 2509809 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Typically, I enter a trade when the odds look really compelling. Have to wait and see what things look like at 1350, assuming prices get there. They could work higher.

Sat, 06/09/2012 - 03:42 | 2509796 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

But...but...but...CNBC was touting the best week since the beginning of the year and not mentioning volume or that "volatility" word (?).

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