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Stocks Limp Higher As ES Volume Is Dismal

Tyler Durden's picture


It seems everyone has positioned for what is to come as today was blah. The volume on the NYSE was decent which is expected given the OPEX but trading in the e-mini S&P futures contract (ES) was dismal - lower even than the 2/6 and 2/13 low levels at what looks like the lowest non-holiday trading day since 2006. A very narrow range day (basically from last night's day session close) with a small pop this morning around the day session open saw the highs of the day but ES tried to inch back up there in the afternoon - as credit (IG, HY, and HYG) went sideways from after the European close. Financial and Discretionary stocks outperformed as XLF made new recent highs (while credit spreads remain near 5 week wides). VIX futures tracked stocks for the most part (with a slight push higher into the close) but implied correlation diverged (bearishly) higher. FX markets were relatively calm with in EURUSD with AUD and JPY (-2.5% on the week) weakness the main drivers of USD strength off European session lows - but USD ended the day practically unch (+0.5% on the week). The USD strength dragged Silver down over 1% on the week and Copper down 3.8% (biggest loser today) while Gold outperformed the USD and ended green on the week above $1720. Oil was the winner up almost 5% on the week - its biggest gain of the year - ending above $103.5 for WTI. Treasuries came back off their high yields of the day after Europe closed with a little more push into the close leaving 30Y unch for the week and the short-end +3-4bps.


Credit did nothing all afternoon (post Europe's close) while stocks limped quietly higher on ever decreasing average trade size...

...but implied correlation bucked the risk-on trade as despite a falling VIX (which limped along with stocks on this OPEX-ridden day), saw macro protection in more demand than micro. This has tended to be a tell for short-term reversals in trend (not the earth-shattering changes that credit and financials are signalling).

Treasuries reverted back to around unch with a slight flattening on the week.

FX (like credit) was very calm today except for AUD and JPY weakness.

WTI outperformed Brent today after they tracked one another relatively well all week.

Charts: Bloomberg

Your rating: None

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Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:33 | 2171461 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

fuck , the moment i reversed positions in usd/jpy jpy droped.. wtf


i am getting being wrong all week.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 17:13 | 2173583 FuentesElla23
FuentesElla23's picture

a best friend's mother-in-law makes $73 hourly on the computer. She has been laid off for 6 months but last month her income was $14399 just working on the computer for a few hours. Go to this web site and read more .... LazyCash9.com

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:38 | 2171483 Sutton
Sutton's picture

The criminals at MFG chased me out of the markets Dimon and crew overturned a hundred years of law to rape me and others  Trading is hard enough  Why lose your money over a weekend through corrupt judges  Fuck them and the CME

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:43 | 2171510 Fortunes Favor
Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:53 | 2171537 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

I´d be very, very careful. Just keep stalking the bear, although I might go short APPL next week me thinks...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:59 | 2171558 RSloane
RSloane's picture

He's dead right about copper.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:51 | 2171531 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

yep, stocks "limping" to a 3 year high.

some limp!

meantime how is the ZH 2011 gold-rally-to-the-moon going?

now that is what i call a 'limp'.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:54 | 2171541 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

It´s going nicely, thank you. Limping in first place among assets in something like the eleventh year?

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 03:26 | 2172498 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Your green shoots were made with GMO. Time to get your hedger out dude.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:58 | 2171552 RSloane
RSloane's picture


Right post, wrong place. Oops.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 03:29 | 2172499 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If you're anything like your avatar and not a cigar smoking truck driver that wears dresses you can lay your post down anywhere. No problem.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 18:21 | 2171625 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Have not seen much chatter about the fact that Nigeria is descending into civil war.  They export more oil than Libya.  Look for oil about $125 sooner than later.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 18:36 | 2171673 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Kind of a good thing we don't seem to have much use for oil in the USA anymore, eh?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:22 | 2171788 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

oxygen ..oxygen ...oxygen

Just call blowjob Ben 'bubbles' Bernanke, specialist in faking the Goldilocks economy

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 20:08 | 2171888 EZT
EZT's picture

when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door..

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 20:54 | 2171972 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

+++>...but implied correlation bucked the risk-on trade as despite a falling VIX (which limped along with stocks on this OPEX-ridden day), saw macro protection in more demand than micro. This has tended to be a tell for short-term reversals in trend (not the earth-shattering changes that credit and financials are signalling).<+++

tarbender!  give tyler a double!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:06 | 2171996 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

from Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Little Changed on the Week

i don't think a day went by this week that tyler didn't remark the dataDissonance;  this summary array almost certainly won't copy well, so check the link yourself and marvel at the comic which our heroes are writing:


Philadelphia Fed - February 

10.2 v. 7.3

PPI - January

0.1% v. -0.1%

Core PPI - January

0.4% v. 0.3%

Building Permits - January

676K v. 671K

Housing Starts - January

699K v. 689K

Initial Claims - 2/11

348K v. 361K

NAHB Housing Market Index - February

29 v. 25

Capacity Utilization - January

78.5% v. 78.6%

Industrial Production - January

0.0% v. 1.0%

Net Long-Term TIC Flows - December

$17.9B v. $61.3B

Empire Manufacturing - February

19.5 v. 13.5

Business Inventories - December

0.4% v. 0.3%

Import Prices - January

0.3% v. -0.1%

Import Prices ex-oil - January

0.1% v. 0.2%

Export Prices - January

0.2% v. -0.5%

Export Prices ex-ag. - January

0.0% v. -0.2%

Retail Sales - January

0.4% v. 0.0%

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 07:07 | 2172600 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Baltic Dry Index is down 60% since the beginning of the year and close to a 20-year low.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 13:43 | 2173041 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I don't suppose we've invented teleporters yet.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 16:25 | 2173480 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Weak demand, slow movement of commodities and raw materials, extreme glut of just about everything obviously has resulted in collapsing shipping rates. BDI is a leading indicator so a crash in commodities in stocks is probably a few weeks ahead.

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