Stocks Spike In (And After) Close To New Post-2008 High As Volume Resumes Slide

Tyler Durden's picture

A few hours after the US reported a jobs number which missed consensus estimates on broad weakness, which saw a nearly 400K increase in those no longer even caring about work, and which confirmed that the economic deteriorating is nowhere close to ending, stocks did their thing and with no news, and on no volume (the same reason why like Nomura, ever fewer banks can afford to keep trading desks), decided to surge into the close even as volume slid, with the NYSE trading its new post-Knight normal average of a few shares over half a billion. This sent the ES to a new post-2008 high. In other news, we are approaching 15x forward P/E even as the world's global economies are grinding to a screeching halt.Central planning is here to stay and the stock market will merely levitate ever higher on hope that the central bankers have it all under control.

ES spiking in the last minute of trading. And after. We are now 15x the real projected S&P Earnings (once the Q4 surge is normalized for reality) of 96.


And Volume:

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Cplus's picture

The 5 yr 5yr forward  broke out to a new 12 month high close today and is trending to break the 3% barrier no later than October.
The central bankers will soon be seen to be threatening the world economy with mutual assured destruction.

Ahmeexnal's picture

How to get out of jail free: stip naked during your trial.

Will banksters perform the full monty at court when TSHTF, or when the angry mobs lynch them?

vast-dom's picture

15x the real projected S&P Earnings (once the Q4 surge is normalized for reality) of 96 = TOTAL FUCKING INSANITY! I could ask how is this possible but that'd be as moot as it is obvious.........the only checks to this are GOLD and SILVER and to a lesser extent OIL - the trifecta shall push through manipulation and when JPM gets fucked on their silver shorts all 3 will break the fuck out.

Hype Alert's picture

The confidence game of a rallying market isn't working as the work force craters and ISM's third month of contraction tells otherwise. 

icanhasbailout's picture

But since every round of really bad economic news comes with yet another bailout, this is bullish. Remember last election?

Is the election cycle the new business cycle?

slewie the pi-rat's picture

we have been noting the divergences and problems with the US ISM data since a year ago last Spring

here, too

tyler is starting to "catch up" with what has actually been happening since he started "campaigning" last summer, imo

i have personally, myself put up ~100 posts, each "explaining" that IF the market ISN'T "discounting growth"  what could it be doing?

so you would know what my "hare-brained" ideas are if you read my posts

and btw, my hare-brained ideas have called this "market" pretty well, but i'm biased;  however, my posts are actually there, also!

slewie has not agreed with tyler about how the markets "should be" behaving in a VERY long time

slewinomics have focused on how the markets ARE behaving, and why

i'll repeat it again for the retards, ok?

the markets are not "sad" about the economic 'flattening" b/c they are "happy" that the economic system seems MUCH MORE STABLE that a few years ago

now, that seems to fit, at least for me;  i'm not saying that perception is the truth;  i am simply saying that i, slewie, think the markets are perceiving this and are "happy" about it, and the prices reflect this

this MAY be the "biggest delusion in stock-market herstory" but that is beside the point, ok? 

your company equities will be worth more if ya think the SYSTEM will make it thru the next quarter than they would be if you weren't sure;  and, they ARE!  viola!  see!  every day!  happy!

and, in the world of "large numbers" this may be the operative function for the "pricing mechanism"

the corollary would be :> if that function gets perceived as shredded then the prices would also get shredded

now this is certainly neither complex nor underhanded

however, if one is not willing to question tyler, one will be UNABLE to understand slewie until one free from "tyler is never wrong"

if this is a "CON" it is at least 8 months old, not 3

slewienomics is saying IF the "market" perceives STABILTY it will be happy

a downturn is not theEnd.  i started developing that idea  in MAY 2011, here on zH

IF the "downturn" does not destroy the perceived stability of the economic system (which it hasn't, imo) it MAY be priced in as "healthy and happy"

we may not be able to "make" the economy do quite what we thought we could here, any more;  i think most reasonable people are accepting that and not just screaming "ain't it awful" 100 times per week as a response to what seems to me to be pretty obvious political propaganda here :>  agit-prop101

so if we can't "monetize true growth here" we hafta ACCEPT what we can do;  which seem to me to be keep the checks in the mail

that is MUCH better than not being able to keep the checks in the mail  after the political decisions of 2008 and the dodd/frank bankstering law of 2010

i am not dreaming that, dude; and neither is the equities market(s)

you may be dreaming something about your "tyler" though...

i think stocks are a bit "exuberant" here, WITH tyler; but that doesn't mean the stock market isn't gonna stop bein happy;  OR that it is gonna stop bein happy

it is just my opinion, which i share w/ tyler :> exuberant!  look!  see?

it's the stock market, for pete's sake, not some academic study or nanny chapter budget or bank statement

and post-bailout, apparently it doesn't look like people expected

tough nugies

maybe we'll see some horrors before the election b/c "they" can't paper things over any longer

i agree WE decidied to paper things over in 2008 and are STILL papering like crazy!  fuking duh or what?

in slewienomics :> if the perception that this is stable changes for the worse, stock prices will change for the worse

if it doesn't, they probably won't be too "unhappy" price-wize

a fifth grader could understand what i'm saying, but no one here is free from tylerism except a VERY few minds who have stayed to fight and learn together

and you are not one of theFew

don't blame me for market data facts and explaining them cogently

i don't care how you "value" the 2008 & 2010 LEGISLATIVE decisions;  i don't applaud them;  i'm quite thumbs down but MORE about 2008

IF we're gonna paper everything X $10 Tril or whatever, THEN i think WE'd better make sure it doesn't blow the fuk sky-hi again

which it may,  b/c "papering" is a POLITICAL decision, NOT an "economic" one

but the decision HAS BEEN MADE and you and i are powerless to change it, especially by voting in nov 2012.  that isn't gonna change 2008

everybody seemed to accept it in the 2008 election, didn't they?  did mcCain say he wanted to cashier all the BK zombie corporations?  i don't think prez0 did either;  nor mittens;  he accepts this, doesn't he?  can you show me in the R platform where they want to liquidate the corpo-fascist TBTF zombi corps?  i don't think so

the congress passed dodd/frank; not the FED

prez0 signed it;  not benzelbub

well!  they are just "puppets"

right!  and you're not?

p.s.:  i couldn't make this shit up, BiCheZ!  L0L!!!

dogismyth's picture

haha slewie.  You see much more than others.  ZH is a longer viable as a interpretive news source.  Just hype.  Here's my comment on another forum.


the mentality on this board makes me feel good, largely because most are so anal and so easily culled.

what is the goal of ZH? To provide you with what?

Unfortunately, the biggest swindles are blogs like this, although they do provide some entertainment.

I would love to see how ZH would refute the following articles.  Really.


IMO, this blog has a single objective: to sway sentiment.  And judging from the type of slanted articles that are release, en masse, and the comments...they have succeeded.  How many years of negativity and dooming can you take?

Western's picture

But that would mean CNBC is correct and ZH is wrong.

q99x2's picture

Markets have been killed dead.

Obama's taking credit for the markets.

Corzine has started a new investment company.

Be safe. Algos run a lot faster than man.

StychoKiller's picture

In Sri Lanka and India, woodcutters have to wear facemasks on the back of their heads in order to keep tigers from sneaking up on them from behind and eating them.  Just keep going about yer tradin' bidness and "assume" that the tiger(z) aren't gonna get ya.  Sorry, but that attitude isn't much better than RoboTrader's. 

They catch monkeys by placing fruit inside of spherical traps with a hole in it, just big enough for the monkey's paw to get in, but NOT big enough for extracting the fruit.  The monkeyz, being greedy, refuse to let go of the fruit, until their skullz are bashed in by the hunterz.

He who has ears, let him hear...

Michael's picture

You think I'm a Tyler STPR?

andrewp111's picture

We are just like Japan. They have been in a post-bubble depression for 20 years, and have papered everything over for that entire time. They had market booms during that time as well, but the long term trend has been down. It is just that you have to look at the graph on a 20 year timescale to see the overall downtrend.

Assetman's picture

Nice capture... they might break that 3% barrier by the end of next week-- all it would take is an official announcement.  At the close today, the 5yr 5yr forward stood at 2.82%.  What's another 18 bps???

As a reference point, the Fed has in the recent past added more QE when the 5yr 5yr forward contracted towards/below the 2.0% level.  During the crisis in 2008, the 5yr 5yr forward collapsed close to 0.0%-- certainly a case would be made for QE then.

So if the Fed actually does go off the deep end an announce a new QE next week-- they are doing so under the pretext of (a) 5 year stock market highs in the face of decelerating earnings; and (b) already elevated inflation expectations. 

Indeed... the Fed has gone M.A.D.



LawsofPhysics's picture

All according to plan, bitchez.

HaroldWang's picture

Did you see the crazy moves in CMG, LULU, PCLN, AMZN, etc. All the high p/e guys were flying today! Absolute insanity!

Ahmeexnal's picture

Norway's Communist Party to spend millions on templar knight killing site.

The youth wing of Norway's Labour Party has announced that it intends to resume hosting summer camps on Utøya island, promising to spend 60 million kroner on redesigning the scene of Anders Behring Breivik's killing spree.

otto skorzeny's picture

who cares. you are an idiot that should go back to HufffPo to post your garbage. the shit you post never has anything to do with the topic.

gjp's picture

March 2000 redux.  Insanity indeed.

Nid's picture

$7 bucks for a bowl of fucking peasant food and the shares are up 15% in two days, 39 PE. What a fucking joke...50% retrace off the earns collapse is about $340ish...lookout below.

Meesohaawnee's picture

all stocks that are "retail" ie everyone knows them. This is all about keeping the sheep calm. Not letting them get wind of how fucked up things are.

Nid's picture

Merkel "headline" out after the close? Does it ever end? Can the news media just loop the segment all weekend so we're at Dow 15k at Monday's open?

khakuda's picture

It's the late 1990s price action all over again.  It's setting up the bubble the Bernank has dreamed of for 4 years.

When people claim there is no inflation, point them to stock and bond prices.

Conman's picture

Or to food, oil, taxes, you know everything we use every day.

ziggy59's picture

Wishium and Hopium are highly addictive ...only cure is Fuckium which leads to Crashium.

Xibalba's picture

Fundamentals?  Who gives a damn....

Rainman's picture

Bernank has wink/nodded the institutionals into staying cool. There's no place for them to go anyway. ZIRP 4-ever makes that 7.5% annual nut look increasingly delusional for the pension funds.   

startingnow's picture

Keeping the folks happy when they open their quarterly 401K statements is exactly the plan.  They read, and think "Well shit, my house is worth less but, I have almost as much as I did in 2008 in my retirement account."  So they vote for Obama; in their eyes he did what he promised....

As for the pension plans, if Geithner and Bernanke hadn't blown equities up like a Strasbourg goose with all the paper liquidity, there would be no union voters for Obama. 

The reelection campaign strategy was the Tres./ Fed. strategy.  And the big banks are just taking advantaage of the opportunity.They are kind of like cats.  If you put a mouse in a cage with a cat, he'll kill it even if he isn't hungry.  And the bankers are always hungary.



J 457's picture

I don't know many people who have fully recovered their 401k balance from 2008.  At least those who had significant amounts.  The indices are on par with 2008, but dig deeper into the company specific equity prices and you can see most are still down.  Many are 60-70% of where they were.  Just look at last 12 months, from GMCR, NFLX, MCP, ANR, FSLR, RIMM, and on and on...The reality is half of America has NO retirement, and those that do have an average balance of about 50k. So the current value of the SPX doesn't matter much to many if not most.  Take away AAPL, PCLN AMZN and the blue chips and SPX would be down to more realistic levels. 

otto skorzeny's picture

51% only has 3 months savings socked away. 50% is on govt. assistance-sums it up nicely

TheSilverJournal's picture

The spiral of inflation pushing up rates causing the need for more money printing and more inflation and a harder push on rates in order to keep rates low just kicked in. This should speed up pretty quick from here.

MFLTucson's picture

The clown show continues!

Tsar Pointless's picture

This is going as I figured.

Wait until next Thursday if you want to get short the market.

And start practicing your delivery of the phrase "President of the United States Mitt Romney" in the mirror.

Zero Govt's picture

weird but i'm not feeling a warm glow from this news and i don't think many in the country is being fooled either

bubble Ben needs a new approach for a feel good factor about the free market mate?

..surely beats propping up all the rotten bankrupts in DC and WS or the tedium of another one of your "Save the Economy" press conferences

Xibalba's picture

Osama 2012 muppets!  

bagehot99's picture

Ben Bernanke knows how to get any excess in the money supply out of the real economy before serious inflation starts. He said so to Congress - they've got three dials in the basment of The Fed, M1, M2 and M3, and Ben just adjusts them when things start spinning like a fucking F5 tornado, and it makes everything alright again.

I don't know what everybody is so worried about - Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman says we need more debt, not less. And Million Dollar Bonus agrees.

If anybody needs me, I'll be in Saskatchawan with my guns.

luna_man's picture



I pity the fools who go anywhere but here!...I'll say it again, MY MAIN MAN, is one of a kind!!


long live MY MAIN MAN!!

q99x2's picture

The markets are out of the hands of the market and owned by central banks.

How ya like me now sukka. That's what they are saying. And, "We own your politicians, your market, your constitution doesn't mean shit, we can now kill you with impunity, we're sending people down to your poisen food outlets to get signatures for planned parenthood...What are you going to do about it?"

I quit. That is what I'm doing about it. Go play with yourselves fuckers.

Giom's picture

Technical  :

Does anyone knows how low can the VIX goes, not surprising we touch again another bottom today....

have a good week end

Calvin Coolidge's picture

Short these leveraged bombs TVIX and UVXY.  100X return in the past 12 months.  

Giom's picture

Technical  :

Does anyone knows how low can the VIX goes, not surprising we touch again another bottom today....

have a good week end

orangegeek's picture

All this market index silliness will continue until the US Dollar (57% weighted against the Euro) starts to rise.


The Euro continues to climb too - wave 2 up in a bearish trend.  When the US Dollar rises again, the Euro, markets and commodities will likely fall.