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As Stocks Surge On Rumor Of Additional QE Measures, Someone Forgot To Tell Europe It Is Fixed: CDS Rerack
Even as stocks surge on the back of the latest rumor that yet another perpetually wrong Medley report has been released and states that the Fed may cut the IOER to zero in addition to Operation Twist (we have not seen the report nor have any interest in putting any faith in a "think tank" work product), someone has apparently forgotten to tell Europe it is all filed. Here is the CDS rerack, which unfortunately shows that this latest stock ramp is to be faded, especially since QE3-666 are already priced in, and will all eventually fail.
ITALY 497/507 +34
SPAIN 423/433 +13
PORTUGAL 1220/1280 +137
IRELAND 900/960 +75
GREECE 54/58 +5
BELGIUM 298/308 +14
FRANCE 189/192 +13
AUSTRIA 149/157 +14
UK 83/86 +4
GERMANY 87/90 +5
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neither of those policies would have anywhere near the impact of qe2 anyways - pure hopium
Yup. But we all know equities are the 'real' market.
So why are the PMs not taking off to infinty if there is more QE planned in the US and more already in Euroland? More intervention of the Cartel? Of Central banks? Mass stupiditiy of people thinking that the DXY means the dollar is actually getting stronger and not just less weak than the others???
We are well past the freshness date on any banker public statements. The market is explaining that there is no magic bailout that will turn the situation.
Gold...hard to say. Profit taking, I'd guess...offsetting losses elsewhere. As well, the move in the US dollar will trip up thousands of algos programmed to respond to what is the unwinding of the most crowded trade in the galaxy [short USD...which is the inverse of long gold].
Hard to play anything from the long side just now....not until the central bankers in Europe simply wave the white flag...at which time, I suspect you get the gold move you have been dreaming of.
But for what it is worth...I'm not very good with the PMs.
The dollar and margin calls IMO. I like this site but I am amazed at the bullishness on the PMs. History has never been kind to any thing that people think can only go up. I agree that the fundamentals (printing) for the PMs to go higher are there but that doesn't mean they have to go higher.
"History has never been kind to any thing that people think can only go up. "
Oh, yeah? How many people ??
What kind of a stupid statement is that?
There are about 1% of the people (all here on ZH it seems) in the world that think that. Does that mean we're gonna get hurt here?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
That's the funniest one I've heard all day!
I didn't say you are going to get hurt in metals. Just responding to a post on the PMs being down.
Perhaps I should rephrase my history comment like this. All good things must come to an end. In case you don't understand that comment, it isn't a sell recommendation on PMs, it is an alert to use your head and not look at the world strictly through gold colored glasses. Just saying, be careful out there!
All thing equal, if the fiats are losing purchasing power, hard assets must go up.
Sure there's ebb and flows but you have to be in the game to pick-up the upside.
Two points:
First, QEx gives time for households/businesses to deleverage, as the debt is offloaded onto the public balance sheet, and as long as the velocity of money doens't increase, inflation is moot, so the FED aren't too concerned. And can continue the program for years.
Secondly, you assume a Greek default will trigger a liquidity crisis, per what happened after the Lehman collapse. But governments have a better understanding of the aftermath of such events, and are already preparing liquidity. So a credit crunch may not happen.
As a rebuttal to your comment. Granted not the government but only by semantics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmqvibv4UU
Anyone know the score?
I think it's Love (my US banks) Love (my ECB banks).
Eh ... Greece lopped a couple of zeros off their CDS quotes?
Clever! Why didn't we think of that?
Sure looks like a bull trap
Belgium + Dexia = Spain + Santander = France + SocGen = QE(Euro Edition)
* Sorry about all the complex math.
No need to be sorry, creative use of imaginary numbers is de rigueur.
done, shorted 20 /es at 1147.
Any time Europe threatens the system, the FED starts printing.
If the Fed doesn't print, Bretton Woods 2 dies and Euro Freegold takes over.
i wonder how long the QE carrot on a stick can keep pulling the markets higher... surely at some point even the idiots out there will realize that: 1) QE is not coming or 2) it won't work anyway.
"Won't work" ???
QE works perfectly. It does exactly what it's supposed to do.
Now ... just what is that? What is its intent?
Simple: Create lots of money and give it to your friends (bankers).
And we all sit around talking about what QE does FOR THE ECONOMY! BRILLIANT!
It was never meant to help the economy.
Follow the money.
'Nuff said.
Every day they dangle the QE3 carrot out in front of the swayback gluehorse markets...giddeyap just 1 more day there ol Nelly....
Stocks are probably surging from European money running away from Europe.
The smart money will go to gold. (Not that there is much of it.)
The stupid money (99%) goes to US stocks.
The fools must play their role!
The reversal has already begun. One of the worst, most impatient ramp jobs I've seen in recent years.
All about making sure the all clear to short signal is in, as anyone chasing this move literally needs, or already has had, a complete frontal lobotomy.
And GS turns 99 today.
They now have no concern about hiding blatant manipulation now, just a 30 minute ramp from -200 open to all green...just a damn travesty what these Maniacal Monetizers have done, completely destroyed markets.
At this point Cdad apparently theyre just 'If we're going down, then EVERYONE is going down with us damn the torpedos!'
OH I see! We priced in QE3 again for the 17th time now at least! Someone 'heard a rumor'....BAAA HA HA HA HAAAAA!!!
thats pretty funny, dog...lmfao!
Yea all I wonder is who was under who's desk this morning giving a blowjob and overheard a rumor!
The new economy = QE, hints of more QE, and more QE...
100% FUBAR.
fuck this I'm setting up my very own counterfit operations -- if Teh Fed can do this ILLEGALLY so can I; just not out in the open..........
Ha, all the market needs to rally is a rumor of QE. It doesn't even need QE at all. The house of HFT can rally to infinity if rumors are all the market needs.
OPEC came out with a forecast of demand destruction and oil trades up. Oil use in the US summer season was 2% below last year. Pretty soon we will be back to 1970s usage levels.
The decoupling of reality from the markets is complete. Only a disaster of biblical proportions or tossing hedge fund managers from the tops of buildings will set the market straight.
The market ignores all sorts of bad economic data in hopes of more QE. What a FUBAR situation.
..and China/India consumption was up 10%. We are not the only market for oil in the world. Unlike fiat currency, oil is finite.
a drop of 2% in US consumption is larger than a 10% increase in China, at least for now. OPEC also said demand in China has decreased as well.
You can't make a bullish case for oil. The correct price of oil is south of $40. When oil began the first massive ramp job every major oil company said it would be profitable to drill anywhere on Earth at $40 a barrel. Amazingly this went to $60 and then $80 as oil blew past $40 on its way to $147. This completely caught the oil producers off guard. They never believed in their wildest dreams that oil could top $40 a barrel.
You could build a rig on the ocean floor and pump profitable oil at $50 a barrel. The cost to pull oil out of the ground has not increased at the same rate as the price of the commodity. Demand hasn't increased at the same percentage as well. If we have such a shortage of oil, why hasn't any gas station run dry? How can we still be storing millions of barrels at overflowing facilities?
If someone started paying your company $100 for something you sold for $10 you wouldn't want to go back to selling it for $10 again. Even if it still only costs you $1 to make it. You'll start to create "reasons" why your cost has gone up in a vain attempt to justify the inflated value.
I bet you believe it actually costs $20 million to pave two miles of road as well.
At least if they manipulate the markets, they should do it more subtly. Seeing swings of more than 1% up and down every half hour removes any remaining credibility to the system!
Theyve lost their damn minds if they think theyre fooling anyone with this crap anymore.
'Rule 48' open from -200 down, which then gets immediately erased?
Computers and the FED the only ones left in 'the market' at this point.
things now seems to return back to normalcy in NA markets. Maybe it was the scared european investors seeking safety that made the market rally after all.
I'm so suspicious that as soon as I see a rally I immediatly scream 'Manipulation'.
Many people are suspicious of the markets these days. It is obvious that markets have not been behaving rationally. Good thing we have a site like ZH to report real news.
What could be more credible than this face?
Is that ratfink?
Holy shit. It's him, post-lasik!
And that was exactly the point. Institutions can now sell at will. There is nobody home on this ramp up...no one. I'm guessing even Art Cashin is shaking his head.
It's called investing...in the context of the "new normal."
Cue the BlowHorn [CNBC] and its parade of criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers talking about "historically cheap valuations" and "buying opportunities" with hourly announcements about how "we are well off of our lows."
...and, of course, while paper PM's get sold off (gold - 22.5) there is a DOW rally from -120 to only -43. Gee! What a surprise! No manipulation here (sarc/off).
How is BAC still up today? Are they getting membership in the club finally. What am I missing here?
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I watch the market upon down big as expected, then I fell asleep for an hour or so and wake up to a green dow and s&p? BAC up? Am I still asleep?
Put/Call ratio opened up at 1.73
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
VXX opened at 48, meaning that huge premiums were paid for puts as well.
FWIW.......
Yep... sold friday expiration SDS 27s for 0.54. Thank you very much for the premium....
If the markets have QE3 priced in already there is going to be one huge dump when it's finally announced.
QE3 would have about as much long term effect as throwing a petite filet mignon into a school of great white sharks.
"Everything is fine" ....they said this morning.
Portugual, Ireland, and then Italy ... looks like there is a little time before the global financial meltdown.
Just the european money fleeing to the USA only to get taken once again. I guess they will never learn.
If they were stupid enough to own stuff in Europe, then I guess theyre stupid enough to buy it here.
But I dont think thats whats happening at all today, Europe didnt suddenly decide to sell and buy US stocks today.
This market is now a travesty.
It will be interesting to see if GS breaks below 100. Just a thought.
Nothing but dispair, lies and manipulation! Laughable!
(Puuutttt Put Put Put :))) )
8 days till Bernank....what ya gonna do there bearded clam??
New HFT program installed this morning-
If Rule 48 and -2% -then- silicon chip hears QE rumors = erase all market drops.
VOILA!
I dont buy this 'Europe sold this morning and bought US equities' pure nonsense.
Indeed sounds like CNBC propaganda. What's that BS doing here?
the flaming turd socgen is going down in flames...
here we come 1050
We should stop using TA or fundamentals and move on to poetic interpretation of charts.
To wit, today's action: 'alpine with the trepidation of youthful love'.
ZEROdamus to "speak" momentarily hehehehe! :))) we know what happens when he "speaks"!
What the hell? I used to laugh at tinhorn dictatorships with guys like Castro giving his 1 hour weekly mandatory for all speeches years ago....hell now we got this damn lunatic Marxist who makes several speeches daily!
Behind the curtain has to be total chaos if theyre wheeling out this JOKER to 'lend confidence' hourly!
Would it help if he put on a flight suit?
C'est un vrai bon mot....
But you must recall that subtlety is not the Hedge's long suit....
You see how dangerous this market is. That is why you never trade on margin. And I never day trade anymore.
At what point do you realize that CDS and spreads mean squat?
The entire casino will be closed eventually as everyone agrees that the interest cannot be paid and that these spreads and CDS etc are really just a figment of someone's imagination.
Berlusconi has just declared war against speculative financial models. More will follow.
It's annoying to say the least. The money is not real, folks. They've built these massive amounts of paper wealth that are stored electronically and are backed by nothing. Well, maybe part of it is really backed by tangibles. But the majority is money out of thin air, created by tricks and financial vodoo.
Now these banksters are able to control Europe's future with the push of a button. They're holding the codes to the financial weapons of mass destruction. We're supposed to believe that what they do is legitimate and is for the best interest of our countries and for our people.
The truth is that they overplayed their hand. Their greed got out of control and when they can't steal from the people without being noticed, they are starting to steal from each other which is why everything is going topsy turvy. The common man has little understanding about the machinations and tricks these banksters are using, the ways and means they control to manipulate politics to their advantage.
And what is the motivation behind all this? A few lazy ass bastards that are born with silver spoons are at the controls of financial weapons of mass destruction and running amok because they can't sustain their own lavish lifestyles anylonger. Yes, their gig is up for the most part. The parasite has just about devoured the hosts.
A reset will affect these parasites more than anyone else. With a reset the parasitic lazy ass bankster cabal will loose their access to the financial weapons of mass destruction and if they survive economically, they might have to live on a fixed income like most of the rest of the people.
Bonus points for ironic use of 'fixed income'.
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