Stocks.Must.Close.Green. Lowest 4-Day Volume in 5 Years

Tyler Durden's picture


Another day, another low volume, low range, VWAP-reverting, must-close-green move in S&P 500 e-mini futures and stocks in general. The last 4 days have been the lowest volume for a non-Xmas holiday week since 2007 in futures and NYSE volumes are just remarkably bad compared to even normal cyclical seasonal dips. The range-compression in equity markets is very reminiscent of last April/May's top but the magic 1400 level was held and maintained by an entirely VWAP-clinging afternoon of trading. HYG dipped intraday and recovered to unch (underperforming once again). VIX ended just in the red at 15.28% - and also had a very narrow range day. Gold led stocks higher even as the USD rose notably (with EUR weakness the main factor) and Treasuries with by far the greatest relative range - thanks to the 30Y auction tail (which was bid like crazy after to end unchanged). The USD is now 0.36% up on the week - but Gold/Silver/Copper/Oil are all up from 1%-2.5% on the week. Broad risk-assets and ETFs all ended the day in sync with stocks as Materials and Energy outperformed while Consumer sectors underperformed (along with financials). Another odd day to say the least.

Futures Volume in the last 4-days is (ex-Xmas) the lowest since early 2007... and the last 2 days have seen the lowest range since April of last year!


and NYSE volume is dismal compared to the last five years - even adjusted (below) for seasonal weakness...


but we feel perilously close to something here...


as moderation and complacency begets exuberance and chaos...


but ES is looking like it needs to drop to refuel if its going higher...

Chart: Bloomberg


Bonus Chart: The New 'Flash-Crashy' Normal in Best-Buy (Best-Sell) today...

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Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:29 | 2692146 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Wanna hear a joke?

The market.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:56 | 2692209 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Low-volume consolidation before the next move up to ES 1425.  Call it the "Bidermann bear-in-denial thumbscrew move."

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:58 | 2692327 GernB
GernB's picture

That would make sense if anyone could give a plausible explanaton as to why the market is near multi-year highes when nothing substantial has changed from several weeks ago when it was hovering in the 1320s. What spooks investors is when the market rallies 80 points on nothing.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:39 | 2692544 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Market is topped out.  Time to go long volatility and triple leveraged shorts.  Volume is extremely thin.  Market will be easily spooked.  The big money knows it.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:40 | 2692547 erik
erik's picture

I'm thinking head fake above 1422 previous highs, driving VIX sub-15 and 10 Yr to 2%, then an overall market top could be in place.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 20:34 | 2692693 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Could it be that with HFT, algo Vs. algo, when no one takes the head fake, there is NO trading?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:34 | 2692278 runlevel
runlevel's picture

Wanna see a magic trick?

<flash crash>

GONE! tada!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:34 | 2692148 magpie
magpie's picture

So its effectively down to the 10 Billion POMO next week for the 30 year keeping the market levitated...nay, markets around the world.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:32 | 2692150 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture


I swear I watched it for 2 minutes of dead time yesterday.

Don't move boys and girls or else.

A rally to believe in right?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:44 | 2692186 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

market tops occur when there are no more buyers

see what happened after the last time the volume was this low in 2007?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:31 | 2692152 john_connor
john_connor's picture

I went to take a dump and out came the market.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:32 | 2692153 user2011
user2011's picture

Are there any ETF or options that tracks the stock volume ?

I want to buy the bearish of that...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:36 | 2692164 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

interesting thought.. a nyse volume histogram that orbits VIX.  I wonder.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:33 | 2692159 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

manchester united ipo's tommmorow that will be fun!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:25 | 2692259 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

and more important, WHEN CAN WE SHORT IT!!!

this time I'm going all in on the puts! 4 months ahead, and than wait for the Facepalm effect!

Just in time for a spectacular christmass gift that keeps on giving!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 20:35 | 2692696 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture


Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:34 | 2692160 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

It's dying a slow death.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:35 | 2692163 resurger
resurger's picture

Is it just me, but i think there is something really bad is about to come, i feel it

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:34 | 2692277 Boston
Boston's picture

Reminds me of the 'lull' during the Beijing Olympics in August 2008.......

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 21:56 | 2692861 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Or the roller coaster almost coming to a stop as it reached the peak?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:36 | 2692165 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

I can't wait until volume goes negative

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:38 | 2692166 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Jim - I think it's dead.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:28 | 2692265 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I think it needs some music to go with it ;)

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:07 | 2692475 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Kill me now. Please. Just make them stop. I'm begging you. ;)

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:40 | 2692171 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Are we close to the bottom yet?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:44 | 2692188 govttrader
govttrader's picture

Well, if something bad is coming...and the Fed is about to buy 10 bln 30yr in 20 days via POMO...long Vix, short S&P and buy dips in bonds!!!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:57 | 2692213 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

The real joke comes when Benny Boy buys a trillion worth and everyone sells into it.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 20:35 | 2692698 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

That's MY plan !!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 16:57 | 2692214 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"more whisper" than "Whispering Death" indeed. oh, well.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:00 | 2692218 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

probably cuz of the olympics

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:23 | 2692254 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

all the traders must be in Disneyland right now to explain this kind of low volume...
it's like we're in the 2007 euphoria market all over again!
nobody selling, everybody expecting the market to double, tripple when QE3 is launched....
just imagine where the market would be if all the earnings reports would be well! maybe even at the same level as today's bad earnings levels!!!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:52 | 2692307 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

just think if the short ban were lifted...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:29 | 2692266 Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

Earlier today someone said all the computers are cannibalizing themselves.   One can only hope.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:33 | 2692275 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Is the paint dry yet?

Never fear, Jackson Hole is near!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:53 | 2692310 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

god please. i cant go thru one more fucking day of QE talk. MOMMY MAKE IT STOP!!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 18:46 | 2692425 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

just don't look under the bed

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:10 | 2692482 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think there's room under there next to Ben. He's hiding from the lynch mob.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 18:48 | 2692427 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Low volume at tops indicates a turn is near.  This will likely be wave 3 down - very punishing.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:04 | 2692463 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

"Wave 2 is, once again, close to completing. Today’s marginal move up continues to be supported by extremely low. This is a strong sign of a weakening trend. The MACD that broke the divergence pattern, has turned up, but with such continued low volume behind today’s move, wave 2 should be ending very soon – likely this week."

Maybe next week.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:13 | 2692493 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

It's not even a trader's market, anymore.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:14 | 2692496 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Man this would be some scary shit if I wasn't sure in my heart of hearts that the MASS ARRESTS, the death of the FED, and the repudiation of the debt were not all right around the corner...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 20:34 | 2692694 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Question is:

When do I plunk down a good bit of dough on some silver maples and an ounce of gold?

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 00:38 | 2693184 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture


Thu, 08/09/2012 - 20:38 | 2692703 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Treasury Ponzi.

It could go on forever.

Using $$$ from new Treasury sales to pay interest on old Treasury sales.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 23:25 | 2693022 chump666
chump666's picture

A rare non fudge by China:

July exports much lower than expected at plus 1.05 vs 8.0% expected

all about that oil price, they gotta knock it down.  USD bids are in, Asia sinking.  Aug correction will hit hard.

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