Stolper Alert: Goldman Says To Go Long EURUSD With 1.30 Target

Tyler Durden's picture

For months everyone was confused, like lost lambs in a sea of noise and 500x leverage, not knowing how to navigate the stormy, choppy FX seas. Now we know. For that beacon of anti-precision, the man, the myth, the legend who bats 0.000 and thus is the most certain contrarian bet in history, Goldman's Tom Stolper has spoken: "We would now recommend going long EUR/$ at current levels with a one-day
stop on a close below 1.18 for an initial target of 1.30
." Start your selling.

The announcement by the ECB today to prepare a reactivation of the SMP program but under the condition of a simultaneous EFSF/ESM program is another substantial step forward in terms of containment of the Euro area crisis.
From an FX standpoint we would emphasise the following:

  1. Using the unlimited ECB resources to anchor front-end rates has the potential to address one of the two key driving forces for the large EUR/$ decline of the last few months: the risk premium attached to sovereign bonds (or at least to parts of the sovereign curve).
  2. The insistence on strict conditionality will likely build support for this central bank action in countries with strong fiscal positions, in particular Germany. As Huw Pill and the European team pointed out, “from a normative perspective, the decisions announced today are reassuring,” given that the medium-term risks linked to moral hazard have been reduced. At the same time, Mr. Draghi insisted on the implementation of structural measures to sustain the Euro.
  3. The decision not to cut policy rates further implies that the downside
    stemming from the second key EUR/$ driving force (interest rate
    differentials) is limited at the moment.

Independent from this proposal on EFSF/ESM/SMP purchases of government bonds, the already announced centralisation of banking sector regulation under the authority of the ECB is an additional important positive step announced at the last summit and not yet reflected in the price.


For that reason we would now recommend going long EUR/$ at current levels with a one-day stop on a close below 1.18 for an initial target of 1.30. This trade is consistent with the recommendation of our fixed income strategy team to receive 5-year rates in the Euro area periphery (Spain, Ireland and Italy). Timing is the key risk to this trade as many hurdles remain and the exact details of the program will have to be agreed on. Markets may remain volatile as investors wait for Euro-area policymakers to back words with action.

Thank you Tom: we were lost but now we see.

PS. For those confused, this means Goldman is now selling EURUSD to muppets.

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Lohn Jocke's picture


I'm long Dunder Mifflin with all the paper the Fed is going to need to get us to 1.3...

Comay Mierda's picture

technical target = 1.16 based on breakout of bear flag on weekly chart.

confirmed by price target on point and figure chart$xeu,P

they will sell into you the whole way down

the muppet slayers are at it again

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Is the verb "stolper" found in the Urban Dictionary ?

If it is not an entry, it should be.

"Man, did you see that guy who went long the euro at 1.21 ? He can barely squat on the curb and cry, he's in so much pain. Dude definitely got stolpered hard."

schatzi's picture

you will find the name in a German dictionary and it is very funny and apt: stolper means to flounder, to stumble or trip.

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Touche -- leave it to Goldman to hire such an "ironic" figure.


AldousHuxley's picture

look back further:


1.3 only looks good when you go back only 6 years.

Historical lows are at 0.9


USD      Average

1998    1.0
1999    1.0
2000    0.9
2001    0.9
2002    1.0
2003    1.2
2004    1.3
2005    1.2
2006    1.3
2007    1.5
2008    1.4
2009    1.4
2010    1.4
2011    1.3
2012    1.2

LowProfile's picture

I'm thinking 0.1258 before it reverses.

If that doesn't hold, then 0.116 seems reasonable, with more room to tank.

Stoploss's picture

Judging by the hammer handle on the dxy, 84.50 is going to be hard to hold.

strannick's picture

As for contrarian 0.00 batters my man Johnny 'Noodles' Nadler will go toe to toe with Stopler any day There can be only one.

vast-dom's picture



GS "sorrry we had to close our positions, sorry about your muppet limp, we did our best for you [chortle chortle]."

Sofa King's picture

This is what pops in my head anytime I hear a recommendation from GS.

awakening's picture

To point out the obvious irony, congrats for finding the pic on a server belonging to FB.

acompletedouche's picture

Spit out my coffee,that was funny shit......

Biosci's picture

goddammit, i just sold my GLD puts.

Ned Zeppelin's picture

Coordinated propaganda. It is now a certainty that the Euro is going lower.

bdc63's picture

If by "lower" you mean to zero, well then, yeah ...

TheSilverJournal's picture

You forgot that it's being measured against the dollar. After this coming three week rally in the dollar, the dollar is then going to fall off a cliff.

malikai's picture

Buy that shit, muppets!

Meanwhile, look out below:

blindfaith's picture

This is truly astonishing. Can there really be any dummies with 100K to give away on this advice?

malikai's picture

Apparently OPM has infinite wealth and trust. Thus, Goldman is #1!

It can't last forever.

Neethgie's picture

LOL, great intro, was perfect.

bdc63's picture

Blue Horseshit says buy euros ...

Jlmadyson's picture


Hell to the no!

Al Huxley's picture

Wow, it seems so counter-intuitive, since this appears on the SURFACE to be obviously bad advice based on the situation in Europe, and almost certainly IS bad advice, based on Stolper's record, so who are they going to trap?  Or is it the old 'reverse-reverse-reverse psychology trick - it looks like bad advice so it must be good advice, but everybody knows Stolper only gives bad advice, but since everybody knows that, he's setting up all those who now habitually fade him...  fuck it, I've confused myself now.

bdc63's picture

don't overthink this ... just sell

hedgeless_horseman's picture



don't overthink this ... just sell run algo

Paul Atreides's picture

Anyone still in this shithole of a market is just asking for it either way....

blindfaith's picture

MEMO:  tell my retirement fund manager that he should sell.  Or, it is buy...that either way thing confused me.

tarsubil's picture

The trick is that both goblets are poisoned.

fahmahbob's picture

"All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right... and who is dead."

-Princess Bride

lizzy36's picture

Double reverse with a penis touch, John Travolta style....duh ;)

disabledvet's picture

What was the story again?

tradewithdave's picture

You said exactly what I was thinking. The double reverse. In football you can use it once a decade.

Clever Name's picture

"You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work."

agent default's picture

Is 1.30 EUR/USD or USD/EUR?  I am confused with this guy.

markar's picture

I've never traded currencies. What's the best way to short the Euro based on this?

kito's picture

etf is fine. try EUO. leveraged short euro

jvetter713's picture

Does EUO have the inverse?  It's always better to short the bull than long the least for the leveraged ones.

DeadFred's picture

I like puts on FXE if you can do options. Goldman is doing the world a service on this one, anyone who follows this advice shouldn't be allowed to possess money.

Arius's picture

always doing God's work ....

lord blankfein's interpretation: to separate fools from their hard earned cash