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Stolpered
Because no day can be truly complete without a brief comic interlude by everyone's favorite FX strategist...
Close short TRY/BRL recommendation as FX policy diverged from our expectations
On 19 March 2012, we introduced a short TRY/BRL recommendation on the back of two key arguments:
- In our view, the policy mix in the Turkish economy was conducive to sustained imbalances, which increased the downside risks for the Lira.
- The market had overreacted to recent policy announcements in Brazil aimed at arresting currency appreciation.
Since then, CBRT policy has been less accommodative than we expected, partly to stabilise the currency, and the data has surprised to show a moderate improvement in local imbalances. BRL has continued to trade a lot softer than we anticipated mostly due to FX policy intervention and despite less dovish BACEN communication.
As a result, we would recommend clients close short TRY/BRL positions with a potential loss of 3.1% including carry.
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Goldman must love this guy. He keeps fleecing the muppets and they come back for more. Talk about Stockholm syndrome.
"Thank you Sir. May I have another?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ
Interesting that the only losers are the ones who make some bad and some good calls. If you're 90% the right way OR 90% the wrong way, you're a boon for someone.
I think of it more like beaten wife syndrome - "but he says he loves me....."
Hit me baby one more time.
This guy is a fucking joke
Stolper is the Jim Henson of Government Sachs: the master of the Muppets.
Where the hell does he come up with these pairs?
Seriously, what is the logic in that cross? Completely unrelated geographies, markets, and exports.
Simple .... mo crosses mo mooula
Seriously, what is the logic in that cross?
Simple - it helped to unload something stupid his bosses owned!
Those ducks ought to be naked and shivering by now. LOL!
Buy high... sell low...
Has anyone here actually made an account that opens anti-Stolper positions?
I'd like to see the returns/risk on the anti-Stolper position.
You can't do better than 100% accuracy. And boy is Stolper accurate.
100% of the time, Stolper works all the time.
Stolper!
...and behind the scenes at Goldman, Stolper's bonus just went up.
After all, he is Executive Director - Muppet Fleecing Operations at Goldman-Sachs.
Arbacht mach frei.
Arbitrage Macht Frei. But seriously, TRY/BRL? "Diverged from expectations"? Gotta remember that, would sound good in almost any situation.
It would be so awesome to be able to be a complete and total fuck up and get paid well for being one.
Yeah cos's he's the fuck up, not the people taking his advice. You really really think it's unintentional?
I think that if you are wrong ALL of the time you lose all credibility. Nobody is following this guys advice anymore, nobody.
2010 From T. Stolper - The performance of our FX top trades this year has been unsatisfactory.
2011 From T. Stolper - The performance of our FX top trades this year and last year has been unsatisfactory.
2012 From T. Stolper - The performance of our FX top trades this year and umm...err ... Screw it. Just take my counter position and you will make money.
Most consistent track record of any strategist...
Perhaps he left out the "/s" at end of the post.
Herr Stolper's Mannic Muppet Motto:
'Blind 'em with bullshit'
The muppets thank you.
He should work for the weather bureau, he would fit right in.
How large a position can one take in the TRY/ BRL cross including the carry (forwards mkt)?
$10MM max ? cannot be a terribly liquid market, why woulod Stolper even be concernec about this cross rate?
Must be a case of watch the right hand when the left hand is talking to you.
Only problem with this call was my trading platform didn't offer this trade :( stick to EURUSD Stolper!
maybe The Squid banished him to TRY/BRL because even "When" [not if] he lost money it wouldn't be very much given the liquidity in the pair. Question is, who is on the other side of the muppets? Any bets it's the prop desk; after all, we got a bonus pool to build here.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
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