Stone McCarthy: "You Don't Get Three Months Of Negative Empire Survey Results Unless You Are In A Recession"

Tyler Durden's picture

Forgive us while we take another quick and gratuitous look at today's disastrous Empire Index, but we wanted to bring a very important point highlighted by Stone McCarthy: "You usually don't get three straight months of negative results unless you are in a recession (Note: NY Fed historical data only started in July 2001)." SMRA continues: "If that's not bad enough for you, the forward-looking new orders index fell to -7.8 in August, after posting -5.5 in July and -3.6 in June. Not only is the latest reading a new low in the recent string of negative results, it's also the third straight month of contraction." In other words when the NBER finally sits down to look at the disaster that the US economy has been over the past several years, the start of the next re-recession will likely be given as June 2011, oddly enough in a year when every sell side bank predicted that the economy would grow by at least 3.5% by Q4. As for what to expect next, look for the Philly Fed to be the next major leading indicator disappointment, which based on the NY Fed result, will miss Wall Street expectations of a +2.0% increase yet once gain, and which SMRA believes will drop from 3.2 in July to -3.4 in August.

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Spitzer's picture

Under shadow stats inflation, we never got out of recession.

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Indeed.  Certainly the recession in employment never ended.  Economic stats are all about political rhetoric and double-speak in this day and age.

The "Fall" Is Approaching

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just in time for Jackson Asshole 2011.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

It would be nice to see some hard market dives before QE is announced again. Call it foreplay.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Is that where The Bernank claims that the anal lube he's peddling is NOT inflating in price fast enough just before the Central Banksters whip it out and absolutely sodomize Americans & the World's Citizenry?

The Bernank is a true master in the dark art of currency debasement.

I do hope that they add his face to Mount Rushmoore (he's not an American President, but let us make an exception). Tourists could even flock there if they did add his likeness, and they could toss hundred dollar FRNs off his face as they make wishes for more purchasing power.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I just love good sarcasm for lunch. In fact it goes down well any time of the day. :)

buzzsaw99's picture

People will shit on bernaked's grave.

SheepDog-One's picture

Going into Jacksons Kornhole with +200 DOW days? Ok...

Worker Bee's picture

Yea but Japanese GDP wasnt as bad as expected! Rally on !!

Id fight Gandhi's picture

This time it's different!

oogs66's picture

the algo's missed the minus sign?

Ident 7777 economy's picture

That's what squaring a result somewhere along the line does for ya ...

BlackholeDivestment's picture Jackson Hole was a nice affordable place to live, not so many years ago, like 25 30 and back lol.

Boilermaker's picture

When was the last time reality had anything to do with the equities fraud?

AdahPrice's picture

"The Great Recovery".   :^)

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

This is the new government propaganda of timing statistics to perpetually make things look just bad enough to keep a lid on the populace while corporate profits soar. The unbelievers of American capitalism will be punished in the marketplace while the true believers, who's religious fervor teaches lies told in the name of good are divine, go forth an prosper.  

The lowest gas price in America today is in Yuma, Arizona, a city in the middle of the desert with the closet refinery in over-regulated California.

The most expense gas on the mainland is in Chicago.

Even the price of gas is secretly manipulated to boost lagging local economies and temper overheated ones as the greatest boon to the technological efficiency explosion is to regulate human activity.  

alex_g's picture

16 cents cheaper in Tucson, AZ

libertarian_neocon's picture

Also, the deterioration in the Empire Manufacturing Index over the last six months is the largest in 10 years.  So the economy is not only starting to contract, it's doing so at an alarming rate.


zorba THE GREEK's picture

According to a vast majority of people I have talk to, the last recession never ended.


BandGap's picture

What's with all the negative waves man?  Why can't you just see the beauty, appreciate the righteousness of it all and bask in the hope that things will be better.

You come into the world with nothing, you leave with nothing.

Give a whistle.

Ident 7777 economy's picture

Prefer "have a little faith baby - have a little faith" and "why with all the nagative waves" from Kelly's Heros (Oddball - Negative Waves scene):



marcusfenix's picture

wtf is holding the markets up right now? skynet trading software, hopeium and eurobond purchases aside, how are they able to levitate through this and another inevitable GDP downgrade? I realize the central planners run a good game, but it's gotten to the point where there is nothing left of the economy for the PTB's to centrally plan...

SheepDog-One's picture

I dont know, probably at this point it requires only about $50 from TBTP to levitate the DOW +200...but it is REAL stupid. This market, country, world, is nothing but a real bad movie at this point.

Village Smithy's picture

ZIRP drives them up anytime there is an absence of imminent disaster.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

The levitation is via correlators.  The computers watch the Euro as the heaviest weighted contributor to the corporate profit predictor.

Why?  Because dollar denominated earnings result from Euro denominated sales.  Europeans buy US multinational company goods and pay Euros for them.  With a Euro surge vs the USD, it looks like big earnings.

Big earnings from the predictor, asks the algo.  Then buy.

WonderDawg's picture

At the risk of being derided for mentioning EWP, this little rally is true to form. There will be more volatility, but the trend is down. This is a small fourth wave, to be followed by another wave down, to be followed by another fervent rally, to be followed by a devastating sell-off. Now that the market has finally reversed on a large scale, the wave pattern should take on a more predictable form.

quasimodo's picture

Anyone else here curious just when this bitch is going to blow sky high? I am sick to death of this gray area, not knowing what the hell is coming down the pipe. I know it's going to get ugly, but where I live(midwest-corn belt) things never got bad during the '08 crash, in fact stuff pretty much went on as normal, and continue to do so. Housing never really dipped here, and new homes continue to go up, along with other business and farm related structures. Here I sit wondering if I am nuts for looking at moving to another home, thinking the bottom will fall out any day now. 

I realize current conditons are fragile at best, and when someone farts the markets react. That said, does anyone here know if there is any kind of a past yardstick that tells us if some areas will fare better than others, should things REALLY crap? My wife thinks I am a nutjob for having a paltry three month supply of food and can't seem to grasp the fact that we are doomed at some point.

sigh....dazed and confused.

JohnG's picture

The dramatic rise of civil unrest is my yardstick.  It is dramatic but given the MSM censorship it is covered up.  We'll see rioting that can't be covered up.  Right here in our streets.

Just look around.  Les and less "calmness." Road rage, people fight ofver placed in line at the store, other signs of general dissatisfaction, fear, uncertainty.

This will continue to worsen until it breaks.

gookempucky's picture

+ 1......kinda quietly bizarrrrrro....looks like this recovery didnt include home improvement...Lowes.

Time to short.

Caveman93's picture

"You usually don't get three straight months of negative results unless you are in a recession ...


So this is just a lagging indicator correct?

BandGap's picture

This is a lagging indicator. Statistically this indicator is not only not meeting the a somewhat arbitrary control limit, but is nosediving.  It's the constant downward trend that should alarm more than anything else.

Just accept the fact that it is going to blow up and plan accordingly.  Long ago I gave up any hope of knowing exactly when or what event would trigger the collapse. It is a comfort to just accept what will be and watch  the show.

And give a whistle.

Tense INDIAN's picture

nifty should move up now...but upside is capped and not much ...::

TideFighter's picture

Everyday I see TimBoy G and PrintBithez top the high score for Mario Bros. Just like every game, there is always an ending.


Racer's picture

More signs of the real ity part of the USA is falling apart, so BTFD and rally to the skies

SheepDog-One's picture

Stone McCarthy to be found dead in his jacuzzi due to multiple self inflicted stab wounds to his back in 3......2......

thunderchief's picture

Well, Lybia, Afghanistan, Iraq, BP gulf oil spill, Fukashima ETC....are no longer news.

So I don't think a rolling economic distaster and all the graff corruption that goes with it will be that hard to stop reporting on either.  

Robslob's picture

Every negative indicator is suddenly confirmation bias for more QE by the Fed.

gwar5's picture

We're in recession alright. I don't think we ever came out. You can feel it, too.

The real rate of inflation has been outpacing GDP by a wide margin.  


janus's picture

i realize that i'm nuts, but i cannot escape the conclusion that sentiment seems to drive fundamentals...i also realize that's a big and bold statement, so someone please shut it down.  it seems counterintuitive and cart-before-the-horsish; even so, i guess it comports nicely with the bathos of financial markets.

Slap That Taco's picture

Thanks to the efforts of our supreme leaders, all this could be true and yet we could see record stock market, gold, and bond prices.

The free market is officially dead, the dollar will follow slowly-remember the other fiat currencies have to fail too.  

Anybody having children today should apply the following formula:

One child per $1,000,000 of income. I'm not kidding.

Don't be stupid, all of you who are 20-30 somethings and think you want kids. Do the math.  That's my advice.

gunsmoke011's picture

Must be why the market is up 180 -- another recession has clearly been priced in - and there is nowhere to go but up from here. The market - being a foward looking guage of economic activity - is just pricing in the soon to come recovery.

Slap That Taco's picture

Wow, I didn't realize Larry Kudlow posted here.

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Industrial Production for July out at 9:15 EST tomorrow.

A big market moving number not mentioned by Fin News Networks today. 

After .9% in June expectation is for .5% in July so a reduction to .7% will beat expectations even though it is a reduction from June. 

See, it's not hard to plan an economy by manipulating data. 

Ponzi Unit's picture

Hey, can anyone please supply the link to the ENGDAHL piece on Rockefeller, oil, empire, and global finance?

Buck Johnson's picture

This whole game will end, trust me.  We are in a depression (a depression is a real bad recession), period.  They have known this but can't say the words, because if they say it's a depression then people will be looking for individuals to blame and they can't have that.

Ungaro's picture

In Art Cashin's inimitable words: "With recoveries like this, who needs a recession?"