A Strategic Alpha Preview Of 2012: Hope And Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture

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JPM Hater001's picture

So I gather you think things are in trouble...

I'll buy that for a dollar.

PAPA ROACH's picture

And that's about all a dollar buys these days too...


GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

My trust in the monetary system has gone.  It has been destroyed by the manipulation of the market, the unsustainability of the debt, and the unwillingness of the powerful in society to see the need for change.

My investment stratagey revolves around building a business that is able to function independent of the monetary system, dealing in real goods that I can supply and in return recieve something of equal value.  Money is not and has never been a commodity, and has no worth, except that which we choose to give it.  Money can do no work, where then did we get the idea that money can make money?  Money is a measure and is only useful to quantify the value of labour and resources.

Simply put:- "Looking at current developments on many fronts.  The world will never again recover, because amongst the powerful of society morals, ethics and standards don't prevail"

Oh regional Indian's picture

Giant Sq, you are correct. This paradigm is finished.

humpty has been dumptied and putting cracked eggshells together is not a skill currently possessed.

And WHY is everyone saying hope? Bad programming and worse dependence.




I think I need to buy a gun's picture

over, game over,,,,,paper gold has broken 3 year and 10 year trendlines,,,,,,,,,,as they use the straight of homeruez and iran as the reason for the coming higher oil prices,,,,,,,,,,,

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That would be my guess as well L-J-S.  + 1


I do not think that the core of our problems (debts and deficits from many corners) is being addressed by anyone.  To get our national .gov deficit down (currently 1.5 trillion give or take) would require MASSIVE cuts, real cuts.  I think we can do it!  But, there will ferocious resistance from those feeding at th trough of .gov.

Further, at all levels (including individual households) we must cut our spending and debts.  Looks like that is happening.

2012 is going to be a very bumpy year...  Get prepared!

tarsubil's picture

What you describe is a heroin addict that doesn't eat anymore and is losing weight. There is nothing good about this situation. Take a look outside. Things are falling apart as we speak.

SAT 800's picture

I love rolling element bearings. I just finished a job designing a 7 cylinder radial engine; all standard ball and roller bearings. Roller bearing on the crank pin no inner cage, runs on the crank pin. It's gonna be great! Just don't make any bumpy rollers, ok?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

 Some people call me Mau-rice! 'Cause I speak with a pompitous of love...


El Viejo's picture

Revealing your age there Steve.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Or musical tastes maybe? I'll remind you sir, I'm an owner of the (3rd generation) iPod.

Have you read some of my other work here? Cause, it's pretty juvenile...

El Viejo's picture


Yup this place brings out my second childhood also, mostly when doing battle with Tech Ticker refugees.

Thinkin about one of those cell phones with the big numbers. I get enough of technology at work.

fonzanoon's picture

"Gold will break away from being pressured by a strong Dollar as the hunt for alternatives to Fiat currency explode. The likes of the AUD will fall steeply as the global growth story rolls over as we have suggested for a long time".

Would'nt the AUD actually hold up due to the fact that it is actually a currency that could be backed by gold?

SAT 800's picture

Don't take it seriously. There are no FX gurus. None. Australia has a LOT going for it; There's no particular reason to pay any attention to this prediction.

lolmao500's picture

Uh oh :

Saudi Arabia says will produce more oil of Iran supply cut (Haaretz)

And in the LOL and truth department :

Russia Slams US for Its Human Rights Record
El Viejo's picture


I guess they'll point out that Stalin was a Ukranian.


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Dzhugashvili (sp?, but about right) was from Georgia.

El Viejo's picture

Oh yeah, sorry I confused his birthplace with his victims:


He starved millions of Ukrainians out of revenge for their nationalistic stance during the 'great' revolution of 1917. Hated his own mother.

earleflorida's picture

the mad,... made out of steel , 'Georgian Man', killed Lenin, Trotsky, an a mere 20ml just to prove a point

talk about, 'paranoia striking deep - into the heart it creeps' -- 'unknown' quote from 60's song    

SAT 800's picture

20 million Ukrainians are now furious with you. But we forgive you.

fonzanoon's picture


Bob Pisani just said something worthwhile.

So much for the carry trade: the amount of money European banks are depositing at the ECB keeps going up: 347 billion Friday, 411 billion Monday, 452 billion today, another record. These deposits earn 0.25 percent, well below the 4-5 percent they could earn by buying sovereign bonds. IN other words, banks borrowed 489 billion euros from the ECB last week, paid 1 percent interest, and are now parking it with the ECB and getting 0.25 percent interest. They are LOSING 0.75 percent on their investment

CvlDobd's picture


You would have known that by reading most articles here for the past few days. Why watch CNBC?

fonzanoon's picture

I did know it. I am looking eagerly for the point in time when the average shmuck who watches cnbc starts learning what has been said here forever. To me that is when the rubber meets the road and it gets interesting.

CvlDobd's picture

Fair enough.

Schmucks never get it though. Until ZH is visited as frequently as FB they never will.

gatorengineer's picture

Rumor has it there will be a fire sale on greek islands in the first quarter.....

Or perhaps they are waiting to jump on the Italian long bond auction tomorrow......


steve from virginia's picture

This is classic liquidity trap, seen ... everywhere. Certainly in US where liquidity heads straight to Fed accounts as reserves.

CBs keep repeating same dumb experiment over and over expecting different results.

ECB needs to put these funds back into circulation ... it's their job, what central banks do! If they feel 'uncomfortable' doing so directly they should charge banks to keep funds in reserve.

The commercial banks won't improve their balance sheets until they start making good loans. Don't tell me there is NOTHING in the Eurozone with a worthwhile return?

SAT 800's picture

Problem there; been reported that the GOOD customers, major industrials are closing their accounts and moving their business to, other places. Scandnavia and Brasil have been mentioned as well as Canada.

slewie the pi-rat's picture


balzac on hope:

When a man crushed by misfortune is once able to make the fiction of a hope for himself by a series of arguments, more or less reasonable, with which he bolsters himself up to rest his head, it often happens that he is really saved. Many a man has derived energy from the confidence born of illusions. Possibly, hope is the better half of courage; indeed, the Catholic religion makes it a virtue. Hope! has it not sustained the weak, and given the fainting heart time and patience to await the chances and changes of life? Cesar resolved to confide his situation to his wife's uncle before seeking for succor elsewhere. But as he walked down the Rue Saint-Honore towards the Rue des Bourdonnais, he endured an inward anguish and distress which shook him so violently that he fancied his health was giving way. His bowels seemed on fire. It is an established fact that persons who feel through their diaphragms suffer in those parts when overtaken by misfortune, just as others whose perceptions are in their heads suffer from cerebral pains and affections. In great crises, the physical powers are attacked at the point where the individual temperament has placed the vital spark. Feeble beings have the colic. Napoleon slept. Before assailing the confidence of a life-long friendship, and breaking down all the barriers of pride and self-assurance, an honorable man must needs feel in his heart--and feel it more than once--the spur of that cruel rider, necessity. Thus it happened that Birotteau had been goaded for two days before he could bring himself to seek his uncle; it was, indeed, only family reasons which finally decided him to do so. In any state of the case, it was his duty to explain his position to the severe old ironmonger, his wife's uncle. Nevertheless, as he reached the house he felt that inward faintness which a child feels when taken to a dentist's; but this shrinking of the heart involved the whole of his life, past, present, and to come,--it was not the fugitive pain of a moment. He went slowly up the stairs.

Cesar Birotteau PtII, ChI, last para

SheepDog-One's picture

'Hope' is what losers do.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+1 SheepDog



Merciless comment, but quite correct.  It is up to each of us to do what is necessary to protect ourselves and our families.  Sitting around and hoping ain't gonna cut.  And look how well "Hope and Change" has worked out.  If the O is re-elected, what does THAT say about all that hope 'n' change?

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+2 Sheepdog and DCRB, doing is what doers do...unfortunately, do nothing seem to be the mantra of most...including the politicians and sheepie...

vast-dom's picture

Futurized beggary! Fuck Hope. Hope don't make much change. Things done changed and hope only made it worse.

SAT 800's picture

I believe that's a George Carlin quote; "Fuck Hope"; one of my favorite people.

LouisDega's picture

Anti Andy Dufresne fan club BITCHEZZZZ

bania's picture

I'm calling 2012 "The Year of the Hoarder", as in PM hoarding.

PM's are going to get kicked down all year long, may as well accumulate.

cossack55's picture


Then I am calling 2011 "The Year of the Whore", as in CB whores, Primary Dealer whores (and their employees, political whores).

tahoebumsmith's picture

Riddle me this Batman? How will piling more debt onto a debt crisis solve anything especially given the fact that the ability to pay such debt back is shrinking? You see nothing has been solved since the financial crisis began, just a cover up to buy more time before the inevitable...

wandstrasse's picture

Sure it makes no sense, but more debt is the only way to keep the world turning, because each and every $ or € is born as somebody's debt and to pay interest there must be more money loaned into existence... IT IS A PONZI SCHEME my friend. Our monetary system is exactly the same what Charles Ponzi, Bernie Cornfeld or Bernie Maddoff did. The difference is that the crooks managed to own all governments on the planet and that they will never get caught.

gatorengineer's picture

One word hyperinflation...........  Knock a zero off the bill including the entitlements.... Get it now?

gatorengineer's picture

One word hyperinflation...........  Knock a zero off the bill including the entitlements.... Get it now?

NEOSERF's picture

Don't have the facts to back it up but my guess is that after the war, government spending albeit perhaps inefficiently in places, was building roads, subsidizing airlines, building power plants and generally protecting business so $1 spent might have had a multiplier or a reasonable ROI in a reasonable timeframe after the spend.  Now after spending 30 years forward (through bond issuance), we find ourselves with too much general infrastructure, a shrinking workforce to pay for it and have pushed many industries to their physical net positive limits.  Communications, airlines, healthcare, education...yes they could be improved but only with massive government inflows continuing and allowing for 10 years of losses or with the idea it will never pay back...would bet that 96% of government spending does not generate positive returns and even when they try to do good and subsidize solar, they get burned (or should I say we)...way too easy today for Congress to spend the house's money...it needs to stop and I fear it is already too late as we are adding $1T+ to the deficit every year to sustain an unsustainable way of life in all "developed countries".

fiftybagger's picture

Silver For The People Blog and YT channel are BLOWING UP

Calling all Silverbugs - check it out



SAT 800's picture

I don't usually like these internet blogs; but I liked this one because the guy is talking professional level sense about the market structure. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if today was about it for the bottom in Silver. Bearing in mind that the metals markets love double bottoms; a repeat of todays low is certainly possible, but I think the NYMEX folks pretty much accomplished their goals today.

MrBoompi's picture

I always wonder about people who refuse to admit past economic deregulation caused so many of our current economic problems, while at the same time warning us of "over regulation" as part of a solution.

I see no reason why we can't overturn the Commodity Futures Modernization Act or reinstating Glass-Steagal NOW.  Surely if you are infected by a parasite the first step is to remove the parasite.  Then again, if you are the parasite and you make the laws, I'm sure doing nothing is a great remedy.



Dr. Engali's picture

Deregulation?  Do you really and trully believe that there has been any deregulation? The problem is and always has been the federal reserve and the moral hazard it brings with it. Had they not started bailing out companies such as Long Term Capital Management we wouldn't be in this mess. LTCM should have been allowed to fail. Instead the message was" take on more risk we the fed will back you up". Deregulation....that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. This is the most regulated industry out there....unless you're deemed to big to fail. Then regulation doesn't mean shit.

rosiescenario's picture

The SEC gives the appearance that there is regulation.....we would be better off without them....People need to assume they are about to be screwed and do their own dd on investments.