Strong Durable Goods Headline Number, Very Weak Between The Lines: "Weak Start To 3Q" Bloomberg's Yamarone

Tyler Durden's picture

Once again we get a strong durable goods numbers report at the headline level, but far weaker when one actually reads it instead of just scanning it: with the July Durable goods printing well above expectations, at 4.0%, double expectations of 2.0%, and up from an upwardly revised -1.3%. Ex-transportation, the number was up 0.7%, beating the estimate of -0.5%, virtually unchanged with the previous upwardly revised 0.6%. What is, however, not good is that cap goods non-defense ex aircraft dropped by -1.5%, in line expectations, and a plunge from an upward revised 0.6%: this shows that actual CapEx is plunging. The bulk of the beat comes due to stronger than expected automotive-related production. Futures surge on the news because a continent wide liquidity squeeze is less important than the future channel stuffing of more unsellable cars.

Report sumary from Bloomberg:

  • July durable goods orders rose 0.4% vs est. 2% (range 1% drop to 7.5% gain); June revised to 1.3% drop from 2.1% decline.
  • Ex. transport rose 0.7% vs est. 0.5% drop (range 1.5% decline to 1% rise); prior revised to 0.6% gain from 0.1%
  • Capital goods orders, nondefense, ex. aircraft, parts, down 1.5% vs est. 1.6% decline (range 2.4% drop to 1% increase); prior revised to 0.6% gain from 0.4% drop
  • Weak shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft “suggests weak start to 3Q,” says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • Above est. overall orders due to 43.4% rise in civilian aircraft, motor vehicles orders, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Key question: whether demand for autos will continue through rest of the year given weak macroeconomic environment: Brusuelas

Answer: hell no

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Aductor's picture

So this is bullish QE3, or how do I read the equity "market"?

SheepDog-One's picture

+300 - +500 daily gains on the Dow....WHAT QE3? At this rate, the markets will be back over their all-time record highs in a few days, yet traders sit out there expecting Bernank to drop free bags of money to the 'poor ol equities'...for what reason?

slaughterer's picture

It does not matter where equity markets are when the print button is pushed.   

FEDbuster's picture

Price everything in gold.  Zimbabwe stock exchange (yes there is one) had 200%+ up days during it's hyperinflation, we will have ours, too.

buzzsaw99's picture

good news is bad news, except if it is really bad news then that makes it good news. Got it? RALLY ON!

HelluvaEngineer's picture

The algos seem to love it!

Boilermaker's picture

Futures soar back to parity.  MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

DeadFred's picture

Hurrah for Government Motors! They saved us.

Iriestx's picture

Boom!  +500 today or bust!

rubearish10's picture

The Bernanke will look the stuffing data to help justify his magic words on Friday. Seems like that's the direction we're going. Yesterday's housing and RF numbers (bad), today good, but really bad. So, free it up bitchez. I mean Gold Bitchez, opportunity knocks!

HelluvaEngineer's picture must be buying cars and crashing them into each other

SheepDog-One's picture

They are, down in the beltway there are all new GM gov vehicles everywhere, I think .gov is buying as many as they can and giving them to the homeless at this point. Everywhere I look are new GM vehicles with a gov sticker on the door.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

They will need quite a few more when the weekly Census begins

FEDbuster's picture

Maybe Sec. 8 housing should be expanded to provide a car with your free home?  So, you can get "FREE" house, utilities, car, health care, food stamps, cell phone, college education.  The only thing missing was a program to provide free clothing and gasoline (or maybe I just haven't heard of them?).  All of this provided by Uncle Suger from Obama's stash. 

RockyRacoon's picture

Wait til the dealers and GM come to the realization that cars in the pipeline are sunk costs.   Let the discounts begin!

Larry Darrell's picture

Their economic guru Krugman has told them this is the best way to create demand.


That or they need to increase the power of HAARP since it didn't provide enough damage yesterday to stimulate massive re-building.

jkruffin's picture

Awww,  Now Bernanke can't announce his QE3,  say goodnight to stocks and Euro as they plunge into the abyss...

MoneyWise's picture

Catch your Gold below, pumpers.. :)

After all you should be happy to get it cheaper.

slaughterer's picture

the unicorn today is shitting gold and silver and riding on an iPad

MoneyWise's picture

Don't need no QE3, too much liquidity already,
FED has lots of other options on the table,
perhaps intervene (stimulate) Housing market.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Do you enjoy seeing what's happening to our country due to fiscal and monetary policy?

SheepDog-One's picture

No, I dont enjoy seeing the country destroyed on purpose at all! But no one will or has listened anyway since start of TARP, everyone said it was great and would work. But now Im supposed to feel GUILTY or something? Hey I was the one warning about it all along.

centerline's picture

Stimulate the housing market?  You mean QE3 disguised as a bailout for main street.  LOL.

RobotTrader's picture



Wow, gold and silver getting destroyed again.

Amazing how paper rules over physical once again.

WineSorbet's picture

C'mon Robo, as our resident contrarian, you are getting pretty monotonous with your comments.

John Law Lives's picture

Robo hasn't had anything original to say in a long time.  After he stopped posting the nice photos, his posts became bland.  If ZH had an ignore button, Robo would fade away.

SheepDog-One's picture

Paper whore unicorn boy back again....still a bit short of your 'Im all in long here at DOW 12,700 for the 'debt ceiling passage' massive rally' though.

slaughterer's picture

SH-1, again, you rub Robo's nose in his one fatal call.  It's ok, because we know it is your way of showing your love and admiration for Robo. 

SheepDog-One's picture

ONE 'fatal call'? LOL I can name 50 others easily from his pool of momo picks that have fallen flat! This is just the most recent!

RockyRacoon's picture

Let's hope this call is actually fatal.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Gold down 0.5%.  "Destruction"

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Yeah... and we miss the hot chick photos that you used to post...

firstdivision's picture

Which leads me to believe that QE3 is not happening, but buy the dips anyway.

e_goldstein's picture

No biggie. The price of silver and gold always goes down before options expire and the bernank gets on its podium. If one can find PM's, it's probably a hell of a buying opportunity.

props2009's picture

Gold shorts hit their first target 1830. Check premium trade from yesterday "short Gold 1888 target 1820-30 stop 1913".

slaughterer's picture

Having a leveraged gold short on during a $100 drop is doing wonders for my paper portfolio.  

RockyRacoon's picture

Ah, the magic word: "Paper"  Don't you know you can't eat paper?

youngman's picture

GM should jump to its IPO price right.......
Gold is still a good buy....high or low...look at Europe...
its going to be very quiet this week...they have to have ti very MSM will dig deep into anything......

DefiantSurf's picture

More irrational markets, screw this crap, I'm going to play Socom, can somebody text me when its over?


WineSorbet's picture

No QE3 for you!  Come back, one year.

SheepDog-One's picture

Ben's got himself so cornered, its ridiculous.

On the one hand, every bit of horrible economic news since January has been met with 'bullish for QE3 $2.5 trillion minimum' rally bad news.

On the other hand, now way can Ben let markets tumble now for QE3 fear and panic creation, because any huge drops would set off world wide chain reactions...out of control in a minute.

So markets have baked in a couple trillion QE, and it wont be delivered Friday, no way. Enjoy holding paper over the weekend when the algos fry.

John Law Lives's picture

Also keep in mind that Bernanke surely wants to be reappointed.  He just had 3 voting members vote against him re. extending near-ZIRP through 2013.  If he proposes a huge QE3 and creates more dissent, he is hanging himself out to dry.

I don't believe a massive QE3 (in the form of large scale asset purchases) will happen just yet.  We would need a bigger market collapse to generate enough public support for another major round of LSAP.  Another LSAP = surging food and energy prices - which are political killers.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Options expiry tomorrow plus Ben talks on Friday...

What is happening in the paper PMs markets is exactly what I expected to happen given the 2 events above...

Monday PMs soar again, shorts get creamed... buying opportunity now...

slaughterer's picture

Don't you think gold shorts are smart enough to cover before Monday? 

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Some will, some won't...

If all did the same thing what use would mkts be? If all bet the same horse why would we have horse races?

MoneyWise's picture

What shorts? You think it's a wise Idea to take profit
after 20% run in just 2 weeks?
That's what it is,
besides Big guys need to make money, so they'll trim
positions and take profits, then re-enter lower.

slaughterer's picture

Yes, I think it is wise, I took profits, and I take profits on them taking profits as well. 

RockyRacoon's picture

Paper Trading.   You all deserve what you get.

John Law Lives's picture

So much fun.  The markets surge yesterday on the heels of dismal economic data.  Today, the futures surge on "good" economic data.

Battle Bots: A market out of control.