Student Debt Bubble Delinquencies Surge

Tyler Durden's picture

By now, the bubble in student loans is becoming more widely understood. The absolute level continues to rise significantly and growth is accelerating with 8% YoY growth just reported, via the WSJ. Of course the reasons are anathema but attending college on the back of hope of a better-paying job when everyone else is also attending college in that hope (thanks to endless student-loan funding from your helpful government) seems to be self-defeating as the supply of supposedly better-qualified workers into a stagnant economy will do nothing but reduce higher-end wages further? Of course this is over-simplified but as the rest of the country delevers, pays down credit cards, or BKs, those that remain jobless heading to college for a way out are now struggling also - as is clear from WaPo this last weekend where dropout rates are increasingly dramatically. What is more worrisome is that while every other class of debt, according to the New York Fed's data, is seeing delinquency rates dropping, Student Loans 90+ days delinquent surged in Q1 to 8.7% - near its peak crisis highs and remains above peak mortgage delinquency rates.

Student Loan Debt is growing while the rest of the household sector is delevering...

But pressures from repayments and the debt overhang causing dropout rates to soar...

but even as the supposedly better-educated leave college, jobs are few and far between and delinquency rates are surging - even as every other form of household debt sees lower delinquency rates...

and from the NY Fed:

The New York Fed also released historical student loans figures, by quarter, dating back to the first quarter of 2003 as part of this quarter’s report. These data show that student loan debt has substantially increased since 2003, growing $663 billion. Outstanding student loan debt surpassed credit card debt as the second highest form of consumer debt in the second quarter of 2010.

 

Student loan debt continues to grow even as consumers reduce mortgage debt and credit card balances,” said Donghoon Lee, senior economist at the New York Fed. “It remains the only form of consumer debt to substantially increase since the peak of household debt in late 2008.”

 

Additionally, 90+ day delinquency rates for student loans steadily increased from 6.13 percent in the first quarter of 2003 to its current level of 8.69 percent. They remain higher than that of mortgages, auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOC).

Is it any wonder the youth are disillusioned as they become the new middle class, with little opportunity and instead of a mortgage, a huge student loan around their necks? Perhaps all those calling for a housing bottom should consider who the bottom of the rung first-time homeowner is and how much more debt they are starting with now before calling the 'all-clear'.