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On Sub-Pennying, 'Internalizers', And Why The Flash Crash Could Happen Any Second Of Any Day

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Nanex's excellent and thorough analysis of sub-penny trade data doesn't support SEC's conclusions about internalizers as written in the final flash crash report. There is abundant evidence that internalizer software was acutely sensitive to the integrity of the consolidated feed and would switch off internal matching only if and only when the quote was crossed. Furthermore, short term volatility had little, if any impact on the number of sub-penny trades. About the only thing our findings have in common with the SEC report on this matter, is that the date in question was May 6, 2010.

This revelation, that internalizer software is sensitive to the integrity of the consolidated quote, means someone could manipulate the consolidated quote in order to cause internalizer software to reject valuable retail orders and spill them to dark pools or exchanges. This may explain the common micro-bursts of activity that occur throughout the trading day and cause a number of stocks to have crossed quotes in the consolidated feed.


Sub-penny Analysis Leads to Flash Crash Discovery

While analyzing sub-penny trades since 2006, we made a few fascinating observations, one of which reminded us of something the SEC wrote in their final flash crash report about internalizers (the source of most sub-penny trades). Internalizers are stock wholesalers that buy order flow from retail firms such as Schwab and E*Trade. Normally, they match orders internally and fill trades based on the prices from the SIP (securities information processor, the consolidated data feed). Most retail orders never reach an exchange. You can measure the activity of internalizers by analyzing the number of trades that were executed at sub-penny prices (prices requiring 3 or more decimal places). Since exchanges forbid orders that are priced below increments of 1 cent, internalizers are the only regular and consistent source of sub-penny trades.

Back to the flash crash report. The SEC wrote that internalizers stopped matching customer orders because of the wild price swings. Furthermore, they wrote that a delay in consolidated quote was unlikely to affect anyone with a direct feed. However, from analyzing a trillion trades since 2006, we found that the occurrence of sub-penny trades has little correlation with market activity (see this animation). This is probably because no matter how wild prices are, an internalizer will always have a comfortable margin of time on their side. This is not to say the flash crash had no effect on sub-penny prices, it did. But not until about 7 seconds after the bottom was set when the eMini (S&P futures contract) exited the 5 second halt at 14:45:33.

The chart below shows the volume of shares in U.S. stocks with sub-penny prices on May 6, 2010. The red line shows the sum of share volumes for trades with prices in fractions of a penny from 1 to 49 (100ths of a cent). The blue line shows share volumes for fractions of a penny from 51 to 99. Think of the red line as retail sell orders, and the blue line as retail buy orders. The sudden drop from the peak shown on the chart occurs at approximately 14:45:40. If you didn't notice that internalizer activity was exploding when the market was crashing, don't feel too bad; the SEC clearly missed it.



 

Now, we know internalizers did route orders to the exchanges or other venues that day, because that was the source of  many stub quote trades (1 cent for Accenture). But internalizers (the big ones) didn't just turn off like the SEC would have you believe. They did turn off, but only for short periods of time (seconds). And the reason they switched off depended on the one thing the SEC said didn't matter: the integrity of the consolidated quote.

Beginning about 15 seconds before 14:43 that afternoon, an unusually large delay began building in the NYSE quote for a certain group of stocks (based on alpha, see this chart). We think a process at the NYSE which transmits quotes to the SIP for this group of stocks became overloaded and began queuing data, which resulted in older NYSE quotes getting mixed in with fresh quotes from other exchanges. That in turn caused the SIP to transmit crossed (inverted) quotes in the consolidated feed. A crossed quote has a bid price higher than the ask price. For stocks that were falling in price (the majority of them), the consolidated feed combined the slower (and therefore higher priced) bid from the NYSE with the faster (and lower priced) ask from other exchanges (charts). Software used by key internalizers would most certainly be sensitive to prices in the consolidated feed, because those prices are used in executing customer orders. Therefore when it detected an unusually large crossed quote in a symbol, it stopped matching orders for that symbol, and instead, routed those orders to an exchange or other venue. At the very time, and in the very symbols experiencing heavy loads.

Therefore, we would expect to see a reduction in sub-penny trade volume in stocks when there was a crossed quote, and no noticeable reduction in stocks with normal quotes. Fortunately for our experiment, the NYSE had just upgraded the servers used for about half of the listed symbols, leaving the other half on older (and slower equipment). This gives us abundance of data to test our hypothesis.

After looking at dozens of symbols for the time between 14:42 and when the emini was halted at 14:45:28 for 5 seconds we find that sub-penny prints only stop in a symbol when that symbol has a crossed quote. As soon at the quote returns to normal, sub-penny trades immediately return. It has nothing to do with how wild price swings are, as long as the consolidated quote is not locked or crossed, an internalizer will match it.


 

The following 12 charts plot the NBBO and (only) sub-penny trades in one-second intervals during the flash crash (May 6, 2010). The shaded area shows the NBBO (National Best Bid and Offer spread) and is colored gray for normal, yellow for locked (bid = ask), or red for crossed (bid > ask). The volume shown in the lower panel of each chart is the number of shares traded at sub-penny prices during that second.

1. GE - General Electric.
The red shading is where the NBBO was severely crossed caused by NYSE's quotes getting delayed by over 35 seconds. Note there are substantially fewer sub-penny trades in the red-shading (where the NBBO is crossed). Of the few that do appear in the red shading, closer inspection shows the NBBO is normal for a brief period of time. Internalizer software recognized the crossed quote and rejected/routed those orders.



2. PM Philip Morris
Phillip Morris was processed by a different group of machines at the NYSE that were recently upgraded and therefore could better handle the pounding load. There were still crosses in the NBBO, but nowhere as severe as we saw in GE (and other stocks in GE's group). Note that there is no interruption of sub-penny trades during the drop as there was in GE. That means internalizer software didn't switch off because of a severe drop in price. Here is a chart showing which symbols were processed by upgraded (faster) machines.

 



3. IBM - International Business Machines
IBM was also processed by the upgraded machines. Note there is no interruption of sub-penny trade executions during the drop. Again, internalizer software continued processing.

 



4. KO Coca-Cola
Coca-cola, like GE was processed by older (slower machines) and has the same characteristics we saw in GE (chart 2). As with GE, there are no sub-penny trades when the NBBO is crossed (a close up of most of those appearing in the red shows the quote is normal for a brief period around that execution) The internalizer software detected the crossed quote (bad input), and kicked orders out. If the feed wasn't delayed, the orders wouldn't have been routed to exchanges, causing stub-penny executions and leading to further market structure breakdown and panic.

 



5. DIS - Disney
Disney was also processed on slower machines and like GE and IBM, had severe delays. Again, Coca-cola, as with GE and PM, there are no sub-penny trades when the NBBO is crossed. The delay in the datafeed essentially caused the Market maker's (internalizer) software to stop matching orders internally and route them to the exchanges. That caused a flood of orders being routed to exchanges at the very time they were already under heavy load.

 



6. CVX - Chevron
Chevron was also processed on slower machines.

 



7. CTL - CenturyLink
CenturyLink was also processed on slower machines. Note the significant number of sub-penny trades during the wild price swings, which had normal quotes. It wasn't the price swings that switched the internalizer off, it was the crossed NBBO quote.

 



8. EXC - Exelon Corporation
Notice the pattern now?

 



9. BP

 



10. NOK - Nokia

 



11. HPQ - Hewlett Packard

 



12. F - Ford

 


 

Source: NANEX

 

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Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:23 | 2739108 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Looks like todays strange earthquake swarm happening right now in California, and there is almost no other place on the earth right now having any quakes. http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/ http://earthquake-report.com/2012/08/26/powerful-earthquake-swarm-in-southern-california-mexico-border/ http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php http://geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/eqinfo/list.php

http://www.solarham.net/ <--solar wind kicked up, no report for 26th yet on this site.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:25 | 2739116 Haager
Haager's picture

Do you think the financial situation in California has just bottomed out, resulting in some shocks we dumb ppl do recognize as strage earthquake?

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:30 | 2739127 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Lol, Haager, could be. 

Shocks in this corrupt market, this corrupt State and this corrupt country, go hand in hand. Lol. Buy CAT, when you see California fall into the ocean.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:45 | 2739157 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

But, don't most people in California believe that everything east of the San Andreas fault is soon to slide into the Atlantic Ocean?

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:54 | 2739346 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I don't know but the continent is tilted and all the nuts roll to California.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:20 | 2739110 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

SEC:  So Evidently Complicit.

Thanks Nanex and ZH.

 

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:02 | 2739186 Western
Western's picture

Nanex for president.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:47 | 2739327 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

"Western",

 

Brought to you, by none other than...MY MAIN MAN!!

 

Now, who should be your "president"??

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 23:43 | 2740092 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

nanex for Sectratary of the Treasury.

won't have time to run the rest of the country.   :)

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:25 | 2739117 vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

Flash crash can happen only if fear index rises above 30 which could lead to shutdown of some of the robo computer.

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/08/weekly-outlook-aug-27th-aug-31st-dow.html

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:17 | 2739239 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Correction...

Flash Crash can only happen if francis_sawyer goes triple long stocks...

 

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 19:30 | 2739473 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Francis, you go triple long, while the rest of us go triple double secret short. We got your back man...

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:26 | 2739120 resurger
resurger's picture

Deep fried black salami with fries for $6.6666

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:27 | 2739121 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, there's always silver and gold: 

http://tinyurl.com/8hshwv4

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:33 | 2739132 Followmelightbulb
Followmelightbulb's picture

SEC = Save Every Criminal

 

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 17:39 | 2739144 malikai
malikai's picture

I <heart> Nanex.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:05 | 2739194 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I have been saying this for 2 years.  Most Traders cannot trade in sub pennies.  Those sub pennies gives the HFT the abiltiy to get in front of any valid trades.  Plus, they can keep the bid or in some cases the ask from being taken out.

They just keep sub pennying the trade so no one gets a fill but them.  They can push a stock were ever they want.

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 11:01 | 2740882 overbet
overbet's picture

The real problem is internalization. Even if they didnt step ahead of you by .001 you would never see that order flow. The biggest internalizers are also the biggest market makers so in the rare chance uninformed flow reaches the floor and you have an improved chance to trade with it, they are all there too and will step ahead of you!!! in summary, you are fucked!

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:15 | 2739228 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Oh no, unprecedented!

More than 70 earthquakes hit California border on Sunday - @LANow

Story metadata:
Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:15 | 2739234 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Black swan? Maybe not, more like a black duck. A start of a Iran conflct,( a shot down plane/drone or ships shooting at one another) drought, or any other damn thing could start a cascade of selling. The feed back loop could crush the market, the bots would be bleeding from the anus, muppets too. Cue the short sharks and the deer in the head lights.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:21 | 2739244 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Each trade should involve one of these:

http://halmapr.com/news/fortress/files/2007/02/slidebar2blog.jpg

High speed does nothing but favor manipulation and jiggering.

The foxes are guarding the hen house, and the dogs are asleep.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:24 | 2739252 booboo
booboo's picture

About as close as you can get to shit eating dogs running out in front of steam rollers to polish off a pile of shit. Only way to break a shit eating dog is to shoot it. 

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:35 | 2739279 max2205
max2205's picture

Nokia was $11. Wow

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:41 | 2739302 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

If I print these charts and have one of my grandkids color in the vortices, I will have quite a collection of tornadic-type pictures.  Otherwise, consistent profits are made trading probabilities, not possiblities.  Yes, it  is possible that another flash crash could occur.  The probabilities?  Quite low, is my guess.  Any hoot,  I trust no government agency anymore than I can lob a baseball to the moon.  It really doean't matter in this age of corruption, as the perps behind the crash will go free in any event.  In any crash, there is opportunity for the open minded.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:43 | 2739311 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Maybe I could co-locate my mind to the NYSE so that I would not have to read so many annoying and contradictory news headlines and keep asking myself how the market could be this foolish ... If my mind were co-located, I would simply be foolish, and in perfect harmony with this madness.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:44 | 2739313 kornholio
kornholio's picture

bullish

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:47 | 2739326 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Knight Capital

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:49 | 2739330 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I could just stay short. That seems to be pretty good for preventing flash crashes or for that matter any decline in market indexes.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:58 | 2739356 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Fear

Loathing

Hate

 

This all leads to The Darkside

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 19:12 | 2739395 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

or Las Vegas ...

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 18:58 | 2739357 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

you didn't place that trade

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 19:32 | 2739468 spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

Those Nanex graphs always make me laugh and make my eyes spin like a slot machine.  The flash crash and the Knight event were just a primers to see how things would play out in terms of market dynamics, primarily how many knife catchers they can smash on the second wave down.  When the powers that be decide to end the current financial system, a flash crash will be one of the arrows in the quiver.  People will be wiped out in an instant and one of the great panics of our time will ensue.

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 20:53 | 2739746 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

Flash Crash = when the muppets wake up to only find a buck-tree-eighty left in their 401(k) account.  

I still see muppets around me going into their accounts everyday to bask in the goodness of a rising market.   You know what I am waiting for!!!  muhahaha........ Schadenfreude, it just feels so good!

Someone must make a movie about the "great 401(k) scam of the century".  It could show how politicians would receive "tithings" from the muppet fleecings only to use it to make a commercial telling muppets he will stop the fleecings!!.  

Sun, 08/26/2012 - 22:53 | 2740010 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I am amazed how you men/women analyze the data....and I am also very thankful for your doing it and  sharing it with those of us (aka, ME) who performed less then stellar in our advanced differential equations classes.

 

 

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 03:24 | 2740284 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

garbage in/ garbage out X delusion efficiency multiplier = e^ exponential B.S. * f(x)=a_0+?_(n=1)^??(a_n cos??n?x/L?+b_n sin??n?x/L? ) + 1 Bottle ?1 Model / fractional reserve banking + robo trading

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 03:17 | 2740277 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

this party is far from over...

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 09:17 | 2740640 tedstr
tedstr's picture

Hey Tyler, This Nanex stuff is amazing.  Thanks.  Never heard of internalizers before.  Doesn't this process really make the retail brokers like Schwab et al no better than bucket shops of old in Jesse Livermore's day at least for the average retial guy?  I mean its all faster but there is still a margin between the exchanges and the broker that can be exploited.  No?

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 09:22 | 2740652 tedstr
tedstr's picture

If I sit and watch my trade closing order on L2, I see all kinds of sub penny stuff jumping in front of me all the time

Mon, 08/27/2012 - 09:22 | 2740653 tedstr
tedstr's picture

If I sit and watch my trade closing order on L2, I see all kinds of sub penny stuff jumping in front of me all the time

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 18:37 | 2840336 SMFStreetTrader
SMFStreetTrader's picture

We really don't need to see another "Flash Crash"

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