Sudden Crude Backwardation Telegraphing Imminent Easing Episode By Fed

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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:24 | 1805211 firstdivision
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So let's call QE3 for what it really is, Bank Asset Reflation Fund, or BARF for short.

Not just gold, but silver is looking cheap now.  Already short copper and long AUD.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:24 | 1805226 Cassandra Syndrome
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BARF, Bitchez....

Its got a ring to it. Sweet find firstdivision 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:49 | 1805351 eisley79
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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:56 | 1805386 machineh
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It's driven by the central banksters' SUCK program -- Sudden Uptrend in Check Kiting.

Leveraged EFSF, bitchezs!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:42 | 1805317 Sudden Debt
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Yeah, I also think about buying a 1K short on copper just for the fun of it.

It's like a no lose bet right now.


Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:53 | 1805375 DoChenRollingBearing
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@ firstdivision,

+ 1

Just wait until GOLD goes into backwardation.  When the world says they want their gold NOW, not a promise for delivery later.  ANtal Fekete explores this topic thoroughly.  When gold goes into backwardation, the physical will disappear...

Yes, get your PMs now.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:26 | 1805493 pupton
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The "BARF" could be brought about by the "Fraudulent Asset Reflation Trigger", or FART for short.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:43 | 1805581 DaveyJones
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a binge then purge economy

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:22 | 1805214 FunkyMonkeyBoy
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Those scum filth bankers have ruined the 'free markets' for ever. If this was a casino (and it is), no one would ever return after spending an everning there.

As history shows, it's time for some hanging...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:28 | 1805245 pupton
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No free drinks served by half naked cocktail waitresses...I'm out.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:36 | 1805293 FunkyMonkeyBoy
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Would a glass of banker's blood with vodka mixer suit your palate sir?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:46 | 1805341 buzzsaw99
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jagerdagger - one part jager, two parts blood

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:40 | 1805310 Lets Hang Parliament
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The problem is a la Eagles

You can checkout any time you like,
But you can never leave!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:41 | 1805312 Little John
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Call me mean spirited but I say hangin's too good fer em, gut shot em and use em fer buzzard bait.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:45 | 1805329 I Got Worms
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"Buzzards got to eat, same as the worms."

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:58 | 1805395 HardlyZero
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New Rome has the special Bankster Moneychanger eradication role to play.

The Pope has it under control.

That is really why the markets are up Pope in town...and he won't put up with any guff.

So everone else can go back to "business" until the clearout begins.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:42 | 1806092 reload
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The Vatican is just jealous of what our current crop of banksters is getting away with.

The Vatican Bank is no slouch in the arts of Insider trading, price fixing and front running,

but lateley they have been missing out and need to get a lot closer to the trough.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:23 | 1805215 jdelano
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Nope.  Headfake.  Just like the last "QE 3 is coming" run up.  Bloodbath in the works.  

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:30 | 1805258 Everybodys All ...
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We find out in ten days or so after the Nov1-2 meeting. I'm inclined to think LSAP of mortgage backed securities is coming, but I'm not convinced it will matter much overall.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:30 | 1805259 WonderDawg
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Absolutely. Getting ready to load up on puts. Three weeks ago I called for a relatively short but enthusiastic rally, 1250-1270 on S&P, to be followed by rollover into the next leg down. I might have underestimated the strength of the rally, but it's damn sure not a new bull market. This is exactly the kind of mindset that this rally was expected to create, so everything is falling into place. Bloodbath looming, and I'm lining up my puts.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:36 | 1805294 slaughterer
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In 2008 we rallied to the upper Bollinger Band before we crashed.  Upper BB right now is 1380. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:10 | 1805448 WonderDawg
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Could happen, I guess, but it's not the scenario I see unfolding. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I'm not placing my bets until I feel in my gut that this rally has topped, and I'm not there quite yet. That's why I said I may have underestimated. The rally has been more enthusiastic than I expected, so maybe it carries much higher than I originally thought. My strategy is to stay nimble but be ready to play the downside quickly. We'll see.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:08 | 1805718 WonderDawg
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Okay, I couldn't stop myself, I bought some Mar CMG puts right before the close. The stock is trading about 1% below the 52 week high, and there is so much downside potential, I just couldn't wait. Way out of the money, but if my scenario proves correct, they'll be in the money well before March. Time will tell.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:34 | 1805279 broke433
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They are giving hints that QE3 might be in the way... Maybe not in November but December?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:44 | 1805324 Spaceman Spiff
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If not December, then probably January.

Don't worry QE3 is still an option.    We got room with the latest inflation numbers.

If not January, then probably February.

Don't worry QE3 is still an option.   We got room with the latest inflation numbers.

If not February, then definitely in March.

Don't worry QE3 is still an option.    We got room with the latest inflation numbers.

and the beat goes on...


(kinda works for the european bail out plan if you substitute the right words and do the timeline in days.)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:44 | 1805326 jdelano
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Broke433 in August

"They are giving hints that Qe3 might be in [sic] the way...Maybe not this month but in September?"

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:40 | 1805884 mayhem_korner
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Smoked 'im out, nicely, Mr. Back to the Future.  Prolly Ben's bro.  :D

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:42 | 1805319 CPL
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QE3 is the Euro bailout fund.  Regardless of where it's being dumped, when currencies are nearly at parity with one another.  Print in Europe or the US...shit even Canada or Australia.  Now all FIAT is equal and the powers that be may do as they please regardless of the country of the bailout residence.


I wouldnt bet against oil for all the tea in china.  Far too important and too large to ignore.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:54 | 1805639 LawsofPhysics
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"I wouldnt bet against oil for all the tea in china.  Far too important and too large to ignore."  And the understatement of the year goes too...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:23 | 1805219 bigwavedave
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Here comes some fresh green bitchez

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:26 | 1805233 PAPA ROACH
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Is it '420' already?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:58 | 1805397 machineh
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It better be!

Cuz if I'm not baked, then I've fallen through a wormhole into a bizarre alternate universe.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:34 | 1805531 TheFourthStooge-ing
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It's time to spark up the hopium hookah, bro.


Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:25 | 1805232 buzzsaw99
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okay china, get ready for the big green american wienie. #WINNING!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:26 | 1805234 bob_dabolina
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I wouldn't read too much into it

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:33 | 1805524 junkyardjack
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NFLX is up, I bet they blow out earnings

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:27 | 1805239 slaughterer
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Seems like a stupid time to begin QE3 prep work.  Game theory would require for the European experiment to first crash so as to bring down asset prices and sky-rocket the USD before the Fed would step in. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:59 | 1805402 TooBearish
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The other side of game theory, rational expectations says SHIT IS SO BAD IN EUROPE THEY GOTTA PULL THE TRIGGER NOW>...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:28 | 1805244 PAPA ROACH
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How long until the OWS crowd realizes not only are more bank propping events coming up here, but WE are about to do alot more Euro bank propping? Will this be the point at which the movement goes rogue and starts buring shit down?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:38 | 1805299 MsCreant
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I am afraid most of them don't understand what is going on with enough depth to be as pissed as we are.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:52 | 1805373 Hearst
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That's true.  QE# will be embraced by OWS with open arms as they thank their overlords for bailing them out of their school debt.  

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:57 | 1805393 DoChenRollingBearing
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Yes, MsCreant and Hearst.

OWS apparently has no idea of what QE3 will bring.  QE4, etc.  Maybe their student debts will be bailed out, but then with hyperinflation and no jobs, they will still be SOL.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:30 | 1805248 Thunder Dome
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(As usual permabears licking their wounds)

ZH has become a fade.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:30 | 1805265 jdelano
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As usual  my returns are kicking the shit out of every bull hedge fund in the country.  Guess you were napping through august...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:36 | 1805287 jdelano
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And just a little reminder:

Ray Dalio, founder of the largest hedge fund in the world (Bridgewater Associates), said the world debt is so large it will take 10 years to de-leverage it — and “there are no more tools in the tool kit” to postpone the inevitable reckoning. He gave the world the bad news on Friday night on the Charlie Rose Show. The world is divided into debtors and creditors — emerging nations — and the end is near.

We should listen because Ray Dalio is the 55th richest man in the world with a net worth of $6 billion. His company manages $125 billion in global investments, and as Charlie Rose, “Over the last two years, Bridgewater ranked as the largest and best-performing hedge fund in the world. In 2010, his returns were greater than the profits of Google, Amazon and eBay combined.”

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:45 | 1805334 Belarus
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This is just an interesting window where the markets have totally forgotten one simple fact: debts matter. If the Fed QE's on Nov. 1-2 with economic data literally picking up, the WTI over 90, then I said it before and I'll say it again:



Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:49 | 1805355 lizzy36
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With your astute observations and vast contributions I for one will really miss you.

I have a feeling that the Yahoo boards will greet you with open arms.

Have a nice voyage to mean reversion.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:00 | 1805399 jdelano
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Mean reversion?! Oh, snap, this gal knows her shit!

Mean reversion meet Shiller PE.  

Don't worry your pretty little head so much.     

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:05 | 1805433 jdelano
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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:58 | 1805396 homersimpson
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More like your comments will fade by the next Tyler post.

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