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Summarizing America's Record Drought In One Picture

Tyler Durden's picture




 

No commentary necessary.

Source: USDA

 

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Thu, 08/16/2012 - 00:35 | 2709303 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Tell that to the UAH and RSS people (among many, many others)....

Do you practice at being a fool or does that come naturally??

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 00:49 | 2709323 nofluer
nofluer's picture

practice at being a fool or does that come naturally?

I'm sure I could take lessons from you, the expert. The UAH and RSS people only measure PART of the global data - excluding the polar regions. And anthing that passes through NOAA before it sees daylight is highly suspect since they refuse to correct or even admit to obvious errors in their data. So tell us, Mr Scientist. If the amount of time under consideration is not at issue, what is the difference between global weather and climate?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:04 | 2709352 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What range does UAH and RSS cover? 50% 85%, 100%??

I would say that 97-98% of the globe is pretty good coverage....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

So NOAA is a big conspiracy, eh? How about the BEST studies that just came out?

Do you always make shit up and try to pass it off?

I'll check later to see if you have anything of real content to add, as it stands it is safe to say that you are completely ignorable....

Here, you can educate yourself with this commentary on the most recent Hansen et al. paper...

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/08/13/hansen-et-al-2012/

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:32 | 2710325 nofluer
nofluer's picture

You have absolutely NO idea of what you're talking about. The satellites are "look down" and their orbits make the polar regions unavailable, thus out of the dataset because of the angles. Stop reading and believing the crap put out by the fraud Hansen and you might learn some REAL science.

Dr. Christy also responded: As the spacecraft rolls over the pole it does so at an inclined orbit so
that the highest nadir latitude is about 82 deg with the scanner looking
out a bit closer to the pole.  Since we apply the scan line data mostly to
the nadir area directly below the satellite, the actual data only go to
about 83 deg.  In the gridded data I interpolate over the pole, but I
wouldn’t trust the data too much beyond 85 deg.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/08/putting-a-myth-about-uah-and-rss-s...

So neither of the polar regions are indluded in the readings. A total of about 10 degrees of latitude are excluded.


Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:03 | 2710545 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Alright hotshot, compute the corresponding surface area excluded and compare it the total SA of the earth...

Hint integrate d phi d cos theta over the appropriate range... 

start with computing cos(85).....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:52 | 2707605 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

and note the corolation to the sun.....try that shade thing for yourself...it works

if it didnt, then co2 as an explanation would have a chance

its simple common sense

get some

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:55 | 2707627 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Solid, you looked up some data. But do you have any real idea what it means? You studied this stuff where?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:01 | 2707662 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

at least i looked up some data and i'm not parroting an opinion i heard on cnn

 

 

your turn....you look up some data, i cant do it all for you

 

 

and you didnt study it at all, and at least i've spent the time required to form my own opinion

i watched al's movie to....and i was horrified until i learned it was all propaganda

 

i never studied economics either, but i understand it well enuf to be an automechanic who was able to invest wisely and retire in 2007 at age 42

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:05 | 2707693 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Well then, I stand corrected. You certainly could hold your own in a group of actual climate experts. And given that you seem to have the time, why not look some up and get in the conversation, and let us all know how it goes, okay?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:12 | 2707731 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

i actually went to a symposium on the subject in 2009

crowd was split pretty much 60/40 for agw

but i was still able to learn alot

it went well, and thanks for asking

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:18 | 2707761 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Well then, consider yourself a qualified expert. You should write someothing and submit it to a scientific journal. You have much to add to the conversation! Let us know how that goes, okay?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:01 | 2708382 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Bob,

Fuck off.

You may be right, I don't know, but the way you argue is a huge turn off. You sound like you are talking off a list, and honestly, you are rude for no good/productive reason.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 00:22 | 2709282 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Did any of the AGW crowd explain how CO2 causes Global Warming when CO2 rises LAG temperature rises?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:18 | 2709366 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

C02 does indeed lag when the Sun is primary driver of any radiative imbalance. Problem is that the Sun is no longer the primary driver....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Radiative-forcings.svg

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:35 | 2710353 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Bullshit.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:21 | 2707779 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

bobnoxy, our ridiculous waste of energy to produce a whole bunch of crapola no doubt has a negative effect on humanity and our environment, but to think that we can stretch that to some sort of "scientific" understanding of the earth's climate is ridiculous and say that x is happening or that y is going to happen can only occur when we understand every variable that goes into climate.  We simply don't know what all the variables are and have been over the history of this earth.  Not only will we not know all the variables or understand them, we'll never be able to replecate them for real scientific study.  Climate science is akin to economic or social science-trendy theories.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:53 | 2708204 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:57 | 2708419 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

He sounds sensible to me. Chaos theory backs him up there. There will be a strange attractor/constellation of movement where you can plot where something will be in n-dimensions, (not perfect prediction) but he is right, you can't know all the variables, and changing the decimal place that you measure it to when you enter the variable into your model will change the plot.

Also there is that matter of how you define a variable. If the definition changes, it may over lap something else in your model (thus mucking up the plot). Definitions change from study to study, never mind they change over time as paradigms change.

He sounds like he is very sensible to me.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:25 | 2708496 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sorry... we know a lot more that what he is implying and while making *weather* predictions is difficult because of things like chaos theory, that does not apply to the global climate, in particular estimates of the global temperature... Things like El Ninos are hard to predict and model, understanding the cumulative effect of radiative forcings is not so...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:59 | 2708385 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

John,

I'm impressed. You may not be a climate scientist, but you care and have a lot on the ball. If what you say is true, you have more invested in this topic than most of us. 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:03 | 2707675 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

He studied it the same place you did, ... on the Net.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:56 | 2707629 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

In 1997, the conservative think tank Citizens for a Sound Economy surveyed America's 48 state climatologists on questions related to climate change.[1] Of the 36 respondents, 44% considered global warming to be a largely natural phenomenon, compared to 17% who considered warming to be largely man-made. 89% agreed that "current science is unable to isolate and measure variations in global temperatures caused ONLY by man-made factors," and 61% said that historical data do not indicate "that fluctuations in global temperatures are attributable to human influences such as burning fossil fuels." though the time scale for the next glacial period was not specified

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:01 | 2707658 Matt
Matt's picture

1997 is relatively a long time ago; would be nice if they did the survey again now and compared results.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:10 | 2707722 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

15 years ago, but 7 years after the kyoto protocal

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:03 | 2707677 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

A conservative think tank funded by who? And I'm sure they've learned nothing in the ensuing 15 years, right? Are you really that easy? Was that from the same conservative think tank that told you the Bush tax cuts would produce boodles of jobs?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:59 | 2707999 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

And which marxist organization funds your understanding?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:45 | 2707928 g speed
g speed's picture

so if 44% didn't then 66% did--and 17% said man made-= 83%  --and if 89% agree then 11% don't  so 83% + 11% = 94% and 61% say no so 39% agree and thats 94% + 39% = 139%  so it should be obvious to any fool that 139% of the "experts" agree that your SUV caused all the baby seals and baby bears and little baby pelicans and all the other little babies to die--- you hateful person you--probably pick your nose --don't ya-- na na na na--so there --proved it.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:58 | 2707639 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Hey, you can believe anything you want to. It's no skin off my ass. If those people got funding from the like minded people that put our research showing cigarettes were safe, who cares, right?

I'm sure all that Koch funded ''science'' will convince anyone who wants to be convinced. And there you are. Believe what you will. Teach it to your kids. Don't worry, there's little value in a real education these days. Won't hurt them a bit.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:05 | 2707686 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

"If those people got funding from the like minded people that put our research showing cigarettes were safe, who cares, right?"

Do your climate scientists smoke Camels?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCMzjJjuxQI

What about the fossils, bob?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:07 | 2707703 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Yeah, the only important thing is, it's getting warmer! yeah!!  I can wear shorts and tank tops more often!!  yeah!!  And the girls, oh boy oh boy, they are wearing less too!  yeah!!

Who cares how and why?  And ... if humans can affect the climate, then ... well ...

turn up the damn heat!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:13 | 2708271 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Bobby just needs a hug and a nap is all. Don't worry little man you will feel better when I wake you up for dinner.---Your Mommie

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 00:09 | 2709267 nofluer
nofluer's picture

As I understand it, there are actually less than 60 dedicated AGW "scientists" who are driving the issue and who absolutely control who gets published and who does not. Many of the rest of the "3000" have complaints that when they were asked to "review" an article. Their comments about problems in the material were ignored.

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 00:54 | 2709333 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well your understanding is flawed...

All I see is more baseless assertions....

Can you point us to supressed work that should have passed peer review?

Can you tell the difference between relevant stuff and crap?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:38 | 2710377 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Troll.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:37 | 2710724 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sorry.... given the evidence, you are a better fit for the accepted definition...

Did you sort out that surface area integral yet???

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:57 | 2707630 Matt
Matt's picture

While I am certain that the primary cause of climate change is changes in solar output as the sun goes through its cycles, Anthropogenic Climate Change (or whatever the label of the week is) is a lot more than just carbon dioxide emmisions.

Methane is 20 times more potent over a 100 year period, and more like 75 times more potent over 20 years. Oxides of Nitrogen are, what, 50 times? The gases used to make solar panels are something like 200,000 times. The gases in Plasma TVs are massive quantities as well. 

The emissions themselves are only a portion of the man-made causes; deforestation, desertification, urbanization, industrial farming, introduction of invasive species, nitrates and phosphates leaking into the water causing algae blooms and oxygen-free dead zones, oil spills, corexit dumps, filling the ocean with massive amounts of floating plastic garbage, among other issues all contribute to changes in average daily temperature. A city is 5 degrees hotter than a forest during the day.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:07 | 2707702 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

i agree with some of what you are saying for sure

we have created an ecological disaster as a species

yet seem to be focused on a non-sequitor of agw

its the very least of our problems

yet thats the useless thing they choose to focus on

so they can institute a tax scam at a global level combined with cap and trade to once again syphon the little guy dry while achieveing nothing

and thats the point

they dont need to achieve anything because thats not the problem

if they focused on any other bit of the destruction of our planet they would actually have to set goals and do something

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:19 | 2707765 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Guys the correlation between the sun and global temps went AWOL 30 years ago....

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm

And you have to quit with the argumentative fallacy "Arguing from Consquences"....

I am truly sorry if you don't the smell of the shit we dumped in our own crib.... 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:04 | 2708017 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

And so apparently did the relationship between CO2 and temperature:

 

http://simpleclimate.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/edc.jpg

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:12 | 2708047 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Could you refresh our memories on what the last year of the ice core data in your figure is? 

Go ahead, make my day....

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:54 | 2708004 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey JQ,

Are you still peddling that nonsense?

Please answer the following:

What fraction of the atmosphere is GHG?

What would the temperature be without any Greenhouse effect?

How much have GHG concentrations changed in the last 150 years?

Answer the above simple questions factually and we might just then give some creedence to your posts.....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:49 | 2707596 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

.

.

Odd that something like 99% of those with actual climate science credentials strongly disagree with you.

 

I find it odd, that only 1% disagree with you.  They must be the very-most elite scientists.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:21 | 2707488 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

NOW you've done it!

 

Release the Flakken!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:24 | 2707495 pd45
pd45's picture

Climate change is real and natural. Global Warming is not. Surface temperature peaked at about 1998. 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:26 | 2707501 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

You sound pretty sure of yourself. I'm sure you wouldn't have such a strong opinion about somehting you know nothing about. So, where did you get your information on this so I can check it out and learn something?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:31 | 2707518 Stackers
Stackers's picture

climates change. thats what they do. hot. cold and back to hot again. the real myth is that a warm planet is a bad thing.

Thank God for Global Warming or all of Europe and half of North America would be under a 1 mile thick sheet of ice. (and will be again someday in the future)

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:33 | 2707534 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Now that's pure science, and how can anyone disagree with that? That ceratinly trumps the thousands of pages of actual scientific research and observation done by thousands of qualified climate scientists world wide! Solid, and well played by you, sir!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:45 | 2707578 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

and who's payroll are said scientists on?

a valid question

originator of agw is in big oil...start there

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:21 | 2707776 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So do you think that humans will be able to evolve in about 200 years to deal with the changes in the biosphere?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:54 | 2707974 g speed
g speed's picture

only if they mate with roaches---which means science will have to come up with a cooler spandex-- 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:46 | 2707940 pd45
pd45's picture

Bob,

Here, from the mouth of one of the Hockey Stick proponents. Under oath, he had to fess up.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-global-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:39 | 2707890 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

"Global warming is real; it's the human-caused global warming that's the hoax."

 

Global warming might be real; it's the human-caused global warming that's the hoax.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:55 | 2707367 ZDRuX
ZDRuX's picture

Right, because droughts have never happened before. And I guess there is no possible way that a drought that's worse than the last one can be anything but the result of human action; because not nature, but HUMANS will decide where the natural ceiling in drought heat or frequency is.

Probably using high-frequency-temperature models (HFT) , right?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:18 | 2707472 Freedom In Your...
Freedom In Your Lifetime's picture

That the climate patterns all over the world are changing cannot be denied. That humans have severely damaged the environment in many areas and created unhealthy living conditions in the bigger cities also cannot be denied. That humans are the cause of the entire changing climate patterns isn't very clear, but my gut instinct says it's most likely not true. That government can solve the problem of the changing climate is absolutely absurd and only people with some serious delusional beliefs would believe it.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:06 | 2707652 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

It's easy to "solve" global warming:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management

"As early as 1974, Russian expert Mikhail Budyko suggested that if global warming became a problem, we could cool down the planet by burning sulfur in the stratosphere, which would create a haze. Paul Crutzen suggests that this would cost 25 to 50 billion dollars per year."

But is it actually a problem if Earth warms or is full of CO2, a plant food? There is evidence that our forests are growing vigorously.

And is Earth actually warming? There's been no significant warming in the last 15 years. And for the oceans - which have 1000x the heat capacity of the atmosphere - there is little historical data.

The real crisis is that the pseudoscientists' climate model predictions are proven false again and again and again. They'll keep tweaking their models, massaging and deleting their data, and spewing hysterical propaganda until they get the "science" right, I guess.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:19 | 2707767 Matt
Matt's picture

Climate Change is more than just Global Warming. Percipatation amounts and distributions is another major part of it. How would this sulfer technique affect rainfall and humidity?

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:06 | 2708251 Griffin
Griffin's picture

There is a volcano in Iceland called Grimsvotn, it has a fissure called Laki, after a small mountain close to it.            

This fissure erupted 1783-1784 and caused major climate change in a large part of the world.

It produced ca 14 km3 of material and one of the main toxic material was sulfur dioxide.

This caused abnormal weather in a very large area for quite some time, both extreme heat and cold.

This is a documentary about this event http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrfcsxP3feI

I think its not a good idea to mess with something we dont understand, like the weather systems.                        

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:23 | 2707801 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So dumping Sulfur into the stratosphere will fix everything, eh?

So you have complete  faith in the models that we would use to study this?? 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:07 | 2708243 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>So dumping Sulfur into the stratosphere will fix everything, eh?

It will probably cause side effects we don't understand. But it might save us in a pinch, like say if the weather gets 1 degree hotter 200 years from now.

>So you have complete  faith in the models that we would use to study this??

I don't have faith in any of it: God requires faith, but science needs evidence.

Until the climate pseudoscientists produce computer models with predictions that are borne out by reality, their "science" is not to be believed.

They don't even use accepted principles of forecasting.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:26 | 2708302 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Chew on this:

From 1975 no less....

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/files/2009/10/broeckerglobalwarming75.pdf

Here is one from 1981....

 http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha04600x.html

So cut with the bullshit rhetoric....

Well, you are the idiot that claims dumping Sulfur will fix everything.... did it occur to you that they rely on the same models that you bitch about?

PS The models work for aerosols:

http://www.newswise.com/articles/pinatubo-validates-climate-model

They have been tested. You know, the same models that describe on C02 is causing GW...

Do you think that there might be other side-effects not considered?

You are a fucking two-faced hypocrite....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:30 | 2708317 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Even a blind squirrel gets a nut now and then. Congrats on your google skills. But did these same models also predict the absence of statistically significant warming during the past 15 years? AFAIK this remains unexplained.

Which prediction do you maintain is trustworthy now that we can come back and see falsified in another 15 years? Remember, you have to predict correctly in advance, not dig up cherry-picked, old predictions.

>Do you think that there might be other side-effects not considered?

Do you need a remedial reading class? Or did you not read what I wrote in my post above?

>You are fucking hypocrite....

You are mesmerized by scientism. You can't distinguish it from actual science.

Some people seek truth. Dressing themselves up in scientistic or orthodox trappings isn't enough for them.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:40 | 2708361 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 So, you now claim that the warming stopped in 10 or so years ago (hint, you are thinking of 1998, an intense El Nino year)....

How much data (in years) is needed to have statistically significant trend given the true underlying trend and the intrinsic variability of the data?

The above is a purely mathematical question and the answer is here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/how-long/

And a little color commentary here

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/07/16/trend-and-noise/

---

You claim you are smart...why do you use such lousy and transparent arguments?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:06 | 2709354 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Wow! That's pretty slick! they think they can detect a trend after only 24 years with 95% certainty. that's only about two solar short cycles, and 1/62 of a long cycle! Looks more like guesstimation than science. sorry. to achieve a good hard estimate of trend with ANY certainty at all would require CENTURIES of data - which just don't yet exist. (FYI - the first reliable thermometer wasn't invented until 1714. Too bad they didn't keep detailed records of global temperatures back then!)

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:29 | 2709375 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sigh...

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022

How far back does the Sunspot number record go back? (Hint I gave it to you above)

Are you are aware that the Solar flux can also be measured by variation in C14 ratios....

Whadda ya know, hre is a discussion from 1969:

http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19690024196_1969024196.pdf 

Well, fuck me, here is somthing going back 2500 years....

http://lss.fnal.gov/conf2/C990817/s3_6_40.pdf

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:07 | 2708035 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

chemtrails?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:38 | 2708145 Griffin
Griffin's picture

When Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted 2010 and people were worried about the possible length of the eruption, some Russian experts came up with the idea of filling the volcano with concrete.

They said they could stop the eruption for 1 bn $.  Of course no one took this seriously.

There are always all kinds of experts pithcing ideas, for a reasonable fee :)

Some of them are stupid and funny like the one above, some are stupid and dangerous, like this sulfur idea.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:05 | 2708247 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>some are stupid and dangerous, like this sulfur idea.

Agreed. But it's no more stupid or dangerous than handicapping the world economy so the government can control the weather 100 years from now.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:49 | 2707335 youngman
youngman's picture

And these usually last for a few years.....sometimes 10 years as in the Great Depression....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:20 | 2707358 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

solar cycles

 

They last about 11 years.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:32 | 2707834 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You got the 11 years right...

Could you describe the range of radiative forcing over a full solar cycle and compare it to these

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

You really should be aware of this

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm

Take a good look at figure 2

And be sure to check out the linked data for the solar intensity here

http://spot.colorado.edu/~koppg/TSI/

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:13 | 2708270 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Any one want to decipher this sentence from the noaa link above:

"only the direct forcing has been included. Model-dependent feedbacks, for example, due to water vapor and ozone depletion, are not included"

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:24 | 2708310 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It means exactly what it says....

Why don't you google it up and learn or go to RealClimate.com and submit a question on their open thread...

Hell, Michael Mann himself might even point you in the right direction...

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:24 | 2709372 nofluer
nofluer's picture

In context, it means that they cherry picked what data they decided to include, and what to exclude.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:17 | 2709363 nofluer
nofluer's picture

I like this sentence...

IPCC takes the pre-industrial era (arbitrarily chosen as the year 1750) as the baseline.

What that means is that they consider the later part and end of the Little Ice Age as "normal" and count "warming" from there. Arbitrary my ass...

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:50 | 2707342 sterman7
sterman7's picture

Don't light that match!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:50 | 2707343 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I've been through the desert on a horse with no name...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:51 | 2707344 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

MINNESOTA (^_^)y

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:50 | 2707345 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I live in Contiguous Designation, FL

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:58 | 2707388 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

aka Camp Fema 6

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:56 | 2707377 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Looks like the map of the election night results with the GOP red

 

disclaimer

 

not a fan of either one O or Mitt

 

but sure would love to see Obama LOSE his job

 

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:21 | 2707486 laomei
laomei's picture

Doesnt matter to be honest, it's all fucked either way.  This year, consider voting for yourself.... by bailing and moving overseas to a sane country.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:51 | 2707603 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Where would that be?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:34 | 2707859 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Surely he's not suggesting China!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:12 | 2707730 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Heard it said kinda like when the raiders play dallas, too bad one of them has to win.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:57 | 2707382 NRGIsFree
NRGIsFree's picture


Nothing to worry about. T. Boon Pickens and alike are positioning themselves between the peasants and the nations fresh water supply. Such a generous act of philanthropy!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:02 | 2707414 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

And they couldn't have done it without the government's help in creating an insane body of laws, statutes, regulations, ordinances, and codes regarding water-use rights by the land owner. Just like minerals and oil. Can't let the plebs own their own land.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:58 | 2707385 moskov
moskov's picture

It only needs 5 yellow stars them there is the American province of People's republic of China! Hooray

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:59 | 2707389 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Next year's news: "We need a New New Deal, a total overhaul of farming and agriculture, power generation and delivery, ranching and animal husbandry, irrigation, water delivery and sanitation" says President Obama.

Who would honestly be surprised?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:00 | 2707397 dynomutt
dynomutt's picture

Why do all of the counties in the state of Delaware have a disaster designation but none of the rest of the eastern seaboard around it have one?  Could it be a voluntary honor-system based request for federal funds?  Hmm........

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:00 | 2707401 DetoxingFromThe...
DetoxingFromTheKoolaid's picture

Some of my friends have been haarping on this damn drought issue for awhile......

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:01 | 2707407 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Reason for food prices in  the US to keep going up.

Even if food prices doubled from here it would be no issue. Wall Street traders will ramp prices much further if they can.

Help Bernanke and the Fed out with it's effort to massively inflate. Raise those prices big time!

 

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:02 | 2707410 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

like a couple other comments....in S FL, there is no drought, very normal readings per the papers.... this map looks a little 'hype-y' to me.

but of course the more areas considered 'disaster' the more federal dollars can be claimed...out of the normal budget, so no impact on the deficit, natch...

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:30 | 2707833 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

it's irrelevent if there is a drought or not...in the publics mind there will be...can be re-inforced with the futures markets which are suppressed...it's part of the final plan devaluation of the dollar.

 

All roads lead to Israel and we know it...keep building that wall boys,,,your gonna fcking need it.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:07 | 2707429 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Lake levels in Texas are pathetic. At least we had a very wet spring to make up for the insane summer of 2011 that made this summer look mild.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:07 | 2707430 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Hadn't noticed, here in Nevada it is always pretty much a drought.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:08 | 2707437 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Go out to Lake Mead and you'll notice......

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:06 | 2708031 g speed
g speed's picture

could be increased use -- elec in calif? might not be lack of snowcap.  just saying--

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:07 | 2707434 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

"Make Room, Make Room....."

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:09 | 2707439 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Looks like Hell ;-)

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:10 | 2707444 Argos
Argos's picture

The map is accurate for Arizona.  Phoenix has matched or broken 6 temperature records in the last 10 days.  NOT what you want in Phoenix.  Last night the LOW temperature was 93 degrees.  Breaking a record.  Year to date, Phoenix has had an incredible 1.36 inches of rain. 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:13 | 2707455 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

WTF is it with this new drought narrative?  Many parts of that map are well over the effects of earlier droughts.  Much of the west has gotten far more rain than usual.  Yes the drought is really bad in the heartland, but this map is a crapper.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:20 | 2707483 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

Noticed that too.  See my post below.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:28 | 2707509 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

There is a drought on, is what. Crops have failed. Rain did not come. It is too hot. The map is the map. You cannot say it is not so and have it be not so. Reality doesn't work that way.

We are a land of bullshitters. Whatever is coming, bring it. It needs to burn to be believed.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:12 | 2707727 linrom
linrom's picture

The map was made up by the farmers--farm aid $400 billion subsidy is on the table.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:10 | 2708044 g speed
g speed's picture

lets hear it for the Farm Bill with one half being continuing appropriations --(didn't even get to say yes to the spending-- its just automatic).

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:55 | 2708720 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

Mark my words, the 'Rockefeller farmers' will (once again)be the biggest recipients of any current farm bill's 'aid.'

 

This was from 2004(think it's changed?):

 

Large Corporate Farms Still Getting Lion's Share of Taxpayer Subsidies

 

2002:

 

How Farm Subsidies Became America's Largest Corporate Welfare Program

 

disclaimer: I'm not a fan of the Heritage Foundation, but I think this quote from their article is 100% correct:

 

In other words, far from saving America's family farms, the current farm subsidy system is destroying them.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 01:35 | 2709381 nofluer
nofluer's picture

In my little corner of NW Missouri, last year this time we had 21.4" of rain. This year just 14". That 7" is the difference between growing food and killing trees. The leaves on trees less than 25 feet tall are turning yellow - which means the water table has dropped below their lowest roots. I have about 70 acres of trees that help hold the water table up. In '88 & '89 it was lots lower... but the summer isn't over yet. Even with watering, our little garden grew only grass, weeds, and a few beets. Only 1.2" of rain since the third week in June.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:15 | 2707462 canardo
canardo's picture

Anybody alive in there??

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:19 | 2707474 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

I grow oranges in Tulare Co, Calif and we have all the water we need from two wells and canal water.   Not sure why that county is market RED.  Perhaps because it looks good.

If your crops are watered by irrigation, there is not much of an issue.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:42 | 2707565 Row Well Number 41
Row Well Number 41's picture

The water you are using is either from previous rainy seasons (ground water) or imported from an area not as heavily affected by drought.  Your county is red because it shows how much rain actually fell in your county.

#41

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:24 | 2707805 Matt
Matt's picture

Or underground aquifers which will eventually run out. Although, ground water is apparently considered in the definition, from wiki:

drought is an extended period of months or years when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply whether surface or underground water. Generally, this occurs when a region receives consistently below average precipitation. It can have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and agriculture of the affected region. Although droughts can persist for several years, even a short, intense drought can cause significant damage[1] and harm the local economy.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:37 | 2707878 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Someone actually thought that "drought" meant "there is no water at the tap"?

Must be really nice to live in a technological trap like that. You never have to worry about anything in the real world.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:20 | 2708295 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>You never have to worry about anything in the real world.

That's something to be proud of. It's called the division of labor. Without it you would have starved at age 3 or died from an infected cut sustained while picking grubs out of the dirt.

Some people actually worry about virtual worlds - they survive by farming video game items.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:19 | 2707475 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

For weather watchers, here's a fine site with 3 minute updates every morning:

http://www.youtube.com/user/suspicious0bservers?feature=results_main

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:23 | 2707493 laomei
laomei's picture

We've just been getting rain rain rain over here.  I guess we ran out of jobs to steal from you and we're now holding the rain as collateral on the debt.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:35 | 2707539 UTICA CLUB XX PURE
UTICA CLUB XX PURE's picture

2/3 of the earth is covered with water. The other third is covered with dirtbags. Don't sweat the small stuff...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:36 | 2707543 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Got beef?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:48 | 2707595 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Stock up your freezer on beef as ranchers dump cattle before the high grain prices hit and beef goes way up. 

 

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:01 | 2707667 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

and yet i get 10 Omaha Steak specials every day in my email

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:08 | 2707713 Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

Damn those preppers and their rain collecting!  Now we know why it's illegal.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:13 | 2707737 PatBateman
PatBateman's picture

God won't touch Ohio and the incredible Browns/Buckeyes season coming soon! (minus Toledo, but who gives a hell about them)

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:25 | 2707808 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Let the rationing begin!!!  Fuel rationing, food rationing, sugar and flour rationing!  You can have a EBT card, but if you cant buy any food with it, things could get dicey!!

My gut instinct is, Americans wont take well to rationing in 2012-2013, quit like they did in 1930-1945!! Three generations makes a big difference in mentality!!!! I could be wrong, maybe we will all watch Extreme Country Makeover edition on ABC every week, and all wait in line quietly singing religious hymns and wait for our 10 gallons of gas and loafs of bread, FOR 5-10 YEARS, but I suspect NOT!!!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:34 | 2707862 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Frack the drought or start a war against it-- seems to be the solution to things these days: just fuck it up some more.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:38 | 2707887 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

They need more water in the river? Everyone just flush their toilet twice every time.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:05 | 2708021 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Of course this has NOTHING TO DO with blowing in the atmosphere huge ammounts of carbon which was stored underground for several geological ages. Oh, and did I mention that this smoking occured in a geological nanoseconds by little cancerous beings known as "men"? NOTHING TO SEE HERE. It's nobody's fault, keep consuming.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:14 | 2708275 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>little cancerous beings known as "men"... keep consuming

i.e. this person hates humankind. This misanthrope has some kind of sick, green ideology.

>Of course this has NOTHING TO DO with blowing in the atmosphere

News flash: droughts have happened for thousands of years. If you think there is some causal connection, let's see the evidence.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:21 | 2708303 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Cells that grown non stop killing the mother organism = check

units that consume above what they should depriving the rest of the system = check

 

Am I talking of Cancer or my "sick green" ideology? Keep on consuming. Don't let a breathe of air distract you and let you see the scientific studies on the effect of the geological nanosecond carbon smoking, how predictions based on those scientific models are becoming reality (including your own drought), or should it be cable repairmen saying they get the storm of the century each year... well, nothing to see here. Keep consuming.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:36 | 2708343 Arnold
Arnold's picture

I guess you weren't around  when the Pittsburgh steel mills were operating. The air quality was about the same as central China is now. Moisture coalesses around particulates and forms drops large enough to overcome air currents and falls as rain. My $.02 worth.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:57 | 2708411 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>Cells that grown non stop killing the mother organism = check

Human beings are not cells; nor does there seem to be a "mother organism", whatever that is, that's dying.

>units that consume above what they should depriving the rest of the system = check

Tell us, how much "should" human beings consume? It is actually natural to consume as much as possible while pitilessly starving out every other being.

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:13 | 2710595 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Humans are only units of a larger organism, in this case, the planet. Or the planet's ecosystem I should say.

It's natural to consume as much as possible starving out the rest. But nature had its laws regulating that. Humans managed to beat natural selection and all other backstops nature had in store for us to keep our numbers at a moderate level (a level which doesn't affect the whole system). Humans managed to escape those constraints. But with this new power came a new responsibility. Now that we escaped the limits of nature (some of them at least), we have to take into consideration what impact will have being outside those boundaries. Of course humans didn't care for that and continued to grow and consume like cancer. Now we've overshot, and nature has its own rules for that too. And this time there's no escape for nobody.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:03 | 2708436 CABill
CABill's picture

Whew, driving a 12mpg c02 spewing SUV, I felt responsible for a minute.  

 

Then Obama said, "You didn't build that".

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:05 | 2708447 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Hey I am right on the red edge....but it's coming my way!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:14 | 2708622 calgal
calgal's picture

Happy Chemtrails to you, until we meet again...
Happy Chemtrails to you, keep smilin' until then....
Who cares about the drought and the geoengineered weather?
Just sing a song and we can starve together....
Happy Chemtrails to you, 'till we meet again......

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:37 | 2708823 Slack Jack
Slack Jack's picture

Do you know that the last 16 years include the 15 HOTTEST years (on record).

http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=42682

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:47 | 2708847 newengland
newengland's picture

Do you know that Mother Nature doesn't give a damn about you.

The scammers making money off global warming scare tactics are going to be burnt alive. Poetic justice. Al Gore and his ilk deserve hell.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 21:19 | 2708920 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Whats the matter? Can't handle the truth?

If there is a hell, it will be populated by the Kochs and their paid shills like Anthony Watts....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:44 | 2708842 newengland
newengland's picture

People of practical skills will survive the drought and all else. 

The two-faced lying cheating money grubbing politicos and their cowardly corporatist herd will die. Those who bought bunkers in the mid-west, thinking their Trilateral Commission Agenda would spare them.

Good. The lowly liars die. Darwinism at its best.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 23:37 | 2709208 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

From over Tamino's way....

I just had to pass it along...

Horatio Algeranon

“Imagine”
(This will undoubtedly seem like blasphemy to some. Horatio can only offer his sincere apologies to John Lennon, RIP)

Imagine there’s no warming
It’s easy if you try
No hell in summer
Above us cloudy sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today…

Imagine there’s no greenhouse
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to cut or change for
And no real CO2
Imagine all the people
Emitting carb’n in peace…

You may say I’m a denier
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will emit as one

Imagine no ice melting
I wonder if you can
No need for Cryosphere or JAXA
The brotherhood of Mann
Imagine all the people
Burning all the oil…

You may say I’m a denier
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will emit as one

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 23:43 | 2709220 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

I agree that this map looks a touch "off".  While no doubt many of the areas in red are truly in trouble -- I'm in area of the FL Panhandle and we've had rain 30 out of the last 32 days.  The tourists haven't been too happy.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:10 | 2709540 i-dog
i-dog's picture

<*sigh*> ... another 40 posts (so far!) from Flakmeister in a single thread. Talk about OCD!!!

What is it with these Sunstein Sock Puppets™ that they must keep posting until they fill a page!

Hey, Cass! ... Do us a favour, dude! ... Can you start paying them for quality rather than quantity, eh!?!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:26 | 2709803 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I didn't see you complaining about multiple posts from various commenters when they were dealing with PM trolls...

If you don't like the facts go hang out in the Ayn Rand appreciation circle jerk echo chamber....

This is fight club and I will take anyone on when it comes to AGW and PO....

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 21:36 | 2712924 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

BUSTED! "No commentary necessary." - You just gave one naimly 'No commentary necessary' which is a commentary in itself!

This is NOT a commentary and this is Not a love song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BGi8u8BtaA

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!