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Summarizing The Event Risk Horizon
Whether its rating downgrades (which are much more critical than one would imagine given haircuts and collateral shortages), anxiety-inducing elections that could bring tensions in the 'party' that is Europe's political union, or referenda, the next few months have more than their fair share of event risk to navigate. Starting with Italian (and then Spanish banks) next week, it seems the market is starting to sense the squeeze that events could cause.
Source: Morgan Stanley
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But ... the crisis in Europe was OVER!
IT WAS OVER MAN!!!11!1!1!...
elections? here is a damned cogent (imo) MSM take:
BILL MOYERS AND MICHAEL WINSHIP
The Rich Are Different Than You and Me
for whom will your tax-paying secretary vote?
This whole BS ponzinomic shebang is about to squeeze out a loaf of Summers proportion.
Anything’s possible when you can lose your inhibitions and twist reality to fit your notions.
Sure it is! Just stay here on the deck you understand? While I'll get into the lifeboat and go get some help....
MAYDAY! MAYDAY!....
Herman Von Rumpboy said it was all fixed, think he even said kumbyah to Nigel
We just may have a party here at Zero Hedge next week. Lets even invite the Trolls and "brilliant ones" to join us. Time will tell.
We k ow that TPTB want to kick all the cans past November
Can they? Bush tried and failed ... And ... There a lot more people trying to kick their cans now than previous
I'm thinking somebody just might miss theirs and cause a problem
When in doubt be conservayive is my motto
We 'know' they want to 'kick all cans' past November? And then what?
'Santa Claus Rally again? See, theres always a reason to not let markets drop and instead gotta pump, every day of the year theres a reason! From options exp, to weekend, month end, quarter end 'window dressing' for 'bonuses' of course, earnings, whatever...every day the case can be made why markets simply cant drop!
I dont know any such thing myself, maybe thats what a lot of people assume, because they think theyre able to out-guess the world central bankster cabal...but for all any of us knows theyre done with their ass hat puppet Obama and would prefer to switch it over to a white cracka republican to take all the blame for everything falling apart. Just as likely as anything esle, and I think its even highly likely.
didn't bush complete his two terms?
Whatever "Bush" tried to do in 2008, somebody decided not to kick the can past the election, and I think Hank Paulson was probably one of them. The set-up is probably different this year. It all depends on who is meant to win in November.
Yes, but made sure to pass TARP and TALF before his time was up.
It's definitely not 2008 anymore....definitely not 2008.
ARE WE HEADING FOR A GLOBAL DOUBLE DIP RECESSION? MARKETS PRO THINK SO...
in spite of all the styooopid n000,000minalist cheerleading, we've been in the second dip for abt a year; at least that is what many here, including yers trooly, have been attempting to "suggest" for oh, abt a year...
The Frankstein markets 'sensed' something? Uh oh....someone grab another sedagive, QUICK!
Greek elections are going to be a riot...no literally.
The crisis is over in Greece. Now people are dying. The crisis in EU will be over when the rest of people begin dying off. They did not choose to take out the bankster families but instead chose to die. They did not wage war against their media distribution system but instead chose to die. They did not turn their weapons on the technocrats but instead chose to die. They did not want to take chance with their children but instead chose to die. They were hoping things would turn around but instead they died.
Yep, and I must admit I was surprised. I thought they would burn the place to the ground, but apparently they just chose to lay down and die.
That same ball is going to be in OUR court real soon.
http://www.ultrasworldwide.net/ultras/2012/03/greece-panathinaikos-vs-olympiakos-18-03-2012/
The spirits are boiling. They had to cancel the most important sporting event of the year - Olympiakos - Panthianaikos soccer game.
It is never gradual, never ever. It always pops.
As long as the police gets paid, things may go smoothly. But the gov played it very smart by inventing rumors of military coup, which horrifies the greeks. They have quite a bloody history of military coups as of 1949, even a civil war.
Two options:
- It will pop if greek youth stays in the country
- It will only simmer if greek youth leaves en masse. I'm seeing a lot of young greeks from Greece here in Toronto.
Each option has 50% probability, IMO.
I don't know why but I'm sensing a dead-on fixation with dying.
I would not say it is over yet. Living conditions have deteriorated, but it is moderate decline and dispersed geographically more in certain areas than others. Greece is not big enough to take on the beast alone. Spain, France, Italy will soon be coming up to the plate. Stay tuned.
My analysis: No events will trigger anything.
You see, Europe DOES NOT have a organized and experienced group of Plunge Protection Team with a Line of Credit, probably infinite Line of Credit. Hence Europe goes through more normal motions of realistic decline.
On the contrary, US has quite an experienced PPT = US based Primary Dealers (don't understand fully yet what's the role of non US primary dealers exactly inside PPT).
Same as from 2007 (housing crash) until stock crash of 2008, PPT was basically the main buyer until they ended up being the only buyer = no trading. Hence, Lehman had to be engineered (yes it was engineered) to clean up the weakest links to get people back to market.
Same exact thing is happening now, but at 7 trillion more money (portion of it is going to stocks). PPT = US based Primary Dealers are increasingly becoming the only buyer by orders of White House and Congress until nobody else would be trading.
Next step: 1, 2 or 3 weakest links = 1, 2 or 3 US based Primary Dealers have to be liquidated, same as MFGlobal. Whether they do it by lottery, or by survival of the fittest, it is irrelevant.
This becomes even clearer if one checks the updated list of Primary Dealers - 2 canadian banks were added recently (Nov 2011). Reminder, Wells Fargo declined to become one - very smart people.
Golden Eye of Hurricane
Wow. Quite a good list of REAL macro events. Thx a lot.
Further to that, I think that these events make PPT (on orders of congress or WH) to become the sole buyer on hope of hope of hope of hope of hope that sth miraculous will happen. Fed (or Insanity) is absolutely not independent and I think Obama's exective order placed it legally under WH and Congress rule.
Hence, events DO NOT TRIGGER a crash but make people sell, hence force PPT to buy up until no trading. Identical to 2007 to 2009.
Incomplete list of "known knowns".
What about acomplete list,plus a list of "known unknowns".
Then theres the "unknown unknowns",and throw in a flock of black swans as
well.
Interesting times we live in.
hey, w_c_chill!
known unknowns are covered pretty completely at my link to jimWillie's weekly rant above @ 13:04 as well as more than a coupla unk/unk, depending on wtf one "knows"
A "wedge" of flying black swans
But...but.... CRamer said..............
When the escape velocity of money printing reaches infinite you have met the Event Horizon and implosion is inevitable.