This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Summarizing The "Reasons" Behind The Latest Overnight Risk Melt Up
Greek riot resumption? Debunked European bailout rumor? Spain downgrade? Apple miss? Failed German Bund auction? Continued freezing in the interbank market? No, none of these are enough to dent risk appetite overnight, driven one again exclusively by the EURUSD, which has picked over 100 pips overnight. The driver? THe same old that always drives the EUR higher: hopes, rumors and hopes that the rumors are true. Here is Bloomberg with a summary of reality and the opposite, lately better known as "capital markets."
- Treasuries are lower coming into the New York session following yesterday’s Guardian report that Germany and France have agreed to boost EFSF by EU2t.
- German finance minister Schaeuble told lawmakers the bailout fund may be increased to a maximum of EU1t, according to Financial Times Deutschland
- Bloomberg’s Sovereign Debt Movers is dominated by Northern European names including Finland, Germany and Denmark, the 10-yr yields of those nations rising as global stocks, risk currencies and the euro gained
- U.S. Consumer prices probably climbed 0.3% in September, smallest gain in three months, economists est. ahead of today’s report
- While French banks have the most to lose in a potential Greek default, moves to expand rescue efforts or recapitalize banks at government expense adds to pressure on French finances, placing its top credit rating at risk
- Bunds extend losses after the weak 10-yr auction which even the authorities acknowledge is due to nervousness in the mkts.
- Germany sold EU4.1b of 10-year bonds, less than the maximum target of EU5b, the Bundesbank said.
- The central bank got bids totalling EU4.55b, it said
- Auction today shows “increased nervousness of the mkt,” the Federal Finance Agency said
»
- 8788 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
melt up is money from germ and french bonds has to go somewhere (equities)...
this is bearish..... Market carsh ahead!
LOL- huge bid-to-cover there.... I wonder how much the US Fed put in to make sure there was a full cover?
as peter tchir said... it's unclear how many "risk on" days italy will be able to afford. same for france...their yields were up significantly earlier
With a bailout of EU1t you cannot fail...
...or can you?
If the politicians have their way, it will surely crash. Seems everyone is trying to gain or orchestrate a positive outlook, that is my sign it is coming to the end. Staying safe and with plenty of dry powder.
And Big Panda protecting it's 1tUSD in Euro assets. What's a few million to keep up appearances, and the virtual Euro?
I like how you put it: "REASONS". Establishing causation here is close to impossible.
OK so what happens when they ban CDS on the banks next.
Cyclical Bear market counter-trend rally near exhausted. Book it. Secular Bear just a teenager. Perspective please. Happy short-term trading only.
nm
Boy and girls, may i present the latest iteration of the American Fraud (TM).
(BN) *MORGAN STANLEY 3Q CONT OPS EPS $1.14, EST. 30C *MORGAN STANLEY 3Q INCLUDES$1.12-SHR FROM CREDIT SPREAD WIDENING
When you look at the BAC move and the idiocy coming from Europe I'm beginning to think we are reaching a crisis point.
With the massive swings in USD/EUR will we see another "rogue trader" led out to distract us?
...one word descibes this: clusterfuck
...sorry :'describes'. I HATE bad engliosh
You can use the edit feature as long as your comment has not been replied to.
Textbook case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" Perhaps instead of ever releasing a plan, they will just try to tease us along with rumors ad infinitum?
Another up day, another round of excuses and platitudes from the Tyler Durdens.
I am beginning the think the Tyler Durden group might just have missed the boat.
Another bear market rally, and all is well in the world for the foolishly clueless. Go get some koolaid. Or maybe a faux pizza with 9-9-9 toppings.
That assumes that the boat has already sailed, something you would, no doubt, strenuously deny in your perma unicorn world.
It doesn't cost me anything for the market to move up or down if I don't participate. You are talking about money made on asset appreciation after the fact like there was no risk cost to you during the trade. Did it ever occur to you that the amount of volatility and profit you saw in your account was a product of the risk you took during that trade? Somebody was on the other side of that trade you know. They now know exactly how much risk was involved. You should be happy you won and didn't end up like them rather than gloating like you didn't take the risk. You did, and you will again, and again, until you blow out your account because you don't know what you are doing.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
You have obviously spent some time on this, so I'll add a further note that the markets have always been like this, but they are so much more corrupt and disfunctional now that even the average Joe can see it. From the very first days of the stock market, the big players must have banded together to run the stops of small traders unfortunate enough to cluster on one side of the trade.
Yes. They have always used rumors and the news. Then the Internet showed up and they used the bulletin boards. Then CNBS showed up and they used that. Then technical analysis was embraced by the public and they used that to complete patterns and lure in the public to run their stops. Now, I suspect that they tally which side of the trade has the most small traders so they can run their stops with their algos. It's the same game, over and over.
The Holy Grail of trading isn't developing an especially predictive indicator, because no matter how good your indicator is, if it puts you on the side of the trade with retail, you lose. The Holy Grail of trading is to avoid retail when it is clustered into the later stages of a trend, because that is when they are going to be harvested. This is the hard lesson that costs so many their accounts.
Tyler you silly goose, don't you know that hope-induced headlines outweigh any solid fact-based fundamentals? Ask any algorithm if you don't believe me.
*crazy eyes*
haha, the news bots are on matrix mode
Tyler, any chance of some graphs suggesting the eurusd lead?
like u said the other day it could also be the euro banks selling their us assets. It does stink of manipulation - I wonder how many central bank bucks are laundered and wind up in equities
AAPL is 15% of QQQ, XLK, and other high tech indicies. I don't see them affected by much.
Sure they will be affected, AGLO's buy indexes, which make all the weak shorts (almost all of them) scramble and wet their pansts as they continue to capitulate one after the other today, ultimately sending the QQQ is massively positive territroy. Apple will gap down, tne proceed to head higher the rest of the day.