Summarizing Wall Street's Reaction To The NFP Data

Tyler Durden's picture

As usual, Reuters is the first with a compilation of Wall Street's gut reaction to the NFP data.


"Although positive and above consensus (60k), the growth was not enough to reduce the unemployment rate, which is still at 9.1%. The market had expected a smaller count based on some 'corrective' movement in both the private and public sector, which had depressed August's nonexistent payroll growth (which is now reported as having added 57k jobs). In addition to August's revision, July payrolls at 127k (originally 85k) expands the job market by 99k than originally thought. Today's report amounts to 287k jobs created in Q3. The expected suppressive and supportive influences to detract and add to jobs creation did materialize in September -- those being a decline in government payrolls and a extra boost from the information sector."


"This is critical, this is the most important data that we have seen this cycle... This is going to get people's attention."

"This confirms that most of the negativity we have seen in the market is derived from the market itself and not the data," he said."


"The way the market's been recently, we'll take any bit of good news. This removes some of the concern that the labor market is getting worse. Stock futures shot up and the dollar fell -- a pure risk-on reaction. If the euro runs beyond $1.3550, it could be a really tough day for the dollar. The revisions from last month were positive and give people a slightly brighter view of the landscape. But overall, this still isn't that many jobs, so while it's better than it could be, it's not great."


"It's a breath of fresh air and should allow the risk recovery we've had this week to continue. It's still just one month's worth of data and the drop in the ISM employment index bodes ill for the coming months. This number is likely distorted, too, by the return of the Verizon strikers. But even so, revisions to the prior month were positive and the household survey showed a larger increase as well.

"All in all, it suggests a continuation of the risk recovery and that the U.S. will outperform other developed economies. That means the dollar should weaken and the yen crosses should move higher as people take on more risk."


"They look awfully good relative to last month. It is very hard to tell what it means because you average the two months and you are still looking at 50,000 each, but certainly it is very promising. Hopefully it is sustainable and continues so that we can avoid recession. If we keep up like this we will certainly avoid that."

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

Hopium fix is in, now it's time time to polish that turd...

Racer's picture

Computers don't have 'guts' they just fish around for stops to trigger on whichever headline they feel has the most wrongfoot real traders with guts

DeadFred's picture

Hard slogging for the little bots above 1180. Any little thing will send them running for cover.

Dr. Engali's picture

What a bunch of weenies. How about the fact that half the numbers of jobs were from the returning Verizon workers and the other half was from the birth/death?

Dick Darlington's picture

"Better than expected" brigade don't care. It doesn't matter if any number is good or bad in itself, all they care if it's better than expected. And it's too funny how people look at these numbers like they actually mean something. Economists try to estimate a number which in itself is some vague estimate.

dracos_ghost's picture

Even more interesting is how Verizon strikers returning to work is bullish for the Euro according Mr. Doyle.

bigwavedave's picture

If anyone has read the book Fight Club. We can expect all positive news to be FADED on this blog. Yeah its all a crock of shit and the lies continue. The time wasting can kicking continues. The theivery and robbery continues. But is anyone else tired of the manipulation also of this blog?

firstdivision's picture

What? Huh?  I'm sorry, I'm too busy jerking off to your avatar to pay attention to words.

Race Car Driver's picture

You didn't miss much... looks like the ramblings of someone strung out on hopium.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

dave went junk-magnet!

tyler is drinking too heavily to care about the MSM-ness of this nanny crap!

tyler & slewie want to hook up VIMOMBI NSHOM, ECONOMIST, w/ peter tchir!

bong BiCheZ!

cosmictrainwreck's picture

is that your sister? or just a friend?

sabra1's picture

that's his father after the first phase of his sex change operation!

Commander Cody's picture

Well, Dave, I guess its a matter of opinion.  Is the news merely positive, immensely positive, barely positive, positive but in a negative sense, or dubiously positive since almost all utterings/data from the pols/.gov cannot be trusted?  Actually, all TD did was to present others' opinions.  Make of it what you will.  You just might be too quick to complain.  Alternatively, if you don't like the message, simply ignore the messenger.  And if you think the NFP report is positive in whatever way, then that's OK.

homersimpson's picture

Um.. you are on a website called ZERO HEDGE, not ZERO RISK.

Manipulation? You mean manipulation like Tyler and everyone at ZH assumes you're too stupid to see the forest for the trees? Manipulation as in the mass media being a mouthpiece for the government and all the big corporations? Manipulation as in the real estate industry always saying it's a good time to buy with lousy data to prove their point.

Go elsewhere if you're tired of this "manipulation" on ZH, go start your own website called we'll see how popular your viewpoints are.

indygo55's picture

Damn! I was really looking forward to reading something there! Sarc on.


Commander Cody's picture

Ah.  All is well.  Risk on!

Dick Darlington's picture


"This is critical, this is the most important data that we have seen this cycle... This is going to get people's attention."

"This confirms that most of the negativity we have seen in the market is derived from the market itself and not the data," he said."


Messianic's picture

"The market is negative because the market is negative."  What insight...

Stumpy's picture

Feedback loop coming in 3... 2... 1...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Expected eCONomist response.  Now about those unfunded liabilities, bank CDS's, and government defecits...   ... all the same I will be selling into this rip...  thanks.

Seasmoke's picture

boy those are disgusting comments.......

DeadFred's picture

How many minutes did they have to write this piece. Those are all the comments prepared last night and read off column C titled 'NFP somewhat above expectations'

LoneStarHog's picture

Does the aggregation of idiots constitute the belief of the existence of a SINGLE brain cell?

TheBreaks's picture

It would be fantastic if ZeroHedge wasn't always "perma-bear" and helped its readers pick the up movements (even if only short-term) as well as the down.

Lots of great analysis in here but the spin is always negative - 100% of the time.  That is not particlarly helpful - pumping fear I'm sure boosts hits but achieving hits through quality is more admirable than pure fear-pumping.

I expect that you are right that there is a major risk of things falling apart in the next few weeks, and it's probably dumb money and/or fund managers looking to pump their bonuses jumping in right now in hoping for a run into Christmas, but if that run is going to happen then it would be better for ZeroHedge to help its readers profit from that than merely telling everyone how insanely wrong the bulls are as it runs up.

LoneStarHog's picture

Truth does not equal SPIN

Dr. Engali's picture

You just don't get it. The point is to see the truth and cut through the crap. The markets are going to do what they are going to do. But at least we get a good analysis of the truth withouth the perma bull gotta sell you some stocks bullshit.

DeadFred's picture

You're best served by hitting another site with a positive, but not cheerleading, spin and decide between the two outlooks.

indygo55's picture

Power of positive thinking.

homersimpson's picture

You obviously haven't been here very long. Besides - you can only fool people in thinking dog poop is a fresh hot dog for a very short period of time..

Go start your own website or play with your friends like HarryWanger if you want to be an economic pollyanna based on limited facts and skewed government numbers.

TheBreaks's picture

I want full facts and help appreciating when numbers are skewed just like you, but I also want to be able make money when the market goes up, not only when it goes down.  Simple as that.  For anyone here to say they don't want that, they're either irrational or just mucking around.  If a short squeeze is coming - even if it is only a short squeeze in a secular bear market - I want help knowing that so that I can close my shorts or even buy into it.  This site could be so much more useful if it didn't miss out on the up movements.

junkyardjack's picture

It looks like the pop from the NFP is done, did you get your trades in for the 20 minute rally?

TheBreaks's picture

Nope - but did you set your shorts at the top of the pop?  and if so will you risk the weekend on them?

junkyardjack's picture

I have a few companies that I'm watching waiting for them to break.  They've still been covering.  I think shorting the overall market is hard because there's a lot of different companies (obviously) but I don't necessarily think that every company is crap.  I wouldn't necessarily think that MCD would fall 50%, yea it could happen but I'd rather concentrate on companies that I think have poor business models or will be very badly affected by a recession than to wait for an entire break of the full market, quality names and all.

junkyardjack's picture

I think its depends on your trading time.  There are times where you can hop in to a short squeeze and pull 20% in a day or two but you run the risk of the stock collapsing back down at the same pace.  There are some good companies out there but their stocks haven't been hit much to try to buy the dip, most of the companies that are causing the huge swings appear to be bad companies, MS ran up what 18% in a day are they really a quality investment that you'd want to buy and turn your back on for more than an hour? I don't quite think so but I could be wrong.  Yes Zerohedge is ultra bearish but most of the news out is bearish, even if you're looking to go long the site is helpful because you'll be more likely to get out when things start moving against you than if you only read the recovery is in and recession is over.

i-dog's picture

Cramer makes lots of buy recommendations. You're wasting your time here ... tune in to Mad Money on CNBS and you'll make your fortune.

Kina's picture

It would be fantastic if ZeroHedge wasn't always "perma-bear"


Zerohedge is always perma-reality. And unfortunately the reality is total shit with little relief in site.


There are plenty of MSM sites that will polish every turd to placate the public and help bleed their pockets.


Only one way the USA can get out of this problem and that is if there is decent global growth. But it aint coming despite the trillions spent everywhere on the planet. Now we see global GDP contracting with soveriegns with a ton more debt than they began with.


To wit - things are much worse than they were at the begining.  That is the reality - Zerohedge would be no better than any other MSM turd polisher if decided to dress up reality in sexy clothes.

Messianic's picture

I suppose Tyler could start taking particular sides of a debate which he doesn't actually believe in just to satisfy some people that he be "balanced." But my guess is this site would go down the tubes like every other watered down piece of garbage that defies what it actually sees as the truth just to satisfy some thin-skinned person's sensibilities.

If you think Zerohedge goes too far in one direction, compensate for it yourself in your judgments about reality and work it into your overall picture of how things actually are.  But don't bring this "Tyler, you shouldn't be a bear all the time even though you actually believe that degree of bearishness is consonant with reality" garbage. It's annoying and unrealistic.

Approach the facts and comment or don't.

TheBreaks's picture

The truth may be that everything is on the precipice of falling apart - but if the people out there buying shares are feeling greedy then what good is the truth to you as you sit on the sideline while the market runs up 10% or even suffer as it does so because you're short?

Market sentiment and the dumb money do move markets and it is wrong of this blog to completely ignore it as it does - except when it's negative of course, then this blog is all over it.

indygo55's picture

I wish I could be positive even when the shit is hitting the fan. This economy is a fucking disaster and millions of people are suffering. Read this:



St. Deluise's picture

would be very hard to not sell this sort of news.

to buy back monday morning, of course.

John Law Lives's picture

The 45.3 million Americans on Food Stamps don't feel like there is a recovery:

TheBreaks's picture

Dr. Engali - my point is that it's hypocritical of this blog to pump its hits by being perma bear just as it criticises the financial institutions and media for pumping perma bull-shit to the masses.  It's great that ZH outs the manipulation of the naive and hopeful, but its hypocritical that it itself feeds off the hits of the fearful.

It just needs to be more balanced.  We'd all make more money if it was.

YesWeKahn's picture

Ok, the 4 days bull run is done, it is time to be bear again.

This employment number thing doesn't change the fact that Europe is dead.

PulauHantu29's picture

All opitmistic and full of BS...they sound like realtors.

campag's picture

help -these figures dont mean a thing - oil jumps up $1.50 - Russell 2000 +9points.

cant see any point in trading . i am doing this for a living for the last 30 years -must need my head tested . it is the saddest of times .

thunderchief's picture

If there was ever, ever a reason to vote for more hope and change in 2012, you just got it. 

Obama is now a shoe in for 2012.

He just created over 100+K jobs.

This man is a genius.  All the credit goes to him.

100+K new Jobs!

New ones that no one has ever had before.

Jobs that say change is in the air.

It's a win win day. 

Everyone should be jumping for Joy.  Or at least be happy.

No sad faces today.  And just to rub it all in, go get a fresh carton of eggs and few baseball bats, and help those cops take care of those lefty pinko punks trashing our finest financial institutons on wall street.  The Marines are busy bringing freedom and democracy to Afghanistan.  Do your part Americana.  Hope and change is in the air today.  Take a wiff.  You can smell it.  Breath it in.