Summarizing Wall Street's Reaction To The NFP Data
As usual, Reuters is the first with a compilation of Wall Street's gut reaction to the NFP data.
VIMOMBI NSHOM, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS:
"Although positive and above consensus (60k), the growth was not enough to reduce the unemployment rate, which is still at 9.1%. The market had expected a smaller count based on some 'corrective' movement in both the private and public sector, which had depressed August's nonexistent payroll growth (which is now reported as having added 57k jobs). In addition to August's revision, July payrolls at 127k (originally 85k) expands the job market by 99k than originally thought. Today's report amounts to 287k jobs created in Q3. The expected suppressive and supportive influences to detract and add to jobs creation did materialize in September -- those being a decline in government payrolls and a extra boost from the information sector."
JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, AT HARRIS PRIVATE BANK IN CHICAGO:
"This is critical, this is the most important data that we have seen this cycle... This is going to get people's attention."
"This confirms that most of the negativity we have seen in the market is derived from the market itself and not the data," he said."
JOHN DOYLE, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, TEMPUS CONSULTING, WASHINGTON
"The way the market's been recently, we'll take any bit of good news. This removes some of the concern that the labor market is getting worse. Stock futures shot up and the dollar fell -- a pure risk-on reaction. If the euro runs beyond $1.3550, it could be a really tough day for the dollar. The revisions from last month were positive and give people a slightly brighter view of the landscape. But overall, this still isn't that many jobs, so while it's better than it could be, it's not great."
BRIAN DOLAN, CHIEF STRATEGIST, FOREX.COM, BEDMINSTER, NEW JERSEY:
"It's a breath of fresh air and should allow the risk recovery we've had this week to continue. It's still just one month's worth of data and the drop in the ISM employment index bodes ill for the coming months. This number is likely distorted, too, by the return of the Verizon strikers. But even so, revisions to the prior month were positive and the household survey showed a larger increase as well.
"All in all, it suggests a continuation of the risk recovery and that the U.S. will outperform other developed economies. That means the dollar should weaken and the yen crosses should move higher as people take on more risk."
KURT KARL, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, SWISS RE, NEW YORK:
"They look awfully good relative to last month. It is very hard to tell what it means because you average the two months and you are still looking at 50,000 each, but certainly it is very promising. Hopefully it is sustainable and continues so that we can avoid recession. If we keep up like this we will certainly avoid that."
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