Goldman recaps the past week's main events in 3 short sentences, and provides a bulletin of the main known global events in the coming days.
Last week's price action was dominated by better macro data across the globe. PMI numbers improved and positively surprised in virtually every country with the notable exception of Switzerland. US labour market data towards the end of the week added to the positive macro news and also improved by more than markets expected. In light of this news, pro-cyclical assets performed well across the board and the dollar was on the backfoot against most currencies.
In contrast with better news from macro data, the negotiations about the next Greek package intensified and this will likely remain the key focus in the upcoming week. On one hand, the present value reduction in a PSI has still not been formally agreed. On the other, the Greek Government still has to commit to more reforms in order for the Troika to agree to a new program. A key deadline for this commitment is on Monday at 11am local time in Athens. Eurogroup President Juncker has talked openly about the possibility of a default on Saturday in the German weekly Der Spiegel.
Beyond the ongoing focus on Greece, the week sees a relatively heavy concentration in central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB, BOE, Poland, Indonesia and a few others. On the data side, the focus is likely on the December IP numbers due in a number of countries, including in some key Eurozone countries (Germany, Italy, France).
Monday February 6
Indonesia GDP (Q4): We expect 6.1%yoy vs. consensus of 6.45, after 6.5% in Q3.
Germany Factory Orders (Dec): Consensus expects 1.0%mom after -4.8% in November.
Eurogroup Finance Minister Meeting
Also Interesting: Taiwan Jan CPI, Australia Dec Retail Sales, Fed speeches by Bullard and Fisher
Tuesday February 7
Taiwan Exports (Jan): Consensus expects -17%yoy after 0.6% in December.
RBA Meeting: We expect a 25bp cut to 4.00% in line with consensus.
Germany IP (Dec): Consensus expects 0.1%mom after -0.6% in November.
Bernanke Testifies before Senate Budget Committee.
Merkel Speech on Europe's Future.
Also interesting: Hungary/Norway Dec IP, Philippines/Russia Jan CPI, SNB speech (Jordan)
Wednesday February 8
Poland CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 4.50%.
Also Interesting: Turkey/Spain Dec IP, Japan Dec Current Account.
Thursday February 9
ECB Meeting: We expect no change, in line with consensus.
BOE Meeting: We expect no change in the rate from 0.50%, but a £50bn increase in QE, in line with consensus.
Indonesia CB Meeting: We expect no change from 6.00% in line with consensus.
Korea CB Meeting: We expect no change from 3.25%, in line with consensus.
Peru CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 4.25%.
China CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 4.0%yoy after 4.1% in December.
UK IP (Dec): Consensus expects 0.2%mom after -0.7% in November.
Also Interesting: Mexico Jan CPI, Sweden/Malaysia/South Africa Dec IP, Japan Dec Machine Orders
Friday February 10
India IP (Dec): We expect 2.0%yoy compared with 5.9% in November.
France IP (Dec): Consensus expects a decline of 0.8%mom after 1.1% in November.
China Exports (Jan): Consensus expects -1.5%yoy after 13.4% in December.
U Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Consensus expects 74 after 75 in January.
Bernanke Speech on Housing
Also Interesting: Switzerland/Brazil/Norway Jan CPI, Italy/Sweden Dec IP