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Summary Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman recaps the past week's main events in 3 short sentences, and provides a bulletin of the main known global events in the coming days.

Last week's price action was dominated by better macro data across the globe. PMI numbers improved and positively surprised in virtually every country with the notable exception of Switzerland. US labour market data towards the end of the week added to the positive macro news and also improved by more than markets expected. In light of this news, pro-cyclical assets performed well across the board and the dollar was on the backfoot against most currencies.

In contrast with better news from macro data, the negotiations about the next Greek package intensified and this will likely remain the key focus in the upcoming week. On one hand, the present value reduction in a PSI has still not been formally agreed. On the other, the Greek Government still has to commit to more reforms in order for the Troika to agree to a new program. A key deadline for this commitment is on Monday at 11am local time in Athens. Eurogroup President Juncker has talked openly about the possibility of a default on Saturday in the German weekly Der Spiegel.

Beyond the ongoing focus on Greece, the week sees a relatively heavy concentration in central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB, BOE, Poland, Indonesia and a few others. On the data side, the focus is likely on the December IP numbers due in a number of countries, including in some key Eurozone countries (Germany, Italy, France).

 

Monday February 6

Indonesia GDP (Q4): We expect 6.1%yoy vs. consensus of 6.45, after 6.5% in Q3.

Germany Factory Orders (Dec): Consensus expects 1.0%mom after -4.8% in November.

Eurogroup Finance Minister Meeting

Also Interesting: Taiwan Jan CPI, Australia Dec Retail Sales, Fed speeches by Bullard and Fisher

 

Tuesday February 7

Taiwan Exports (Jan): Consensus expects -17%yoy after 0.6% in December.

RBA Meeting: We expect a 25bp cut to 4.00% in line with consensus.

Germany IP (Dec): Consensus expects 0.1%mom after -0.6% in November.

Bernanke Testifies before Senate Budget Committee.

Merkel Speech on Europe's Future.

Also interesting: Hungary/Norway Dec IP, Philippines/Russia Jan CPI, SNB speech (Jordan)

 

Wednesday February 8

Poland CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 4.50%.

Also Interesting: Turkey/Spain Dec IP, Japan Dec Current Account.

 

Thursday February 9

ECB Meeting: We expect no change, in line with consensus.

BOE Meeting: We expect no change in the rate from 0.50%, but a £50bn increase in QE, in line with consensus.

Indonesia CB Meeting: We expect no change from 6.00% in line with consensus.

Korea CB Meeting: We expect no change from 3.25%, in line with consensus.

Peru CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 4.25%.

China CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 4.0%yoy after 4.1% in December.

UK IP (Dec): Consensus expects 0.2%mom after -0.7% in November.

Also Interesting: Mexico Jan CPI, Sweden/Malaysia/South Africa Dec IP, Japan Dec Machine Orders

 

Friday February 10

India IP (Dec): We expect 2.0%yoy compared with 5.9% in November.

France IP (Dec): Consensus expects a decline of 0.8%mom after 1.1% in November.

China Exports (Jan): Consensus expects -1.5%yoy after 13.4% in December.

U Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Consensus expects 74 after 75 in January.

Bernanke Speech on Housing

Also Interesting: Switzerland/Brazil/Norway Jan CPI, Italy/Sweden Dec IP

 

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Mon, 02/06/2012 - 07:49 | 2130061 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

they 'ain't never going to agree.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 07:49 | 2130062 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Agreed!

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 08:01 | 2130074 buckethead
buckethead's picture

But they will agree to disagree.

Consensus at last.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 08:55 | 2130129 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

I really hope that Greece will default

this endless bailout and money for nothing shit has to stop !

its been like watching an endless rerun of the "Why did the Treasury and Fed let Lehman fail but rescue Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and A.I.G." especially AIG with the CDS swaps for Goldman Sachs.

I am soo sick of this shit and I bet most other ex-longterm Investors who had overnight morphed into high frequency day-traders by force of circumstance, feel a lot like I do.

If Greece gets this second free bailout and more free money thrown at it without paying down debt and

reducing its spending and deficit blow-out in any meaningful way - it will just be like an endless re-run of of the "Why did the Treasury and Fed let Lehman fail but rescue Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and A.I.G." especially AIG with the CDS swaps for Goldman Sachs.

I feel like I am in an Asylum trying to make sense of it all from the inside out -

if you know what I mean. with the inmates running the Asylum and everything else.

There is NO WAY that I will risk my money in this shit ponzi free bail-out rigged financial market casino.

I have lost $300,000 AUD in my Superanuation Fund, all investments in what I was told were"safe" blue chip

investments. To my great shock and surprise I discovered that my own Superfund had colluded with Hedgefunds to lend out my Investments which were short-sold by the hedgefund and then given back to the Superfund after the shareprice had been sold down by 50%. I pulled my money out of that Superfund, but it was too late.The damage was done.It was like lending your Car to someone and they bring it back, after it's been in a total Write off...

I had no Idea that my own Retirement fund could rent out my shares to some hedgefund, crash the share-value and then place it back, while i than was stuck with the losses of devalued assets. There is a big difference between a Bank and a Hedgefund.I learned that the real hard way..Only i never even invested in a Hedgefund...My Retirement Fund did it...

Often they work in collusion, sometimes there is little difference, as in Goldman Sachs..

I think there is something wrong with naked short-selling or naked CDS...

why should you be able to sell something you don't owe?

Greece is like a cross-road coming up.

Will we keep going down the road of endless free money?

that way there is no way to find real value... I am thinking of buying a small sailing-boat

and perhaps sailing the pacific for a few years to make some sense of it all.

I might sail to the mediteranian and maybe even apply for a bail-out to improve my livestyle..

If Greece will be allowed to default, that could be a sign of some progress,some reality check..

but I will not hold my breath! Change often only comes after complete and total defeat...

There can Not be any more Resolutions for any more bail-outs for Greece !

If Greece gets another free bailout, lets all just retire right now, put our feet up and lets all just live of free handouts and bailouts from now on for ever more...

just a few thoughts to plan my next moves,

but it won't be in a rigged ponzi market that provides endless bailouts from my money!

wr;)

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2130229 falak pema
falak pema's picture

so both Ron Paul and Patriots lost...

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