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Summary Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Goldman's summary of events in the past week, and what to expect in the next 5 days.

Last week, there were relatively few US data releases, but Initial Jobless Claims continued to surprise on the positive side, while U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment saw a small decline. This week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday with guidance on the Fed's balance sheet will be the key event. Aside from the Fed, there will be many key releases in the US with IP, CPI, and the regional business surveys. The market expects an increase of 0.6%mom in IP, 0.3%mom in CPI, and small gains in the surveys. This week, we will also release the Advance GLI, wherein it will be key to watch if the pace of improvement in momentum slows further.?

?In Europe last week, the ECB left rates on hold as expected and the BoE increased asset purchases by £50bn to £325bn. ECB President Draghi pointed out that eligibility of collateral was increased by around €200bn, and there has been little indication of any immediate further action both on the interest rate and the non-standard measures side. For the upcoming Q4 GDP release in the Euro area, we expect a contraction of 0.3%qoq a touch milder than consensus at -0.4%qoq. In the UK, the inflation report and CPI number this coming week will be key to watch. We expect inflation to slow to 3.7%yoy from 4.2% in December.?

?In Greece, negative headlines over the new austerity package on Friday caused some reversal of the rally in the first part of the week, and as a result, we were stopped out of our short $/CAD recommendation (for a small potential gain). However, the Greek cabinet agreed on the new austerity measures late on Friday, and parliament appears to be on track for a positive vote. The Eurogroup meeting scheduled this coming week will be important to watch as well, and Greek GDP will give a sense of the cyclical damage caused by austerity.

Monday, February 13

  • Japan GDP (Q4): We expect -1.3%qoq ann, in line with consensus after 5.6% in Q3.
  • Mexico IP (Dec): Consensus expects 2.8%yoy after 3.2% in November.
  • Also interesting: Turkey/Poland/Czech Dec CA

Tuesday, February 14

  • UK CPI (Jan): We expect 3.7%yoy vs consensus of 3.6% after 4.2% in December.
  • Euro area IP (Dec): Consensus expects -1.2%mom after -0.1% in November.
  • US Retail Sales (Jan): Consensus expects 0.8%mom after 0.1% in December.
  • BoJ Meeting: We expect no change from 0.10%, in line with consensus.
  • India WPI (Jan): We expect 6.7%yoy, in line with consensus after 7.5% in December.
  • Chile CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 5.00%.
  • Also interesting: Hungary Dec IP/Jan CPI, Greece Q4 GDP

Wednesday, February 15

  • France GDP (Q4): We expect -0.4%qoq vs consensus of -0.2% after 0.3% in Q3.
  • Germany GDP (Q4): We expect -0.2%qoq vs consensus of -0.3% after 0.5% in Q3.
  • Euro area GDP (Q4): We expect -0.3%qoq vs consensus of -0.4% after 0.2% in Q3.
  • US Empire Manufacturing: Consensus expects 14.8 after 13.5 in January.
  • US IP (Jan): Consensus expects 0.6%mom after 0.4% in December.
  • BOE King Speech
  • FOMC Minutes
  • Eurogroup Meeting
  • Also interesting: Italy/Malaysia Q4 GDP, UK Unemployment, BoE Inflation report, US TIC flows, Russia Jan IP, Poland CPI

Thursday, February 16

  • Riksbank Meeting: We expect a 25bp cut to 1.50%, in line with consensus.
  • Norway GDP (Q4): We expect 0.5%qoq, in line with consensus after 0.8% in Q3.
  • US Housing Starts (Jan): Consensus expects 2.1%mom after -4.1% in December.
  • Philadelphia Fed Survey: Consensus expects 9 after 7.3 in January.
  • Singapore GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 4.2%yoy after 3.6% in Q3.
  • Mexico GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 3.8%yoy after 4.5% in Q3.
  • Bernanke Speech
  • Also interesting: US Jan PPI, Australia Jan Unemployment, Sweden Jan CPI

Friday, February 17

  • UK Retail Sales (Jan): We expect 0.0%mom vs consensus of -0.3% after 0.6% in December.
  • US CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 0.3%mom after 0.0% in December.
  • Canada CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 0.3%mom after -0.6% in December.
 


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Sun, 02/12/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Ancona
Ancona's picture

Greece is on fire, and if these technocrats enslave the people with harsh austerity measures demanded by the banksters........there will be blood.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

What do those greeks think this is? A democracy?

There are 100.000 protesting. I wonder if those 67.000 who cashed pensions of death relatives for a decade are also marching....
Greeks should all realize they fucked it up as a group.
They should now start to wonder why there's no industry and where the new income will need to come from.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Obviously the income will come from repairing all of the broken windows.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment atomic180
atomic180's picture

How about Iran arn't they suppose to anounce to the world their latest nuclear accopmlishments....

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Ancona
Ancona's picture

WOW!! Three down arrows! You're harshing my mellow man!

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 05:12 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

are oecd leading indicators for the u.s. and for the world due out monday?  hussman says it's this week and should be considered carefully.  

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120213.htm

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

The dead socialists will vote in USSA "elections."

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Those are some shity numbers. 

And I am glad to see Bernanke speaking again!  Guess I have to buy some gold beore Thursday!

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

 

Key Events of the Week

Germany: waffle

France: posturing

Spain: waffle

Brussels: waffle

Britain: just keeping out of it

Portugal: waffle

Greece: toys outta the pram

(think i'll give it a miss.. wake me up for the weekend, cheers)

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

IT WILL ALL SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE (EVEN GREECE).  

 

ES TO 1380 THIS WEEK. 

 

THE ONLY BUMMER WILL BE WHITNEY HOUSTON.   (BUT ONLY FOR THE SHEEPLE).  

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The Whitney Top is in

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment boatwhiskers
boatwhiskers's picture

I agree, the algobots will quietly continue their push to somewhere near 1385 

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 02:29 | Link to Comment unemployable
unemployable's picture

Don't forget to wear your Sheeple T-Shirt to work this week

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/12/greece-eurozone-bailout-deal...

Greece set to defy protesters and accept eurozone bailout deal

Greece's parliament was expected to defy angry protesters on the streets of Athens and endorse a deeply unpopular package of savage austerity measures in order to try to avoid a sovereign default and retain the euro as its currency. With eurozone leaders declaring it was time for Greece to put up or shut up and that Athens' promises could no longer be believed, Greece's two main political parties and the caretaker prime minister invoked apocalyptic scenarios for the country if the €3.3bn (£2.76bn) of cuts ordained by the eurozone were not supported.

Well then, I'm looking forward to some hangin'!

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Germany was cruel to Greece last week only to convince the German voters that they are not funding a "bottomless pit."  Problem is: they are still funding a "bottomless pit."

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yuppies eating Greek yogurt and select olives tonight in a show of solidarity with average Greeks. 

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Let’s all be blessed that Janet [DHS] came out on Friday to affirm protecting the international slave trade firm, disguised as Globalisation.

  1.        Race card- failed
  2.        Fear card – in progress
  3.        Ignorance Card- Last ditch effort 

Pick A Bale Of Cotton 

Walter Lantz Productions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Lantz_Productions 

Hopefully, you can see thru the Central Planning vision in store for you.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture
Top 10 largest gold reserves by country 

 

http://www.futuresmag.com/Exclusives/2011/8/Pages/Global-Gold-Holdings.aspx

 

( a little secret------Greece is not in the Top Ten)

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 05:26 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

assuming the data is true, especially for the u.s., the most interesting point, to me, is the tiny fraction gold is of total reserves for so many, particularly asian, countries (e.g. japan and china).   still enough value/weight to make the top ten list.  

when will they diversify with a real effort?

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 00:57 | Link to Comment Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

We know that the reality won't be as good as the fantasy presented by the official numbers. The latest bailout in Greece will disappear into the fog. with negligible results. They should wait for the fires to go out, before adding all of that paper to it.

http://thedailyclimb.wordpress.com/

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Can we squeeze in a quick war at around 2:30PM-ish next Thursday?

Fairly sure no one wants to listen to Bernanke rabbiting-on about his money printing efforts again any way.

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