Summary Of Key Events In The Coming Week
Goldman's summary of events in the past week, and what to expect in the next 5 days.
Last week, there were relatively few US data releases, but Initial Jobless Claims continued to surprise on the positive side, while U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment saw a small decline. This week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday with guidance on the Fed's balance sheet will be the key event. Aside from the Fed, there will be many key releases in the US with IP, CPI, and the regional business surveys. The market expects an increase of 0.6%mom in IP, 0.3%mom in CPI, and small gains in the surveys. This week, we will also release the Advance GLI, wherein it will be key to watch if the pace of improvement in momentum slows further.?
?In Europe last week, the ECB left rates on hold as expected and the BoE increased asset purchases by £50bn to £325bn. ECB President Draghi pointed out that eligibility of collateral was increased by around €200bn, and there has been little indication of any immediate further action both on the interest rate and the non-standard measures side. For the upcoming Q4 GDP release in the Euro area, we expect a contraction of 0.3%qoq a touch milder than consensus at -0.4%qoq. In the UK, the inflation report and CPI number this coming week will be key to watch. We expect inflation to slow to 3.7%yoy from 4.2% in December.?
?In Greece, negative headlines over the new austerity package on Friday caused some reversal of the rally in the first part of the week, and as a result, we were stopped out of our short $/CAD recommendation (for a small potential gain). However, the Greek cabinet agreed on the new austerity measures late on Friday, and parliament appears to be on track for a positive vote. The Eurogroup meeting scheduled this coming week will be important to watch as well, and Greek GDP will give a sense of the cyclical damage caused by austerity.
Monday, February 13
- Japan GDP (Q4): We expect -1.3%qoq ann, in line with consensus after 5.6% in Q3.
- Mexico IP (Dec): Consensus expects 2.8%yoy after 3.2% in November.
- Also interesting: Turkey/Poland/Czech Dec CA
Tuesday, February 14
- UK CPI (Jan): We expect 3.7%yoy vs consensus of 3.6% after 4.2% in December.
- Euro area IP (Dec): Consensus expects -1.2%mom after -0.1% in November.
- US Retail Sales (Jan): Consensus expects 0.8%mom after 0.1% in December.
- BoJ Meeting: We expect no change from 0.10%, in line with consensus.
- India WPI (Jan): We expect 6.7%yoy, in line with consensus after 7.5% in December.
- Chile CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 5.00%.
- Also interesting: Hungary Dec IP/Jan CPI, Greece Q4 GDP
Wednesday, February 15
- France GDP (Q4): We expect -0.4%qoq vs consensus of -0.2% after 0.3% in Q3.
- Germany GDP (Q4): We expect -0.2%qoq vs consensus of -0.3% after 0.5% in Q3.
- Euro area GDP (Q4): We expect -0.3%qoq vs consensus of -0.4% after 0.2% in Q3.
- US Empire Manufacturing: Consensus expects 14.8 after 13.5 in January.
- US IP (Jan): Consensus expects 0.6%mom after 0.4% in December.
- BOE King Speech
- FOMC Minutes
- Eurogroup Meeting
- Also interesting: Italy/Malaysia Q4 GDP, UK Unemployment, BoE Inflation report, US TIC flows, Russia Jan IP, Poland CPI
Thursday, February 16
- Riksbank Meeting: We expect a 25bp cut to 1.50%, in line with consensus.
- Norway GDP (Q4): We expect 0.5%qoq, in line with consensus after 0.8% in Q3.
- US Housing Starts (Jan): Consensus expects 2.1%mom after -4.1% in December.
- Philadelphia Fed Survey: Consensus expects 9 after 7.3 in January.
- Singapore GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 4.2%yoy after 3.6% in Q3.
- Mexico GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 3.8%yoy after 4.5% in Q3.
- Bernanke Speech
- Also interesting: US Jan PPI, Australia Jan Unemployment, Sweden Jan CPI
Friday, February 17
- UK Retail Sales (Jan): We expect 0.0%mom vs consensus of -0.3% after 0.6% in December.
- US CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 0.3%mom after 0.0% in December.
- Canada CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 0.3%mom after -0.6% in December.