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Summary Of Wall Street Expectations For Tomorrow's Hail Mary LTRO
As pointed out earlier, today's manic shift in market sentiment is being squarely attributed to the latest deux es out of Europe - the last Hail Mary attempt to come out of Europe - the 3 year LTRO, which was announced 2 weeks ago. So before said machnia becomes a flop ex, here is, courtesy of Bloomberg, a summary of Wall Street's expectations for what tomorrow will bring. Incidentally, the reason why the bulk of outlooks on the LTRO are negative, is because all this action does is push any real action from the record-levered ECB (whose balance sheet can be seen in its full perspective here) further back, and forces Europe's banks (and numerous American ones) to hope and pray they can survive one more [day|week|month] on their own without real central bank support.
BARCLAYS
- Take-up may total EU250b-300b with peripherals borrowing a majority
- ECB’s 1-day operation offers insight on LTRO
BROCKHOUSE COOPER
- Sarkozy’s plan for banks to use 3-yr LTRO funding to buy sovereign debt is “circular logic”
EXANE BANK
- 3-yr LTRO not a QE substitute, won’t end crisis
FTN
- Total take-up may be misleading as EU banks will be able to roll previous term borrowings into 3-yr
- Market speculation about bond buying w/LTRO funds is wrong
MONUMENT SECURITIES
- ECB’s “non-standard” measures are no QE
NOMURA
- Banks will use 3-yr LTRO borrowings to shore up funding levels dictated by EBA and Basel
RBS
- LTRO take-up may be as much as EU550b
UNICREDIT
- 3-yr LTRO take-up may fall between EU300b-330b after ECB’s special one-day funding operation
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What's "deux es"? A French-traded 2x S&P 500 futures ETF? :)
MS/GS/DB are more positive about LTRO than the above crew.
The acronym LTRO reminds me of wrestlings' Monday NITRO. And its about as real.
No, it's actually a greek thing, if I remember correctly. In ancient greek productions, it's the god that gets sent in from the sky (via rope) to save the good guy from his fate.
You're thinking of deus ex, and of course Tyler was too. Just a little tongue-in-cheek razzing on the typo.
It's a Belgian trying to order a Dos Equix. ;)
I don't always dip my waffles in beer, but when I do...
That is funny.
I thought I read somewhere that you buy vol when you can, not when you have to.
Ex Vagina is closer to reality
Close.
It's deus ex machina. The arrival of a God onto the scene via machine.
It was done in ancient literature to solve obstacles the characters of the story faced. They stared at some overwhelming problem and a God would arrive to magically deal with it.
It's considered weak story telling. The writer is supposed to be more clever and find a way for the characters to solve the problems themselves, via clues left earlier in the story that the reader didn't latch onto.
lord people. "Deus ES" is a deliberate play on "Deus ex", not a typo.
'EXANE BANK
3-yr LTRO not a QE substitute, won’t end crisis'
Simple, succinct and sober. All you need.
LTRO = Long Term Refiddling Operation
who cares ..all we need is a little rally to make money ...and then another collapse to make money again .....guys these central bankers have given us the OPPORtunity of a life time to mint money like never before....THANKS TO THE CONSPIRACY
Well 'QE' cant end any crisis either. Theyre just discussing whether to dump supreme or mid grade fuel on the fire.
And now a word from the Banking Queen...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/12/19/barney_frank_wears_rev...
All I can say is... O. M. G. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ew.
Eu.
Moobs to make a centerfold jealous over the sheer mass.
STD?
So uh if this was annouced two weeks ago, why is market going up today?
Actually the market is going up because it was a bit cloudy this morning
It’s an artificial market that they are running up and down. Until the direction is confirmed they are going to use it to make money, to catch the retail investors. It’s a small (banker) world after all.
to the moon then back with a thud
3-yr LTRO not a QE substitute, won’t end crisis
Since when does this market need logic to rally. All we need is pixie dust and fairies.
we have a nice and a very high WOLFE wave target in gold...this is one of the few buy opportunity::
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold-targets-higher.html
Something is going on. PIG yields keep falling and core yields rise. Might be the ECB, might be banks buying sov debt. IMF/Hungary Bailout Talks Stall – Hungary Benchmark Rate Rises (But 10yr Sov Yields Fall) – US Treasury Yields Increase – ECB Balance Sheet Is HUGE!http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
Heads up. The Greek FinMIn is putting out statements about debt negotiations with PSI's for some reason. Wonder if this could be due to them missing yesterday's redemption payout?
Who cares about Europe? The HFT bots don't. US$ weakness=Stock Market rally.
I swear to you, this is NOT an "Onion" piece.
The United States Postal Service (USPS) has been granted a Congressional reprieve of the looming $5.5 billion retirement payment that was due back in September.
The payment's deadline had already been extended twice. According to the Washington Post, "Buried within the omnibus spending package that funds government operations through September is language giving USPS until August to prefund the future retirements of hundreds of thousands of workers, as required by law." “We are pleased that the action taken by Congress and the president once again prevents the Postal Service from defaulting on the $5.5 billion payment to prefund retiree health benefits,” David Partenheimer said.Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/316415#ixzz1h5ZO7sFv See? No default here! Merely the inability to meet our fiscal obligations as set by law. Extend. Pretend.
Merely the inability to meet our fiscal obligations as set by law. Extend. Pretend.
Since when does the rule of law apply any more? It certainly doesn't in Euro land ,and it doesn't here either. Well to you and me it does....
More imaginary money out of thin air....yea that should solve it this time.
I had the opportunity to meet a number of very nice hispanic couples this weekend who are nearing retirment after working 30+ years as mechanics at the LA Dept of Water and teachers in the LA schools. They were so looking forward to retirement to travel the world with their combined incomes exceed ing$200,000 per year and knowing they were guaranteed free medical care for life. None of the people were degreed and were 55 years old. Life is so good. Unions are so good. When I mentioned that the CA pension system is running a $500 billion deficit they said that will only impact the new union members because they have a guarantee. They were also delighted that their 25 year old kids were on their medical plans w/o any costs. So there are two classes in So. CA. ....Union and non union. I also met other couples who worked for 30 years as contractors and they are losing their home and near bankruptcy. God bless America.
I had the opportunity to meet a couple of very nice hispanic girls this weekend, who are nowehere near retirement, but already have worked 5+ years as street hookers. They are not looking forward to continuing working the streets, earning between $50 and $200 per night, mostly doing cheap tricks and handjobs. Medical care is far out of reach, even in spite of the serious health dangers the occupation brings along. There are no unions for hookers. But there are nevertheless classes: Street hookers and high-end prostitutes. I have never met a high-end escort, as I cannot afford them. Hookers in general do not care about economic crisis. "If there is any effect at all, it's that the guys are frequenting them more often in order to blow of steam. You know, booze, sex, and gambling run best during depressions," one of them told me. God bless America.
One day after xmas, and before Armageddon year begins, we must organise on ZH a competition to determine whose avatar has the best boobs!
Obama job approval is recovering and he will be re-elected. Mark my words.
Does it matter who POTUS is?
Puppet masters remain the same.
Although was looking forward to President Romney starting trade war with China on first day of presidency.
Does it matter what comes out of their mouths PRE election vs what they DO POST election (except RP) ? Its part of the divide and conquer strategy perfected by the oligarchy if you actually pay attention to that spewed garbage.
The NFL wins the Super Bowl every year.
I have marked your words, O Oracle, in duck soup gravy served like sacred ointment to my lips. I await the roast turkey next week-end, my plat de resistance, when the LTRO launch proves once again we live in an "oh so boring" world of smooth sailing amongst those silly icebergs that ZH keeps shouting about every day; Iceland Ahoy! on starboard! Bottoms up, and topping week of joyous rejoicing, as we forget the looming shadow of Banco's ghost.
There's life in the old € yet.
Yes of course, look at who is buying Euros. The switch back to shorting dollars by the same people will come. It' an old game and the loosers are mostly the same too.
Whats so different about these other banker's opinions vs Goldman's? None of them are acting/recommending on their client's behalf, so maybe they are all poo-pooing out of their mouths while silently buying up shit. Who else is in the markets these days anyways?
When the government makes up rules as it goes along and ignores or circumvents the law, you then know that we are back to kings and dictatorships and you have again entered serfdom...
As the global economy sinks in quicksand the plan is : just try a bit more struggling
It's gone from amazing to downright entertaining to see how far central banks, governments and the top of the food chain financial honchos can stretch their denial. The world is melting down around them but they still believe.
This is getting crazy at the Central Banks!
Clash of the Titans: Fed Versus ECB Balance Sheets. ECB Offers As Much Money As Banks Want for 1,124 Days!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
LTRO! Hmm!
Are you sure it's not LOTR? Lord of the Rings?
Definition
LTROLong-Term Recovery Organization
LTROLong Term Recovery Office (FEMA)
LTROLocate the Remaining Oil (Shell)
LTROLand Title Record Office (US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs office)
LTROLegal Technology Resource Officer
LTROLocate Target Remaining Oil
High end hookers work for and are taken care of by the union class. Low end hookers work for the non union class. My point is that race, religion, education means nothing in the new economy. Its whether you are or dependent on unions. If not then you are screwed and have no economic future.
TD, looks like the bearded bastard (ben not santa) tipped his hand to the boyz. Look out above and GTFO of all shorts
Christine LAgarde is making ominous noises in Lagos, Nigeria, at African conference, saying that world is heading more and more into dangerous waters, especially because of Euro debt; that it could have severe repercussions on developping economies, and that "all will depend in the way Euro zone puts into place the instruments it has/will create."
I get the feeling she is hinting that this LTRO steaming on smoothly at launch date will be a crucial test. Mamma Mia, the Titanic!
This sounds liek a name for some kind of crazy Euro-Trash BDSM sex fuck machine........Just say N.
Stop the madness please let the red pill kick in the blue pill is making the walls drip.
Don't take it soo hard; I'm sure it's just a 300 point short covering squeeze engineered by mysterious cabalists, as always.
The irony being that the more they need, the more they become dependent upon an unsustainable funding mechanism. Won't end well for the ECB.
My word.
If the markets can't figure out that LTRO is a really bad way of recycling debt and shifting risk for the benefit of issuing peripheral sovereigns... there's just really no hope.
Currency markets should be looking at the ballooning of the ECB balance sheet accordingly and trashing the Euro accordingly. While an expanding balance sheet is not necessarily a bad thing if used for productive purposes, this is far from being a productive exercise. Unless one finds value in can kicking.
Those that are taking on the new sovereign debt (and clearly there are those who are buying, given the Spanish auction results) should be in the crosshairs of the rating agencies for a significant downgrade. It's not as if Spain is any less a credit risk that the week or month before, now is it?
Essentially, LTRO does absolutely nothing towards determining whether a weak and indebted sovereign has the ablity to pay its mounting debts. It increases the ability for the sovereign to service and perhaps roll over its debt-- albeit temporarily. What gets left out of the equation is that the pricing of risk that was properly embedded by the market in any peripheral new issue is now being shifted to financial entities who are given "free ECB money" as an inducement to essentially pay a premium for risk and ride an artificial spread.
As middleman, the ECB is playing magician with no sleeves. Everyone sees the trick... and it's suprisingly enough to fool some people initially. But then, market participants will start to wonder where all that embedded risk is being shifted.
They won't like the answer.