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Supply Chain Slowdown Signals US Economic Slump Ahead
The American Chemistry Council's chief economist Kevin Swift created a 'Chemical Activity Barometer' which tracks chemical production and prices, hours worked at producers, and manufacturing output among other factors. As indicated in today's Bloomberg Chart-of-the-Day, this indicator, based on its 'earliness in the supply chain' provides a signal that "the outlook for the economy is slowing during the next six to nine months" since 96% of manufactured goods are derived in part from materials produced by the US chemical industry. Three-month declines of 3% or more have preceded all but one recession since 1947 and it is currently down over 2.5% from its highs in March suggesting sub-par growth is coming.
Source: Bloomberg
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See you in the NEW RECESSION soon.
But I haven't worn out my old recession yet!
NEED MOAR BATH SALTZ
Okay I musta missed this one.
Can someone pleez explain to me the origins of the "bath salts" meme? I'm lost.
"Bath Salts" = "Risk ON"
Bullish for pet food stocks now..
Man on K-2 eats K-9
Please do tell where you've been living for the past month.
maybe he was a face eating zombie for the past month. hint
Ah damn... I thought that maybe, just maybe, there was an isolated part of society out there which wasn't de-evolving into cannibals.
At BASF, we don't make recessions, we make recessions recessionier.
Head shops have been selling bath-salts which are heavy-duty intoxicants (poisons?) and folks have been getting profoundly fucked up by snorting them.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/06/25/f-faq-bath-salts.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_salts
cougar_w asked:
Sure, no prob.
The "bath salts"/"plant food" label:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designer_drug#Common_Names
Abstract: Novel drugs--novel branding
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8455
Abstract: Synthetic Cathinones (Bath Salts): Legal Status and Patterns of Abuse (March)
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8537
The chemicals:
MDPV (3,4-methylenedioxypyrovalerone)
http://www.erowid.org/chemicals/mdpv/
(includes links to more resources and media coverage)
Methylone (3,4-methylenedioxymethcathinone)
http://www.erowid.org/chemicals/methylone/
(includes links to more resources and media coverage)
Abstract: (MDPV): Chemistry, pharmacology and toxicology of a new designer drug of abuse marketed online
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8450
Abstract: Synthetic cathinones: Chemistry, pharmacology and toxicology of a new class of designer drugs of abuse marketed as 'bath salts' or 'plant food'
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8559
Abstract: The Toxicology of Bath Salts: A Review of Synthetic Cathinones
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8477
The effects:
Abstract: Illicit bath salts: not for bathing
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8517
Abstract: Recurrent Acute Kidney Injury Following Bath Salts Intoxication
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8480
Abstract: Emergency department visits after use of a drug sold as 'bath salts'
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8321
Abstract: Paranoid psychosis induced by consumption of methylenedioxypyrovalerone: two cases
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8405
Abstract: Bath Salt' Ingestion Leading to Severe Intoxication Delirium: Two Cases and a Brief Review of the Emergence of Mephedrone Use
http://www.erowid.org/references/refs_view.php?ID=8493
@cougar_w
The Florida cannibal who ate the homeless man's face off was reportedly high on bath salts. Thus, the phrophecy has been fulfilled. We WILL have zombie roving the planet and they will be high on bath salts.
These recessions don't bother me a bit, I was a failure during the boom
Maybe thingamagigs are being created at the Fed from thin air, much like fiat. That explains all, nothing to see here. move along.
The FED needs to start buying chemicals NOW!
Air-dropped from helicopters as usual, Sir?
I did'nt think we left the old one
The establishment media told us that the recession ended in June, 2009. What!? You don't believe the establishment media!? Shame on you! You are definitely a terrorist and an enemy of the state!
Tuco
next down leg will take employment to population ration from 58.7% where it is in latest reading to 55.7%, which will shed another 10 million jobs.
good luck finding tax revenue there
Tax revenue is for pussies.
I like pussies more than taxes, is that normal?
liking pussy is good, liking pussies is a bit sketchy
since 96% of manufactured goods are derived in part from materials produced by the US chemical industry.
Including the food.
things are booming at my meth lab
Do they report demand of Methylamine?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK3KhWC1ZFQ
Meth use cuts down on food use, farm land use thus soil erosion and increases cop,court, child services jobs thus helping the economy, and medical care/ rehab service raises the GDP!
( Now with no teeth lisp).....Uf.. F.. A!, ....Uf ..F..A! Weref..Umba Won!
Is "crack" considered a manufacured good? If so, Detroit is booming!
Great Posting Tyler!
This is fascinating indicator though I think in hyper wacko world we're in,reccession is already here! Just using up old inventory and very slow to reorder.
Just working hard to use best instrument to profit.
I got an instrument for you, China bot, right here!
Slump? No! Who could have seen that coming?
If the Fed wants to prop up chemical prices they had better put a major bid in Crude and Natty!
HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In my opinion, all economic decisions in this election year should take into account the possibility of war with Iran.
The implications of an extremely pro-Israel session at Romney’s retreat over the weekend is now being used as evidence that he may be even more pro-Israel on the ME than John McCain.
The closer Gov. Romney comes to being the Republican GOP candidate for president, the greater the criticism has become that he favors military action in the Middle East to support Israeli interests. For those hoping for a defeat of Obama in November, it’s important to remember that Obama edged out both Hillary Clinton and John McCain primarily because of the widespread of opposition to the Iraq War and Obama’s congressional vote against the war.
Ron Kampeas reports for JTA:The Global News Service of the Jewish People:
Romney to Jewish donors: ‘I get Israeli briefings’
By Ron Kampeas · June 24, 2012
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/06/24/3099041/romney-to-jewish-donors-i-get-israeli-briefings
Speaking of Iran, Oromney may be too late for the party.
It's probably not true because oil is not spiking and it's Debka.
http://www.debka.com/article/22133/British-forces-in-Syria-Assad-presidential-compound-said-under-attack
Debka is only good for teh lulz
When the hunt for Saddam was on they had him hiding everywhere but in a hole. They had Osama hiding in a container apartment on a tanker floating around the world.
“The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an anti-Assad group in Britain with a contact network in Syria, reported that 10 people were killed in Qudssaya. The Local Cordination Committees, an anti-Assad group in Syria that has been documenting casualties in the conflict, reported 33 killed in the Damascus suburbs of Qudssaya, Al Hameh and Dummar, as well as two killed in the capital. The group also released a list of people it said were among 21 massacred by Syrian forces in Al Hameh.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/world/middleeast/free-syrian-army-attacks-elite-damascus-guards.html
Ron Paul supporters and many indenpdents would never vote for another Neocon. Looks like gary Johnson will get the third party vote--doesn't matter-I think the powers that be are about to throw Obama under the bus-so Romney won't need their votes.. He has been so discredited (except among retards) that another fresh face will have to come in. Matters not -they control both parties.
Obama would do what he's told by big money, when he is told, just as Romney would. We're screwed either way.
That's old school data. The Bernanke Put fixes all. Hah [/sarcasm]
Speaking of the Bernanke Put, it looks like it takes a dip well below the 200 day before that gets called. Tomorrow's durable goods numbers may get that started.
great work
With the Euro at $1.25-ish, what would it need to get down to in order to promote export sales to offset these figures?
Ah. Another gauge to co-opt / compromise / suppress / manipulate. Go get 'em, my pretties!
You can add the Architectural Billing Index to those indicators rolling over.
http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/2012/0622/newsletter/ABI-may12.html
Just going from the charts looks to me like chem is more of a trailing indicator than a leading one.
Hard to tell but if you really did look the lines start to drop at the beginning of 08. PRE-recession. Again hard to say with this chart need better resolution and maybe some grid lines.
Don't be such a square.
Reading from left to right, CAB made the first move in 90-91, and clearly in 07-08. 99 looks like concurrent. I wont dismiss this indicator. Thanks for sharing.
I would look at two things. But a larger database with more historical reference in the chart would be helpful. Here are the two things.
1) Look at the spread and the scale. The times the spread reached the zero leverl or above and then declined seemed to work well.
2) The current peak on the upper chart of the Chemical Barometer and Industrial Production is lower than the previous peak. That may not bode well.
This is summer of recovery III, how dare they
Is it III or IV?
Possesion is the law. Just remember when goods and services stop crossing borders, troops will.
Its even worse then the graph shows. Go look at the 1st divergence of IP and chemicals. That happened as US gas prices went from reflecting a waste product to reflecting a fuel source. As US gas prices skyrocketed we produced less chemicals per unit of IP as we used lower cost chemicals produced with cheap trapped gas abroad.
But since the great recession Nat Gas prices in the US have returned to favord status as a petrochemical feedstock. So the drop in chemichal activity really is forecasting a drop in IP and not vagaries in power demand and foriegn gas prices.
I dont know if Im doing a good job explaining the thesis, but basically between 1995 and 2005 you could have a severe drop in chemical activity and a less severe drop in IP because of all the chemicals we would use from offshore. But today the US chemical industry is the low cost source, and thus a drop in activity really will be 1:1 with IP.
Oops, nevermind, figured it out.
I don't understand how this is a forward looking indicator.
The thing has been in a downward trend for two years.
And I enjoy the curvy arrows, sure even a positive trend looks treacherous when you assume it's about to fall off a cliff...
Well, so 3% drops precede recessions, but do recessions follow 3% drops? In other words, after every 3% drop in the index (or, per the article, all but one such drop), does a recession inevitably follow? Or were there over 9000 3% dips, followed by a few dozen recessions?
BTW, I'm not trying to be snarky, this is a rather important distinction, and it's not at all clear from the article which one is the case.
It is pretty sure US goes to reccession in second half.
http://leadenhallst.blogspot.com/2012/06/another-qe-or-twist.html