Supposed Deflation In October Blows Door For QE3 Wide Open
The decoupling theme for dummies continues to be alive and well. Following yesterday's simply ridiculous economic data, today we learn that in October live got cheaper as broad inflation as determined by the CPI declined for the first time since Jun, printing at -0.1 on expectations of an unchanged reading, and down from 0.3% in September. The bulk of this drop was on the decline (?) in energy prices: ex food and energy CPI was up 0.1%. Well, with the WTI back to $100 in anticipation precisely of the QE3 loophole this report is supposed to open, we can promptly remove that "deflation" notion. Still, Fed hawks can stand down "looks like we passed a cyclical peak" says Bloomberg analyst TJ Marta. In the meantime, Year over Year inflation increased by 3.5%, or about 35% if one actually counts the things people buy and removes the hedonic adjustments due to a carton of milk now assumed to have a rearview camera, power steering and ABS brakes (as per the BLS), and costing negative money in real terms or something.
A decline in the energy index more than offset small increases in the indexes for food and all items less food and energy to create the all items decline. The energy index turned down in October after increasing in each of the three previous months as the gasoline and household energy indexes declined after a series of seasonally adjusted increases. The food index rose in October, but posted its smallest increase of the year as the fruits and vegetables index declined sharply.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in October; this was the same increase as last month and matches its smallest increase of the year. While the shelter and medical care indexes accelerated in October and the apparel index turned up, the indexes for new vehicles, used cars and trucks, airline fare, and recreation all declined.
The all items index has risen 3.5 percent over the last 12 months, a lower figure than last month’s 3.9 percent increase, as the 12-month change in the energy index fell from 19.3 to 14.2 percent. In contrast, the 12-month change for all items less food and energy edged up from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The food index 12-month change was 4.7 percent, the same figure as in September.