Greece To Miss Budget Deficit Targets, As Usual, While Qatar Prepares A Bailout Pennies-For-Gold Swap

Tyler Durden's picture

As the Greek parliament meets to finalize huge public sector job cuts, Reuters is reporting that Greece will miss the deficit targets set in its EU/IMF bailout this year and next... We would say "again" but at this point "as usual" makes far more sense, Why this should come as a surprise to anyone is beyond us but the next steps by the Troika (as again and again targets are not met and yet still bank-extending-and-pretending-funding is provided) will be fascinating as they switch from carrot to stick and back to carrot perhaps. Assuming, of course, the "wildcat strikes" at any and all government institutions by government workers about to be sacked, allow Troika member access at some point in the near to long-term future. Although using numbers conceived on napkins as a replacement will be nothing new to either Greece, Eurostat or the Troika. Add to this the comment from the Deputy Leader of the CSU (one of Merkel's tri-party coalition) that Greece would find it easier to recover outside the currency bloc and rhetoric remains high, as do expectations for an inverse surge in the EURUSD at open in a few hours. The biggest winner: Qatar which just snuck in some recycled petrodollars into Greece, which will last the kleptocorrupt government about 1 week, in exchange for Greek gold.

Deutschland sets to pace of what to expect from the EURUSD in two hours:

"I believe it is a solution, if one wants to bring Greece back into a economically stable competitive condition, that this would be done outside the euro zone,"

More from Reuters:

Greece will miss the deficit targets set in its EU/IMF bailout this year and next as it faces worse-than-expected recession, sources said ahead of the adoption by the cabinet of the 2012 draft budget on Sunday.


Greece sees its 2011 budget deficit reaching 8.5 percent of GDP this year, missing a 7.6 percent target, the documents set to be approved by the cabinet show, two sources said.


The budget draft foresees that the deficit will be brought down to 6.8 percent of GDP, above a 6.5 percent target in the bailout that saved Greece from bankruptcy, the sources said.


In the same documents, Greece sees its economy contracting by 5.5 percent this year and 2 percent next year. This is in line with the IMF's World Economic Outlook, published last month, but much worse than the projections used for the July bailout negotiations, which predicted the country's economy would return to growth next year. 


Athens blames its failure to meet EU/IMF deficit targets on the worse-than-forecast contraction of the economy, while its lenders say failure to push through much-needed structural reforms is also largely to blame.


A deeper-than-expected recession makes it harder for Greece to collect revenues and meet its deficit targets. It also makes the impact of austerity measures such as tax hikes and wage cuts weigh harder on people.

At least it is always somebody's fault.

The good news, at least for Qatar, is that the Arab country will provide some much needed funding... in exchange for gold.

Qatar's sovereign wealth fund will invest $1 billion in European Goldfields including $600 million to finance operations in Greece, where the London-based firm has a permit to mine gold, the fund's head said on Saturday.


It was the second major investment in Greece by the Gulf state in two months. Qatar struck a deal in August to provide funding for a merger of two of the recession-hit country's largest banks.


Greece, which is in dire need of private investment as its worst recession in four decades is seen extending into next year, has long sought to convince the wealthy emirate to invest in its private and public companies.


Qatar Holdings will buy a 10 percent stake in European Goldfields from Greek building firm Ellaktor (HELr.AT) and has a call option to buy another 5 percent, CEO Ahmad al-Sayed said after a meeting between Greek and Qatari officials in Athens.


"In total, we will invest in the company about $1 billion," Sayed told reporters.

And in a shocking twist of Ph.D. fate, Greek spam factories remain without any Petrodollar funding.

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Conrad Murray's picture

Greece: Get everyone's mind off your shining example of how socialism is a failure, and bomb Turkey.

Cynical Sidney's picture

not to bomb turkey; the greeks have built a huge navy, have it invade and pillage turkey, and use the loot to pay back what it owes

ps. see poe's law

sabra1's picture

you do not bomb turkey, you shoot turkey! canadian thanksgiving coming up, and a bombed turkey cannot be served, unless held together with greece!

Panic Panic Panic's picture

But you Can eat a turkey bombed.

disabledvet's picture

With Wild Turkey anything is possible.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Should have bought FAZ friday morning!

zorba THE GREEK's picture

If Iran attacked Turkey from rear, Greece would help.

LeonardoFibonacci's picture

you mean from behind.  Get anal on the Turks

disabledvet's picture

Insofar as Poe's "Law": Gravity is weak. And that's a fact. No one makes fun of atheists either because there's nothing funny about an atheist or nihilism in general. (Cue: "I did stand up comedy for Hitler" and other tall tales.) And what the heck is a "tiki-dude"?

Phil Free's picture

How about some reality.  With Turkey's new partnership with Egypt?  Uh, huh.  The only thing Greece will be doing is leaving the Eurozone.  And, for their sake, that should be sooner than later.

terryfuckwit's picture

strange habit folks have of replacing the words "greedy wanker bankers" with "socialism". If unrestrained greedy bankers is the issue can we stick with that or shall i put my wife 's name in cause i hate her too ... get real!!

Pegasus Muse's picture

OT:  Just finished listening to an interview at PFSGroup on the demand for Physical Silver as a result of the lastest CRIMEX/CME/CFTC orchestrated take-down in the futures market.  Bottom Line:  Demand for physical silver is through the roof.  Retail investors appear to be waking up.  They're buying silver like it's the last time they'll be able to get it.  Who knows ... they could be right.  Interview starts at the 21:45 marks and runs about 20 minutes.    


“Knowing When and What to Buy in Precious Metals”

Jim addresses the important topic of "knowing when and what to buy in precious metals" in the Big Picture. Jim is also joined by Kathy Derbes CFA of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC to discuss the recent wave of precious metals purchasing at the retail level, and how the premiums have escalated.

A native of New Orleans, Kathy graduated from Vanderbilt University with a BE in Civil Engineering. Following six years of engineering experience, Kathy began her investment management career.

Cynical Sidney's picture

would like to see how JPM will come out of its exposures in PM.

Quintus's picture

What do you think the recent carpet bombing of metals was all about? Check out the latest Commitment of Traders report. UNPRECEDENTED volume of short covering by the Commercials just took place. They know what's coming. The takedowns may not be done yet, since there are still a lot of shorts to cover, but the path is clear now. JPM had hit the EJECT button. No doubt they'll be massively long when the SHTF in Greece.

Cynical Sidney's picture

please explain the math of this to me as i lack knowledge in this subject. how is the 'carpet bombing of metals' done? does JPM manipulate the market so they could unwind their short positions on silver? how exactly does drop in commerical net shorts push down the price of PM? perhaps they won't open the same positions at these low prices again in the market as traders anticipate that the price of commodity will experience rapid ascend or descend?

Quintus's picture

Oh dear. Where to start. Are you asking a genuine question or are you not really an innocent in the shark-infested waters of the metals markets? Let's give you the benefit of the doubt.

JPM was short >100 days global production of silver. This is a problem. However, there is no effective regulation of the metals futures market in the US (regulatory capture of the CFTC) so they sell massive volumes of paper silver against which they can never deliver actual metal. In an unrelenting dump-fest they drive the price below the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages, triggering a cascade of sell stops among the tech fund community.

Prices plunge. Then JPM buy back the contracts they sold but at prices far lower than the original sales prices. End result is they are now short 'Only' 82 days of global production and probably made some money on the deal.

RockyRacoon's picture

I suggest anyone who wants to stay on top of the movements of the shorts and general PM info subscribe to Ed Steer's daily email letter.   He da man.    ...and it's free.

Ricky Bobby's picture

Central planning and limitless state intervention sounds like socialism to me. Before the Fed bankers played with there own capital and if they lost it so be it. Now they "socialize" there losses. If walks like a duck and quacks like a duck ...

Reggie Middleton's picture

Honestly, who was expecting anything else?? Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!

The IMF and the EU have been consistently
and overtly optimistic from the very beginning of this crisis. Their
numbers have been dramatically over the top on the super bright, this
will end pretty, rosy scenario side - and that is after multiple
revisions to the downside!!! We can visit the US concept of regulatory
capture (see How Regulatory Capture Turns Doo Doo Deadly and Lehman Brothers Dies While Getting Away with Murder: Regulatory Capture at its Best)
for the EU, but due to time constraints we will save that topic for a
later date. To make matters even worse, the sovereign states have taken
these dramatically optimistic and proven unrealistic projections and
have made even more optimistic and dramatically unrealistic projections
on top of those in order to create the illusion of a workable
"austerity" plan when in reality there is no way in hell the stated and
published plans will come anywhere near reducing the debts and deficits
as advertised - No Way in Hell
(Hades/Tartarus/Anao/Uffern/Peklo/Niffliehem - just to cover some of the
Euro states caught fudging the numbers)!

Let's take a visual perusal of what I am talking about, focusing on those sovereign nations that I have covered thus far.


Notice how dramatically off the market the IMF has been, skewered HEAVILY to the optimistic side. Now, notice how aggressively the IMF has downwardly revsied their forecasts to still end up widlly optimistic. image018.pngimage018.pngimage018.png

Ever since the beginning of this crisis, IMF estimates of government balance have been just as bad...


The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!




and the EU on goverment balance??? Way, way, way off.


If the IMF was wrong, what in the world does that make the EC/EU?

The EC forecasts have been just as bad, if not much, much worse in
nearly all of the forecasting scenarios we presented. Hey, if you think
tha's bad, try taking a look at what the govenment of Greece has done
with these fairy tale forecasts, as excerpted from the blog post "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!...


about it! With a .5% revisions, the EC was still 3 full points to the
optimistic side on GDP, that puts the possibility of Greek government
forecasts, which are much more optimistic than both the EU and the
slightly more stringent but still mostly erroneous IMF numbers, being
anywhere near realistic somewhere between zero and no way in hell
(tartarus, hades, purgatory...).

Mongo's picture

What an epic farce... but I am not laughing

Oh regional Indian's picture

Seriously! Greek Tragedy. Given that they are the "cradle" of the west, somehow fitting they are going first. Even so, I feel the pony that will shoot forward on turn 7 and shock everyone is Spain.

Greek is equally the Trojan Horse Archetype. 

Maybe Spain will leap out of the horse's belly, soonish?



knukles's picture

Get Jimmy O'Neil to take charge and all'll be healed.
Healed I say!  Healed!

The depths of despair to which these people are being driven by this criminal madness is incomprehensible.
T'will be coming Big Time unglued before too long.

tim73's picture

Revenge in Greece: Go and complete your enemy's house. That way he will have to start paying real estate tax :)

Poetic injustice's picture

How can they fail meeting targets, if on last meeting they refused to provide any numbers?

Monday will be stormy, as Merkel will have to fly to Paris again and make "joint announcement of toothless tiger".

johngaltfla's picture

Feather, knock me over.

This is akin to the headline:

U.S. Budget Deficit far worse than estimated.


______________ (name the institution) under investigation for Insider Trading

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

They won't go anywhere without Merkozy's written approval !

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Greece is like the Bad Boy of the global economy. 'Yeah, listen, maybe next year... wait ... no not even then...

Greece you're so controversial!

'And in a shocking twist of Ph.D. fate, Greek spam factories remain without any Petrodollar funding.'

Nice Tyler, a dig at Roubini. Nice.

agent default's picture

If Greece goes bust then we will get a Dollar rally which will not be good for PMs.  I think we should be getting out of the way for this one.

zorba THE GREEK's picture

I wouldn't bet on PMs going down because the dollar goes up. Just a few months ago PMs and the $

were going up and down together. There are many factors influencing the price of PMs.

The only sure winner in the last 10 years has been to buy and hold unlevered PMs.

LowProfile's picture

Yes, and PMs can also go down in dollar terms while soaring in other currency terms.

USD still has some life left in it, you'll see.  Use it to your advantage.

But it changes nothing long term.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Correct!  more green...

Best to have LOTS of gold and enough dollars in FRNs to cover your bases, you know, in case TSHTF.  The gold will carry your wealth through the crisis.  Might want to have some guns and ammo to protect it though, as I am sure LowProfile does, what with the bullet hole and everything...

jimmyjames's picture

I wouldn't bet on PMs going down because the dollar goes up. Just a few months ago PMs and the $

were going up and down together. There are many factors influencing the price of PMs.


Someone gets it-

This bullshit idea of an always inverse currency/dollar/gold relationship is nothing but a illusion-why can't these people do a bit of checking before they spout out their misguided "calls"

Gold is simply a currency-like any other currency-but it is the King currency today-



disabledvet's picture

I agree. It's when you get "120% return on a sovereign debt instrument" that i think gold has found a little competition. i'm looking for an interest rate return on my vast Peruvian holdings--and yep, says right here...i've lost everything.

Hulk's picture

Zorba, the dollar will be forced down, the economy can't survive a strong dollar...

zorba THE GREEK's picture

Hulk, there is no doubt in my mind that the dollar will be forced down . Massive QE3 should be very effective to that end.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hulk and zorba, both of you are correct and get green.

QE3 will come at some point.  It is the easiest SHORT-TERM solution.

Do what Qatar (sort of) did: buy gold!  While it is still cheap.

jimmyjames's picture

Zorba, the dollar will be forced down, the economy can't survive a strong dollar...


I doubt they have much room for forcing the dollar down-

A panic to USD safety will confound any political attempts to devalue-

A strong dollar is what the US needs-it cuts import costs and that gives exporters a margin window to lower prices-thus becoming legitimately competitive in world trade-not by devaluing and shifting the negative effects of price inflation onto the backs of consumers who are barely making ends meet-

zorba THE GREEK's picture

JJ,  I agree that a strong dollar is a good thing for a country, but we have dis-functional government running the

western world. Every country's economy is weak and weakening their currencies to increase exports is now the objective.

In the U.S. weakening the dollar and creating inflation seem to be the only politically acceptable plan to deal with debt.

Bernanke's last public statement was that deflation was unacceptable and that he would take steps to ease (print) if there

were any signs of inflation going down. If Europe crashes and U.S. banks take a big hit, We could see massive bail-outs

even greater than 2008-2009. The only way to keep money from running to the dollar for safety is for the Fed to print

massive amounts of $ and that would probably send money into gold.

jimmyjames's picture


Yes to what you say-the problem-if you can call it that is the "perception" of USD safety when panic strikes-

You and me and a "few" others know about Gold-the rest only know about paper currency which is one reason for the latest pullback in Gold and USD strength-

At some point fear will implant itself in all the so called safehaven currencies and then Gold will decide how may pieces of different colored paper it will take to buy it-

LowProfile's picture

Careful, you'll draw attention to us.

RyanW525's picture


Zero Govt's picture

THIS.....IS........SOCIALISM !!


donsluck's picture

That's funny. Everything eventually has a 100% failure. The point is, does the government serve the people (as the USA founding fathers insisted should be the case) or does it serve the bankers and business oligarchs?

BigJim's picture

The Greek government, like every other majoritarian government, serves the largest and most powerful voters: the poor, and the rich, respectively.

Everyone else gets raped.

tom a taxpayer's picture

Germany 'won't give more to EU bail-out fund'

"AFP - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out Germany contributing any more money to the beefed-up EU bail-out fund than the 211 billion euros approved by parliament, in an interview published Saturday. "The European Financial Stability Facility has a ceiling of 440 billion euros ($590 billion), 211 billion of which is down to Germany. And that is it. Finished," he told the magazine Super-Illu."

"He also suggested the European Stability Mechanism, which is due to replace the EFSF by 2013 at the latest, would be smaller. "Then it will be only a matter of 190 billion in total, for which we will be guarantors, including interest," he explained."

edotabin's picture

Junk away, but I call bullshit on Wolfgang and his announcements. 

Zero Govt's picture

You can't bailout decades of Suicide Socialism and the private economy it has killed with rules and motive-sacking totalitarism and market intervention... ask East German socialist Merkel if she's ever made a profit from the €100's of billions West.G poured/pissed-away into East.G.?

Greece is going to collapse no matter how much good money you pour after bad... the place is a pigs ear of Govt intervention and political 'management' ...Socialist pigs trying to make a silk purse with other peoples money always go down the toilet, good they're taking the bankers with them this time

mjk0259's picture

Greece isn't socialism, it's thievery. They never had any intention of paying these loans back.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Good point. No intention to pay back, unlike for example the States.