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Despair, Hope, Growth, Optimism

The average "Hope" phases last 10 months. In the US it is now running on 4 years... and counting.

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Frontrunning: December 10

  • U.S. set to adopt Volcker rule to curb bank trading gambles (Reuters) After vote, lawsuits likely next hurdle for Volcker rule (Reuters)
  • U.S. Congress budget talks could produce Tuesday deal, aides say (Reuters)
  • Wealthy Go Frugal This Holiday Amid Uneven U.S. Recovery (BBG)
  • Tearful Thai PM urges protesters to take part in election (Reuters)
  • Fed’s Bullard Sees Higher QE Taper Odds as Labor Market Improves (BBG)
  • Coeure Says ECB Would Offer More LTROs Only When Banks Can Lend (BBG)
  • Inside China's Super-Sterile Chicken Farms (WSJ)
  • Mandela Service Rivals JFK’s as Leaders Meet in South Africa (BBG)
  • China data defy slowdown forecasts (FT), and of course the word is "data"
  • Cold, ice grip U.S. as more snow to blanket East (Reuters)
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Futures Resume Overnight Levitation Mode

The grind higher in equities, and tighter in credit, continues as markets brush aside concerns about a December taper for the time being. Overnight futures levitation has pushed the Fed balance sheet driven record high S&P even higher, despite as Deutsche Bank points out, the fact that we had three Fed speakers advocate or talk up the possibility of a December taper, including the St Louis Fed’s James Bullard who is viewed as a bit of a bellwether for the FOMC. Bullard said the probability of a taper had risen in light of the strengthening of job growth in recent months. Indeed, he noted that the best move for the Fed could be a small December taper given the improving jobs data but below-target inflation readings. The Fed could then pause further tapering should inflation not return toward target during the first half of 2014.  Looking at today’s calendar, the focus will be on US JOLTs job openings - a report which Yellen has previously highlighted as an important supplement to more traditional labour market indicators. US small business optimism and wholesale inventories are the other major data releases today. As mentioned above, US financial regulators are due to announce Volcker rules at some point today although as we just reported, the CFTC's meeting on Volcker was just cancelled due to inclement weather.

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RANsquawk Week Ahead - 9th December 2013

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37 Reasons Why "The Economic Recovery Of 2013" Is A Giant Lie

"If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it."  Sadly, that appears to be the approach that the Obama administration and the mainstream media are taking with the U.S. economy.  They seem to believe that if they just keep telling the American people over and over that things are getting better, eventually the American people will believe that it is actually true. And of course the reality of the matter is that we should have seen some sort of an economic recovery by now.  Those running our system have literally been mortgaging the future in a desperate attempt to try to pump up our economic numbers.  The federal government has been on the greatest debt binge in U.S. history and the Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazed lunatics.  All of that "stimulus" should have had some positive short-term effects on the economy. Sadly, all of those "emergency measures" do not appear to have done much at all.

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The 10 Worst Economic Predictions Ever

From Bernanke's infamous 2008 "not forecasting a recession" call to Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines 2004 "subprime assets are riskless" commentary, the following 10 "predictions" - as opposed to Wien "surprises" - will go down in infamy for their degree of errant-ness...

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Caption Contest: If Gold Is Broken, They "Fix" It

Much has been written recently about the rigged London "gold fixing" process, during which, as even Bloomberg recently covered, the price of gold is blatantly manipulated. One thing was, however, missing: a photo of the fixers in practice. Today, courtesy of German WiWo, we show just what said "fixing" looks like in real life every single day.

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Abe Approval Rating Plunges (But Japan Is Not Venezuela, Yet)

Japan's PM Shinzo Abe has seen his approval ratings collapse for the first time since his 'devalue-to-glory' strategy was unveiled a year ago. Kyodo News reported, support for Mr. Abe fell 10.3ppt to 47.6%, while Japan News Network reported a 13.9-point fall to 54.6% as WSJ reports, public concern over the controversial secrecy bill (designed by Kafka, inspired by Hitler) and its nationalist overtones merely exacerbated Japanese people's concerns about their pocketbooks (as incomes stagnate and costs rise). As Abe plays lip service to economic issues (with a very Maduro-like speech recently on profit margins and wage increases), there is little but public outrage to hinder his plans as his ruling Liberal Democratic Party has big majorities in both houses of parliament, with no election scheduled until 2016. So much for Abenomics...

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David Stockman Rages Market "Valuation Has Lost Any Anchor To The Real World"

The current malaise of news, data, and spin is "meaningless," David Stockman tells Bloomberg's Tom Keene, adding that markets are exhibiting "the kind of speculative froth you get at the top of a cycle where valuation loses any anchor in the real world; from earnings or the prospects of the economy." As he argued before, "owning stocks here is very dangerous," and despite Keene's best efforts to denigrate Stockman's "of course it's a bubble," perspective; the former inside-man exposes the hard mathematical truths of valuations, performance, and reality in this brief clip. Who is to blame - The Fed or Wall Street? "It is a question of who has taken whom hostage," Stockman concludes ominously, "it's a co-dependency... it's very dangerous."

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Math For American Politicians

"Mediocrity," it would appear (based on their actions), is the new "excellence"...

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Of Keynesian Cul-De-Sacs And The Fed Creating More Financial Market Uncertainty

Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new nominal highs on a nearly daily basis, the U.S. economy bumps along at a lackluster pace. This disconnect has been achieved by a massive Fed experiment in monetary stimulation. Through the combination of seemingly endless maintenance of zero interest rates and the injection of some $1trillion a year of synthetic money into fixed-income markets, the Fed is hoping that the boom it is creating on Wall Street will lead to a boom on Main Street. In reality, this a very dangerous economic gamble of enormously high stakes.  As we have seen in the recent past, financial bubbles can leave catastrophe in their wake.

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Seeking Guidance...?!

If you BTFATH today, this is the forward-looking fundamental backdrop that is supporting your decision...

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WTF Chart Of The Day: VIX Slamdown Edition

WTF was this!!??

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Lloyd Blankfein And The "Mega-Wealthy" Are Rushing To Buy Into This $1 Billion Miami Condo

What do you do if you have more money than you can ever spend, and own residences in most major metropolises around the world. You invest in the most exclusive "third" (or fourth, or fifth) vacation "house" that can be purchased by people for whom money is no object, such as the $1 billion Faena Miami Beach, which has lined up as buyers none other than the creme of the (bailed out courtesy of a multi-trillion ongoing taxpayer bailout) Wall Street crop including Apollo's Leon Black, and of course Goldman's very own resident of a duplex in 15 CPW, Lloyd Blankfein. The Faena oceanfront development for the megarich is financed by another billionaire, chairman of Access Industries, Len Blavatnik, whose $16.1 billion net worth puts him 49th in the Bloomberg Billionaires index. This is what Lloyd and company will buy with the Fed's "wealth effect."

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