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As Syriza Concedes Defeat, EURUSD Forgets To Soar - Is A Spanish "Bail Out" Market Response In The Works?

Tyler Durden's picture


In a perilous replay of the Spanish bank "bailout", the proxy for bailout sentiment, the EURUSD pair, was up 61 pips to just under 1.2700... and that's it. Naturally, if the world suddenly thought Europe was "fixed", Spain notwithstanding, one would imagine the reaction by the FX market would be just a little more invigorated than merely confirming that what is playing out (namely the lack of a definitive Greek government) has already been priced in. And yet here we are...

As the WSJ reports:

"The head of Greece's radical left Syriza party conceded defeat Sunday
after closely fought national elections that were seen by many as a de
facto referendum on the country's future in the euro zone. With more than half of the vote counted, the conservative New
Democracy party--which supports the European-led bailout needed to keep
Greece in the euro zone--was leading with 30.3% of the vote against
26.31% for the antiausterity Syriza party. Speaking in a nationally televised statement, Syriza leader Alexis
Tsipras said he had called his rival--New Democracy party chief Antonis
Samaras--to congratulate him on his victory. A little while ago, I called Mr. Samaras and I congratulated him. He
now has the ability to form a government," Mr. Tsipras said"


"In his remarks, Mr. Tsipras said his party would continue to "be present in developments in the position of the honorable opposition," implicitly ruling out any cooperation with New Democracy in a cross-party coalition."

  In other words, anyone hoping that Greece will promptly form a pro-bailout government will likely be disappointed, especially if Pasok was not merely posturing and indeed demands Syriza, which said it will do no such thing, form a coalition government. On the other hand, there is nothing quite like have a coalition government between the two parties that brought Greece to its knees in the first place, to fix the country... Somewhat like when all the central banks ganged up and fixed the world last time around in November.

To Germany, the vote, has one meaning: that Germany won the game of chicken. From Reuters:

"The German Federal Government would consider such a result a decision by Greek voters to forge ahead with the implementation of far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms," Schaeuble said in a statement.


Schaeuble added that New Democracy Chairman Antonis Samaras had told euro zone finance ministers in February he was committed to the bailout programme.


"This programme, developed and agreed with Greece, has only one goal: to put the country back on the path of economic prosperity and stability. This path will be neither short nor easy but is necessary and will give the Greek people the prospect of a better future," he said.

Europe, of course, is completely oblivious to the German stance, and instead sees itself as having gained the upper hand, insloventy and lack of money notwithstanding. From the Consilium, or rather, from Cabo, Mexico.

Los Cabos, 17 June 2012


Satement by Presidents Herman Van Rompuy and José Manuel Barroso on the result of the Greek elections


The Greek people have spoken. We fully respect its democratic choice. We are hopeful that the election results will allow a government to be formed quickly.


Today, we salute the courage and resilience of the Greek citizens, fully aware of the sacrifices which are demanded from them to redress the Greek economy and build new, sustainable growth for the country.


We will continue to stand by Greece as a member of the EU family and of the Euro area. We look forward to work with the new government and to support the continued efforts of Greece to put its economy on a sustainable path.


The second economic adjustment programme agreed between Greece and the Eurogroup is the basis upon which to build to foster growth, prosperity and jobs for the Greek people. We stand ready to continue assisting Greece in achieving these goals.

Finally, from a capital markets standpoint the only thing that should matter is that there will be no coordinated central banker intervention tonight, or tomorrow, as we explained on Friday. That is of course, assuming New Democracy does somehow manage to cobble together a coalition government with either the Neo-Nazis or the communists, if indeed Pasok is out.

Our only question: will the record short rally in the aftermath of the Spanish "bailout" be of shorter or longer duration than that of the Greek "resolution." We would take the latter.


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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:33 | 2534804 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Everyone in Europe is watching the football! The Greeks are still drunk from last nights victory! Greece vs Germany..bring on the riots!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:42 | 2534829 SHEEPFUKKER

I've often wondered that.....let these countries battle it out on the pitch.  Forget all of these stupid elections and emegency meetings. The world is tired of that crap. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:00 | 2534888 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

Thanks bitches. Just closed my EUR/USD position at 1.2744 for 130 pips. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:43 | 2535264 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

one of the reasons you dont vote, is how they translate it.....30%....and that means to them fuckers rumpoy et al. ...."see they want us to do whatever we want, however we want, anyway we want...." 

the true 99% are 99% of global politicians at every level are self serving incompetent corrupt cocksuckers...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:43 | 2534832 malikai
malikai's picture

Greece v. Germany.. It couldn't be more fitting a match.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:58 | 2534878 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

It's all Schweinsteiger! lol...


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:04 | 2534897 malikai
malikai's picture

I think I heard his name a thousand times tonight.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:58 | 2534879 TrillionDollarBoner
TrillionDollarBoner's picture

And in both cases - finance and football - there is no doubt who will win (even if it goes to penalties).

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:56 | 2535001 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

No, in finance they're both losing.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:49 | 2534851 ACP
ACP's picture

Germany can rightfully take back all the gold that was taken from them after WWII, after the Germans wrongfully stole it during the war.

Who'd have thought the Germans never even had to invade a country to destroy/plunder it, just let it destroy itself over a long period of time. Hell, how much easier can it get?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:08 | 2534895 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

The Germans fund their war effort by plundering their enemy.

The USA war effort is funded by deficits - thereby plundering the savers and taxpayers.

The German plunder method is the better method to fund war.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:40 | 2535161 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

True, ACP.  And TPTB will drag this thing out until every country in the EU is on it's knees and BEGS to be taken over by Germany.  That is the only way Rockerfeller & Rothschild Inc. can create their United States of Europe.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:49 | 2535423 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

They do have to pay royalties on the method, if you catch my drift.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:59 | 2534885 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

herrSchaeuble is certainly off his coconut!  quoting antonioSam's campaign promises?   finiMini's on the weekend?  priceless X2 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:47 | 2535081 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "Monkey in the Wrench" party demands a little Peter Gabriel...


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:28 | 2534952 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We will be pouring billions of dollars in re-shorts at EUR/USD 1.28 and SPX 1350.  

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:59 | 2535007 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

Germany needs to take their football home and let the Greeks fall where they may.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:06 | 2535531 Tsukato
Tsukato's picture

Fucking Greeks! What a disappointment. Thought they were going to bring it all down :( Anyway, I had a thought last night: Why aren't the Greeks leaving the Euro, and just using the $US? Could fuck off all those debts, not have to worry about a drachma devaluation, could trade Euros for $s, no problem. In fact it would be a coup de grace to jump into dollars after fist fucking the euro. It would be a helluva return on their exchange from euros to dollars too, cuz they would be abandoning the boat that they helped sink. Oh well.

I may be a fool. but it seems to me that everything happening now is nothing short of economic warfare, with the last standing being the victor? The Fed keep conjuring money but it hasn't such a detrimental affect on exchange rates right? Why not invite all the periphery euro countries to dump the euro for $, and no matter how much printing Ben Shalom does, it won't matter because everyone will be running for dollar safety. Could be that this will be the case against all currencies until someone backs their with gold. Am I mistaken? If so, please fill me in.


Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:37 | 2535577 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

LOL, you begin with "fucking Greeks!" after the just had an election and go on with "Perhaps I'm a fool" and "Am I mistaken? If so, fill me in." ?

Using the dollar is the standard reset of this world, this is what you do when as a government you have no other option left. Zimbabwe, though, uses South African Rands and gold more than USD, and are courting the Chinese to use the Yuan.

Yes, in one point you are right, we are in economic warfare, and you and me are pawns on the chessboard. The peoples of the periphery of the EURozone want to keep it because it's the harder currency.

The fight between gold and the USD is specific of this pair. The EUR was born because of this.

In fact, you can say that it's on one side the USD complex and on the other side gold and all the other currencies.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:34 | 2534806 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yay, the criminals win again...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:40 | 2534821 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

As I mentioned, there was no fucking way the election results would have EVER went any other direction. Now we need a 40 handle ES as 'market confirmation' that the troubles are behind us.

Yea, it is a god damn joke. But, at least I know how totally subordinate the 99% are. We nothing more than fucking worker bees, drones, and fleas to the cream.

That's how it is.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:37 | 2534965 macholatte
macholatte's picture




.... conservative New Democracy party--which supports the European-led bailout needed to keep
Greece in the euro zone-....



The can shall be kicked!

"So let it be written. So let it be done."

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:42 | 2534831 TrillionDollarBoner
TrillionDollarBoner's picture

The people of Greece have spoken. They say that on second thoughts they would quite like to stay in line at the fleecing pen thanks. baa

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:28 | 2535145 monad
monad's picture

You don't get it. They were offered free lunch. Nobody turns the free lunch down. It must be awesome. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:51 | 2535425 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I turn down discount cheese (especially the 100% discount, gubmint kind).

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 09:35 | 2536051 TrillionDollarBoner
TrillionDollarBoner's picture

You're right in the near term - they were offered a free lunch and it was hard to turn down.

But in the long term you don't get it - they will find out soon enough that the free lunch comes with strings attached, namely high taxes, massive spending cuts, slow growth, low employment, potentially for decades...

The bailouts keep them on the bankers' hook

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:35 | 2534809 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Credit Agricole = nationalization = emporiki losses > 19.000 Mn Euros up to 33.000 Mn Euros.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:35 | 2534810 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Yes, little change in EURO. But will Fed take their finger off the PRINT key?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:50 | 2534856 Conman
Conman's picture

Yes thats the real question. We rallied 600 points on QE expectations. Europe was just a distraction and possible QE trigger. Now that europe is fixed for now, hows that QE looking for this week? Not good in ym opinion. Benny will hold off till he needs it. It seems like the threat of QE is more potent than actual QE.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:54 | 2534815 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

So ZH predicts a complete reversal by the AM?


we shall see how things play out.

Ive been using gold and silver as indicators recently, they seem to drag things around rather than visa vis.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:38 | 2534817 max2205
max2205's picture

Must. hold. it. back. So GS can get net long

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:39 | 2534818 Abundance
Abundance's picture

In honor of my Dad on Fathers day, "This is so stupid!". nothing has changed the inevitable outcome.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:57 | 2534819 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



The Greeks will embrace bailout assterity like asking them 2 work overtime on Fridays without pay, ouzo, & an 8 hour lunchbreak.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:40 | 2534820 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

The ECB holds about 30% of Greek debt. You don't REALLY thinks they would let Greece default, do you? See chart.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:41 | 2534822 Dragonsgrace
Dragonsgrace's picture

See everyone here on Zero Hedge is so pessmistic. It is all fixed now.  Oh....why is everyone laughing. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:40 | 2534823 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Yes, the people voted slavery. Nothing to see here now, move along as we close the boxcars.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:41 | 2534825 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Lets hope the macro data from US keeps getting worse. That might finally prompt Uncle Ben to get his put out again. For all you bankster haters btw, the Euro crisis doing a fine job of sending bankers home for good this time. Watch for unemployment in the sector to rise faster than the economy at large...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:44 | 2535175 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Oooh.  Maybe we'll finally be able to call it a Depression then, since a Depression is when you lose your job.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:44 | 2534838 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Why do I feel that this is nothing more than a play on a stage and we are the audience?  Unless I missed something, nothing is fixed.  Just wish they move on to the next act....Italy.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:20 | 2535135 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Can't you wait till the Fat lady sings the Spanish Act out. Italy is the "finis" of the this sad opera.

Quite please - the 4th act is reaching a climax and I've run out of popcorn damit

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2534841 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

doesn't this strike anyone as the worst possible outcome for the markets?  because greece itself is irrelevant, its only central bank printing that matters - and this just took any immediate heroin fix from the ECB and Fed off the table.  

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:52 | 2534862 Conman
Conman's picture

Agree 100% . Threat of QE causes squeezes. Actual QE i not doing anything to help global economies where debt does not equal growth.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:12 | 2534909 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

+20 handles on the ES before the rooster crows.

They need to 'market confirmation' and all that shit.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:27 | 2534949 Wave-Tech
Wave-Tech's picture

ES +9.50 to 1347  @ 6:25pm EST ...


We're long from 1320 and see an upside price target at 1391 so long as the market can sustain trade north of 1320 +/-



Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:58 | 2535430 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Waves in the kiddie pool...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:46 | 2534846 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Schaueble is a moron. There's no mandate for austerity. The clever Greeks have show everyone that they will have to be thrown out! The next decision is for Germany to turn off the tap and ending the game. Unless they want to drag this out past August. By that time god knows what condition Spain and Italy will be in.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:54 | 2534855 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Face it. The EURO and US will be maxed to the limit. Then the Elite will pull the plug. We still have some ways to go. Greece had their chance to say FUNG CHEW! But, they didn't...


So... Italy is next for the horse whipping. Then, the US will print and get a downgrade. Then of course, war is still on the horizen.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:53 | 2534866 thejollyprophet
thejollyprophet's picture

EURUSD has rallied 30 pips since this article was written. I cannot understand why.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:01 | 2534889 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Because ZH called it flat(ish), aka reminded the controllers that manipulate, "Hey dumb-Euro-chees-lovers, you are supposed to rally..."

And in this way, TCTM and their weak willed minions who do are they are told, can point to ZH and say: "You are so wrong..."

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:06 | 2534891 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

silvers pushing through 29 thats all i care about

(spoke too soon maybe)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:01 | 2535010 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Don't worry about the USD price.

You will never sell your silver for dollars.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 17:57 | 2534873 poldark
poldark's picture

The Greeks have voted for austerity, I hope they don't whinge when they get it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:14 | 2534913 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Oh, they will...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:14 | 2534914 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

OMFG... What's paper going to do tomorrow?


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:17 | 2534921 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I have NO doubt the central bankers and bureaucrats can solve Europe's  problems once and for all.

(In the last two years, they've done is several times.)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:18 | 2534927 JackT
JackT's picture

The Greeks have taken the QE Needle away from the world's veins

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:27 | 2534951 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

King World News experts blew it again.


Dead wrong.  The world is not ending.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:38 | 2534969 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It ended yesterday. We got transported here during our sleep last night.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:48 | 2534987 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Who would have guessed that the Greeks wouldn't vote for complete chaos and a collapse of their society? No one could have seen it coming, unless you looked at equity prices...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:16 | 2535127 Conman
Conman's picture

Exactly right. The endless fear mongering ensured victory for ND. A few interviews with older greeks on the streets proved that. They were afraid that a vote for syriza meant no gasoline and no money in the bank. I'm not kidding.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:15 | 2535126 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

KWN and RoboT two sides of the same coin.
"You changed man, you used to be cool. "

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 01:29 | 2535496 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

Not yet, it has only been delayed

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:33 | 2534957 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Euro is not going up? That's unpossible. The big banks said it would go up. I feel bad for all those banks losing money hand over fist.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:09 | 2535538 d_taco
d_taco's picture

Ha ha ha. Lets see who is at the end of the Euro sucker trade.

By the way UK got a 140 K bailout (much more than Spain received) by its printing press. Zerohedge City Bankers forgot to tell.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:37 | 2534966 djsmps
djsmps's picture

A little Sunday humor:

Athens (CNN) -- The leader of Greece's center-right, pro-bailout New Democracy party claimed "a victory for all Europe" after a first-place showing in Sunday's parliamentary elections, promising that unpopular austerity measures "will bring the country back to prosperity."

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:01 | 2535202 surf0766
surf0766's picture

shhhhhhhhhh He has seen the Secret. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:57 | 2535002 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

"the Greek citizens, fully aware of the sacrifices which are demanded from them". Are you freakin' kidding ...?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:22 | 2535042 marco1324
marco1324's picture

MSM are already talking up QE after Rio. You know its going to happan you just know it is. They cant wait to press the button that says DO NOT PRESS. Unkle Merv has already started the ball rolling in the UK so Auntie Ben wont be far behind. Its a bit like Kerplunk, you know the balls are going to drop but you keep rubbing your hands when you pull a stick and get away with it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:51 | 2535272 covert
covert's picture

all go broke together in all the bailouts. they are bail ins.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:35 | 2535059 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

No worries,Gold remembered to get bitch slapped.
Fuck You personally Timmy the fucking weasel.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:49 | 2535089 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

If there is no Qe on June 20 - there will be no QE in 2012 due to the elections.  At least not without a full fledged disaster in the markets.  So for those that ran the markets up on Thursday and Friday hoping for another dose of hOPiuM (Other People's Money)... this should be the most bearish news you could get.

Sure there was no D-Day.  I'm not sure who exactly thought there would be.

So where do we stand?

The first question is will the Bank runds in Greece and Spain subside and/or reverse.  IMO the money that has been taken out so far isn't going back in.  And I don't see a reason for withdraws to cease until a unity government is formed.  A 3rd election would be a disaster for TPTB (assuming they aren't engineering this crisis in the 1st place).

If the withdraws continue, even at a lower rate, then the problems in Spain will quickly come to the forefront.  Yeilds are at 6.80%, and I feel like this is a critical fulcrum.  They hit 7.0% and fell.  If they fall further, perhaps the markets will calm down for awhile.  If they test 7.0% again, they head to 8%-10%.  The big question is when will we get more visibillity on the size of the Spanish bailout.  If it really needs to be 2x-3x the amount announced last weekend, then you have more capital being seized from public debt holders by the ESM/ESFS.  That will result in higher rates, and a full bailout of deficit spending and soverign refinancing for Spain - and 20% rates in 2013.  If the ECB acts quickly with another BIG LTRO, then maybe they can kick the can for 12 more months.

If we get a government in Greece it will be interesting to see how the renegotiations go.  If Germany gives up too much, you will have Ireland and Portugal demanding justice.  If the Germans give to little, you will have violence on the streets.  IMO it won't take long for people to realize its un-democratic for ND to get 46% of the seats with just 30% of the vote.

But everyone focused on Europe is forgetting a HUGE black swan stateside.  Congress has 4-5 more weeks in session.  If the Fiscal cliff isn't addressed soon - then it won't be until next year.  That will put the US in a recession - if we aren't already.

And then their is a hard landing in China.  Its pretty clear from the numbers we are seeing <7% is in the cards for next Q, and that's with the US growing 2%+.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:13 | 2535309 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

2008 was also an election year

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:38 | 2535253 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

With the USD falling, oil should be rising.


Not so sure that will occur.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:15 | 2535390 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

I think we got a week now until the next crisis

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:20 | 2535399 glass
glass's picture

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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:57 | 2535429 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It's not Bill Burroughs, but keep working at it! :p

Why "True Religion"? Why not "Fabulous Ass" Jeans?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:34 | 2535412 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Rally warning continues...

SPX bullish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & more rally expected.

DOW initial target approx 13,170 & more upside after that.


Mon, 06/18/2012 - 01:37 | 2535506 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 04:35 | 2535653 zanza
zanza's picture

EURUSD just dropped 100 pips :o

4:30EST June 16


wtf just happened?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 04:43 | 2535661 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

Ehm... does this mean more Bailouts?

More QE123/Twist and/or LTRO etc.

Combined with Eurobills of course;)

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 06:21 | 2535720 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

Zanza, perhaps it was...Reality?

The Spain bailout announcement results in the markets going yaayyPFFT, the Greek elections give EUR/USD a little woody before going flaccid again. It seems as though the "Good News" Viagra could be losing its effectiveness.

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