• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

T-30 Days To 10Y Treasuries Yielding Less Than 1%

Tyler Durden's picture


While many have discussed the extreme analogs of the last few years in equity market performance, few have looked at the relative performance of the most explicitly impacted asset class of Central Bank largesse - the US Treasury bond market. Based on the almost perfect correlation between 2010, 2011, and this year's yield movements over the past few months, traders could be forgiven for considering that the 10-year yield will be below 1% by the end of August - no matter how many times they are told  "but rates cannot fall any more" or this time it's different. One has to wonder just how long the Fed can control this herding of cats (by forcing everyone to front-run it) and what the hyper-inflating solution to asset-deflation expectations will look like this time.

Absolute performance of 10Y Treasury yields for each of the last 3 years...


Charts: Bloomberg

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Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:00 | 2641133 SHEEPFUKKER

This shit is beyond stupid. 

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:19 | 2641166 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

You know it's bad when the guy fucking sheep thinks your debt instrument is retarded

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:48 | 2641208 knukles
knukles's picture

Butchakno, ya just gotta love it.
Where else do the IMF and Greece both try to throw the other out of the house, screaming and yelling, throwing china and slamming doors, threatening to kill one another in their sleep, scaring the holy shit out of the neighbors, acting like Italian Gypsies and still, you can buy 10 years yielding more than 1%.


There's a prize in every box.
Except my Cheetos.


Munis, long treasuries and bullion, bitchez

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:17 | 2641438 economics9698
economics9698's picture

I think I will stock up on ammo and food and pass on the bubble.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 02:08 | 2641676 redpill
redpill's picture

Bonds are not bonds anymore, now they are just currency for pull.  Term, yield, doesn't matter.

“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors – when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – you may know that your society is doomed.”


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 06:06 | 2641777 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

  Tulip Bulbs

  U.S. Treasuries/bonds

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 08:23 | 2641959 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

You can eat Tulip Bulbs.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:17 | 2641441 Popo
Popo's picture

How many times have you heard Bernanke talk about the Great Depression?

Now ask yourself: How many times have you heard him talk about Weimar Germany?

We are so fucked.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:24 | 2641454 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Freidman really performed a mind fuck on that boy.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:54 | 2641483 nmewn
nmewn's picture

(Humping debt monetarist legs everywhere)

lol...suppose there was a hyperinflationary event and the people didn't participate?

You're a dentist who likes omelets for breakfast, I got a bum tooth and have chickens...did my bum tooth get in the way of actual commerce & credit as we know it today or did the egg come first?

Fucking eggheads, ya gotta love em ;-)


Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:48 | 2641543 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

well yields on the solvent eu government debt is currently negative so one might be cautious about saying "never" with regard to lower u.s. tsy yields.

for some real insight:  http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120723.htm

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 23:25 | 2641591 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I didn't know the EU had any solvency at all...lol...some countries by themselves, yes.

Having said that, I have always respected Hussman's opinion.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 23:09 | 2641567 knukles
knukles's picture

Actually Uncle Milton is spinning over in his grave at The Bernak's, who by the way is a fucking Keynesian (with next to no respect for monetarism of the Old School nee Freidman and Schwartz) who specialized in the study of the Great Depression.
Please, the Bernak is just about as far removed from classical monetarism as he is from the Austrian school.
Uncle Milty would never, ever have suggested flooding the banking system as has been done to wit; unnecessary liquidity as evidenced by excess reserves.
Nor would Milt concur with the Kelptocratic marriage between Gubamint and Big Funance in any way, shape or form as it's antithetical to classical free market philosophy (as should, would or could have ever been imagined) close to that imagined by the likes of Von Mises, et al ref: Notes and Recollections, 1978, Libertarian Press, amongst others.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 00:01 | 2641613 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Spot on.

To say, that Friedman, who actually despised the Fed as an entity of control of the nations money supply would approve of the expotential "creation" of money as a salve, a bandage, to the wound of financial malfeseance by pols & their cronies, is to misunderstand what population growth and money supply is.

Money creation is not or should not be the domain of banks. It is not there to save or protect banks. Its to conduct commerce. Commerce doesn't need banks.

Damned pollyansih Fabians...


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 00:35 | 2641633 Socialized Losses
Socialized Losses's picture

ahh grasshopper clever insight +1

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:21 | 2641167 BandGap
BandGap's picture

There was a time I thought I could fucking retire at 54. Part of my stupid fucking plan was getting a yield of 4-6% on bonds at this point (plan made 12 years ago). I can find a job pretty easily due to my skill set, but this working past 62 is pure crap. Fuck, fuck, fuck.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:22 | 2641170 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

There was a time I thought I could fucking retire....

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:27 | 2641180 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Buy and hold mucho Silver young man...simple as that.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:51 | 2641217 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I do. I also have 500 50 mg sudenifil citrate tablets as barter.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:05 | 2641499 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You planned to retire?...lol.

Remember, you didn't build any of that, someone else did that for you, its theirs ;-)

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:08 | 2641503 mcguire
mcguire's picture

barter viagra? thats your plan???

not bad, actually.. 

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:48 | 2641544 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Think about it, really. There is no broader appeal and no cheaper form of drug/entertainment. They don't bribe fringe Taliban leaders with money, BTW. They use the blue persuasion.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 23:15 | 2641579 flacon
flacon's picture

Go long suicide pills. ... or long high bridges and rope. 

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 23:17 | 2641581 flacon
flacon's picture

Sorry... just being morbid, but I can't see the baby boomers, M*A*S*H / Gilligan's Island watchers wanting to survive what is coming.... 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 00:29 | 2641631 HD
HD's picture

The M*A*S*H theme song was "Suicide is Painless"...


Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:46 | 2641204 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

There was a time I thought I could phuck. What was the question again?

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:23 | 2641451 economics9698
economics9698's picture

When will you retire?  For me I would rather gang bang in my old age I always like kos.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 20:46 | 2641386 ljag
ljag's picture

In 1998, I re-entered the world 40k in debt. I worked as a plumber until I finally started my own biz but still never made more than 60k per yr. I retired last year and bought my retirement home for cash. I bot monster boxes when they were 15k.......end of story.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:47 | 2641210 q99x2
Sun, 07/22/2012 - 23:06 | 2641565 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

CM is a lovely old city and I plan to return soon...what brought it up in this discussion?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 05:07 | 2641756 GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...........................keep it quiet.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:38 | 2641192 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Bernanke's 100-round drum magazine is about 10 seconds from jamming.

(too soon?)



Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:39 | 2641471 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture


Sun, 07/22/2012 - 23:31 | 2641583 flacon
flacon's picture

Phully Automatic? What's that you say?

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:07 | 2641137 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

T-30 days for US debt to exceed $16 trillion and US unfunded liabilities to exceed $120.3 trillion.  That should go well with under 1% ten year yields.

When markets are manipulated, they don't make sense.  Gold should be skyrocketing but it will be held down.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 20:05 | 2641238 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

once yields are driven sufficiently negative, we're going to borrow ourselves into solvency

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:38 | 2641527 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Shhh...another tree just fell

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:36 | 2641531 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Someone say Exter's Pyramid...thought so

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 20:30 | 2641337 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Two weeks more

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:06 | 2641141 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hands down, owning U.S. "Paper" has been the greatest wealth building decision ever made the last 35-years.


No other asset class in world history has had a bull market that has lasted this long.

The Chinese, Japanese, U.K., etc. must be relishing in the fantastic gains they have made by dollar cost averaging, month in, month out for 30+ years and right now 100% of their purchases are currently in a winning position, even the panic buyers during the 2008 financial crisis have healthy profits now.

With the U.S. Dollar surging to boot.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:09 | 2641147 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

and it will end in spectacular fashion

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:16 | 2641155 AUD
AUD's picture

You evidently haven't seen a graph of the US $ gold price going back 35 years. Nor do you seem to realise that you are measuring your wealth building against the same thing you are saying is building your wealth.

You'll be like those starving billionaires in Zimbabwe.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:47 | 2641207 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

I did swtich my 403b over to bonds about nine months ago. While everyone else bitches about their balance going down, my balance has actually gone up. But I feel a helluva lot better about the previous 403b that I cashed out, taking the penalty. Back in 2009 all that went into silver with a little gold to go along. We're doing ok on that too. Theere are exactly as many ounces now as there were when I bought them...

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:53 | 2641221 AUD
AUD's picture

Nor do you seem to realise that you are measuring your wealth building against the same thing you are saying is building your wealth.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:58 | 2641227 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

AUD it parallels the idea of a goldfish having a 3 second memory

"This is a nice bowl. It's kind of small...holy shit I think I am stuck in here....HEY HEY!! GET ME OUTTA HERE!!...This is a nice bowl..."


Sun, 07/22/2012 - 20:33 | 2641352 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

4 second memories are totally overrated

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:16 | 2641161 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

US paper, the next mega-bubble to pop and it will be the greatest wealth-destroyer in current times. Backed by the full 16 trillion dollar US debt and
empty vaults in Fort Knox that once contained 8000 tons of gold bullion. Robotard, your Lululemon body tights are cutting off circulation to your cranium again...

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:27 | 2641179 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Can't you picture what Robot's posts would be like in 2000 when the Nasdaq hit 5k?

"Tech stocks are killing it again. Anyone looking to short at these all time high's are gonna learn you don't fight this trend. Tech is the future. AOL and Lucent are the future. Redhat too. Look at gold sitting at all time low's. I bet some suckers try to go long here and get stuck selling this dead money trade in a week"

 - March 10 2000

(My best guess)

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 19:43 | 2641199 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

I wish I could give you more than just a measly green arrow for this post. 

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 22:17 | 2641510 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

robotrader was born in 2000

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