T-30 Days To 10Y Treasuries Yielding Less Than 1%
While many have discussed the extreme analogs of the last few years in equity market performance, few have looked at the relative performance of the most explicitly impacted asset class of Central Bank largesse - the US Treasury bond market. Based on the almost perfect correlation between 2010, 2011, and this year's yield movements over the past few months, traders could be forgiven for considering that the 10-year yield will be below 1% by the end of August - no matter how many times they are told "but rates cannot fall any more" or this time it's different. One has to wonder just how long the Fed can control this herding of cats (by forcing everyone to front-run it) and what the hyper-inflating solution to asset-deflation expectations will look like this time.
Absolute performance of 10Y Treasury yields for each of the last 3 years...