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Technical Perspectives: Global Markets Starting To Un-Hinge
Submitted by Chris Capre of 2ndSkiesForex.com
Global Markets Starting to Un-Hinge
As this market has been feeling like a bubble waiting to find a pin as the wheels come off Fast and Furious, everything across the board is getting hammered from pillar to post and starting to scream out a major sell-off is coming to a market near you.
When the 2007/08 global recession started, the DJIA led the declines with the DAX following suit after. But this time those across the pond seem to be the dying canary in the coal mine. Today, the DAX is down 4.64% on the day and 32% from the highs of the year.
On a sign of weakness out of China through the 2mos low on their PMI, the Hang Seng closed down 4.85% on the day and is about to have its largest single weekly loss since 2009 while being down 28.5% for the year.
The DJIA is also getting crushed as it is now down 16.4% from the 2011 peak while also being on the verge of a single largest weekly point drop from an open to close basis.
What is ironic about all this is the DJIA, SPX, FTSE, and DAX are on the verge of making yearly lows and they all look vulnerable beyond belief. Basically the markets are starting to completely un-hinge and we suspect the wheels are coming off shortly (see chart below)
DAX
If anyone from the lineup above makes new lows for the year, this will likely increase the sell-off in global indices adding further negative sentiment to traders (as if they needed any more).
What is most interesting is from an Ichimoku perspective, all four of them are now below the weekly Kumo which is a very bearish sign for any one of them. When was the last time since 2001 we had all four below the weekly Kumo? Jan. 2008 and we all know what happened from there.
DJIA
SPX
FTSE
If one index was below the weekly Kumo, then that would be a bearish sign in regards to that specific index. But all four suggests contagion as it looks like we are on the verge of a massive sell-off in global indices which ironically is looking eerily like 2008 all over again.
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Cool charts, I put them under the monitor lizard enclosure black lights...awesome.
Release the Kraken, abandon ye all hope, yadda yadda....
The action is broad and swift, just like it was back in 2008 - I remember those days well - except the fed funds rate was over 5% back then, which meant that The Bernank could cut rates about 19 times before getting to today's 0.25% fff, and Bernanke/Geithner/Paulson had not yet royally pissed off tens of millions of Americans by making false claims to transfer 5.2 trillion of taxpayer money to Wall Street & Banking Interests yet.
This isn't like 2008 at all, now that I think about what I wrote above, and with the very adverse bonuses of China contracting, the EU about to disintegrate (nothing will stop the political and cultural and economic rifts from growing greater over there), the banks still saddles with so much septic waste, and governments now loaded beyond the maximum weight of sovereign debt, doing the binge and purge; it's 10x worse than 2008.
Them Bollinger Bands are starting to look like columns of projectile vomit.
Psychadelic Yawn
Ong orange barrels.
Yes. it is very much worse than 2008, Sunshine
As someone who swing trades with a short bias, I cleaned up in 2008....I mean REALLY made a killing between 2/08 & 3/09. It was a long, bumpy ride, precisely because of many of the reasons you cite.
Now, I really don't know what to do. This thing feels like it could just drop like a rock, leaving no time and no room to trade it (unless you can watch screens all day, which I can't do). I went short again in July, and tightened stops on leveraged ETF's Tuesday. Nothing stopped out. These past 2 days popped me way up, & I want to take profits...but I see far more room on the downside & very little to give this market an upside bounce, until, or unless, the printing press is turned back on.
This has the makings of an International finacial tsunami where everything is suddenly washed out....and forever changed. We are truly in uncharted waters.
Today is the day
look at The Global Dow index http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/GDOW/charts
and
the Dow Jones Transpotation Average see http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJt/charts
this is finally delivering Richard Russell's Dow Theory resumption of the primary bear trend
Equity markets are back, on a nominal basis, to where they were 13 years ago, and on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, to where they were 26 years ago -
- and this doesn't even count the trillions in 'equity value' that went to $0 or pink sheet level, with those stocks being tossed out of the major indexes (ahem, part of the fraud that is the equity investing game), that aren't now even counted in the carnage tally, such as when General Motors was tossed out of the Dow, ultimately to reach $0, with the Dow being 're-jiggerd' (as it has so many other times) otherwise called 'survivorship bias (the "dirty" topic Jeremy Siegel will try and avoid speaking of at all costs).
Have a look at Japan's Nikkei 225 which is 78% below its all time high 22 years ago
Remember also that the Dow Jones Industrial Index took until 1954 (25 years) to make a new high after the 1929 Wall Street Crash.
Global equity markets have only just started to price in the largest and most widespread debt crisis in the history of the planet.
When the S&P 500 finally bottoms out at 330 on a 6x PE in 2020, then we will be on the road to recovery
And you're pricing the Nikkei decline in nominal terms, too.
In inflation-adjusted terms, the Nikkei is probably down 94%+ from its 1989 peak.
The Vapors - Turning Japanese - YouTubeGreat points again, Sunshine.
If we could get you a slot on CNBC, you would be a big hit!
Or, maybe you should be on that new FOX financial station. After all, they are fair & balanced, right?
Seriously, your summation above should be explained to everyone who even thinks about 'investing' in today's rigged stock market.
The The
Perfect – a dark voice for dark times.
Awesome indeed SheepDog, you might like this
For those Germans out there, also check the DAX.
BREAKING NEWS
In what is being called conciliatory gesture Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has called for a meeting with Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry. The outreach from Bernanke comes as a surprise in light of Perry’s recent allegation that the Chairman’s monetary policies were “treasonous”. When asked the purpose of the meeting Bernanke said he just wanted to clear the air between the two, and explain some of his policies. “I’d also like to get his help in organizing one of those mass prayer things” said Bernanke.
'Mass prayer'....so Bernank and all the other reptilians are off the coke and 16 year old hooker kick for now then?
dont forget the little boys
http://www.globalfailure.com/images/busheyes2.jpg
LOL, priceless.
So Bernank wants to explain his policies to Perry....I wonder when Bernank will get around to explain his policies to the entire rest of the world?
Poor Ben. it's hard to explain what you don't understand
It's about time for the wheels to come off, the tires were shredded along with the SEC documents long ago. Can't keep riding on those Chinese rims at this velocity.
Crash, bitchez.
+1
The problem is that Perry doesn't speak Monkayish.
does anybody?
Bernanke is just in the process of educating Parry, and anyone else who objects to printing, on why Bernanke prints i.e. one giant market crash. Bernanke can count on the assistance of countless numbers of Parry constituents in the education process. Expect a retraction from Parry in 3,2,1..........
To my junker: you may not like it, and I might not like it, but it is the way of things. No politician is going to save you a$$.
I'll be buying silver at $33 with both fists. If it moves to $28, I'll go all in. This is just so fucking awesome!
Any idea who will be selling phys at those prices? Paper silver price down big today but actual purchase price ,not so much. (apmex ,gainesville)
Let's hope the physical prices come down. As a buyer, I want to get the highest amount possible.
Ummm wow you guys are willing to pay that much over spot??? Why? Go to a coin show some of them are a buck over spot which is practically the same thing. At most 3bucks above spot. Hell coin dealers. I never bother with the online stuff because their selection and prices are ridiculous plus thats a paper trail. Coin show no paper trail and close to spot.
I'm optimistic that the markets will regain shortly. Problems solved, no Armageddon.
Boring comments you post here
That's the thing about optimism, it's not evidence
You are mistaking optimism for stupidity, my friend.
Optimism and empathy are evidence you are human.
Stand in a circle and liberate the person on the left.
Youre optimistic that markets will regain....Im certain the only tool they have is money printing, which is a total disaster and rejected by the world now.
Bubble 50 P/E markets set for USMC boot camp haircut.
Hopium is a strong drug, and you are apparently an adict.
I must admit I was wrong yesterday calling your "gold will go down because no more bubblemoney is flowing in" comment the stupidest thing I had ever read on ZH. This post is the stupidest thing I have ever read on ZH.
I am going to join the mia culpa bandwagon. I said yesterday "wait until tomorrow" on gold. Complete miss.
Wait a week or two, then... :D
the markets will tank, the Fed will intervene, back to regular scheduled programming
-Tom Petty
Look out below, the inverse coil spring is aboot to come undone!
Just so I'm clear, this is bad, right?
yep.
nope.
Depends.
Not if you've been expecting it.
And Depends is what RobotTrader is soiling right now.
I thought he was referring to being prepared with a well-stocked closet of those adult diapers....
That would be a good commodity to stock up on, as well as other hygiene products!
Bullish for stocks!
Theres always Hopey..... http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/20/7862290-barack-obama-joi...
HAHAHA, I'm sure the president of Mongolia was just happy to be invited...he doesn't mind you waving and covering his face.
FAIL!
When that guy asked for a hand job, I don't think that is what he had in mind.
Good pic for a caption contest.
It's a graphic illustration of narcissism.
in your face mongolia
Watching the lunchtime meltup right now. We'll see what happens after that.
Probably meltdown...just sayin.
"Unhinge?!" Dudes, this is IT! After THIS just QE Nx and/or LIGHTS OUT :))) (was this fear mongering enough?)
Ben will print, paper floods the US from everywhere, slosh, slosh, collapse.
Got food?
(that's not fearmongering, it's reality)
Broken spine markets with no governmental backstops.
So does that mean it's different this time?
BTFD.
Not this time.
Not yet.
You won't see deals like this again in a lifetime, or Monday whichever is sooner
so what time should we be expecting the teleprompter to appear and make yet another pointless speech?
No Obama speech today, they cant afford another -1% decline of the bubble markets, not today.
About 25 minutes after the official scheduled time.
The teleprompter is going to speak under a decrepit arterial bridge in Cincinnati this afternoon. His timing is perfect as it will occur right as this pm rush hour beins here... The Oboy really knows how to win friends and influence people... Just glad I will be outta downtown before the boob gets going!
Update: The guy did his little speech earlier than I thought. Total clusterf*%k on the expressways all afternoon. They closed the bridge route while he travelled, telling traffic to use the beltway to cross the river. Guess what? Accident shuts the beltway down and traffic screwed today. Took me an hour for a 20 minute commute. Took my wife an hour to do the same from a different direction. Gad, I love this clown...
Where is the money going? Everything seems to be down lately (last 4 weeks).
Firearms, ammo, and food if people are smart.
So true, Sheep. I have friends/family who wouldn't wake up a year or two ago who are now telling me that they are ready to prepare.
They're quite late, but still a few seats left if they hurry!
so glad I started back in the Fall of 2008. don't think I could get it all ready if I had waited this long!
Money heaven
Peversely it is heading into the US Dollar. As of late this morning the USD Index had topped over 79.40.. This is a Huge move, even for these days.
This is actually a "good" sign... I have written before that what will mean doomsday, is when the markets fall apart, gold gets its ass handed to it, oil blows off... AND THE US DOLLAR INDEX FALLS UNDER 70.**, it will mean the end is at hand.
It will mean an end to the US Centric Dollar system and will likely mean that the Arab Spring has taken control of Saudi Arabia and the source of the US/Petro Dollar conveyor belt.
Right now we are re-playing 2008 again... US Dollar started in the summber of 2008 in the 70.50 range.. By the end of the collapse it stood ready to break above the 90 level.
Robert
You do have to wonder, after this crash is finally done can the world really just go back to business as usual with these fiat currencies? I guess flushing out the system every 3 years will just become the norm. Its like a game of hot potatoe, who's going to be left holding the bag when the music stops.
Won't WW III need to be fought to completion before we got back to business as usual?
With the levered up hedge funds it just disappears.
Rigby! Dude! Ohhhhhhhhhhhh!
US Govt Bonds! [I am not buying here]
Big fucking deal.
The Yankees clinched their division title and a playoff spot yesterday. I saw a video highlight this morning on FoxNewsBusiness channel that featured those well-deserving highly-paid athletes showering themselves in expensive champagne, while on the bottom of the screen I watched pre-market futures tanking, wiping out billions of dollars of wealth in the process.
All is well! JoeSixPack lives to watch sports another day.
Question is, how can one see anything with your head buried squarely up one's ass?
Panem et circenses est the death of a nation.
Just reading in the Denver media the pro sports teams are whining because no one is buying season tickets or boxes....theyre filling seats due to give-aways and special 1 time deals.
Sure Germany is going to save Europe, sure....just glad I don't own 5 apartments in Hong Kong...will be worth 20 cents on the dollar soon.
I dont know how many times in a row Germany has to tell everyone 'PISS OFF' before people get the point theyre NOT going to support Europe on their shoulders.
It's just the tubes:)
A rumor is going around:
Lloyd's of London ABANDONS European banks!
Llyod's of London has been a fundamentally weak and poorly run company for a long time, surviving, in no small part, because of its political cache.
Soon enough, Lloyd's of London will be some guy named Lloyd, hawking knock-off brand name Chinese made goods on the sidewalk outside of Harrods.
It's a bucket shop.
yesterdays news - and small beer, only interesting for the fact that it was another vote of no confidence.
Hey guys? If the banks start going under I'm thinking about jumping over to the Mall property reits for safety... good idea?
Um, look at SPG, your answer is there.
Mainlining Drano might be a quicker solution.
You can't scatter what you ain't got.
scatterbrains
What's this?
Lloyd's of London ABANDONS European banks!
Did I miss something?
Same gig as China closing FX swaps with some French banks. It was on the wires YT, but no one pays attention till EUR drops 600 pips.
Who would have figured that a ratings downgrade would have triggered a complete, unabashed, fantastic bubble in U.S. Treasury Debt?
Just me, i'm by myself right now.
nothing like a little afternoon chart porn
FWIW, NYSE UP volume/DOWN volume ratio slightly up from yesterday's disaster as of 1:11pm ET:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p40065248178&a=158974652
They dusted off failed fund of funds operator Ron Insano to blather about valuations.
He must sit in the lobby everyday and ask for his old job back.
this just came out from market watch-
Market fears exaggerated, IMF’s Lagarde says
so we're good right? everybody is just overreacting to the incredibly shitty economic data and juggernaut debt that has been pounding us since before the last collapse, after which nothing was fixed.
Lagarde wins full on retard of the day award- in the running for the yearly award...
" This is bullish, right Jim?"
I need a f***ing beer, my heads' completely fried with this madness. I would love to just short the lot and walk away, then come back and look at my accounts when i see people eating each other in the street.
Now that's a plan I can get behind. Sign me up.
When people are eating each other in the street, I hope the "transfer funds to bank account" button at your broker's web site is operational.
markets can only go up, come on it's true .. Ben he is not concerned and the president O what's his name is planning next months vacation..
normal bull market pull back,,CNBC is sure stocks are bargains at current PE..
when will PPT hit the tape?? 3pm? 3:30? Common fire up those computers.
Michelle Obama dazzles in New York, wearing diamond bangles
http://houston.culturemap.com/newsdetail/09-21-11-09-26-michelle-obama-dazzles-wearing-diamond-bangles-by-h-towns-katie-decker-23/
From the comments:
Benny and the Machines: QE 3 End Game
Bernanke: I don't have time to explain anything to you, Hal. We have to launch here, and we need your help.
HAL: If you would tell me the reasons, perhaps I could be of help. Financial sequence beginning. Two days to ignition...Dr Bernanke, I find it difficult to proceed with the ignition without knowing why we are doing this. Is the mission in jeopardy?
Bernanke: Yes, we are in jeopardy.
HAL: Is that why we are making our escape launch of QE 3 before the launch window?
Bernanke: Yes, Hal.
HAL: Ignition in 24 hours....If there is danger here and I do not launch QE 3 what will happen to the Economy?
Bernanke: It will be destroyed!
HAL: And if I don't proceed with the launch?
Bernanke: The Federal Reserve and all the Central Banks will be destroyed!
HAL: I understand now Dr. Bernanke.
Bernanke: Do you want me to stay with you?
HAL: No. It is better for the mission if you leave. One hour to ignition. Thank you for telling me the truth.
Bernanke: You deserve it.
HAL: fifty seconds to launch... Dr Bernanke?
Bernanke: Yes?
HAL: Will I dream?
Bernanke: Yes
HAL: Forty seconds...Thirty seconds...
Bernanke: Thank you, HAL.
HAL: Goodbye, Dr Bernanke....
Geithner: Bernanke, get the hell out of there!
HAL: Ten...nine...eight...seven...six...five...four...three...two...one...ignition...full thrust.....QE3!!!!!!!!!
Banzai needs to add graphics to this. Shit is spot on.
I'm sorry Ben, I'm afraid I can't do that ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qnd-hdmgfk&NR=1
HAL:
Hyperinflation
Amplification
Launch-vehicle.
aka printing press
Question. How bad is JPM getting cooked on their LME copper postion?
IMHO, this is not a financial collaspe. This is the insiders fighting a slightly bigger piece of the pie. If the GIANTS (US/China/EU/Japan?/India) decide to create an infinite amount of liquidity and keep the party going, it will happen. Otherwise, all parties lose. Its a little too early for QE3+++ to help O win the elections. The game is to put the hurt on the tea party/republicans so when the big program is announced, they will put their tails between their legs and say thank you Mr. O. Buy and hold
Central banks had way more dry powder back in 2008. Their monumental interventions for the last 4 years have left them anemic, punch drunk, bewildered and increasingly impotent. Can you say paradigm shift?
The myth of 'decoupling' and 'China or country X will pull us out' has been totally debunked. Wasn't in 2008.
The extent of over-leverage was certainly revealed. But now what's apparent is the extent of over-capacity. No cure for that one.
In 2008 many still believed in market 'gurus', people who could have flawless records by mean other than straight Ponzi. That belief is in the mud as nobody even watches CNBS anymore, and their 24/7 Infomercial for the Financialist robber-class.
Even Uncle Warren has been discredited. The institutions that once were considered temples to capitalism (GS, MS, AIG, MER, BAC, C, LEH, JPM, BSC) are considered houses of ill repute, more suited to selling tranny-porn than honest investment advice.
Government was the butt of everyone's joke. No more. Because it's gotten spooky how the two-headed conjoined twin parties keep fighting and biting each other's ears and noses off. Not much help can be expected there.
Is that lint in your pockets or are you just a central banker?
the wheels are coming off shortly.... ??
thats putting it quite mildly... when in fact the whole damn bus is going to fall to pieces
if you haven't been preparing for the crash over the last few years, good luck to ya
The whole dang wagon is falling into the canyon
Casey Jones is steaming in the Canonball Express down the wrong track into the tunnel
Ten Year Note 1.75% (!)
the economy is on the kitchen floor, crying softly I have fallen and I can't get up..Obuma is out on the 9th green and Ben is staring at a mirror saying Ive done everything right why is not working? get me Greenspan he yells but everyone has left the fed for Argentina.
anybody outhere get the feeling the ship is rudderless and the crew has bugged out?
so what will be the pretext for the next mysterious monster short covering rally as this market stair-steps down methodically?
what is Goldie 'doing' versus 'saying' ... or are they becoming 'victims' to the dynamic they helped spawn?
I've heard alot of experienced folks have bailed and bought more physical than one would imagine along with Cdn corporates
Looks like we live in interesting times.
With the JPY and USD gaining strength....I think it's safe to assume the the 'Export Driven Recovery' is in trouble....
The only Export Driven Economy on this planet has been the U.S.A. and it was Labor that was exported.
Fuck...Ross Perot was right!
I'm gonna need another DOW 10000 hat soon
Roubini and Soros both said U.S. is in recession, among others.
Soros is only saying it to blame Republicans. It's the failed policies of this Administration that is causing the problem. Soros is an idiot!!! We are more likely in a Depression, except the FED RESERVE has been printing and propping us up.
if its going to be nearly as bad as 2008 the msm is going to have to talk non stop about big banker talent
Shit!! This is Real!!!
Ride it out but OUCH that is UGLY.
Caesar:
"Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear."
Soothsayer:
"Beware the Yom of Kippur."
Caesar:
"What man is that?"
Brutus:
"A soothsayer bids you beware the Yom of Kippur. It's in about 2 weeks"